Jeremy Corbyn wins

Jeremy Corbyn has, as expected, won the Labour leadership election. I say as expected but the reality is we didn’t actually have that much evidence to go on during the campaign – noise on Twitter and size of crowds at campaign meetings are bunk, the reports of what the campaigns canvassing operations found were very erratic and while we had concrete figures for local party nominations we didn’t know how good a guide that would be to how local members actually voted. The expectation that Jeremy Corbyn was going to win was based upon the polls, or more specifically, two YouGov polls, both conducted for the Times.

We only have to go back a few months to another election when there was a wide expectation of a particular result, based on what the polling evidence was telling us and it didn’t work out so well. Polling an internal party election is a very different challenge to polling a general election, in many ways a more difficult one – you have to track down respondents from a very small pool. The huge influx of new members and registered supporters made this election particularly tricky – YouGov had more demographic data about Labour party members than they did when they polled the 2010 leadership election, but that was only about half the electorate. The rest were an unknown quantity. Rationally I was confident in the polling showing Corbyn was ahead, not least because it showed Corbyn winning amongst every demographic group, but that didn’t stop the nagging fear that come Saturday Jeremy Corbyn would have trailled in last place and the whole of the media would have been following the wrong story based on wrong polls.

In the event, the YouGov poll actually seems to have matched up well against the final result, though there was a month between fieldwork and the end of the contest. The last poll was conducted back in August, and had figures of Corbyn 53%, Burnham 21%, Cooper 18%, Kendall 8%. This was before registration to take place in the election closed and a couple of days later when Labour released the final figures for the number of members, supporters and affiliates YouGov reweighted the figures to reflect the proper balance of the electorate. That took Corbyn’s share up to 57%. In the event Corbyn won with 59.5%

With the contest over, now we wait to see what the impact will be. I wrote at greater length here about what the polls could tell us about how well or badly Jeremy Corbyn will do (long and the short of it, as far as direct evidence is concerned they can’t tell us much). Personally I wouldn’t expect some immediate crisis in Labour support unless the party completely rips itself apart (most people simply don’t pay enough attention to what the opposition party is up to!), there could even be a short term boost from a new leader. We shall see.


282 Responses to “Jeremy Corbyn wins”

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  1. What is more, even if interest rates have slightly risen before that recession struck, with an austerity policy they would be able to do SFA to combat a recession.

    The Tories had better hope that Osborne has abolished recessions!

  2. Hawthorn
    I thought recessions had already been abolished by Gordon Brown?

  3. PeteB

    It was a stupid thing for Brown to say, and it would be even stupider for the Tories to even think they have done the same.

  4. Australia has a new PM

  5. Just catching up with things economic. PMI data for last month a bit off colour. Manufacturing sluggish, services down quite sharply, construction up but still weak.

    Other ONS data showed a much worse manufacturing and export picture than the PMI survey, while retail sales were poor in June and up only a tiny fraction in July.

    A general sense that the UK economy is slowing, more so than had been expected I suspect.

  6. The phrase “there is no coming back for Labour” or variants of it are being thrown around a lot today so I just thought I’d go on record as saying people are getting a wee bit too excitable. Labour is not going to disappear as the main opposition party and everybody should know that.

    I will just point out one thing in defence of that claim. Those who are saying UKIP will rise from Labours ashes in the North are chatting total ***** That type of comment betrays a very fatal lack of understanding of the motives of Lab voters, the motives of UKIP voters and the political culture of the North in general. UKIP (as they currently exist) are NEVER going to become the main party of northern England.

  7. In shadow cabinet news Lisa Nandy has been given Energy and Climate change, have to be honest that’s one of the best nominations of the whole affair in my humble opinion.

  8. The fear of the right is that they now have a real Opposition. All the cosy consensus is gone. Good for democracy and good for the UK.

  9. @rivers10

    For similar reasons that it’s silly to insist Labour are finished, it’s also silly to insist they’re always going to be the main opposition.

    You should remember what happened to the Liberals. And Labour’s close shave in 1983
    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/1/1a/Election_1983_Polls.jpg/640px-Election_1983_Polls.jpg

    And what happened to Labour in Scotland.

