ICM have released their August poll for the Guardian. Topline voting intention figures are CON 40%, LAB 31%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 4%. Full tables are here.

This is the first ICM poll since the election to feature an updated methodology in light of the polling error. Since 1993 or so ICM have reallocated people who don’t give a voting intention based on how they say they voted at the previous election. Colloquially this is often known as a “shy Tory” adjustment, as when it was initially introduced in the 1992 to 1997 Parliament it tended to help the Tories, though after the Iraq war it actually tended to be a “shy Labour” adjustment, and in the last Parliament it was a “shy Lib Dem” adjustment.

In practice ICM didn’t reallocate all their don’t knows and refusals as many people who refuse to give a current voting intention also refuse to say how they voted at the last election (ICM call these people “total refusals”, as opposed to “partial refusals” who say how they voted last time but not this time). Under the new method ICM are also attempting to estimate the views of these “total refusals” – they are reallocated at the same rate as “partial refusals” but are assumed to split slightly more in favour of the Conservatives, based upon what ICM found in their post-election re-contact survey. The effect on this change on ICM’s headline figures this month is to increase the level of Conservative support by one point and decrease Labour support by one point.

The implication of this adjustment is that at least some of the error at the general election was down to traditional “shy Tories”, that those who refused to answer pollsters’ questions were disproportionately Conservative supporters. However, from being on panels with Martin Boon since the election and hearing him speak at the British Polling Council inquiry meeting I don’t think he’ll have concluded that “shy Tories” was the whole of the problem, and in ICM’s tables they are clear that they “expect to produce further methodological innovations in the future.”


689 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 40, LAB 31, LDEM 7, UKIP 10, GRN 4”

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  1. LASZLO…….Events, dear boy, events’, the first one is Worzel Gummidge leading the Labour Party. :-)

  2. @Ken

    Beards are in tho’, and quite a few beardies on this board, and not just left wing beards…

  3. CARFREW……..The postwar legend that the American Germans were better than the Russian Germans still holds true, IMO. :-)

  4. Rob

    If the country wants a right-wing government, they will vote one in.

    Labour’s job is to persuade them otherwise.

    If the left can persuade the UK mainstream to pretty much adopt the whole New Left social agenda on Women’s rights, Gay rights etc then it ought to be possible to persuade the public to try Keynesianism. If Obama could do it in the USA, then it should be possible here given effective leadership.

  5. “Between 1945 and 1983 the country had moved to the right.”

    ———–

    Did it? Or did the left wing vote split? How much is it one or the other, is perhaps the issue…

    It’s not like Tory vote kept growing…

    Plus, things can revert. E.g. renationalisation may have become more popular following what happened with rail, energy prices etc. (if there’s any polling to show that trend?)

  6. @KEN

    “CARFREW……..The postwar legend that the American Germans were better than the Russian Germans still holds true, IMO. :-)”

    ————-

    Lol, Ken. When it comes to nuclear, Russian spies were pretty handy though.

    And we gave a lot of our tech to the Americans too…

  7. CARFREW…….Sorry old chap, dahn ‘ere in Sarf Landon, the trend setting heart of world fashion, beards are so, ‘ yesterday’. My advice to JC, lose the JC look, get the metro- sexual vibe, a nice suit, silk tie, and for goodness sake, if you don’t, at least, avoid eating in public. He does seem to be locked into his image though, messy. :-)

  8. @Laszlo

    Yep, take your point about large scale production, and managing it being critical. Of all the innovations of the US Apollo space programme, which involved so many people, a critical aspect was the development of new project management techniques still in use today.

  9. CARFREW……We swapped the cavity magnetron for a crude bombsight, the Yanks were always able to manipulate us, something to do with Oxbridge, I think. :-)

  10. Survation poll

    While AW rightly doubts the value of “are you more or less likely to ..” questions there may be some in the responses of those couldn’t be arsed to vote in May, as to how they respond to the 4 Lab candidates.

    A popular interpretation is that non-voters were disenchanted by right-centrist Labour and would flock to a Socialist party (as with the SNP).

    Survation numbers seem to suggest an alternative reality.

    Candidate, More likely, no diff, less likely (non-voters only)

    LK, 34.5%, 40.5%, 16.1%
    JC, 31.1%, 52.8%, 7.1%
    YC, 30%, 49%, 15.1%
    AB, 22.5%, 52.8%, 19.7%

  11. CARFREW…..Incidentally, I voted for the cavity magnetron as the greatest British scientific development of the 20th Century, in a competition, didn’t win, should have. :-)

  12. @Ken

    Wasn’t just the Cavity Magnetron we gave away in the Tizard Mission, lol. It was Whittle’s jet engine, and we’d figured out stuff like the critical mass for the Manhattan thing, and those are just highlights. Self-sealing fuel tanks, plastic explosives etc… The Cavity Magnetron was particularly important at the time because it allowed centimetric radar for detecting sub’s from planes; in peacetime it’s most commonly used in Microwave ovens.

