ComRes’s monthly telephone poll for the Daily Mail is out today and has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 28%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 9%, GRN 6%. The last time the Conservatives reached the heights of 42% in any poll was way back in 2010. Full tables for the poll are here.

The poll also had a bank of questions on perceptions of the four Labour leadership contenders and whether people would vote for them. In my last post I wrote about how such questions really don’t tell us very much: none of the candidates are well known to the public, and how people would vote with x or y as leader is an extremely hypothetical question – what policies will they follow? How will the media and public react? Will the party be united, split or riven with dissent? I don’t know and neither do the poll respondents.

For what it’s worth though, the main finding here was how little there was to choose between the candidates. ComRes asked if people would vote for Labour with the four candidates, the spread was between Burnham and Corbyn on 22% down to Kendall on 18%. They asked who had what it took to be PM, Burnham, Cooper and Corbyn were essentially in a three way tie on 23%-24%. Given the standard margin of error on a poll this size, it suggests the wider public really aren’t that enthused by any of them.


860 Responses to “ComRes/Daily Mail – CON 42, LAB 28, LDEM 8, UKIP 9, GRN 6”

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  1. Curtice on the MORI Scottish poll

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/09/ipsos-mori-suggest-scotland-would-now-vote-yes/

    Those still hopeful that Corbyn can regain support for Lab from the SNP – at no cost – might note Curtice’s conclusion.

    Ms. Dugdale, like everyone else, will have to await the outcome of the UK Labour leadership contest. Today’s poll suggests that a victory for Mr Corbyn might help her reach out to some existing SNP voters, but at the same time put at risk some of the support she still has. As many as 27% of current SNP supporters say that they would be more likely to vote Labour next May if Mr Corbyn becomes leader, almost matching the 28% who say they would be less likely to do so (a group that doubtless contains many who in any event would never do anything but vote SNP). Yet, at the same time, as many as 30% of current Labour supporters say they would be less likely to vote for the party if Mr Corbyn wins. It certainly seems unlikely that Mr Corbyn’s election would prove to be a magic bullet.

  2. @Oldnat

    In my very humble view, the rise of the SNP is significantly down to the sense of identity the Scottish now feel vs Westminster/London.

    Given that, I don’t see the election of London MP as Leader of the Labour Party making much difference in Scotland.

  3. CMJ

    I agree that most current SNP/Green voters are unlikely to cast their vote for any of the Westminster based parties, in the foreseeable future, but there have been a fair few on here arguing that Corbyn’s election would allow Lab to restore their former glory in Scotland.

    However, the poll revealed that more Scots would consider voting Lab because of Corbyn as the new GB Lab leader than were influenced by Dugdale’s election as branch manager.

    How much importance can be attached to the responses to a “more/less likely” is another matter. Anthony has always suggested “very little”.

  4. There is a nice symmetry about the LiS numbers – 20% in constituencies, 20% on the list – and 20% of them would vote for independence. :-)

  5. @OldNat

    Risking putting off 6% by attracting a potential extra 15% doesn’t sound too hopeless a venture.

  6. Craig

    “Risking putting off 6% by attracting a potential extra 15% doesn’t sound too hopeless a venture.”

    Might not be (if you think more/less likely questions are accurate) – but that rather depends on what the 6% and 15% are percentages of. What are they of?

  7. Craig

    Ah. %s of electorate?

    6% = 30% of Lab & 15% =27% of SNP.

    Though you may want to have a look at the responses of SNP voters when asked what might make them consider voting Lab.

  8. @Oldnat

    As many as 27% of current SNP supporters say that they would be more likely to vote Labour

    Yet, at the same time, as many as 30% of current Labour supporters say they would be less likely to vote for the party if Mr Corbyn wins

    One point.

    27% of 55% is more than 30% of 21% (13.5% v 6.3% respectively). So it’s a Labour winner, it would seem, especially if we factor in that said current Labour supporters are still supporting Labour despite all that has happened. They are unlikely to shift away now.

  9. JOHN MURPHY
    “For the present the public is disengaged from politics and particularly the politics of opposition.’

    Neither aspect of this assertion appears to be true.

  10. CMJ
    ” they will quietly fall in line behind JC, and keep their powder dry. Perhaps they will engage superficially, but also will keep their Brutus-like daggers to hand too.”

