ComRes’s monthly poll for the Daily Mail is out, topline voting intention figures are CON 40%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 5%. The poll also asked about military intervention in Syria. By 56% to 33% people supported British airstrikes against ISIS in Syria and while the public are opposed to sending British group troops against ISIS, it’s less overwhelming than most of the polls I’ve seen in recent years that have broached the topic of sending British ground troops into conflicts – 49% are opposed, 41% would support. Tabs are here.


415 Responses to “ComRes/Mail – CON 40, LAB 28, LDEM 7, UKIP 10, GRN 5”

1 2 3 9
  1. Labour are up 1%. Corbyn surge?

  2. Seeing Spearmint’s comment – second?

  3. 28% appears to be Labour’s hard core bases when everythingis going for them, as in 1983.

    The LibDems aren’t doing much better.

  4. A Corbyn win will put this right Labour :-)

  5. Jam making Cheese Eaters & Cycling Borderline Trainspotters are key demographic groups , and very rarely identified in OPs

    Pollsters must focus on them now if they really want to quantify Corbyn effect:-

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33624145

  6. So despite all the hard left noises, the Greens still on 5%. Proving two essential and well-heeded laws of politics:

    – Nothing you ever do will be good enough for some people.
    – The left is full of people who will go to any lengths possible to wriggle out of voting Labour.

  7. @MrNameless

    The Green Party has it’s own identity thanks.

    It’s members and supporters are not just waiting for Labour to change. They are not Labour voters, waiting for the messiah to tranform Labour. They have their own distinct party, ideas and ethos.

    If Labour is waiting for Greens to show gratitude, then they will be waiting a long time.

    It should be accepted that to some people, a choice between a Conservative big tent and a Labour big tent is not enough any more. That boat has sailed long ago.

  8. It will soon be two months since the GE and no swingometer and no update to VI.

    What’s going on?

  9. Harry

    I think Andrew is leaving it to remind everyone how wrong they were.

  10. CMJ,

    I agree with much of your post – my point was not a dig at the Greens but a warning for Labour. While there are some votes to be had on the left of the party, they should not be pursued at the expense of other sources, since the idea of “uniting the left” is more spurious than some think.

  11. Artair, even wrong about his name?

  12. Hopefully parties of the left will start to talk discretely to each other after the new leader is elected.Constitutional convention after the EU referendum anyone ?

  13. @Mr Nameless

    I agree with you about the destination of Burnham’s second preferences – I just expressed it badly!

    @Spearmint

    I’m sure you are right about the political damage caused to Burnham by the welfare vote. I also wondered whether it reflected his ham-fisted comments about sexism.

    Even so, I am surprised how quickly he has drifted in the betting.

  14. Mr Dave Ward seems confused on medical matters.

    An “antidote” is a substance which can counteract a form of poisoning. So “toxin” rather than “virus” would have been the appropriate description of “Blairites”.

    If, on the other hand, he really felt that “virus” is the appropriate word, then there is no “antidote”. The only certain method of destruction is the death of the virus’ host……………perhaps that’s what he really meant. lol.

  15. Mr Nameless

    I am sure Anthony will not mind. The fact that you do, cheers me endlessly!

  16. @MrNameless

    So Corbyn’s won the leadership then? You’ve wrote off Corbyn’s attractiveness to Green voters before he’s even been elected, let alone given a chance to set out his agenda. No guesses why you would do that.

    @Colin

    Because evidently you can only appeal politically to those with the same hobbies as yourself(!) I mean, after Cameron revealed his love of the Smiths, fellow fans of theirs flocked to him, didn’t they?

  17. very very early days I know but if the general election was anything like that Tim Farron might find he doesn’t have a party to lead anymore lol

  18. Good morning all. Long weekend? Don’t mind if I do.

    Good poll for the Tories and can’t see much of a bounce for Labour.
    The sub-sample is very interesting for Scotland and it’s the 3rd one to show Labour in 3rd place.

    Lib/Dems in single figures again. I really think that party is finished as a credible political force.

  19. The Tory VI may suffer before the end of the summer holidays if the “swarms” continue to play havoc with travel arrangements between the UK and France.

