ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian is out today and has topline figures of CON 38%(-2), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 13%(+3), GRN 3%(-1). The full tables are on their website here.

The fieldwork for the poll was Friday to Sunday, meaning just over half of the interviews were conducted before Jeremy Corbyn was announced as Labour’s new leader. If you are waiting to see the impact of Corbyn on Labour’s voting intention figures, you’ll need to wait for another poll (and even then, if the next poll has Labour down a bit or up a bit, unless it’s a huge great shift it will be indistinguishable from normal sample error. As ever, we’d need to wait for a couple of polls showing movement in the same direction before concluding there had been any real effect).


350 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 38, LAB 32, LDEM 8, UKIP 13, GRN 3”

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  1. Meanwhile, in a parallel universe:

    ‘Corbyn sings national anthem out of tune’; ‘disgraceful lack of respect for Monarch’; ‘I always practice signing anthem to get it exactly right, says Cameron’

  2. @Hawthorn

    Well, again, it depends what one means. Boy did those guys like to meddle. How “moderate” is over 700 directives and suchlike to head teachers? It was like more than one a week!! It’s not like they were the clearest directives ever either.

  3. JC coming across well and this will be all across the news tonight, he just needs to get a decent shirt, tie and suit now.

  4. MRNAMELESS

    Yesterday the government voted to cut tax credits. Whatever you think of the decision, that’s a bit of news. Because of Jeremy Corbyn’s rather irrelevant principle about the anthem, that’s nowhere to be seen, even on the Mirror’s front page.

    Surely that says more about the news values of the newspapers than Jeremy Corbyn, he doesn’t decide what they choose to put on their front pages.

  5. Yeah, if it weren’t the anthem they’d prolly find summat else. Like maybe if he’d borrowed one of Cameron’s Phil Collins albums once and forgot to give it back… That sort of thing. It’s all about “human interest”, news stories these days.

  6. God Save Our Gracious Queen isn’t a Hymn-its nothing to do with “religion”.

    Its our National Anthem-asserting support & respect for our Head of State. We would have a National Anthem if we were a Republic.

    Corbyn’s “authenticity” doesn’t stretch to “honesty”. The hones thing for him to say would be-I didn’t sing THIS National Anthem because it praises THIS Head of State-who is an unelected Queen. And I am a Republican.

    Now THAT would be truly “unspun”.

  7. Maybe if he just hummed it? Or sang it to the tune of the red flag…

  8. @David Colby

    He made it clear of his scepticism throughout the campaign, including on high exposure TV appearances like the Sky Debate, so to suggest he hid it is unfair to say the least.

  9. @craig

    We are now in a new era, where it is important to state very clearly the obvious at every turn.

    I think this may only apply to opposition parties, it isn’t clear…

  10. KENTDALIAN

    It is the effect when it kicks in where the trouble will start.

    It was the same with Brown’s 10p tax abolition blunder.

  11. @Carfrew

    He also made it clear he wanted the party to be democratic in its policy decisions, so the attention paid to each and everyone of Corbyn’s personal positions is a bit irrelevant if he intends to take them to conference!

  12. Well from now on Corbyn WILL be singing the national anthem – according to Labour sources, but the damage is done his hope was ‘not being a hypocrite’ so it’s worst of both worlds.

    The thing we can’t name seemed like a fairly easy campaign trail Q&A, veering into a Tory PPB.

  13. Corbyn not singing the anthem isn’t, for me, a big deal. I think he could probably do with having a good, hard think about a logical compromise position in his view of the monarchy though. It is common to deride a monarch as the “unelected Head of State” but in a sense this isn’t true. The public have the opportunity, at least once every five years, to elect a government on a republican platform which would inevitably lead to a referendum on dismantling the monarchy. They reliably choose not to. So, although they aren’t being explicitly asked the question they have in effect “voted” to have the Queen as Head of State.

    On that basis, Corbyn and other republicans could reconcile themselves to singing the anthem (awful as it is, and boy is it carp) without feeling that it means they are supporting the monarchy per se. It’s a bit like having a New British Republic with an anthem entitled “Chance and Circumstance Favour the President” (for those who don’t believe in God, or Queens). Corbyn might not actually agree with it, if the president were Blair, or Cameron or Boris. He might want the sky to fall in on them. But would that be a reason not to sing it?