    Alternatively, they may emerge as the tough cookies each of them is, and work within a Corbyn leadership to common principles and common purposes and in response to a significantly changed membership. You are, I think, mistaking the mood of the party, and confusing instruments with ideology and broader policy.
    Notably you, and I suspect Cameron, in not recognising a refreshed internationalism driven by recognition of the effects of British behaviour in the Middle East and North Africa,of kow-towing to oil-rich states, and of an unnecessary divide from the Russian confederation, and departure from the European mission, including that of an irrational response to a necessary migration.
    I do not intend this as a partisan encomium for Corbyn, but as recognition of the rational sources of his support in a widely supported attempt to reshape the UK in its its treatment of poverty and of conflict resulting from impoverishment, domestically and internationally.

  11. Not sure if this has been noted, but yesterday it was announced that the huge Eggborough power plant in Yorkshire will close in March. That’s 4% of peak demand capacity off the grid. Along with Longannet closing at the same time, while we should be OK this winter, analysts now believe that for winter 2016/17 for the first time ever we won’t have enough on demmand power to meet peak demand events.

    That’s very bad news for someone.

  12. @John Pilgrim

    There is very little doubt that the Labour Party membership as a whole will support a principled postion taken by Jeremy Corbyn (and Yvette Cooper among others) to support resettling of asylum seekers (or migrants if you take the opposite view) in the UK.

    The problem that they have is that all of the polling evidence suggests that the elecorate as a whole has not moved in the same direction. If anything the opposite is the case. While I have no difficulty in admiring their position from an ethical point of view, politically it is likely play very badly.

  13. John Pilgrim

    “Notably you, and I suspect Cameron, in not recognising a refreshed internationalism driven by recognition of the effects of British behaviour in the Middle East and North Africa,of kow-towing to oil-rich states, and of an unnecessary divide from the Russian confederation, and departure from the European mission, including that of an irrational response to a necessary migration.”

    I suspect the average voter would not have the faintest idea what you are talking about and would ceratinly not agree with your comments about migration.

    Nor would the average voter agree with your talk of domestic impoverishment. It depends how you define impoverishment of course.

    As to the comments about “unecessary divide from the Russian confederation” (Putin dictatorship) IMO that is irrational.

  14. JOHN PILGRIM

    @” a refreshed internationalism driven by recognition of the effects of ………………… an unnecessary divide from the Russian confederation”

    Haven’t detected that down our way , I must say-but perhaps I missed those particular banners.

    An interesting group of economists give their view on Corbynomics this morning in the FT. I make that Deuce on the “economists” front :-)

  15. TOH
    Thanks for your comment. I respect your obviously sincerely held views.
    Let us see whether things pan out as i envisage them. While I agree that the average voter would not share my view or understanding of migration, I think this must change as we become better educated as a nation.
    Regards
    J

  16. COLIN
    “Presumably Corbyn will welcome this example of “refreshed internationalism”
    I suspect “welcome” would not be the right word, but his and any UK position on Syria may well see a changed reltion to both Assad and to Russian influence in relation to in ISIS incursion.

  17. John Pilgrim

    John, while we two might be closer than you think on the question of migration I will be very surprised if we will see the average voter understanding or agreeing with you on immigration, regardless of how better (or otherwise) the British are educated, now and in the future.

    As to Putin, I see him as a real threat to democracy who must be resisted at all costs. Sadly we and the rest of the Europeans are more likely to continue to respond feebly as we did to Hitler in the 30’s..

  18. JOHN PILGRIM

    @”a changed reltion to both Assad and to Russian influence in relation to in ISIS incursion.”

    Ah-is this the meaning of an “ethical foreign policy”?

    Choosing your preferred tyrant? I thought we had learned lesson about that?

  19. Not just the Brits, TOH, but the rest of the world, as I think China and India demonstrate, are likely to respond progressively to a process of education which moves the threat and nature of international competition and conflict – away from those aspects of the 1930’s, and away from a renewal of Bush’s idiotic “crusade” against and conflict with the Islamic world.

  20. COLIN
    “Choosing your preferred tyrant? I thought we had learned lesson about that?”
    Just so – not to remove a Saddam or a Gadaffi without putting a sustainable polity in place for the aftermath.

  21. JOHN

    Indeed-and what is the “sustainable polity” to be after your preferred Putin has kept Assad in charge of some assorted bits of what was Syria?

    Meanwhile this “foreign policy” encourages the Syrian middle classes to cash in their savings & buy boat & train tickets to the safety of a welcoming EU -whilst the Syrian poor do what precisely? Stay at home & pray?

  22. @Colin

    “Presumably Corbyn will welcome this example of “refreshed internationalism””

    You know how it is, the Russians secretly send troops, we secretly send bombers, it’s all part of one process ;)

  23. Apparently Sturgeon’s plans to fix a minimum price for alcohol is a non-starter as the European court’s top lawyer has ruled that it would infringe EU law on free trade.