    In the FPTP voting system you’re very safe until you get close to a certain threshold of support, and once you drop a little below that, you start losing seats very quickly.

  10. @Hawthorn – I think all these potential events are what makes election forecasting very difficult. Rightly or wrongly, Tories have an element of credibility on the economy, which if left intact will swamp a Corbyn Labour party.

    However, we’ve seen time and again the dramatic reversals in the perceptions of the economy, and how that can devastate a governments credibility. During the last period of Tory government in the 1980’s, this took a long time, and it wasn’t in the end the recessions that did it – it was the complete failure of a central tenet of economic policy. That’s the odd thing – Tory governments appeared to be reasonably well protected against the political fall out from recession.

    What happens between now and 2015 will be fascinating. It looks like we are going to see continued poor growth, which will probably mean debt and deficit does not follow the predicted path – but again, that happened after 2010 and didn’t do Cameron any harm.

    Quite what the ‘big event’ would have to be is difficult to see. We have a huge balance of payments problem, which would in previous ages have already precipitated a currency crisis, but in the modern world with free floating exchange rates, this is less of a political issue. There is some talk that such an event could trigger capital flight from the UK, and as foreign capital is bascially what is keeping us afloat now, that would be serious, but whether it would be sufficiently stark, sudden and readily understandable for voters to lay exclusively at the governments door I don’t know.

    The lights going out would be more readily associated with Tories, especially as Labour are favouring a different model for public services, but whether the timings work for a GE would be a key issue.

  11. Lisa Nandy odds to be next leader must go down slightly considering she is in the shadow cabinet.
    Maybe Luciana Berger could also be a possible contender considering she is also serving as is Gloria Di Piero( quite surprising that as she is strong blairite. I suppose Mental Health and Young people are not a controversial area and will not have any damaging Corbyn pollicies0

  12. The Shadow Cabinet has 16 women and 15 men.

  13. Australia is amazing. Their parliaments are only three years long and still they manage to change Prime Ministers mid-Parliament!

    Their leadership of parties and govt has gone as follows:

    2007 Kevin Rudd Elected
    2008 Malcolm Turnbull made liberal party leader
    2009 Malcolm Turnbull ousted as liberal leader by Tony Abbott
    2010 PM Kevin Rudd ousted by Julia Gillard (His deputy)
    2013 PM Julia Gillard ousted by Kevin Rudd
    2013 Tony Abbott wins election
    2015 PM Tony Abbott challenged by Malcolm Turnbull

  14. Hawthorn,

    He didn’t abolish what was at least reported as a recession (and which was a definite growth slowdown) in 2011-2012. As you say, Labour need to do more than wait for a recession: they need to change the narrative, and quite fundamentally. Corbyn’s is a high risk, high reward strategy for Labour.

  15. Omnishambles
    I accept that but who is going to replace Lab as the main opposition?

    Tories can take as many seats of Labour as they like but there going to have to take 150+ to change who the opposition is.

    Unless the SNP start standing in England and Wales its not going to be them, same with Plaid.

    Lib Dems are in a bit of a slump and Lib Dem recovery will almost certainly come primarily at the expense of Tory seats, many of the seats they won off Labour circa 2001-2010 was due to students and I think we can all conclude the student seats look set to be Labour bastions under Corbyn.

    This leaves UKIP, I’m not alone in thinking UKIP’s peaked and reality is UKIP’s performance in the North was pretty lacklustre. There was talk of gaining Grimsby, they came a disappointing third, there was talk of gaining Rotherham, they came a distant second. the only bright spot was Heywood and Middleton which was almost certainly just a residual effect from the by-election and even there they went backwards due to differential turnout.

    But it comes down to something simpler again, can anybody seriously suggest that a party to the right of the Tories can overtake Lab in their traditional heartlands? UKIP’s success was down to appealing to a sizable minority of the disaffected and “left behind” but they can’t win many seats appealing only to them. To win old industrial seats or in the big cities you apparently need to have a commitment to social justice and solidarity and all the other left wing stuff, you have to appeal to ethnic minorities and young people, UKIP don’t come anywhere near to fulfilling that criteria hence they will never get very far. I rarely make claims of certainty but this is one area where I’m 98.5% sure. UKIP might gain a bit more ground in the North (but I doubt it) but were looking at 10 seat territory at best. If UKIP is set to gain a sizable amount of seats it will be in currently Tory held WWC seats in the south and midlands, not old industrial seats in the North.