    So far plenty of talk but not much tangible results and its costing the economy millions every day.

    I can’t see why the migrants who make it to France can’t be shunted into Poland and other Eastern European countries? There economies are growing and have stable governments and freedoms of speech, everything migrants could wish for.

  20. #Their

  21. I cannot see the point of taking these Syria / ISIS polls serious, I think they are just wishful thinking.

    It’s like asking people (1) if they would like to have better public services and 92) if they would like to pay more taxes. You know what the answer is, but it is no help in setting policy. For that you need some better questions.

    So why are thinking the current Syria / ISIS polls tell us anything except that most people like an easy solution if it existed???

  22. Please, can some of us here try to ease off on the scoffing cheese posts and pedestrian sandal gags?

    It’s become a dull habit for the few.

  23. Regarding the voting intention polls if I can be a real cynic what’s the point of them at this stage? I mean how many people are honestly going to have changed their mind about how to vote 5 years from now from how they voted a couple months ago, any major deviation from the election result and I’d just claim it’s an outlier.

  24. @ Allan Christie

    I don’t know other Eastern European countries, but in Hungary they organise hunting parties for migrants on FB. Although it is a criminal offence (just planning it) I haven’t heard of any prosecution. There is also a female pensioner who lives near the border and she passes her time by scouting for migrants (she actually crawls in the high grass and alike) and informs the border guards.

    Oddly, one of the leaders of an anti-immigrant combat group was caught while smuggling Afgan people from Serbia to Austria. Well, nothing is as good as having the cake and eating it.

    But yes, Hungary has a very stable government, has free speech (nobody listens though, only speaks, but it can be a national trait) and no unemployment (thus the migrants can’t crowd out Hungarians from the labour market) from 2018 as unemployment benefit is being abolished by then. So I support your idea.

  25. @ Rivers10

    I liked more that apparently 4% voted “other parties”. I missed something in the results then in May, or the sample is somewhat skewed towards English Democrats, TUSC and save the local hospital voters.

  26. All this so called tactical voting is a total nonsense. Sometimes those on the left try to be too clever by half. Be honest with yourself and vote for what/who you believe in.
    If JC wins it might make Labour be more honest with itself. It is too broad a church and needs a split into a left wing, Corbyn’ite party, true socialists and a middle of the road, Blair’ite, loads-a-money, Tory lite party.

  27. @Allan

    No, I tended to like this place as it was generally non-partisan (yes we have our leanings, but the worst was kept to a minimum).

    Yesterday was the first time I had peeked in for two months (not including links to old threads) and it continues. Might as well use Twitter to be honest.

    Oh and since we’re on the subject of SNP baaad…

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-33731586

    “Both SNP candidates were returned on more than 60% of first preference votes.”

    No wane in sight. :))

  28. “It is too broad a church and needs a split into a left wing, Corbyn’ite party, true socialists and a middle of the road, Blair’ite, loads-a-money, Tory lite party.”

    But the Labour Party is full of people who don’t subscribe to either position and sit in the middle of both. Such an approach would leave me and tens of thousands like me politically homeless.

  29. Interesting Poll.

    I think we have to wait until Labour have a new leader in place before the polls start to mean much. I imagine the Conservatives will be fairly worried about Mr Corbyn winning the leadership. We may be seeing the polls turn very positive for Labour, possibly a small lead.. I do stress “possibly”

    have a nice weekend all.

  30. Laszlo

    I liked more that apparently 4% voted “other parties”. I missed something in the results then in May, or the sample is somewhat skewed towards English Democrats, TUSC and save the local hospital voters.

    Actually they found 6% who said they voted for ‘Some other party’ and downrated it. But for some reason that includes PC and the Greens as well, even though they also seem to have then asked current VI separately for both of those. They did ask the SNP separately even though they got fewer votes that the Greens.

    I suspect we may be in a bit a ‘legacy’ situation with some pollsters where options and tables are still reflecting pre-election situations. A good example is that they still seem to be explicitly asking if people will vote BNP even though they only put up 8 candidates and got 1667 votes in May.

