ComRes’s monthly telephone poll for the Daily Mail is out today and has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 28%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 9%, GRN 6%. The last time the Conservatives reached the heights of 42% in any poll was way back in 2010. Full tables for the poll are here.

The poll also had a bank of questions on perceptions of the four Labour leadership contenders and whether people would vote for them. In my last post I wrote about how such questions really don’t tell us very much: none of the candidates are well known to the public, and how people would vote with x or y as leader is an extremely hypothetical question – what policies will they follow? How will the media and public react? Will the party be united, split or riven with dissent? I don’t know and neither do the poll respondents.

For what it’s worth though, the main finding here was how little there was to choose between the candidates. ComRes asked if people would vote for Labour with the four candidates, the spread was between Burnham and Corbyn on 22% down to Kendall on 18%. They asked who had what it took to be PM, Burnham, Cooper and Corbyn were essentially in a three way tie on 23%-24%. Given the standard margin of error on a poll this size, it suggests the wider public really aren’t that enthused by any of them.


860 Responses to “ComRes/Daily Mail – CON 42, LAB 28, LDEM 8, UKIP 9, GRN 6”

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  1. Labour leadership contest turmoil is having effects on VI as one might expect (though MOE caution applies, obvs). With similar caution I note a lowish UKIP result there.

    I don’t know to what extent this has fed through into national media yet, and might have thus affected UKIP’s fortunes, but the UK’s only UKIP-controlled council here in Thanet is in turmoil and already descending into infighting over the Manston airport issue (the main campaign ticket that got them elected)

    http://www.thanetgazette.co.uk/UKIP-turmoil-Statement-councillors-Helen-Smith/story-27661535-detail/story.html

  2. @ Lurking Gherkin,

    It isn’t, unless it’s making the Tories more popular by contrast. ComRes’s post election Labour VIs have been 29, 27, 28, 29, so this poll is dead average.

    Which is actually kind of impressive, given the sheer terribleness of this leadership race. What would the candidates have to do to lower Labour’s VI, stage a kitten eating contest?

  3. There are a number of polls out there recently which do not agree with other. They are probably all wrong.

  4. Well miliband turned the tory poll lead round by january 2011 ,how long will it take corbyn.?

  5. Can anyone explain the contradiction between the headline Labour voting intention (28%) and the much lower figures forfor Labour voting intention for ANY of the potential leaders?

    Is the figure who would vote Labour 28% or 22%?

  6. The only people likely to be happy with tis poll are the Tories.

    It s not just Labour who are down to their base of about 28 – 29%; but the smaller parties too.

    I know that it is the August after the election and, leaving aside Labour who have tangled themselves up in an almost undennding leadership election, all the English (and Welsh) oppositions parties are away metaphorically licking their wounds.

    However, the first months after the election are important to set the tone as to who can get up and take the fight to the Tories. None of the opposition parites seem to have any fire left to get under way for the next five year marathon.

  7. I posted on the previous thread that I thought the Tories were a little low in this poll. I also think, that with the markets adjusting to the new Chinese reality, no panic, good profits made, and of course if Corbyn wins the leadership contest, I can see Labour dropping to the low 20’s, with the Tories high 40’s.

  8. Ken

    They haven’t cottoned yet that the cut in Chinese rates is because their underlying economy is in bad shape. This is far more important than the collapse in their stock market bubble.

    The biggest risers are those stocks which rely on China (miners and tech) which suggests that this is the usual transient phase of “bargain” hunting.

  9. Ken, unless there is a major split in the Labour Party I do not see them going down below about 25% as this is the base vote of tribalists who will vote Labour regardless. In fact, Labour are more or less down to their core vote now.

  10. HAWTHORN……..True, but I don’t think there will be too much of an overreaction, the Chinese govt are making the right moves, besides, the dynamics of the Chinese overall economic model don’t lend themselves to the sort of meltdown recently experienced in the West. ( He says, hopefully ) :-)

  11. Ken

    The problem is that China is too corrupt for me to have any confidence in their financial system, which is the big problem there.

    They might keep the show on the road for now but their debt will need a write-down at some point (probably the nasty way).

  12. Ken
    I don’t want to do a Paddy Ashdown but if Labour drop down to the low 20’s CONCISTENTLY I’ll eat my hat.

    As Frederic said Labour are at their core vote which is in the high 20’s and that’s assuming they don’t pick up a single Green, SNP or Plaid voter which there is every reason to believe a Corbyn leadership might do.

    As I keep saying its to early to tell what effect Corbyn will have but I’m pretty confident Labour are close to their nadir at the moment. Assuming there is no split in the Labour party the worst effect Corbyn will have will be to keep Labour at this low point for however many years. I highly doubt they’ll slip much further back.

