ComRes and YouGov both had post-Corbyn polls in the Indy on Sunday/Sunday Mirror and Sunday Times respectively. Tabs are here – Comres, YouGov.

ComRes had topline voting intention figures of CON 42% (+2), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 13%(nc), GRN 3%(-1). Changes are since their August poll and show no obvious impact from Jeremy Corbyn becoming leader.

YouGov had topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 31%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 16%, GRN 3%. YouGov haven’t released voting intention figures since May, but as you can see, the gap between Labour and the Conservatives is barely changed from the election (the difference between the 12 point Tory lead in ComRes and the 8 point Tory lead in YouGov will be at least partially because ComRes have adopted their new socio-economic turnout model, which weights down younger and poorer voters who are historically less likely to vote. YouGov are still reviewing their methods post-election).

YouGov included some more questions about early attitudes towards Jeremy Corbyn. Most people don’t think he has much chance of being Prime Minister (only 14% think it’s likely), but beyond that attitudes are currently quite evenly divided. 30% think he’s strong enough to be a good leader, 41% think he is not.

36% of people agree with the description that Corbyn has dangerous and unworkable views and would be a threat to the economy and national security, but 32% agree with the description that he’s a man of integrity & principle who has caught the mood of people disillusioned by politics. 7% don’t agree with either, 6% agree with both (which is fair enough – one could be a decent and principled man with unworkable and dangerous views!).

YouGov also asked about a list of policies that have been supported by Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell in the past, announced by Corbyn or floated as possible Labour policies. Again, they found a mixed bag. Some, like withdrawal from NATO, negotiating over the Falklands and abolishing the benefit cap are extremely unpopular, but other things like a higher top rate of tax, rent controls and nationalising the utility companies meet with wide public approval.

The rest of ComRes’s poll had bank of favourable/unfavourable opinion questions on leading politicians. Boris Johnson had the most favourable net score of those asked about with plus 8, followed by David Cameron on minus 7, Theresa May (minus 11), Vince Cable (minus 14), George Osborne (minus 17), Jeremy Corbyn (minus 18), Nicola Sturgeon (minus 19), Nick Clegg (minus 27).

Tom Watson actually had a comparatively good score – minus 8 – but on a low number of responses (71% said don’t know or no opinion), Tim Farron and John McDonnell got similarly high don’t knows, though more negative scores. At this stage, the public simply aren’t familiar enough with them to hold any strong positive or negative opinions.

UPDATE: I missed a third national GB poll, Opinium for the Observer. They had topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 32%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%. Opinium also included a best PM question (Cameron 41%, Corbyn 22%) and had some figures on whether Labour under Corbyn could win that were a little more optimistic for them – 32% think Labour could definitely or probably win under Corbyn, 55% though they probably or definitely could not. Tabs are here.


345 Responses to “Latest ComRes and YouGov polls”

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  1. No obvious impact?

    You mean apart from the 12 point lead?

    You must remember that he was certain to win for some time in advance so most of the shift happened then.

  2. All ComRes’s polls since the election have shown that sort of lead, including in late May before Corbyn had even announced his candidacy.

  3. It’s apparent from the YG questions that Labour needs to find a way of shifting the focus of print media reports from tittle-tattle to policy.

  4. No mention of Opinium or the ICM poll on marginal seats!

  5. RAF,

    Yes. A good way to achieve that goal would have been to elect Kendall, or even Cooper/Burnham, as leader.

  6. @MITM

    Comres polls since the election, in order, lab score
    29
    [corbyn nominated]
    27
    [corbynmania begins]
    28
    29
    28
    [corbyn elected]
    30

  7. Amazingly low score for Sturgeon.

  8. Ed Miliband gave Labour about a 2% bounce according to Yougov. However, I suspect it’s hard to entangle “honeymoon” bounces from “leadership contest coverage” bounces. Labour have had much of the last few months of political coverage devoted to them, with opportunities to present their views to the general public and to criticise the government without reply, in addition to the Tories apparently deliberately flying under the radar.

    The Tories enjoyed a similar situation in late 2005, with Cameron providing roughly the same bounce to them as Ed Miliband did.

    Labour have not had a comparable bounce or general benefit this time around but it’s too difficult to disentangle why: it may be negative coverage or it may be that their leadership contest this time was so close to the GE, and thus during the Tories’ own post-election honeymoon.

  9. @BP

    Well, if that was all Labour had to do they I would agree with you. However, making the media focus on minute policy differences (Kendall/Cameron) wouldn’t have taken Labour very far

  10. (I didn’t mean to ascribe a causal claim to Yougov. I should have said “Labour’s VI increased about 2% after Miliband became leader.)

