ComRes’s monthly telephone poll for the Daily Mail is out today and has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 28%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 9%, GRN 6%. The last time the Conservatives reached the heights of 42% in any poll was way back in 2010. Full tables for the poll are here.

The poll also had a bank of questions on perceptions of the four Labour leadership contenders and whether people would vote for them. In my last post I wrote about how such questions really don’t tell us very much: none of the candidates are well known to the public, and how people would vote with x or y as leader is an extremely hypothetical question – what policies will they follow? How will the media and public react? Will the party be united, split or riven with dissent? I don’t know and neither do the poll respondents.

For what it’s worth though, the main finding here was how little there was to choose between the candidates. ComRes asked if people would vote for Labour with the four candidates, the spread was between Burnham and Corbyn on 22% down to Kendall on 18%. They asked who had what it took to be PM, Burnham, Cooper and Corbyn were essentially in a three way tie on 23%-24%. Given the standard margin of error on a poll this size, it suggests the wider public really aren’t that enthused by any of them.


860 Responses to “ComRes/Daily Mail – CON 42, LAB 28, LDEM 8, UKIP 9, GRN 6”

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  1. @ Ken

    Thank you, lovely anecdote, so I will plagiarise if it’s OK.

    I mentioned that I’m working with some Chinese companies, and also British ones who want to work with Chinese firms. In the latter in all but one case I tell the British client to leave them alone, don’t deal with them at all, but I get the answer: but there must be a reason to work with them, can’t you find it? Well, the client is the king, so without stretching the professional ethics … I come with the conclusion, but with more caveats …

  2. LASZLO……Mozart is buried in the St Marx cemetery in Vienna. :-)

  3. @ Ken

    Lol. It is wonderful. He is buried there :-).

    Thank you.

  4. @Laszlo

    “Yes, but being a vegetarian, he won’t be caught on the bacon sandwich, and as long as JH is the government, homeopathy won’t hurt him either (the Tory press publishes more woo anyway). He directed the dress code criticism already in the 1980s. And the Islamist won’t stick either considering the (inadvertent) pro-ISIS actions of his critiques.”

    And the public at large probably shares his anti-Americanism. He’s got all his bases covered ;)

    @Syzygy

    “Just a word of appreciation for your recent contributions. they always make me laugh.”

    Thank you, it’s good to know my efforts have not been in vain :)

  5. “Can anyone explain the contradiction between the headline Labour voting intention (28%) and the much lower figures forfor Labour voting intention for ANY of the potential leaders?
    Is the figure who would vote Labour 28% or 22%?”

    Yes, the leadership figures include Don’t Knows.

  6. Andy JS,

    Thank you. Those figures make a lot more sense now.

  7. For the record, I was stating a hypothetical; I don’t consider Corbyn to be a Stalinist. He is also not a Trot (he is nowhere near obsessive enough for starters).

  8. Back to the US stock markets. Looks like the profits have been taken i.e. Dead cat bounce is over.

  9. Mark Sadler

    “I would be interested to hear what the various contributors on this site would suggest might be the potential high/low point in a general election vote for a Corbyn led labour party whether they be pro or anti Corbyn”

    Depends on the economy.

    If el Tories are right and everything is going well then it’ll be 1983 again.

    Obviously it’s not* so the political tide is going to turn leftwards on the economy. My guess is it will turn too slowly for Corbyn to reap the benefit but he might detoxify Labour from the memory of New Labour for when the tide has fully turned.

    (*adding more people increases GDP but isn’t growth – if you subtract all that in reality we’re going backwards just not as fast as others cos ironically Tax Credits act as a buffer to austerity)

  10. @ Hawthorn

    It is too early for a proper crash, but just to repeat it, a Chinese crash would have such implications that I don’t really want to witness, even if I think it is inevitable.

    As to JC as a Stalinist or Trot – only jokes come to my mind and it’s not for here. However, if he really wants to do what he talked about in Southampton, he really should make it sure he is made of steel.

  11. Laszlo

    I know that the political implications of a Chinese crash could be awful. This is why it would be good if the world economy was better run. However it is too late now, the choices have been made.

  12. Thinking about the Labour Purge the total electorate is now dropped by 60k so it is likely that a 100-110k purge is a reasonable estimate. So far it seems mainly affiliates that have been purged 40k of them. Remember, as well as the 3k removed for entryism as many as 15% will be removed because they are not on the electoral roll. It definitely seems that it is overwhelmingly Corbyn supporters being purged.

    Mark Sewotka of the PCS Union and an executive member of the FBU have both been banned from voting.

    So this is potentially the loss of 100k Corbyn votes. So if we take his 53% in YouGov poll on first preferences, this would drop to about 35%. Of course we have no idea if the YouGov poll was properly representative, but for the first time I am beginning to doubt that he will win – still odds on but doubt creeping in.