  16. @Candy

    “Their parliaments are only three years long and still they manage to change Prime Ministers mid-Parliament!”

    That’s nothing – between 2009-2011 DJP of Japan went through 3 leaders/PMs in the same amount of time

  17. @Candy

    Must be something about that region of the world…

  18. IMO, The reason the Tories won was because the recession was not as bad as it could have been, people looked at Portugal, Spain and Greece and thought ‘there’s been a huge worldwide crash’ and the Government has managed to steer us through it without mass unemployment, negative equity, strikes, high interest rates. True the Tories have no heart but they have kept the economy on an even keel.

    Labour never put across the alternative narrative, that 13 years of Labour had left the economy strong enough to withstand a global crash, they never attempted to as they were too busy distancing themselves from the previous Labour government.

    Labour never addressed their issue with Ed or with the economy in five years, the complacency of their 35% strategy was their undoing.

    Now, the Tories have a huge opportunity, they can tack into the middle, prove they have a heart and de-toxify. While painting Labour as dangerous extremists. If the Tories are smart they could usher in a long period of Tory rule.

  19. I think UKIP would do better in places like Medway than the North.

  20. Couper
    The question is will the Tory backbenchers let the leadership take them a bit to the centre? The Tory backbenchers are not known to obey the frontbench on areas they disagree regardless of the electoral dividends.

  21. Dies anyone here know how many full new members have joined Labour since the election? Not registered supporters but members, One person here mentioned 45k but I have seen figures of 100,000 (again not including registered supporters).

  22. @rivers 10

    It’s far too soon to say but if Labour support drops further don’t expect the other parties to stay static. There’s nothing to stop UKIP from adopting some populist left-wing positions on the economy to draw support from Labour. We haven’t seen much reaction from the Lib Dems, but it’s unwise to write off their appeal to moderates. We may even see a new party being formed if a couple years from now a group of Labour MPs can’t stomach Jezza and can’t remove him either.

    Of course Labour could salvage it and I think it’s unwise to say Labour are finished, but you’ve got UKIP who are clear anti-EU and socially conservative, you’ve got Lib Dems who are clear pro-EU and socially liberal. And then you’ve got Labour. Are they pro EU or not? Are they serious about socialist economic policies or not? Can they be ‘trusted’ on defence or not?

    If those questions aren’t answered then the question becomes, given the declines in trade union membership* and public sector employment, what is the point of the Labour party?

    *
    http://caithness-business.co.uk/image_cache/na4972.jpg

  23. Anarchists Unite,

    The north tip of Australia is about as far from the southern tip of Japan as the UK is from Liberia. So you’re talking about quite a big region!

    On the Tories moving to the centre, I think the possibility is there if Cameron and his successor should will it. The Tories still have that discipline that comes from experiencing over a decade in the wilderness, and the Tory backbenchers were mostly mousey in 2010-2015. To be fair, though, the exception of the attempts to “lock-in” an EU referendum were significant, but that was one issue where the Tory backbenchers were closer to public opinion…

  24. Incidentally, I think that the Tories DO have a heart, but the credit for keeping the economy on an even keel should go to the Bank of England from 2013 onwards. After a wobble in 2011-2012 when they failed to look through VAT-induced inflation, they committed to satisfying the huge demand for bank reserves, thus finally getting UK spending growth on a smooth path again.

    In contrast, Spain, Greece, and Portugal are stuck with EDM, the successor to the Eternal Recession Mechanism- the Eternal Depression Mechanism. They’ve had a monetary policy suited for Germany when they needed one closer to US monetary policy in their 1933-1934 recovery.

  25. A tale of four recoveries. First, the US, where the Federal Reserve has ensured a steady but unspectacular recovery-

    https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1PuF

    – then the UK, where after a wobble the Bank of England saved the Tories’ pudding-

    https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1PuH

  26. And then the horrors of Spain and Greece-

    https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1PuK

    https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1PuM

    In the long run, governments can have some impact on their countries’ growth rates, but the difference between our recession and the Eurozone Periphery’s depression comes down to our different monetary arrangements, I think. It could have easily been us with >20% unemployment, and then it’s hard to imagine a Labour leader who could have lost in May!