  11. Firstly apologies if during this post you detect a sense of digression ,rambling or incoherence as at this time I’m in somewhat of a spin whilst trying to attune myself to the radically aligned political landscape so here it goes. In regards to the matter of the dismayed 14% I guess I could place myself within this section of the labour movement but I would note that the word dismayed as rather simplistic as over the preceding months I’ve experienced numerous moods and emotions such as despair , bemusement , anger , a sense of loss , resignation , dread , intrigue and even a quiet hopefulness , I suspect that a higher proportion than the one in seven tallied in this particular poll have or are experiencing these kinds of feelings. For example one of my oldest friends a staunch trade unionist and lifelong labour supporter is if anything even more hostile and disapproving to Mr Corbyn and according to him many of his work colleagues in the post office are of a similar attitude . Now i have to ask if people like my friend and his ilk are seriously doubting there loyalties to a Corbyn led labour party and then consider that for labour to have any realistic chance of a majority they would have take largely conservative marginal seats which are more than likely to be even more numerous after boundary changes how can this be achieved by a increasingly hard left membership party and a hollowing out of its right and centre.one more point I would conjecture would be labour at it’s core is a composite of many philosophies and ideologies not just Marxist but also union ,Chartist , Fabien , Progressive , Social Democrat etc. I assume Mr Corbyn is aware of this and I hope he doesn’t fall in to the temptation to force thru policy which are proven election loser and highly divisive amongst his fellow m.p by the way of his highly motivated mass of radical left recent converts to his cause . After all are we not the labour party not the Corbyn movement?

  12. @Tris
    Sturgeon’s score in the Scottish crossbreaks is +38%. The score AW mentions is meaningless as it is the opinion of the whole UK and people that have no relevance to Sturgeon or the SNP. It is another example of a bad poll question being spun by the Media (SkyNews) and AW himself in that article to a bad SNP story when in actual fact, Sturgeon is +38% to the guy that has just become PM’s +1%

  13. @Mark Sadler

    Firstly, I would not fret so much. There is much more to life than politics, and sometimes political movements come and go, regardless.

    I don’t think the Labour Party has been taken over the ‘hard left’ (whatever that really means). In my view, the election of Mr Corbyn was the result of the centre of the Labour Party (which includes much of the PLP) completely over-estimating their influence, when it has been clear for many years from the outside that this influence was declining.

    A large part of every section of the membership preferred Mr Corbyn’s message that was hopeful, idealistic and did not denigrate personally the other candidates. Liz, Andy and Yvette never really got off the starting blocks, and their message simply did not carry. Too much time was spent warning of the doom of Corbyn, rather than promoting a positive message of their own.

    In fairness, Jeremy’s Shadow Cabinet comes from all parts of the party, and he is quite clearly not a big ‘I am’, egotistical leader at all. He seems to want genuine internal party democracy. If this says Labour should stay with NATO, without a doubt I think JC will accept that democratic decision, for example.

    I fear the biggest obstacle to Labour progressing are the parts of the PLP who are miffed at losing, and seem keen to try to either hinder JC, or simply stand back and hope he fails. What they forget is that if they are seen to betray or not support the leader substantially backed by the party membership, that membership might just walk.

    Perhaps the PLP want a small party, where the PLP and hierachy call all the shots. Maybe they don’t want too much internal party democracy. This is the polar opposite of JC’s idea of a mass movement.

    Like I say, cheer up. It will be a very interesting ride for a few years. Where it goes, I don’t have a clue….

    :)

  14. Thank-you for your reassurances Catmanjeff and in turn I can assure you that I have no plans to rid myself of this world anytime soon ! And I can also assure you that I do have interest and concerns other than the fate of the labour movement . Has I’ve commented in previous post I accept and to a degree agree that labour needed to realign itself to a more defined leftist position I just feel that in straining to reach said position they elected a person wholly unsuitable to high office and with the memberships enthusiastic craving and endorsement of Mr Corbyn’s anti-austerity stance they have either chosen to overlook his somewhat problematic views in regards to foreign policy and security or actually endorse them which I would suggest are greatly out of tune with the general electorate.

  15. I think first they want the Labour Party back, then can come the process of building a new leadership for the next stage. I reckon this is Corbyn’s view too.

  16. @Joe

    I agree with you.

    The task at hand for Labour is not to elect the next PM in waiting, but address what it really stands for in the second decade of the 21st Century.

    This will involve a few years of thinking, debates and engaging with the public.

    Once this is done, they can think about who can polish these ideas and present them to the electorate.