    On the tactics of it, well where do you start? What harm would learning and singing the anthem actually have done? It would have reassured a whole lot of doubters without giving Brotherhood/Sisterhood anything substantial to moan about. It would have kept the issue out of the papers (or perhaps even given a nice opportunity for a smartly dressed Corbyn to look congenial, respectful and “normal”). But I supposed if you’re prepared to lose a marriage over education policy, then that kind of compromise is probably not going to be on the cards.

  14. @Anarchists Unite

    I stand corrected, as you say, Milibandites – or social democrats – are usually OK to work with us.

  15. In the olden days, BST (Before Storage Tax), peeps were defined politically according to ideology and stuff. Syndicalists and neo-summat-or-others. Nowadays they are defined in terms of agreement or opposition to other politicians’ standpoints. Which, given the way politicians can turn on a dime, makes for an interesting challenge.

  16. @Craig

    Are, well if that’s the case, we shall need to define Corbyn with respect to Conference.

  17. Just a thought…maybe Corbyn doesn’t know the words to our national anthem?

  18. @Couper2802

    “So that’s the new old Labour politics, othering hard working activists and supporters, my goodness it really is back to the 80s”

    Well, without wishing to drag MrNameless into something, I can safely say that I was not ‘othering’ him. His position seems fairly clear seeing as he; a) declared himself a Milibandite; b) has expressed his dissatisfaction with Corbyn frequently.

    It seemed an appropriately concise statement against what I saw as an unfair, and irritating, habit of some people of assuming that anyone against Corbyn must be a Blairite; and vice versa that anyone who expresses some support of him must be fully on board.

    Also I’m a bit mystified as to where my association with Labour comes from. I’m not a supporter or member of any political party. Indeed my name should be a fairly large tip-off for this.

  19. My 96y old mother, who was in Signals during WW2 and took part in the Battle of Britain, totally approves of Jeremy Corbyn’s dignified participation in the Commemoration.

    She feels nothing but outrage at the way the deaths of all those young men has been turned into some jingoistic celebration of God, Queen and Country. She is even more appalled, that many consider it as a good opportunity to try and besmirch a politician.

    There is huge gulf between the simple act of remembrance and the trivialisation of it by the media. What on earth does it matter, if a politician wears the wrong coat or does not sing the national anthem, in comparison to her memory of the scared faces of 20y olds as they prepared to fly out on another mission?

  20. CARFREW

    @”Or sang it to the tune of the red flag…”

    That doesn’t work for him because the words are what offends him-not the tune.

    But singing The Red Flag to the tune of The National Anthem would do it.
    ……….but is the raised clenched fist obligatory do you think ?

  21. @” What on earth does it matter, if a politician wears the wrong coat or does not sing the national anthem, in comparison to her memory of the scared faces of 20y olds as they prepared to fly out on another mission?”

    The only answer to that question which matters is one from veterans. Only they can adjudicate on what constitutes , and does not constitute, appropriate respect for their fallen comrades in arms.

    Perhaps there will be a Poll.

  22. …………..and primarily-of course-the view of relatives of those who gave their lives.

  23. @Colin,

    Here is what a 92 year old WW2 veteran has tweeted:

    Harry Leslie Smith @Harryslaststand
    “As a RAF veteran of WW2 I’m not offended by Corbyn not singing #nationalanthem but I am offended by politicians who sell guns to tyrants.”

  24. LIZH

    Opinion Polls help to overcome our tendency to pick small examples of anecdotal opinion supportive to our own thinking. We all do it :-)

    Hopefully this topic will receive some decent attention from the polling companies. The Demographic in question is presumably easy to access.

  25. Maybe the point I was trying to make was a little too obtuse for some. I know the national anthem isn’t a hymn, although it’s inherently religious in its content, I was making a wider point about the games politicians play in order to pander to what they think are the public’s expectations of them. Belting out the national anthem is one such de rigeur ritual, as is the mantle of church-going for PMs. I conflated the two because, in their different ways, they are examples of the emptiness and insincerity of gesture conformity.