  13. @John Chanin
    I agree that there is some insider jargon on this site. To a degree this is inevitable and natural, as someone pointed out.
    There are some posts that go like this “AB said to YZ that the CD would affect the WX”. I have occasionally objected to this, trying to remind posters that there is a worldwide audience, and it’s not just a cosy private chat room.

    Anyway, enough self-righteousness.

    @Anarchists Unite
    “And the public at large probably shares his anti-Americanism”

    I’m not sure about that. Though many will have reservations about the American foreign policy in particular, and of course us blindly following it, when push comes to shove most Brits would side with the US rather than Russia or the Islamists.

  14. HAWTHORN……..The world economy isn’t run, there is no world management structure, the world economy isn’t even integrated, it simply exists. Therefore, it is never too late because the changes are constant and the choices are always available, it’s organic, action, reaction……! Don’t worry, bone up on quantum theory, that should put you at ease. :-)

  15. @ Cooper2808

    Reading too much DT lately?

  16. Ken
    I was going to post something similar, but then remembered the G7/G8/G20 etc. Do these groups ever achieve anything or are they just whistling in the dark?

  17. I was referring to collective decision making rather than shadowy cabals. The point is that the bubbles have already been blow and will cause damage when they burst. In that sense it is too late.

    Also what PeteB said.

  18. @Lazlo

    The figures are from Labour. The electorate started off at 610k it is now at 550k, the main drop is affiliates 40k. That’s why once this is complete it’s reasonable that the electorate will be down to about 500k. The 110k lost votes will be over whelmingly Corbyn voters. Most of the purged votes are folk not on the electoral roll, Corbyn’s constituency

  19. @Couper2802
    I believe the bulk of the 50,000 are meant to be affiliates who are also party members (and therefore only entitled to a single vote).

    I’m not sure where your assumption that another 50,000 will disappear is coming from.

    Not sure there’s much point asking though since a lot of your recent posts have read like they were written in bad faith (hope I’m wrong).

  20. PETE B……Considering the huge number of conflicting interests, and the associated compromises required, it never ceases to amaze me that anything works at all on the macro level. However, things do work of course, deconstructing the working model of the global economy is a challenge for economists, and we all know what that means. :-)

  21. Couper

    Herald View on Corbyn –

    “Politicians and political commentators, often drawn from the same small pool of Oxbridge graduates, are stuck in a bubble of their own making. Labour leader Corbyn may or may not be a disaster for his party. Prime Minister Corbyn may or not be a catastrophe for the country, but increasingly it looks like ordinary people not pundits will be the judge of that. ”

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/13625815.Herald_View__Facing_life_under_Corbyn/

  22. @AU

    “Presumably by 2020 he’ll be a Satanist.”

    ————-

    Oh, you mean he isn’t already? In the Book of Revelations it clearly states* that the Apocalypse will be heralded by the building of more infrastructure than usual, and much anguish in some quarters over the potential return of an integrated rail network. Paid for by money conveyed via helicopter!!*

    * Well, one reading of it anyway. Some readings add in stuff about aiming at affordable housing and energy bills, but clearly that’s stretching credulity to its very limits.

    ** That’s what the helicopters were all about in Apocalypse Now. Not a lot of people know that.

  23. Carfrew

    LOL. You are on form!

  24. @HAWTHORN

    “For the record, I was stating a hypothetical; I don’t consider Corbyn to be a Stalinist. He is also not a Trot (he is nowhere near obsessive enough for starters).”

    ———–

    We’ll be the judge of that. Anyways, things have moved on. It’s Satanist by 2020, and possibly Botanist by 2025…

  25. My ninety-five year old German grandmother has implored me to “never, EVER vote for a vegetarian in a cheap shirt” :)

  26. @FuntyPippin

    My posts contain no inaccuracies, if you think they do then prove it. The figure of 110k is from Harman herself.

    http://www.rt.com/uk/313381-harman-labour-election-infiltrators/

    Quote
    • People not being on the electoral register. On average this was about 15 percent of applications.

    I can supply other quotes.

    Maybe you don’t like what I have to say, but no need to accuse me of making things up in bad faith.

    My guess is a Corbyn leadership will, be a disaster for Labour and lead to decades of Tory rule, I am not alone in that assessment, most senior Labour figures agree with me, are they all acting in bad faith as well?

    I watched Scottish Labour’s entirely predictable destruction and now I watch the entirely predictable destruction of UK Labour.

    http://www.rt.com/uk/313381-harman-labour-election-infiltrators/
    It is not bad faith it

  27. Sorry the link appears twice (I thought that wasn’t allowed otherwise I would have added many more links) It’s from Russia Today so not the right wing MSM.