  17. A plasterer who was working on Mrs Haines kitchen, told me the other day what he thought of the Labour leader. I have to tell you it was not good. After a few enquiries from me regarding his very negative views, I realised he was talking about Edward Miliband.
    After the polling debacle at the GE, can a large percentage of the public’s political knowledge be taken seriously.

  18. My Scotty-centric take on the ComRes politician ratings:

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/2015/09/pointless-polling-cabinet-mapping/

  19. Joe and CMJ

    If what you say is true (and it seems quite feasible) then the recent LibDem comment about an exodus of the right of the Labour party to join them may have something in it.

  20. @Mark Sadler

    IMO The Labour Party gave up on the 2020 election straight after losing the 2015 election. They resigned themselves to losing in 2020, maybe in shock and grief and failed to put up their best candidates for leader. And there was no need to give up so easily, as the polls pointed to Ed being a drag and a stronger, more charismatic leader would significantly improve their chances.

    So Chukka Umanna pulled out, Dan Jarvis didn’t stand and David M didn’t return from over the water, leaving three candidates none of whom convinced as potential 2020 winners. So people latched onto Corbyn, as a ‘hail Mary pass’.

    Now the Labour movement is in real danger, the Trade Union bill will make it difficult to get funding, although the large influx of new members can help with that, but the MSM and the Tories now see their chance to destroy Labour.

    Labour’s best hope is that, Corbyn at some point stands down and a credible popular leader emerges in Labour’s hour of need, like what happened after John Smith died in 1994 when Tony Blair stepped up. There are some in the shadow cabinet such as Keir Stammer that are possibilities.

    In other Labour news, Scottish Labour is no longer a solely unionist party and will allow members to campaign and support independence which is quite a significant move.

  21. The months go by, the polls accumulate, and still no swingometer or voting intention.

  22. @Pete B

    Given the tensions within the Labour Party (critically PLP vs membership), and the aftermath of the Lib Dem 2015 annihilation, I would not be surprised to see something entirely new emerge on the centre left.

  23. @STATGEEK

    “…My Scotty-centric take on the ComRes politician ratings: http://www.statgeek.co.uk/2015/09/pointless-polling-cabinet-mapping/ …”

    Very interesting as ever, thank you

  24. CMJ
    If either of those scenarios happens, then Labour as we know it may well be the largest opposition party for many years to come, but will be unlikely to have a clear majority on its own.

  25. Like Tris I was amazed by the low score for Sturgeon, who was presented by the media throughout the election as the darling of the country.( is there a breakdown for Scotland?) My assumption is that she may be popular in Scotland but the English see her as a threat. I’d be interested to hear people’s views. (I will admit I always found her a pretty dull speaker).

    As for Corbyn today’s headlines cannot help. I have a feeling Tony Blair is going to be be proved right and he is going to be so disorganized that he will be the gift that just goes on giving for the Tory press, or in fact all the press for no newspaper can ignore a chaotic political campaign. This is not to say he is not a decent guy, just a rather incompetent politician and yes I know his supporters like that but their problem is incompetent politicians are full of inconsistencies which will be seized upon, how could it be otherwise?

  26. @John
    “( is there a breakdown for Scotland?) ”

    Yes, see statgeeks’ site posted up thread. Particularly this.

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/netfav.png

    She’s extremely popular up there.

  27. Polling companies have got a cheek asking people in the rest of the UK for their views on Nicola Sturgeon!
    It’s got nothing to do with them and, in any case, as a leader of the SNP she is above criticism.

  28. @Valerie

    Ask, away. Criticise where appropriate, but include Leanne Wood, Peter Robinson and Gerry Adams.

    No Farage or Bennett either. No comparison between Corbyn and Miliband too.

  29. Aye Statgeek
    Scotland for the Scots.
    Sassenachs should keep their nebs out.

  30. @Valerie

    It is certainly not appropriate to include Sturgeon’s score as comparable with the UK politicians’ scores, when she only stands in Scotland. However, it makes no difference to the reality that her popularity, in her country, far outflank any UK politician.

    Let’s look at the Scottish YouGov with the properly weighed sample:

    Doing Well = 67%
    Doing Badly = 28%
    Net = +39%

    Contrast with Cameron at Net = -33 (Scotland) +1(UK)

  31. People are, as I suspected, seriously trying to spin three polls showing Labour have made no progress since a very poor GE despite just electing a new leader with 60% of the vote as somehow quite good. Cameron and even Miliband achieved leads on becoming party leader.