  27. haven’t posted here for a while,one thing is for sure Politics is going to be interesting.PMQ’s will be expected to be great viewing.
    Seriously,though what was Labour thinking electing someone of this Ilk ? The first opinion poll (if believed) will be interesting.I suspect this could get really messy and maybe Michael Foot proportions.Ed really really lost the plot with this new voting system for Labour elections,he got Labour trounced in the last election and seriously seems to have put the spanner in for the next one at least

  28. I’m a lifelong labour supporter and currently a member of the party at this moment I’m feeling that the party has left me and that many now in the fold would happily hand me my coat on the way out. I’ve always believed in the principle of a fair and just society , I’m proud that labour ushered in the N.H.S and brought in to being the minimal wage ,I advocate the aim of redistribution of wealth and that those of us who are more fortunate should strive to contribute good into our society but I also believe that those who contribute should not be unduly penalised and that those who innovate and wealth create should be celebrated and encouraged to partake in our society , and whilst the powerful and privileged should always be open to scrutiny they should also be accorded a measure of respect and not assumed to be corrupt, perverse or malignant and whilst human rights and free speech should rightly be upheld this should always be tempered with the obligation of those who represents us to keep our populace protected and secure, I wholly agree that war is ugly and where possible negotiation and compromise should be a priority but not at the expense of our nations obligations as a historic and prominent power to aid and cooperated with our allies. I’m of the view that the majority regardless of party loyalties or where they broadly place themselves within the political spectrum would desire that the most likely contending parties for government should be broad based , moderate and consensual and not be hidebound by figures motivated by class warfare , aggressive tribalism and an innate distrust and even contempt for those perceived to be of the establishment or even just a different political outlook. Is there still a place for me in the labour party?

  29. Mark,

    Remember, 40% of the voters didn’t pick Corbyn and more than a sixth of his supporters probably don’t fit the stereotype you describe. Like Nye Bevan said of the NHS, it will be there so long as there are folk to fight for it.

  30. Mark Sadler- I’m sure that Corbyn himself would agree with everything you said in that post, up until the inferences at the end. I’m not alabour supporter (butvoted labour in West Wirral, where there was no Green candidate) but I am amazed by the level of bile which is being spilled about Corbyn, both in the media and within the labour establishment.

    Corbyn is a sandal-wearing vegetarian pacifist, who has stuck to his principles over the years, instead of climbing the greasy pole. He certainly isn’t the dangerous madman we are being indoctrinated to believe in. I’d prefer Caroline Lucas as PM, but I am more than happy that someone has come along who is genuinely different to the Westminster neo-liberal elite, and I’m sure that will attract other voters, if Labour give him a chance.

    But if you do decide to leave, andgenuinely want to see social justice, there is always the Green Party! ????

  31. Couper2808

    “Now, the Tories have a huge opportunity, they can tack into the middle, prove they have a heart and de-toxify. While painting Labour as dangerous extremists. If the Tories are smart they could usher in a long period of Tory rule.”

    I think that’s right, they do have a great opportunity. If they stick to implementing the manifesto they were elected on and don’t move to the right they should really gain from Labour’s disarray

  32. New poll, lads and ladettes

    ICM/Guardian:

    CON 38 (-2)
    LAB 32 (+1)
    LIB 8 (+1)
    UKIP 13 (+3)
    GRN 3 (-1)
    SNP 5 (=)

    Fieldwork would pre-date shadow cabinet announcements

  33. the tories could yet tear themselves apart over the EU referendum,would be interesting to see which way Corbyn goes over this one.

  34. LIZH

    “The fear of the right is that they now have a real Opposition. All the cosy consensus is gone. Good for democracy and good for the UK.”

    I agree with your last sentence, there is now very clear water between the Government and it’s main opposition and that is a good thing. However I have een absolutely no sign of fear on the right, just the odd coment, including my own that the main danger is complacency.

  35. Also, MRNAMELESS,

    Yes, 40% didn’t vote for him, but I bet a good chunk of Burnham’s 19% put him second; those labour members who liked what Corbyn stands for, but went for the “safe bet”. Was there any break-down on that?