    And considering the board is discussing whether Corbyn is a Trotskyist or Stalinist, I would have thought a factual post that might have some bearing on the election result would have attracted something more than ‘nanananana we can’t hear you’ and insults.

  28. @OldNat

    The Herald completely hedging its’ bets.

  29. I knew Jeremy Corbyn when he was a NUPE official before he became an MP. He was a member of a small Trotskyist group (whose name I can’t remember) that had been expelled from the SWP (or may have been I.S. still at that time).

    According to the group they were expelled over political differences, mainly their view that the USSR was a degenerated workers’ state that, in spite of what it had become still deserved support, as against the SWP view that the USSR was State Capitalist and therefore no better than the USA.

    According to the SWP they were expelled because the members of the tendency were lazy and never did any work!

  30. @Pete B

    “when push comes to shove most Brits would side with the US rather than Russia or the Islamists.”

    Yes I’m fairly sure of that, I was being ironical

    @Couper2802

    It’s going to be really funny if it turns out the mass of people signing up were all shy Kendall supporters.

    @Carfew

    “Oh, you mean he isn’t already?”

    There is that little known passage in Leviticus: ‘Thou shalt not accept QE money unless thou art the head of a chartered bank. For such things are the temptation of the devil and you shall know him by his insistence on not wearing a tie.’

    Of course the other relevant biblical quotation, given the Very Serious People’s prognosis about the May elections, would be ‘and thus the first will be last and the last will be first.’ Who knew God would have an opinion about the Labour leadership?

  31. Before conspiracy theories run riot about the Labour purge, this experience may be of interest. I’m involved in checking affiliated supporters for a small socialist society that’s affiliated to the party.

    We were sent 38 applicants to check. Of these, 2 were genuine members who’d got on the list twice. Of the remaining 36, only 16 are actually members of the society. We have no idea who the rest are or why they chose to apply to vote in this way.

    But anyway, from this sample, more than half the applicants won’t actually get to vote but there is no political test involved. Just whether people have actually paid their membership of the society.

  32. Our village short mat bowls club had a similar experience.. Our membership is about 40, and last year we had 438 new applications for membership. On checking, we discovered that our initials-SSMBC had been mistaken for Sussex Socialist & Marxist Brotherhood Convention. None of them had any interest in bowling – they said it was an elitist activity for the petty bourgeoisie -so we told them to sod off.

    :-)

  33. Just ignore @COUPER2802. She is desperate for a anyone but Corbyn win because she fears otherwise the ex Labour supporters will leave the SNP in droves.

  34. Just ignore LizH she has drunk the cool aid and is blind to reason where Corbyn is concerned will not even be convinced post 2020 Tory landslide.

  35. But as they say never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake, so I will pop off now be back when the first post Corbyn polls are out to say ‘I told you so’ again

  36. That is unless my latest theory(outside chance) that the people not on the electoral roll plus rest of the purge means Corbyn loses in which case I will say ‘I told you so the purge caused him to lose’

  37. @COUPER2802

    The Corbyn surge has really spooked you. You know if the SNP hasn’t attracted people with false promises then they have nothing to fear.

  38. “Sorry the link appears twice (I thought that wasn’t allowed otherwise I would have added many more links) It’s from Russia Today so not the right wing MSM.”

    That’s a post to cut out and keep!

    Someone thinks that Russia Today is a useful media outlet to quote…..

  39. Reading the report about the purge on labourlist, I think Couper2802 may have a point.

    Looks like c.45k of the original pool of 610k potential voters will be discarded due to not being on the electoral register.

    This is a fairly sizeable fraction of the total group – 7%, and with representative samples of this vote so thin on the ground, it’s hard to know if JC is more than 7% ahead of the next candidate.

    So is prompts the question whether the purge will fall evenly on all four candidates support, or whether there is a bias that means this group is over weighted in Jeremy Corbyn supporters and he is about to lose a large amount of votes.

  40. Alec

    Well, others think the Daily Telegraph “is a useful media outlet to quote” …..

  41. Fascinating events in the global economy. Looks like the Chinese experiement in controlling the markets is failing, and the consequences for China could be dramatic.

    As with our own economic swings, if there is to be a correction, get it in early so it is small and containable. If you falsely try to pump the market to avert the correction, investors change their behaviiour and continue to push values, making the end pain that much more damaging.

    In Chine, the government has continually sought to reassure investors of the robustness of the market, to the extent that pensioners now play the stock market with their pensions. China seems to operate a hybrid stock market, where the trades set the prices, but the government intervenes to maintain high values in other ways. This seems the worst of all worlds. If you are going to buy into marjet trading as a route to wealth, people need to understand the downside, and to deal with the downside efficiently the government needs to step back.