  32. I think people are being too argumentative regarding Sturgeon being asked about on a UK-wide basis.

    It’s useful to know how popular Sturgeon is with the rUK as well as in Scotland, because Labour have no realistic prospect of power for the forseeable future (insofar as it is forseeable!) except in an arrangement with the SNP. It’s also important not to make a general judgement about Sturgeon’s charisma etc. based on this polling. However, these are compatible positions.

  33. @Bill Patrick

    Absolutely. She is the leader of the UK’s third largest parliamentary party, and the prospect of the SNP holding the balance of power has not gone away. It is therefore important to get an indication of how she is perceived by non-Scots as well as Scots. The answer remains, as it was at the GE, not very well.

  34. Statgeek,

    Great analysis, but I’ll pick up on this before someone more unpleasantly pedantic does-

    “Slightly less Lords/Ladies.”

    I’m pretty sure that should be ‘fewer’, not ‘less’.

  35. Although admittedly peers haven’t distinguished themselves in recent years

  36. Excluding Scotland, Sturgeon’s ratings are a net -23%.

    That is very relevant to seats in England and Wales if you expect the Conservatives to try and frame the debate in the closing months of the next general election in much the same terms as they did the last.

  37. @Phil H

    Of course, if the rest of the UK thinks NS (and by default the SNP) is terrible and votes accordingly (ie supporting a party in the rUK with an strong unionist bent), it only supports the SNP’s agenda.

    A phrase about cutting off your nose to spite your face comes to mind.

  38. @Phil Haines
    @CMJ

    That’s why people are thinking that September 2020 is a probable referendum, date – after yet another Conservative majority with attendant anti-SNP propaganda.

  39. @Bill

    Point taken. I bow to your superior grasp of things written.

    @Valerie

    Carping from the sidelines? :-p

  40. I wonder whether the next referendum about the future of the Union should be UK-wide, and ask something like – ‘Do you want the Union to continue?’

    There must be many in England like myself who are getting very bored with the ‘Scottish question’ and they might swing it for the SNP.

    I seem to remember there was a poll about English attitudes to Scottish independence some time ago but I can’t remember the results.

  41. It seems that polling companies didn’t excel themselves in Greece.

  42. Should Tsipras be called ? ? ???????

    The Troika must be hacked off with the Greek people.

    They have been given the chance to vote ‘the right way’ on several occasions, but have failed to do their duty.

  43. Sorry about ? ? ???????, this site doesn’t like Mr Teflon on Greek.

  44. @Catmanjeff

    I can’t disagree that at the moment the rest of the UK disliking the SNP and perhaps voting Tory in part as a result supports the SNP’s agenda. Though I do think that at some stage Scots must start to see through the SNP’s self-righteous us-v-them narrative. In recent years they have been masters of hegemony – ensuring that their worldview is dominant – but they are starting to sound like the boy who cried wolf. If they want to get independence in the long run they need to make a convincing positive case for it rather than living off the politics of grievance.

  45. CatManJeff – “The Troika must be hacked off with the Greek people.
    They have been given the chance to vote ‘the right way’ on several occasions, but have failed to do their duty.”

    The Syriza phenomenon is a text-book example of the importance of Patriotism.

    Pretty much everyone and their dog knows that Syriza loves their country and will fight to the last in the ditches for Greece. When Tsipras was first elected, he underlined this point on his first day with a visit to the tomb of the unknown soldier to lay a wreath.

    The battle between Syriza v ND has always been framed as Patriots vs Appeasers.

    And the Greeks chose the Patriots of course. If you are going to have austerity it might as well be done by people whom you know love the country and would only do what they absolutely have to, versus people who are half-hearted about defending their nation.

    The Corbyn people should take note. Voters don’t like it if you are half-hearted about this stuff.

  46. Statgeek,

    I have to make up for my inability to predict elections. For a very long time I had Labour winning a similar majority to the one the Tories have!

  47. @statgeek

    Fewer of number, less of quantity. Fewer bags of sugar, less sugar.

  48. @Jack Sheldon

    Read Candy’s post and replace Siriza with SNP, and you will understand the secret of SNP success.

  49. @jacksheldon

    Ah yes, us Scots are so slow on the uptake unlike you. Still having had an SNP Government for 8 years we might start seeing sense soon. Until then the polling on issues will probably still show positive ratings for stuff like the NHS and so on but then they are just things we have everyday experience of. We don’t have the advantage of your detailed knowledge of self righteousness. Haven’t seen any polling on self righteousness yet; is there UK wide polling on that?

  50. I wonder how Nicola Sturgeon’s approval rating in England would compare to before the GE campaign started. Apart from probably more “don’t knows”, I would imagine it fell somewhat during the campaign due to the Conservatives’ “evil SNP” rhetoric.

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