  36. @ Mark Sadler

    I’m not a Labour Party supporter, although I vote for them when I’m allowed, but the views that you expressed are very close to Corbyn’s in most, a bit distant in some other.

    If your concern is electability, yes there could (but not necessarily) be an issue.

    If it’s about principles, there will be a whole lot of debates. While some are dogmatic, most people are pretty open to meaningful arguments – with the exception of a few deeply rooted issues – I actually think that it has never been a better time for members to shape the policies. But then there’s a possibility for a defeat of your views, and then you have to make a decision.

  37. “He certainly isn’t the dangerous madman we are being indoctrinated to believe in”
    Depends on your point of view. Another might look at his support for the IRA, his chuminess with militant Islam, his plans for the Falklands and his scaling back of our defences and say, yes, he is a very dangerous man.

    “But if you do decide to leave, andgenuinely want to see social justice, there is always the Green Party! ????”
    As an environmentalist that leans towards the Lib Dems but voted Labour in the last round, I’m also looking for a new party. But, like Zac Goldsmith, I find the Greens have given up their green credentials for Marxism. Vastly increasing the UK’s population will not reduce our carbon budget. No use asking other nations to reduce theirs, whilst we increase ours. Think global, act local.

  38. Bill Patrick:
    “In the long run, governments can have some impact on their countries’ growth rates, but the difference between our recession and the Eurozone Periphery’s depression comes down to our different monetary arrangements, I think.”

    I agree with this narrative. Bear in mind though that as well as implying that the coalition government’s policies weren’t that important to the country’s performance, it also implies that not joining the Euro was the most important thing the Blair government did. Despite the fact that Blair himself probably wanted to join.

  39. @Colin

    “He makes one mistake-to conflate BoE reinvestment of Gilt redemptions with ” non-repayment”. The Treasury continually has to meet Gilt repayment terms under QE-and is exposed to market sentiment in order to fund it;s rollover. It is this which pQE escapes. (1)”

    ————

    Lol Colin, this is such a straw man.

    OK, so you think that the current QE method, via the private sector banks, is preferable, because of some notional constraint when it comes to rolling over the debt down the line.

    This of course, evaporates if the govt. of the day doesn’t care about what happens down the line. They can rack up the QE now, and ignore future consequences.*

    But there is a constraint on Corby’s QE down the line too. If you keep doing it as the economy nears full capacity, you are liable to get onerous inlation, since the economy will be unable to keep up with the extra demand and prices therefore rise.

    Thus, in both cases, there is a pressure for the government not to abuse it. And all governments since the war have paid attention to inflation and the only time it got a bit out of hand was during the oil crisis when numerous countries took a hit. Even then, the Labour government got inflation down to a third of what it was inside three years. They performed rather better than Thatch in fact.

    So it boils down to the idea that you think Corbs will abuse it. He may however be well be aware that inflation hammers the poorer disproportionately, since they won’t have all those assets that appreciate during a bout of inflation.

    Also, if worried about inflation, why not be concerned about what’s been happening to house prices?

    This is where QE investment can be counter-inflationary. Building houses to bring the cost of housing down. Renationalising rail to bring the cost of transport down. Same with energy etc.

    *this is of course leaving aside that much of the money is magicked up by the private banks anyway, something which for some reason has never seemed to bother you, despite the Crunch etc.

  40. @Rivers10

    I am sure you are right – there is surely no chance of UKIP taking more than a seat or two in the Labour heartlands. Unless the EU Referendum brings a ‘NO’ in which case we are in a different place, and UKIP will become a different party.

    I can’t help wondering what would have happened if the Corbyn phenomenon had preceded the Liberal leadership vote. I suspect Norman Lamb would have won, as there would be a huge opportunity now for the Lib Dems.

    Five years ago, it could be argued that we did not have a party of the left, and now we have three: the Greens and Labour are close to indistinguishable in policy terms, and the Lib Dems are much the same under Farron.

    If Lamb was now leader he could make immediate overtures to the Blairites.