  13. Comparing the debt profile of China with the West is very misleading. China has a very low sovereign debt to GDP ratio (under 40%) so no issues there.

    There probably are issues around corporate debt but the Chinese banking system is essentially an arm of government – problems with balance sheets that were the main cause of the 2008 meltdown just don’t apply.

  14. Spearmint (fpt)

    Basically every New Labourite other than John Prescott should spend the next few years hiding under a rock, and from the looks of things they will get that opportunity.

    Yes, when the lone voice of sanity in the Labour establishment is John Prescott, you realise just how bad things have got with them. Alas hiding under a rock is another thing that they don’t seem to have much of an aptitude for.

    You only have to look at the aforementioned Mr McTernan, who who recently penned a piece attacking Unite’s leadership for ‘forcing’ Jim Murphy to resign purely because Labour had lost 40 out of 41 seats including Murphy’s own. The same gentleman is rather less forgiving when setting deadlines for a Corbyn leadership, even after he eventually got it in his head that you couldn’t mount a coup straight off under Labour’s constitution. It doesn’t suggest much of the humility or self-knowledge that would result in a period of Trappism.

    Of course the media have to also take some blame as well, particularly those sections claiming to be friendly towards Labour or its ideals, who are not exactly doing that here. While the preference for conflict over content is pretty much the rule in the media, the showcasing of every one-time Labour grandee to denounce Corbyn and the process that could elect him[1] is starting to look a bit desperate[2]. When even Charles Clarke has been disinterred, it’s probably time to suggest a change of strategy.

    [1] Even though many of them were the prime movers in setting up the new system. Does anyone ever point this out to them?

    [2] Though to be fair, if anyone has the right to channel the spirit of Hyacinth Bucket it’s Betty Boothroyd

  15. THE MONK

    Private debt is a far bigger problem than public debt. Private debt was (and is) the problem in the UK as well. The UK also has a low public debt/GDP ratio compared to most advanced economies.

    High private debt is a particular problem in China where they are supposed to be trying to stimulate domestic demand (high private debt overhang).

  16. Slighlty amused by the fact that the people who appear to be trumpeting this poll as evidence that ‘Corbyn will be a disaster, a disaster I tell you!’ are also, by and large, the same people who think Kendall would be the best option for the Labour party…

    In truth we’re not really going to know what impact Corbyn might have on their ratings until after he is elected – if he is elected.

    Will Labour’s polls drop, clearly evidence of the dangers of electing some doddering old fool offering silly solutions to problems? Or will Labour’s support rise, clear evidence of a delayed reaction to Harman’s brave decision to abstain on the welfare bill, that restored Labour’s credibility, that will now be destroyed by Corbyn.

    Time will tell I suppose ;)

  17. FREDERIC STANSFIELD……..I’m not sure that the ‘ core vote ‘ can be relied upon in circumstances such as those we are about to witness, I believe that Labour will split, with the Blairite faction unable to stomach the Corbyn manner, a drift to the centre right would be natural for them, it will, IMO, turn nasty.

  18. ROGER MEXICO

    The Blairites wanted a mass membership party. Well, they got one.

    Surprisingly, the masses do not have the same values and beliefs as Oxford PPE graduates (like me in case people think I am being chippy).

  19. Hawthorn

    There is a major difference between private debt in C|hina and in the West. In China corporate and private debt is owed to the state. It can be eased in a number of ways: write downs and a higher rate of inflation among others. In any case that won’t lead to systemic risk for the banking system – the state will just absorb it.

    It’s not necessarily an ideal state of affairs but much less damaging than when the impact of indebtedness affects the core capital in the banking system,

  20. RIVERS10……Cut up your hat, mix with a banana and mango, add a dash of limoncello, liquidise, voila, hat smoothie ! :-)

  21. hawthorn

    The Blairites wanted a party without direct Trades Union involvement (only 45 quid individual members) and that did not invite the whole world and their social media mates to hop on the latest bandwagon for 3 quid a pop.

    This system is what EdM wanted- perhaps thinking he would be reflected upon more sympathetically due to the calibre of his successor? No that’s the conspiracy theory- I always tend to go for the other one…

    Key takeaway: this is the biggest Tory lead since 2010 and their joint biggest in government since 1991!

  22. THE MONK

    Allowing the state to absorb private sector debt would be possible to an extent (that is effectively what happened in the UK with the bank bailouts in 2008-10). Indeed, that is what a central bank is for (lender of last resort).

    The problem comes with the shadow banking system, the real economy effects which would happen anyway and great difficulty in any economy generating inflation nowadays.

  23. @KEN
    “I believe that Labour will split, with the Blairite faction unable to stomach the Corbyn manner,”

    That won’t happen as the Blairites have their careers to think about. Chuka is already denying on twitter any plotting and says no matter who is elected we should get behind the leader.