    I’m sure Corbyn would be quite happy to sing a national anthem that didn’t involve ludicrous references to the Monarchy but by declining to do so he was being true to his republican beliefs.

    In the same way I look forward to our first PM who has the courage to admit that he or she may be either an atheist or at least agnostic. We’ve probably had quite a few already, I suspect, but none have had the courage to say so.

  26. @COLIN

    Are you going to commission a poll then?

  27. I’m not in a position to do so Liz-but I hope someone does.

  28. Did Miliband pretend to be a churchgoer?

  29. @Colin

    “That doesn’t work for him because the words are what offends him-not the tune.”

    ———-

    I was thinking that maybe the tune could kinda offset the words.

    But given he hasn’t said, maybe it IS the tune. Or maybe he was afraid they might do the extra verse about Scotties…

  30. Neil A
    No he was an open atheist.

  31. @Colin

    Re: the fist thing. Not an expert but think that might only apply at the Olympics and stuff…

  32. Or if ToH gets particularly exercised about the tomato blight thing…

  33. From Robert Peston on the BBC website:

    So here is the chatter: that one or a number of the New Labour Blairite ultras could cross the floor to the Tories, because of their personal relationship with Osborne – to whom they feel closer, in a political and social sense, than they do to Labour’s new leader, Jeremy Corbyn
    Osborne mixes in the same modish London metrosexual and metropolitan elite circles as them. He takes their calls, responds to their emails, and is fully abreast of their current agony.
    And they admire him. More than once I’ve been told, by a couple of their gang, that Osborne is the most impressive politician of the moment.

    But the Blairite ultras aren’t crypto-Tories, oh definitely not.

  34. There’s going to be a debate about Redcar steelworks today. 3 000 job losses seem likely.

  35. @Neil A

    “Did Miliband pretend to be a churchgoer?”

    No he wasn’t but, unless of course that election in May was some ghastly nightmare from which the nation is only now slowly emerging, he didn’t become PM! I was referring to Prime Ministers discovering a religious faith once elected.

    Miliband and Clegg, however, were the first major party leaders though who admitted their atheism in public. In Miliband’s case, I don’t think for one minute it was a reason he lost the election but, had he won, we would indeed have had our first overtly atheist Prime Minister. That might have made for some interesting state occasions during his time in office.

  36. @AU

    “I’m not a supporter or member of any political party. Indeed my name should be a fairly large tip-off for this.”

    ———–

    Not sure the name will save ya from being put in a box and labelled. You could call yourself the “non-voting hater-of-all-parties” for all the good it’d do.

  37. Crossbat: indeed, Clegg famously once said, “I am not a man of faith, but my wife is”.

  38. @Hawthorn

    “But the Blairite ultras aren’t crypto-Tories, oh definitely not.”

    ———–

    Oh, Was it crypto? I didn’t realise peeps weren’t supposed to know. Think we may have blown their cover….

  39. According to Wikipedia:

    Although one of his brothers became a clergyman and one of his sisters a missionary, Attlee himself is usually regarded as an agnostic. In an interview he described himself as “incapable of religious feeling”, saying that he believed in “the ethics of Christianity” but not “the mumbo-jumbo”. When asked whether he was an agnostic, Attlee replied “I don’t know”.

    I suspect that interview will have been after he left office.

  40. If some Blairites did cross the floor, that would be the final suicide of Blairism in the Labour Party.

    It would be interesting to see how they reconcile pro-Europeanism with the current Tory Party.

  41. CROSSBAT11

    “It certainly looks like the usual suspects have come out to play”

    If those of us who take a more right of center view are the “usual suspects” what does that make those who take a left of center view?

    The unusual suspects? :-)

  42. @ Hawthorn

    KENTDALIAN
    It is the effect when it kicks in where the trouble will start.
    It was the same with Brown’s 10p tax abolition blunder.

    Forgive me, but I’m not sure I understand your point, maybe you could elaborate.

    If I understood it correctly, Mr N seemed to be suggesting that it was JCs fault that the cuts to working tax credit went unreported.