  41. Initial ramifications of Corbyn’s leadership are starting to become clear. The calculation is taken straight from NCP’s twitter feed, but basically the effective Conservative majority has increased from 16 to ~38 now that it’s almost impossible to see the Unionist NI MPs working with the likes of McDonnell (or even Corbyn), given their attitude towards the IRA.

    Conservative majority is 12
    16 because of SF absence
    32 with DUP support
    36 with UUP support
    38 with Hermon

  42. “The Greens and Labour are close to indistinguishable in policy terms”

    ———

    Not on the copyright thing, though?

  43. Omnishambles,

    Accept DUP and UUP but is Hermon so clear cut? She’s a bit lefty after all, isn’t she? I would think with her it’d depend what the vote was on.

  44. @Mark Sadler

    I share your pain Mark and feel similar to you. I have been writing on Labour Party forums and basically if you don’t support Corbyn you are accused of being Tory lite.

    I voted for Liz Kendall as 1st, Yvette Cooper 2nd and Andy Burnham 3rd. Corbyn was always going to win though as soon as he got on the ballot paper

  45. Thank you to all who made the effort to respond to my question , I certainly accept that the labour government in it’s last several years did to a degree become distant and complacent in regards to it’s members and core vote and I accept the need for the sake of it’s sense of movement beyond the travails and strife’s of the Blair/Brown factionist era the need and want to tack to the left and reclaim it’s historic mandate . I accept that a substantial proportion of those who took the plunge and embraced Mr Corbyn non apologetic socialist utopianism are genuine and sincere in their belief and hopes for a revived labour movement and that Mr Corbyn is a nice , caring and compassionate person but never the less I can’t help but have the feeling that a small yet vocal and highly motivated group of those with grievances with the time of new labour will not be content till they have had their pound of flesh and attempt to purged those not deemed socialist enough and will pressure Mr Corbyn into more problematic and untenable positions. I have come to the decision that i will keep my membership in the hope that over time Mr Corbyn will stay true to his avowed pledge to be a consolidator and unifier and try to temper his positions on defence and security and to be mindful that as leader of the opposition he has to raise himself above the luxury accorded to him as a backbencher of partisanship in regards the issues of the Ireland and the middle east .

  46. This isn’t really my arena, so I’ll express my views in a single post and leave it at that.

    1) I expect there to be, at some point (not necessarily right away) a bit of a “Corbynmania” surge in the polls, as the novelty and celebrity of the situation grips the public imagination. I don’t expect this will achieve the 20 point leads that Labour sometimes gets whilst in opposition but I expect Labour to get well clear of the Tories for a while.

    2) I expect there to be a lot of self-congratulatory back slapping when this happens, as the left heralds the “new politics” that has energized the public and given them a “real choice”.

    3) I expect the Tories to be back in front by 2019, and to win the next GE (although nothing is ever certain).

    4) I expect the election of Corbyn will facilitate the election of George Osborne as the next Tory leader. I believe Osborne, for all the hate that is spat his way, is more moderate and “One Nation” than Cameron and will probably tack the party leftwards in the run up to 2020 – at least rhetorically.

    5) I expect the Tories to be able to use the new direction of Labour to portray themselves as centrists. I actually think they will able to do this without much change in policy. If the choice is “should the bankers pay more tax or less tax” then “more tax” is the centrist position. If the question is “should bankers be lined up against the wall and shot” the centrist position is “No”. (I exaggerate for effect of course).

    6) I don’t think the Labour party will split, but I think it may change shape considerably. Many good Blairites will simply abandon their hopes of political office and either leave politics or sit out their time on the backbenches, rebelling occasionally until they are deselected. There is a danger of a “left spiral” effect whereby the Labour party becomes a less and less hospitable environment for the Centre Left, and those that it does attract become more and more convinced that their narrow church approach is right (because everyone around them agrees with them).

    7) I think Farron is better placed than most people think to resurrect the LDs. He wanted to reposition them as a proper centre-left party which rivals the Labour party. Well, guess what, a vacancy for a centre-left party has just appeared. He can propose lots of policy changes which are far to the left of Clegg, whilst simultaneously looking moderate and centrist by comparison with Labour (see Osborne above).

    8) The election of Corbyn massively increases the chances of the SNP successfully extricating Scotland from the Union, by making a Tory victory look more likely and by potentially fracturing Unionist support in Scotland even further.