    Chuka Umunna
    @ChukaUmunna
    As I’ve said before, whatever the result, its important we come together after the leadership contest. End of story

  24. Good afternoon all from a sunny and breezy Mount Florida.

    CON 42, LAB 28,…..

    ” none of the candidates are well known to the public”

    “They asked who had what it took to be PM, Burnham, Cooper and Corbyn were essentially in a three way tie on 23%-24%. Given the standard margin of error on a poll this size, it suggests the wider public really aren’t that enthused by any of them”
    ________

    I don’t know if anyone else has noticed this but it’s not looking good for Labour.

  25. @AC

    Far too early to say. No-one is leader yet.

  26. I would be interested to hear what the various contributors on this site would suggest might be the potential high/low point in a general election vote for a Corbyn led labour party whether they be pro or anti Corbyn , labour or members/supporters of other parties across the political spectrum as it would be for me at least quite fascinating to get a general sense of the gut feelings or perceived nature of the likely outcome in the event of a socialist programme of change being offered to the wider electorate and whether they believe or not there could be any noticeable positive impact on there prediction if say another figure with a broadly similar set of policies but none of Mr corbyn’s historical baggage where to replace him before 2020.

  27. Mark Sadler

    https://oliverobservations.wordpress.com/2013/04/01/just-how-bad-was-the-1983-election-for-labour/

    All you need to know about the likely outcome if Corbyn wins.

  28. I wonder why Jack Straw is not being expelled from the LP. He might be an entryist.

    “The Labour Party has turned on its former Home Secretary Jack Straw, accusing him of conniving with the Tories to dismantle the Freedom of Information Act.
    The Cabinet Office minister Matthew Hancock insisted the review had cross-party support with Labour being represented by Mr Straw …
    Labour denies this and revealed that the party’s shadow Justice Secretary, Lord Falconer, and acting leader, Harriet Harman, had made it clear to Mr Straw that they did not want him to serve on the committee. ”
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-accuses-jack-straw-of-conniving-with-tories-to-dismantle-freedom-of-information-act-10470074.html

  29. @Mark Sadler

    My guess 2020 GE with Corbyn as leader

    Labour 18% – low 12% (split), high 25% (no split)

    If Corbyn makes it that far the party may have split and the Blairites&Brownites wil be in a new party. In fact I can forsee then following

    Old Labour – 12%
    New Labour – 20%
    Tories – loads

  30. KEN

    ” I believe that Labour will split, with the Blairite faction unable to stomach the Corbyn manner, a drift to the centre right would be natural for them, it will, IMO, turn nasty”
    ________

    The party is already split and it’s already turned nasty. In 3 weeks time when Corby is elected the split will official.

    Day after day we have watched the party implode into a disaster with 3 candidates bashing Corby along with a raft of ex leaders. How can the party ever unite when Corby is elected?

    David Cameron will be overwhelmed by the amount of ammo at his disposal when he faces JC at P-M-Q’s. The Gog and Magog War will look like a picnic in comparison.

  31. Mark Sadler.

    High watermark 43-45%
    Low watermark 27-30%

    Corbyn will poll in the high thirties within the first couple of months. What happens from there depends on a multiplicity of influences, but I’m of the opinion that a great many of the careerists will become strangely and bizarely quietened…for a while at least. Behind the scenes it will be a different story.

    No way will the party split.

  32. MARK SADLER

    Provided Cons resist the temptation to move rightish , but consolidate the centre ground Corbyn vacates -and for me that means a GO leadership-then I think Cons will hammer a Corbyn lead Labour.

    Wouldn’t forecast numbers-but an increased Tory OM.

  33. LIZH……..I read on a previous thread that Corbs had only got the support of 20 or so, Labour MP’s. Does he possess the personal qualities, and charisma, to win the genuine backing of all those disillusioned and disappointed others ?
    He appeals to a typical Leftie cohort of politically savvy youngsters, and dyed in the wool Socialist Utopia seekers, people who want to get rid of the, ‘orrible’ Tories, above all else. Unfortunately, you need a Blair for that, Corbyn, with his eccentric demeanour is too narrow in his appeal, IMO, of course. :-)

  34. Rob Sheffield

    The Tories have the highest VI since their last honeymoon – well whoopee doo.

    It is equally possible that people could have signed up because they were enthused by Liz Kendall. Instead of moaning and briefing their mates in The Times, perhaps the Blairites could actually come up with some ideas what will inspire people.

    At the moment, it seems that Blairites imagine that the effect of an economic policy depends on who is implementing that policy, rather than the actual content of the policy. I have no preference about which party shafts working people and wrecks the economy. Therefore shouting “ooh, nasty Tory” is not going to persuade me because I am not sufficiently partisan.