    Referenda using the wording “independence” should be reserved for questions involving secession from the EU.

  24. @ Craig

    :”Must say, it’s nice to hear your praise for the party I always felt you better suited for!”

    Which party is that? I praise all your parties. I also said that if I was British I would have split my ticket, voting for David Cameron to be Prime Minister while voting Labour down ballot. Of course, that’s not how it works in a Parliamentary system. (But it’s the thought that counts right?).

  25. @ Old Nat

    “I agree that most current SNP/Green voters are unlikely to cast their vote for any of the Westminster based parties, in the foreseeable future, but there have been a fair few on here arguing that Corbyn’s election would allow Lab to restore their former glory in Scotland.”

    I’m of the belief that it’s the collapse of Labour in Scotland that is bringing about the rise of Corbyn. Scots seem more sensible than most (George Galloway aside). And even a lot of the lefties are willing to go with moderates as leaders for the sake of winning overall. Without that stabilizing presence in the party, it lends itself to takeovers from the crazies.

  26. @STATGEEK

    For the voters of every major party Corbyn is a net drag even Labour at a net -3, SNP -2, Conservative -59, Libems -30.

    Only the ‘Others’ Greens, SSP, TUSC have a net positive, so as I suspect Labour will be left scarbbling around against RISE etc for votes if Corbyn is elected. While SNP will happily sweep up the 20% independence supporting Labour voters and Conservatives will go after the unionists.

    Conservatives are doing really badly because of the Tory government but paradoxially breaking with the UK party would be against their whole better together, unionist message. It is a bit of a dilemma

  27. @ Old Nat

    “Only Tory voters have more dissatisfied than satisfied with Nicola – which will cheer up most of the rest of us. :-)”

    Well who doesn’t like Nicola Sturgeon?

    I like Nicola Sturgeon and as you know, I’m still bummed out about JM losing reelection. I don’t know why he can’t come back. My friend John was unceremoniously dumped after 31 years of outstanding public service. 31 years! And in favor of a trio that consisted of (1) a bitter old queen who has regular unprotected leather orgies at his home (even though he’s reportedly allegedly HIV positive), (2) a local neighborhood crazy who sells s** toys off the internet for a living, and (3) the woman who was his ally and who he mentored! You’d think he’d crawl and hide his head in shame. But no.

    Maybe he wanted to do so but I tell you Old Nat, the collective group of his supporters did not give in. We had 48 hours to convince him to file paper work to get him back on the ballot for a June election! We (several hundred of us) called him, emailed him, texted him, all hours of the day and night, threw eggs at his condo tower on La Cienega, showed up unannounced and uninvited at his law classes to plead with him. And you know something, we got him back on that ballot. And then we got to work. All the stops were pulled out. Even Belinda Carlisle threw a concert fundraiser for him. And just three months later, he was reelected in an overwhelming landslide.

    And I don’t see why Labourites can’t do the same for Jim Murphy. I just don’t.

    In any case, I’ve thought that perhaps all three unionist parties should split off from their main parties and form a new Scottish Unionist Party, one that is socially liberal, fiscally moderate, environmentally conscious but with an emphasis on job creation, and a love of all things English. If you think about it, the Scottish Tories are to the left of the English Tories, the last batch of Scottish Labour leaders are Blairites, the Lib Dems fall somewhere in between. Ideologically, is there really that much difference between them all?

  28. @Couper

    I see Ruth Davidson is taking a ‘something must be done’ line.

    “This is not an immigration issue, it’s a humanitarian one, and the human response must be to help. If we don’t, what does that make us?”

    Perhaps something is in the pipeline and she is privy to it. Or maybe she’s just less uncaring than others within her party’s ranks. One eye on 2016 perhaps? (cynic)

  29. @Phil Haines

    This is why the media in particular the BBC is so infuriating. I saw the headlines and the word ‘could’ and realised that it was not definite.

    Looking into it a bit more apparently the issue has been put back to the Scottish courts and the policy CAN BE implemented if it is shown to be the most effective public health measure available.

    So actually the decision is the opposite of what the BBC headlines imply, the door is open for the minimum pricing law to be brought in.

    I can find this out in five minutes why are BBC journalists so useless? They are either incompetent or it is inbuilt anti-Scottish Government bias.