    And there’s the thing, it isn’t just what we gave in the war. Crucially we kept giving stuff after the war. The computing stuff, the secret to supersonic flight – the moveable tailplane – prior to which US attempts kept spinning outta control…

  13. Subs, not sub’s, to save Oldnats blood pressure…

  14. @Ken

    The Ruskies seemed quite fond of Oxbridge…

    Interesting about the greatest scientific development. Not sure myself. S’pose I should say penicillin or summat for purposes of board harmony…

  15. Carfrew

    “Oldnats”??? Shouldn’t there be an apostrophe in there somewhere – even if you are assuming that I have multiplied into many individuals? :-)

  16. @Oldnat

    Yes. Prolly autocorrect again. If you wish to devote your life to battling autocorrect in post-after-post guess that’s your choice. (Personally I despair at automod rather more, ‘cos that’s, like, wilful…)

  17. CARFREW……I’m surprised that you haven’t picked up on the Thorium content, albeit small, in every magnetron. :-)

  18. And on that bombshell……off to bed, night all.

  19. Carfrew

    Thanks for the favour. I have nominated one of my clones for voluntary self-decapitation, and another to have the high blood pressure.

    That leaves me free to write posts on polling!

  20. @KEN

    “CARFREW……I’m surprised that you haven’t picked up on the Thorium content, albeit small, in every magnetron. :-)”

    ————

    Lol, yes, I missed that!! Good spot Ken…

  21. I’m onto summat with the beard thing tho’, Ken…

  22. @Oldnat(s)

    No probs. Night all…

  23. OLD NAT
    “Reports from his meetings suggest that he didn’t actually mention Scotland or Scottish issues.
    That may not matter to the remnant LiS members, but may well not entice ex-Lab Scots voters to return to the fold.”

    I went to his Edinburgh meeting yesterday – packed and with an overflow crowd in another room, and brilliantly and professionally organised. You’re missiing a couple of points – he had clearly cottoned on to the fact that we were there to hear socialist solutions to UK political problems; and – at constituency level, not quite understood by other candidates in the leadership election, there is a strong tide towards an LP in Scotland which is continues to be unified with the UK Labour Party – its his offering a genuinely felt unifying concern for socialist solutions in a UK political setting that may, by all reports and on the evidence of yesterday’s meeting, be attractive to Yes voters on the fence or in the SNP.
    The one point I found doubtful in Jeremy’s speech was a reference at the end to the fact that he represents an inner city constituency – Islington, Jeremy?

  24. Lol, that Survation poll showed clips of… the women trying to explain Labour’s position on welfare, Corbyn arguing for rail renationalisation, and Burnham arguing that David Cameron needs to deliver immigration reforms.

    I am sure that is a completely fair sample of policies that in no way influenced the results.

    I guess there’s an argument that Corbyn’s policies are so out there that they will move the conversation on from welfare and immigration in a way Labour desperately needs, but honestly, how hard was it to use a hustings clip in which they all answer the same question!?

  25. @ John Pilgrim,

    According to the Index of Multiple Deprivation Islington is the eighth most deprived area in the country and the fourth most deprived in London, so I don’t think it’s an unreasonable description in the figurative sense (and of course in the literal sense it is located in inner London).

    Re. Labour’s Scotland strategy, in a game of “Standing up for Scottish interests!” Labour will always lose to the SNP unless Scotland goes independent. It’s self-evident that a national party will never be able to advocate for Scotland as single-mindedly as a regional party.

    They have to make and win a unionist argument based on socialist values, or they’re dead. They may well be dead- in the modern context that argument may be unwinnable- but there is absolutely no future in the Jim Murphy strategy of trying to triangulate towards Scottish nationalism. That’s a game the SNP will always win. So I think Corbyn’s approach probably makes more sense than adopting a Scotland-specific approach.

  26. John Pilgrim

    Thanks for the comment.

    You confirm my point that the remnants of LiS would probably be unconcerned at Corbyn’s stance of not mentioning Scottish issues when in Scotland.

    Not that I have a problem with a Lab strategy of accepting that the chances of electoral success in Scotland are minimal.

    LiE&W under Corbyn could work well with the SNP on whole UK matters. A progressive alliance, drawing support from parties across the UK, is probably the best chance of avoiding the domination of Westminster by the sectional interests of the Tory Party.

  27. Kezia Dugdale and Alex Rowley elected new leaders of the Scottish Labour Party.

  28. ‘If the country wants a right-wing government, they will vote one in.’ Hawthorn.