    9) The current fashion for loving refugees, manifested in the reaction to the Aylan Kurdi photograph, will recede and the UK will continue to be a country that doesn’t support pro-immigration policies. Cameron, the arch-opportunist, will do just enough hand-wringing and eye-dabbing to get the Tories through the temporary troubles.

    10) We will be seeing a lot more of Russell Brand. That will not, in the end, help Labour….

  47. Omnishambles

    It depends if the Unionists are prepared to screw their voters by voting for cuts.

  48. @mrnameless

    NC added her to the tally after her intervention on the trade union bill. I don’t know what she said because I’m not watching the debate, maybe someone else is.

  49. Hermon produces an interesting question actually. What does one do as a left-wing unionist or a right-wing nationalist in Northern Ireland. Are there serious parties holding those positions?

  50. What an amusing day watching the chaos. Becoming clearer that JC and JM will be sticking up two fingers up to awkward questions from media heavyweights and print press scrutiny: preferring to spend as much time at demos and on marches preaching to converts already in the echo chamber. In particular Hilary Benns talking about a pro-EU stance and refusing pointedly to welcome John McDonnell…who is already having to promise whoever will listen that the economy is “safe in my hands”! Expect that trope to run and run.

    This was a fun read on yesterday’s events.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1552307/corbyns-cabinet-chaos-the-inside-story

    Also amusing was Tim Bales suggestion that we label current incarnation of LP #newoldlabour!

    Currently listening to a radio 4 ‘PM’ – which if you are a corbynista won’t be easy on the your ears.

    @Millie

    I thoroughly enjoyed your wish list dressed up (poorly) as an observational post. LK and TH not standing in 2020??!!

    You missed however the observation that Jeremy failed to get 50% of the first preferences of bonafide members losing to the split 3-way candidature of the ‘ABC party’. Small but significant- as the actual membership will never again contain within it so many left wingers as he’s sure to disappoint some of the purists and current hyper enthusiasts over the coming years.

    You also missed the fact that realists/ moderates have done very well in the elections for CAC and the all important National Policy Forum- including the terminally awful Lansman being kept out :-) = the NPF is now 25 left 25 right and 5 non aligned.

    @Couper2802

    Why on earth would Labour moderates want to join the current incarnation of the Lib Dems?

    If Cable and centre forum were in charge there might be a temptation. But I think TF is more likely to find a home with the Corbynistas than Labour moderates with the LibDems under him.

    I rejoined last Friday for first time since leaving in 2010- as have other moderates who were disillusioned when EM was elected and instinctively knew (correctly) that at that moment Labour had- by a statistical whisker- voted to lose the next election (converse to Saturday where the open primary voted by a large majority to lose the next election).

    There are many moderates who realised they left the door open- not just because of the farcical rules put in place in 2014, nor that they took their eye off the ball in policy terms (thinking that the common sense of the political centre- borrowing policies form both the left and the right- takes care of its own marketing and communication: it doesn’t). But also that you have to be a full bonafide member to make any difference: you have to rejoin or not let your membership lapse in the first place.

    My CLP membership secretary told me earlier today that for the open primary election the roster was 300 full members (a net increase after the May GE of 10) and 700 ‘supporters’ all who signed up since the GE in May but only 50 of whom turned up at the most recent CLP meeting as they are invited to do on a non-voting basis (and most seemed to know each other).

    I think a lot of the 15000 new members joining since Saturday will be the old labour hard left who had been 3 quid supporters for the purposes of the open primary.

    But I also think a not insignificant number will be those wanting to ‘fight fight and fight again’ etc. With social media I’ve found it very easy this (long) summer, to hook up with like minded Labour moderates in Yorkshire who are in business, the public sector and academia.

    That will be the same for Labour moderates all across England and Wales. There will be an explicit moderate policy platform set out with 2 and a half years. The alternative economic strategy to Corbynomics.

    @Mark Sadler

    No need to leave ! We are rebuilding already- you should play your part and reach out to moderates in your CLP and region. You sound like you will be surprised by how many of us there are ;-)

    @LizH

    From this morning- as Dick Emery said “you are AWFUL, but I like you”.

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