    Instead, the government has done things like ban big institutional investors from selling, so state owned ventures are seeing huge losses, and they have now allowed the huge state pension fund to invest in stocks and even derivatives – gambling with future pensions.

    It seems to be dawning on the Chinese public that market forces are to big for their government to control, and the loss of confidence, both economically and politically could be catastrophic. There is a lot of anger out there it seems.

    Meanwhile, the UK Markit Household Finance Index for August shows a decline for the third successive month.

    Where is the Labour party when you need them?

  42. ALEC

    “As with our own economic swings, if there is to be a correction, get it in early so it is small and containable. If you falsely try to pump the market to avert the correction, investors change their behaviiour and continue to push values, making the end pain that much more damaging.”

    Thank goodness no-one has tried that with the UK housing market!…oh dear!

  43. ALEC

    @”Someone thinks that Russia Today is a useful media outlet to quote…”

    UKPR in the grip of Corbynmania :-)

  44. @ Norbold

    That’s an interesting story.

    Actually both SWP and Militant (maybe even the FI) posted ambassadors (residents really) in various Eastern Europen countries in 1990-91, believing that with the collapse of the “Stalinist” regimes, the working class masses would embrace and follow the true revolutionaries (them) and build true Socialism (somewhat contradicting Trotsky’s views about world revolution).

    When these ambassadors reported back that it wasn’t the case, some were promptly expelled. Then of course Militant was dissolved anyway, when Labour expelled all of them in the 1991 by-election in Walton (which already split the group) – their activists were photographed, and identified.

  45. Laszlo

    Trotskyites are so funny (unless you end up trying to debate with them!)

  46. @ Hawthorn

    Yes, it can be a frustrating experience. But it is always the case with Scriptures believers from whatever political or ideological directions they come, so not a Trotkyist prerogative.

  47. @ David Colby,

    I appreciate that the Germans have had a very bad experience with this, but I don’t think you can extrapolate from Hitler to all poorly dressed vegetarians…

    @ Norbold,

    If there is one lesson we can take from history, it’s that the Hard Left has far too much time on its hands…

  48. John Chanin and Laszlo

    [blushes] Thanks for the compliments. Though I’m not actually sure that I could get more sceptical than I was already.

    Of course the real question is whether Corbyn’s hat is Maoist or Trotskyist[1], though obviously it’s also has tendencies towards Dutch Docker.

    [1] Yes I know there’s a difference between Trotskyist and Trotskyite, it’s just that life is too short to remember it.

  49. I’ve said before that I would expect most of the disallowed votes to be duplicates, mainly union members who were already individual members or have signed up since. The figure of just under 190,000 for affiliates looked a bit high at the time, not to have included some full members; only about 100k affiliates who weren’t members voted in 2010. Presumably most duplicates would have been people who responded to an invitation to take part because they were scared, if they refused, they might lose the chance to vote at all.

    But a real worry is the dropping of people who aren’t on the electoral register. There are a number of valid reasons why voters might not be. It’s fine if it’s used to clarify the situation with the voter, not if they are losing their vote automatically. There’s also the issue of which register they are using – it could be out of date.

    Then there’s the dropping of individuals on political grounds. The trouble for Labour is that even if most of these are technically valid, a lot of people won’t see it as that, and the remaining invalid cases will be both ridiculous and much publicised. High profile individuals are the ones most likely to be ‘caught’ but also likely to make the most visible fuss. Stories such as people being banned for a Facebook message, guilt by association or something long in the past will give rise to indignation or mockery.

    This particularly applies to people signing nomination papers, who may well have done so to allow someone to take part in an election, even though they didn’t support them politically. Which of course was the reason that some MPs gave for nominating Corbyn.

    The really ridiculous thing is that they are claiming to do these checks so as to prevent any legal challenge to the result. But if they do exclude people on rather flimsy and ancient grounds, then they are leaving themselves open to legal action if Corbyn loses by a narrow majority. They can claim that their exclusion was unfair and irrational, particularly as the ground for doing so were set retrospectively.

    Ironically if they had left things as they were, it would be almost impossible to prove that the result should have been different because it would be very difficult for a complainant to prove that (a) sufficient people had been included who shouldn’t have been and (b) how they voted would have made that difference. But excluding voters on really flimsy grounds leaves things open to challenge.

    What is more, if it is provable that the exclusions were made with the intention of preventing or electing a particular candidate, it might count as a criminal conspiracy. Because the Leader of the Opposition is paid extra by the State and so conspiring to alter the result involves financial reward for someone.

    The end result is to make the Labour Party look both corrupt and incompetent. They may alienate large numbers of their members and, most important, the unions.

  50. @Spearmint

    “but I don’t think you can extrapolate from Hitler to all poorly dressed vegetarians…”

    In any case Hitler wasn’t a vegetarian. If Corbyn was found to have flunked art school though…

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