    Of course two thirds of the country voted against the rightwing government we now have – but due to our bizarre voting system the rightwingers got in and claim a mandate…

  29. SPEARMINT and OLD NAT
    Thanks. Yes, I agree with your positions and think that that about sums it up. What will be really, really interesting now is to see JC as Labour., who he appoints to his shadow cabinet, how he combines with Sturgeon on specific public, defence and migration policies, and with Kesia in strengthening LIS or restoring it to the UK party fold, and what happens at PMQ’s in the Autumn.
    Spearmint, my experience as a gardner Grade II, for the Islington Borough Council while studying at Birkbeck must be out of date – thanks for the correction – but what an interesting mix of workers and intellectuals the Islington Socialist Soviet Peoples’ Republic must represent!

  30. corr. Labour leader

  31. Good morning all from a sunny Giffnock.

    JACK

    “Of course two thirds of the country voted against the rightwing government we now have – but due to our bizarre voting system the rightwingers got in and claim a mandate”
    _______

    Two wrongs don’t make a right (no pun intended) but Blair won a majority in 2005 on a smaller percentage than the Tories won in 2015.
    Even worse…Blair won 355 seats with 35.2% in 2005 the Tories won 330 seats with 36.9% in 2015 so please, no crocodile tears over our current voting system (which I’m against) when Labour had 13 years to change it.

  32. MRNAMELESS

    “Kezia Dugdale and Alex Rowley elected new leaders of the Scottish Labour Party”
    _______

    The two main political parties in Scotland, SNP Holyrood group and SNP Westminster group wont be that concerned regarding Labour’s branch office newly elected managers.

    The branch office in Scotland want to be more autonomous from the UK Labour party but this comes with a warning.

    ” And Scottish Labour? Well, ironically they’d be stymied by their own ‘autonomy’. Corbyn would stay on good terms with the SNP – which would mean the latter getting credit for all manner of things in Scotland – and the UK Labour Party would contribute financially far less to a Scottish ‘party’ which insisted it didn’t need to look to England when making any of its decisions, while contributing 1/56th of the votes available from the SNP.”

    Former Labour MP Eric Joyce.

    It’s not looking good!! ;-(

  33. ALLAN
    You and former MP Eric Joyce – now there’s a fount of integrity and sound judgement to be reckoned with!!

  34. Survation:

    CON – 38% (-2)
    LAB – 33% (+2)
    UKIP – 15% (+3)
    LDEM – 6% (-)
    GRN – 3% (-)

  35. This is directed primarily at Ken but is also for anyone who seriously thinks Corbyn’s beard is a liability…..beards are cool at the moment, walk down any trendy part of a city and the amount of young hipster peeps with them is telling.

    “Anecdotal evidence alert”
    Hell I’ve now got a beard (more due to the fact that I find shaving tedious) and going out for the first time since I’ve grown it a lady friend commented that it looked nice.
    To conclude if you thought Millafandom was something wait till you see Corbynfandom, JC rocking up to Cheshire to attract the hen party votes……

  36. JOHN PILGRIM
    ALLAN
    You and former MP Eric Joyce – now there’s a fount of integrity and sound judgement to be reckoned with!!
    ________

    It could had been worse, a troika of integrity including yourself!!

  37. Google reveals a lamentable lack of reliable polling on the attractiveness of clean-shaven vs. bearded men. Get on the case, Anthony!

  38. @Allan Christie

    Who are you to say Jack’s complaints were crocodile tears, or that he was happy with Blair’s victory in 2005. Unless I’m mistaken, you know precisely eff all about him, or whether he was celebrating it as a triumph of democracy in 2005, so it just reads like apologism from you for the Tories’ result.

    I often make it a point to mention to the Blairites and other right-wingers wheeling out the “3 wins in a row”, what a sham that victory was – and then to see the same people justifying this year’s result off the back of it!

  39. As previously, Lab have given only the percentage figures for their leadership election –

    Dugdale 72% : Macintosh 28%

    Rowley 55% : Matheson 45% (in Round 2 after Baker eliminated)

    Publishing the actual numbers might have been wiser – if only to counteract the stories circulating that only around 1/3 of the potential electorate bothered to vote – unless, of course, those stories are approximately accurate!

  40. @Carfrew @Ken

    “Beards are in tho’, and quite a few beardies on this board, and not just left wing beards…”

    They certainly are. 2 Conservative MPs hoping the magic of the Jeremy beard will help them too.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/08/10/david-gauke-ed-vaizey-jeremy-corbyn-beard_n_7964556.html

  41. Found the following really interesting paper on students:

    http://www.ifs.org.uk/wps/wp1004.pdf

    In 1950 17,300 students were awarded first degrees and 2,400 were awarded higher degrees at UK universities.