    I don’t want Corbyn to be leader either, but blaming everyone else is what losers do.

  35. …ideas that will…

  36. @KEN
    “Unfortunately, you need a Blair for that, Corbyn, with his eccentric demeanour is too narrow in his appeal”

    They tried with Kendall but she is coming last. How come no one has been enthused enough to pay £3 to back Blairism.

    “.I read on a previous thread that Corbs had only got the support of 20 or so, Labour MP’s.”

    A fair number of LP MPs are Blairites and no wonder they didn’t want him. What really matters is that LP supporters want Corbyn because only they can put a Lab PM in No.10. And going by the number that have signed up Corbyn has the support of the voters.

  37. @ The Monk and Hawthorn

    China has a multilayered governance structure in which the provinces control the majority of funds. The public debt of the provinces (through a very intriguing bond structure that may interest Ken :-)) is probably higher than the GDP, but these are only estimates (or guesstimates – who knows). Of course, the communist party can do certain things to bring the provinces to the line, but it hasn’t been very successful with it so far).

    Colin put out figures on unused capacities in steel industry a few days ago. It is probably the same for several others. I commented sometime in the winter that China’s fastest growing construction sector is warehouse building. It is the nature of the Fordist model that they copied from the Americans (but those started to abandon it in the 1960s).

    This creates both social problems and centrifugal effects among provinces. The central government has resources to cope with it in a short term, but that’s it.

    The first capitalist recession in China would be a rather unpleasant world experience.

  38. RIVERS10

    “I don’t want to do a Paddy Ashdown but if Labour drop down to the low 20’s CONCISTENTLY I’ll eat my hat.”

    ————

    Don’t wanna do Paddy down or anything, but if I were you, maybe reconsider following his lead on this? Cuz Paddy’s idea means that if he’s wrong, he eats the hat. Which is only a good deal if you like the great taste of hats. A much better deal, would be that if he’s wrong, someone else gets to eat the hat.*

    Of course, nowadays, they cheat and you might eat a cake that looks like a hat. But you can’t take anything for granted these days and best not to take any chances.

    * I’d offer but kinda played out on the hat-eating thing myself. (Might get someone in the polling industry to do it, they seem to eat hats for a living…)

  39. Also, it’s bad enough eating just the one hat, but doing it CONSISTENTLY as you suggest is summat else…

  40. LIZH

    @”Corbyn has the support of the voters.”

    Mmm-22% of them-or 28% if you want to be kind.

    And the “voters” are no more enthusiastic about him than Burnham.

  41. Laszlo

    I’m having problems visualising what a Chinese recession would look like. It’s not really going to be a classic capitalist recession as China is far from being a capitalist country.

    But at this stage we’re not really talking about recession – just not continuing the levels of growth that China has seen in the last 20 years.

    My hunch is that the main problems would be political in how the party deals with disappointed expectations. But at this stage the outcome is unknowable.

  42. @Colin

    Corbyn has more support than the Blairites including Burnham.

  43. LIZH

    Where?

    What Poll ?

  44. CARFREW……Ahhh! But a Limoncello flavoured, hat smoothie, might have a certain Amalfi appeal. :-)

  45. @ The Monk

    It is a different type of a capitalist economy, mainly because of the role of the active developmental state, but it is not less capitalist than, let’s say Korea in the late 1970s, 1980s.

    One of the troubles they have is not the margins, but profit above the cost of investment. You can finance this for a few while, but then you have to destroy the assets, or at least the value of assets to restore RoIC.

  46. Colin,

    You prove anything with polls. Even the truth…

  47. @Colin

    “Bookmakers are united in predicting a Jeremy Corbyn victory in the race to be the next Labour leader.
    The left-winger is the overwhelming favourite, with punters at William Hill having to stake £10 for the chance of winning just £3.
    The latest odds are Jeremy Corbyn, 3/10; Andy Burnham 10/3; Yvette Cooper 8/1; and Liz Kendall 100/1.
    Paddy Power has already paid out £100,000 on bets
    AND
    Pictures speak louder than words:
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/25/labour-leadership-bbc-5-live-hustings-burnham-cooper-kendall-corbyn

    Enough proof for me.

  48. That said, I find the answers to the “would you vote for Labour if X was leader” question at best puzzling, and at worst unbelievable. At the very least, I’d like to see figures for some comparative questions asked in the past, including for the Tories.

  49. Colin/LizH,

    I think that Colin may have misread LizH’s comment.

  50. LIZH

    Ah-we were at cross purposes.

    I was refering to the UK Electorate-the people who vote MPs & Governments in. ie around 30 m people.

    You are refering to the Labour Party Electorate-about 600k people I believe.

    Sorry for the confusion.

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