    We live in country where the media are free to choose which stories they report and the prominence they give to those stories.

    Those decisions are made by programme and newspaper editors.

    Regardless of the merits of whether JC should have sung the national anthem or not, I fail to see how anybody but those same editors can be held resonsible for the choices they make.

  43. KENTDALIAN

    What I mean is that when the actual change happens (next April) and the working poor see their pay packets shrink is when the Government will run into difficulties.

    Hardly anyone pays enough attention to Westminster politics to notice at this time in any case. This is yet another way that political obsessives do not understand the public.

    In other words, in drama you show, don’t tell.

    It was the same with the 10p fiasco. At the time, the Westminster bubble said Brown was a genius for reducing the basic rate to 20p (which was part of the same budget). It was not until people lost money that the political timebomb went off.

    It is possible that Osborne will try to defuse this timebomb before next April, but it is difficult to see how.

  44. @KENTDALIAN

    I agree with you. There is too much blame anyone but the ‘real’ culprit. It is time people started blanking the media.

  45. Blairites crossing the floor – interesting thought. Not sure they’d need to resign their seats. I think they could clearly argue that the Labour Party had left them…….If Corbyn stays and his beliefs become policy, they could hardly stand for elction as candidates supporting those policies.

  46. @Hawthorn

    If Blair is a “crypto-Tory” why do Lab people get so upset when some of his legislation is repealed? I would have thought you’d be thrilled?

    Which of Blair’s legislatory achievements would you repeal?

    Minimum wage? Tax credits? Devolution to Scotland, Wales, London and NI? Human rights act? Bank of England independence? Northern Ireland Peace Agreement? Freedom of Information Act?

    I think Corbyn wants to get rid of the independence of the BoE and possibly the NI Peace Agreement.

    But what is so amazing about Blair is how many of his policies are accepted across the political spectrum – that’s a mark of an important Prime Minister, in that respect he is as important as Thatcher. The Conservatives have embraced the minimum wage for example and are increasing it, extended civil partnerships to gay marriage and have extended devolution.

    I personally think the devolution was a mistake, but accept that I am in a minority on that.

    What exactly would you repeal from the laws Blair put on the books?

  47. @Carfew

    Re AU

    AW has removed the offending posts so I will say no more.

  48. CARFREW
    ” I don’t think Marx covered the duck house thing, it’s a bit of a glaring omission. But then neither did Keynes or Adam Smith or Mises”

    Mises? Veblen did,though,and Mary Douglas, Durkheim, Mauss etc, – it’s known as conspicuous consumption. Think of it as being more or less the same as totem poles among the Tlingit and Hadza.

  49. Hawthorn
    “If some Blairites did cross the floor, that would be the final suicide of Blairism in the Labour Party”

    I agree there would be no coming back from that, it is the ultimate piece of evidence to reinforce the “Red Tory” claims of those on the left. That a Labour MP would rather defect to the Conservatives (who at present are very much reminiscent of Thatcher’s Tory party not McMillan’s one nations Tory party) than endorse, or at least quietly tolerate a left wing Labour leader elected with a clear mandate is frankly unthinkable. There is no way said Blairite could defend their actions, it would essentially constitute an admission that they themselves are basically Tories but for one of several not particularly valid reasons they have spent their political career in Labour.

    I doubt it will happen for the more practical reason that they would almost certainly lose their seat come an election but IF it does happen then I would very much anticipate some of the Blairite cries of mass de-selections to come true.

  50. As a last comment on the furore surrounding Corbyn’s silence during the singing of the national anthem yesterday, and to make a much wider point, I’ve always been a little queasy about this creeping cultural fascism that surrounds etiquette and approved behaviour at public occasions. We’ve had poppy fascism for some years now which means lo behold any politician who doesn’t wear one (so they all do) and it won’t be long before the Daily Mail’s Un-British Activities Committee calls to account anyone not singing our dirge of a monarchist nation anthem.

    What I object to is this pervasive “othering” of people who don’t conform. I sense this growing in our public life and maybe Corbyn’s emergence on the political centre stage might just challenge some of this pernicious cultural fascism.

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