  30. @Couper2802

    I haven’t been anywhere near the BBC website all day. This was what I read in the Guardian, which as the former Manchester Guardian must also be endemically biased against the Scottish Government:

    “Bot’s opinion is expected to mean a final defeat for the Scottish government’s efforts to be the first in Europe to introduce minimum pricing – supported by leading figures in the medical profession and the police, after several years of legal battles. It is highly likely the ECJ in Luxembourg will now uphold complaints from the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) and nine other member states, including France, Spain and Bulgaria, because its judgments rarely contradict an opinion from the advocate general. Bot said: “I feel that, having regard to the principle of proportionality, it is difficult to justify the rules at issue, which appear to me to be less consistent and effective than an ‘increased taxation’ measure and may even be perceived as being discriminatory.”

  31. If they increase the prices on boozing at home, then maybe they could cut the tax a bit on boozin’ down the pub, or as some peeps I know put it, this tax on socialising.

    I drink coffee quite a bit in boozers anyway these days. Peeps used to think it a bit weird but was determined to do my bit to make it seem more normal, even though I do sometimes where a scarf, and these days it seems more acceptable.

    Sometimes you see peeps looking at my coffee and going “they do coffee. That seems like a good idea. Shall we have a coffee? I’d like a coffee, would you like a coffee? Let’s have coffee!! Two coffees please…”

  32. @Couper

    “I can find this out in five minutes why are BBC journalists so useless? They are either incompetent or it is inbuilt anti-Scottish Government bias.”

    ———-

    Why can’t it be both?

  33. @SoCalLiberal

    Great story – but Californians have a track record of giving politicians a second go, haven’t they? The parents of some (northern) Californian friends of mine are of the opinion that Jerry Brown “was a bit of an idiot in the ’70’s” but he’s now the best governor California has ever had.

    I suppose doing the job twice with a gap of 28 years in between allows the person to reflect, mature, become self-aware, learn from mistakes and go into the second round prepared in a way someone new to the job wouldn’t be.

    I sometimes wonder if the solution to Labour’s woes is to get Blair back. His latest article was him at his most self-aware. The defensiveness was gone, he’s starting to understand where he went wrong and he was in how-do-I-solve-2015 mode. Ironically he’s the only person in Labour not harking back to some point in the past but concentrating on the present. Given his formidable skills, he’s probably the only one among them who can come up with something new and fresh.

  34. @John Pilgrim

    My comments were on how I think the right wing of the Labour Party would react following a JC win (particularly based on Chuka’s comments).

    I have personal view from what I think a JC would mean, but that’s for me.

    Notably you, and I suspect Cameron, in not recognising a refreshed internationalism driven by recognition of the effects of British behaviour in the Middle East and North Africa,of kow-towing to oil-rich states, and of an unnecessary divide from the Russian confederation, and departure from the European mission, including that of an irrational response to a necessary migration.

    I made no comment in this issue, and if I did it be very unlikely to one that Cameron would share. Where have I expressed anything that would make you think I would support Cameron’s view on any part of foreign policy?

  35. I sometimes wonder if the solution to Labour’s woes is to get Blair back.

    Getting him to sign the register of members’ interests might be an issue.

  36. “Great story – but Californians have a track record of giving politicians a second go, haven’t they?”

    ————-

    It does seem extraordinarily lenient. I mean, I’ve got issues with giving them a first go…

  37. @Phil Haines

    Well the Scottish Government are taking it back to the Scottish Courts and are confident that the public health issues apply.

  38. @phil haines

    Well if you read the btl comments you will see that some who appear to know about the EC process dispute Severin Carrell’s interpretation of the significance of the opinion from the AG. As does Nicola Sturgeon.

    It looks like lazy journalism based on a briefing from the SWA without taking time to get other views.

  39. Regarding the reaction of the UK to what is going on a Calais.

    My daughter aged 6 get really attached to her belongings. My wife was gathering some things to donate to the desitute people there, and and my daughter, on her own volition, has offered to send he favourite Rapunzel sleeping bag “to help keep other children cuddly and warm”.

    What a star!

  40. @The Monk

    He can always divest himself of all his interests before he enters the fray.

    Seriously, he’s younger than Corbyn by 4 years, and he’s a known quantity – people pretty much know exactly what they are getting. And politicians of his calibre come along once every forty years, so it’s a choice of him or someone mediocre. In the 19th C people accepted this, see the Gladstone v Disraeli battles. They didn’t discard either and pick mediocre substitutes.

    Of course he has his flaws, but provided he is capable of learning from his mistakes, why not choose him instead of this futile search for a Messiah that doesn’t exist? (The Cleggasm was all about “the new messiah” and it appears that 18% of Corbyn’s voters voted for Clegg and instead of concluding Messiahs don’t exist, they’re onto their next messiah.)

  41. Seriously, he’s younger than Corbyn by 4 years, and he’s a known quantity – people pretty much know exactly what they are getting. And politicians of his calibre come along once every forty years…

    …and instead of concluding Messiahs don’t exist, they’re onto their next messiah.)”