    In 2010/11 331,000 full-time students were awarded first degrees at UK universities and 182,600 (all modes) were awarded higher degrees.

    Based on population growth, if people were attending at 1950’s rates, it would be 40,000 people going to university now – and I expect tuition fees would still be free…

    To viably abolish tuition fees we would need to shrink the numbers going to university – which I understand the SNP is trying to do by raiding the schools budget to make sure fewer children get the grades to go to university in the first place (Fewer Scots pass the equivalent of A levels than English).

    Interesting dilemma isn’t it?

  42. Rivers10

    This is directed primarily at Ken but is also for anyone who seriously thinks Corbyn’s beard is a liability…..beards are cool at the moment, walk down any trendy part of a city and the amount of young hipster peeps with them is telling.

    Ken is of course completely right (that’s not a sentence you get to write often). Beards are simply soooo 2013 – no one remotely fashionable would be seen dead with one in the more on-trend areas of London. If Corbyn persists in wearing one, the vote in Hackney South and Shoreditch could drop to only 60% and the Guardian will look down its collective nose with disdain and horror (so no change there).

    The reason they are now regarded as no longer the dernier cri is of course because they have now spread out beyond Hoxton and the Northern Quarter and become popular generally. So Corbyn’s long-term facial attire will only do him good in the remaining 99% of the country – though possibly more by crediting the integrity of someone who doesn’t let himself be told what to do be image consultants.

  43. As OldNat says, so far the details of the Scottish Labour leadership election result:

    http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/blog/entry/leadership-results-2015

    are rather sketchy:

    Leader

    Kezia Dugdale – 72.1% of the total vote

    Ken Macintosh – 27.9% of the total vote

    Deputy Leader

    Round 1

    Richard Baker – 30.4% of the total vote

    Gordon Matheson – 32.2% of the total vote

    Alex Rowley – 37.4% of the total vote

    Richard Baker was eliminated having received the least number of votes.

    Round 2 after transferrals

    Gordon Matheson – 44.5% of the total vote

    Alex Rowley – 55.5% of the total vote

    No indication of turnout or electorate, never mind a detailed breakdown by constituency as we saw with the main Labour leadership in 2010 or anything on how the different sections (full members, TU affiliates, £3 supporters) voted

    There doesn’t seem any hint that we will more detail. On his blog Craig Murray reported a rumour that Dugdale won with only 5217 votes which implies a turnout of around 35%. This got a response:

    A second Labour figure just rang me to assure me my information – which was from a good source – is wrong. She would not give the actual figure and only said it was “higher”. I offered to take down the post and publish an accurate figure if she would give it, but this was declined.

  44. The are people -numerous people it appears – who support Jeremy Corbyn’s policies.

    There is a poster called The Other Howard also known as TOH. Some time ago about a year ago, I asked him sincerely what other country either now or in the past has adopted the policies which he favours. He said that Switzerland is probably the closest.

    I would like to put the question to Jeremy Corbyn supporters sincerely what other country now or in the past has adopted the policies which Jeremy Corbyn favours.

  45. Adge 3

    While I’m not a Corbyn supporter (or opponent), nationalised railways is, I believe, one of his policies.

    Other states that still maintain the railways in public ownership include Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, France, Portugal, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Switzerland – and Northern Ireland, for that matter.

    Hope that helps.

  46. OLD NAT
    “My countries enemy, you make your own choice’s.

    OH DEAR! I am mortified that I wrote such bad English. Probably the consumption of port wine with my son-in-law during the evening did not help. As for the content and meaning, I stand by every word. Your low opinion of my intellectual faculties is quite typical of your kind of leftie regarding a Home Counties Tory. I am not mortified about that.
    Your insinuation that the British Army is partial to certain terror groups depending on their politics and ethnic background, is another very typical attitude that one would expect from yourself. Had you ever been tasked with making decisions at a moments notice, which could very well decide life or death, (from the safety of a Scottish classroom of course,) I wonder how you would have faired.

  47. Attn: Beardie apologists…… I would draw your attention to the definitive fashion statement, from your own correspondent, the delightful, Morwenna Ferrier of the uber-trendy, Grauniad, Sat 21st June 2014……Headed: The end of the hipster, how flat caps and beards stopped being so cool. Be a leader, not a follower. :-)

  48. As to the nationalised railway, I can quote a well-know opponent of nationalisation, and proponent of free enterprise, who in 1996, at a party conference made the following promise:

    We will create “a unified system of railways with a publicly owned, publicly accountable British Rail at its core”

    He didn’t keep his words.

  49. @ Adge3

    I’m not a JC supporter, but using QE for infrastructural investment is used extensively in Japan and the United States.

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