    ———

    What if…
    …Blair isn’t the Messiah either?

  42. Top bit should be in quotes…

  43. COLIN
    “Putin has kept Assad in charge of some assorted bits of what was Syria?
    Meanwhile this “foreign policy” encourages the Syrian middle classes to cash in their savings & buy boat & train tickets to the safety of a welcoming EU -whilst the Syrian poor do what precisely? Stay at home & pray?”

    Go on growing crops, providing services to the city, and sending their children to school, while enjoying an unaccustomed equality of women with men in the work place, I should think. Don’t knock it.
    I remember seeing young Yemeni women in blue overalls mending caterpillar tractors during the Soivet period there, while on a mission for IFAD and the Arab Fund.

  44. So the Scottish Government has organised a Refugee Summit for tomorrow to determine what Scotland can do to help. As well as council leaders, charities, churches they have invited the leaders of the other Scottish Parties.

    Labour and LibDem leaders immediately accepted the invite at First Ministers Questions. Ruth Davidson Conservative leader did not. Why not? It could be a good opportunity for her to differentiate herself from Westminster but is she allowed to? brave enough?

  45. @Carfrew

    Well, duh, we all know he has flaws. Selecting Blair now is the anti-messiah choice – it’s about acknowledging that humans can never be perfect, will always make mistakes and the best we can hope for is that they learn from their mistakes.

    In reality there is no perfect leader, it’s actually a choice between someone new who is bound to make new mistakes, and someone who has already made mistakes and has learnt from it.

    In business it’s pretty much accepted that new recruits will be useless for their first year as they learn a new job, plus learn a new culture plus have to deal with new colleagues. That’s why they try to have as little staff turnover as possible.

    Politics is the only area that says “lets give people with zero experience a go”. That always plays into the hands of the incumbent: they make their mistakes in the first two years and then get better (in the case of Dubya Bush, he didn’t improve till year six). By the next election you’ve got experienced incumbent vs inexperienced challenger, and experience always wins unless there is a monumental cock-up.

    But what if we went back to how they did things in the late 19thC and both the govt and the opposition offered the choice of experience? Then it would come down to policy differences.

    FWIW, it isn’t just Jerry Brown who has made a better fist of his second go at governing. By all accounts Ken Livingstone was much improved in his second go at Mayor, he’d made peace with the City second time around.

  46. @Candy

    “Well, duh, we all know he has flaws. Selecting Blair now is the anti-messiah choice”

    ———

    Yeah, but you said people “of his calibre only come along once every forty years”.

    Not convinced of his messianic qualities in this regard, given that he was up against an opposition so toxic they couldn’t even even win outright against calamity BROWN, after the worst financial crisis in living memory.

  47. @Carfrew

    Having talent at politics does not make you a “messiah”. Messiahs by definition are saints, immune to making any mistakes and will supernaturally do the right thing at the right time, every single time.

    Blair is the most talented politician in decades, but he’s definitely not a messiah – former Labour people hate him precisely because he’s all too human.

    I disagree with you that “anyone” could have won in 1997. It’s true that John Smith had a mid-term lead, but so did Kinnock, William Hague, IDS and Miliband. Miliband was on 40% just a year before the election. Blair is the only politician to have won an election on his first go since Thatcher, and like her the only one to have won three times – which makes him a once in a generation type leader.

    Also consider why Miliband lost in 2015. Was it down to policies (some of which got copied by Osborne) or was it because people thought he just didn’t have it in him to be a good prime minister? But what if you have someone whom you know can do the job (’cause already done it successfully) – then it comes down to policy differences between govt and challenger.

  48. @Candy

    “But what if you have someone whom you know can do the job”

    It’s not really a question of whether they could do the job, anyone could do the job, but whether they would do it well. And on that score I suspect that Blair carries some baggage – which is part of the problem, someone attempting the Second Coming carries with them the mistakes people remember so has a double duty of convincing people that they have learned from their mistakes, whilst also convincing them that they are the right candidate for now.

    Look at Kevin Rudd in Australia – he came back and he got crushed.

    All this is academic though, as I suspect it will be a remarkably cold day in hell before Blair dips his toes into the British electoral waters again.

  49. @Candy

    Lovin’ the way your eulogy to Blair is not Messianic, but others choosing Corbyn are stereotyped as following the Messiah.

    Correlation is not causation. Just because Blair won three elections does not make him brilliant. You have to take other factors into account, including the quality of the Opposition.

    You may disagree that others could have won those elections. I put it to you this is fanciful, on account of what happened in 2010.

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