  31. To return to the poll for a moment.

    The divergence of the finding from polling companies only a few months after they were re-based would suggest they are still a load of old carp.

  32. LASZLO

    I’m not aware of what goes on in the backwaters of Hungary but people trafficking ain’t confined to the backwaters of Hungary. Here in the UK many migrants are enslaved, moved around like animals and deprived of medical care.

    So I have to ask the question. Why would any migrant want to come to the UK? We certainly don’t hold the high moral ground when it comes to migrant treatment.

    My previous post was about repatriation of migrants right across the EU and especially Eastern Europe because they are part of the EU and should also share responsibilities. The situation in Eastern EU countries is far stable than the likes of Syria and Libya.

  33. Allan

    I doubt that most people in poor countries really know and understand what living in developed countries is really like.

    I remember when in Kenya, the cheesy soap opera “The Bold and the Beautiful” was heavily advertised as quality drama(!)

    Someone in Kenya is unlikely to know the differences between rich countries (any more than most British differentiate between African countries) and would not think that the rest of the developed world lives like that.

    If they think everyone here is rich, beautiful and getting loads as a result of taking such schlock seriously, then no wonder they want to come over. No wonder they get a shock when reality kicks in.

  34. STATGEEK

    It will be a loss if you don’t comment again on UKPR and keep us up to date with your charts and Stats,. I’ve seen a lot of SNP bad posts from the same couple of deluded suspects but its best to ignore them although one particular post went even beyond what I thought that individual was capable off.

    Anyway that’s two spectacular by-election results for the SNP in Aberdeen and I’m looking forward to the Glasgow by-elections in the next few weeks. One thing is for certain though, the current administration in Aberdeen is for the boot in 2017.

  35. “and would not think”

    That should read “might think”

    Should re-read after editing a sentence!

  36. Therefore the way to solve the migrant crisis is for the BBC to sell Eastenders to every country in Africa and Asia. ;)

  37. Hawthorn
    The evidence is surely against what you say. The migrants do not want to get to a developed country but to get to the UK. They do not have inflated ideas of what life will be like here. Interviews show the aspire to work in the hard, informal, unregulated economy where they want to join networks of relations, compatriots or political allies.

    The evidence of interviews shows they know work is easier to get and keep in the UK. From personal knowledge they also know that attitudes are much less hostile here than elsewhere. London is the dream for hundreds of millions of people …and they are justified in their choice.

  38. HAWTHORN

    I agree with you. Once the migrants do arrive in the UK they will be in for a heck of a shock. Okay it’s a lot better than what they have left behind but clearly they have been lead up the garden path if they think the paths are paved with gold.
    …..

    “Therefore the way to solve the migrant crisis is for the BBC to sell Eastenders to every country in Africa and Asia. ;)”
    ___

    LOL…. who knows UKIP might use Eastenders in their next political broadcast to try and drive out the migrants who have already arrived.

    Joking aside, no one wants to see people suffering and I can’t see why the EU can’t say to the migrants in French ports that they ahve the option of going to Poland etc or you might be returned to your native country because obviously something is attracting them to the UK and Germany.

  39. BARNEY

    ” London is the dream for hundreds of millions of people …and they are justified in their choice”
    ______

    Yes that’s true but many hundreds of thousands of Londoners can’t afford to live in London anymore and are forced to move out of the city as indeed many millions of UK nationals can’t afford to live in London and are forced to commute vast distances each day costing hundreds of pounds a month just to get into work.

    So I’m presuming your hypothesis would be to help and fund a migrant (with no money) to live in London at great expense yet see UK nationals who are in work but can’t afford to live London be forced out?

    The migrants who manage to make it to the UK should not automatically presume they can live in London.

  40. The main attraction of the UK to migrants is surely our language: either they already speak it, or it is the best one for them to learn.

  41. I see the Herald is reporting that Andy Burnham will grant, if elected as Labour leader, autonomy to the “branch office” in Scotland over matters of policy, party management and candidate selection. Though my days of voting for the Labour party are behind me (possibly permanently) I think this is a good idea. It may help Burnham to get elected and I think it might help to invigorate the party in Scotland.

  42. @ Allan Christie

    My answer was a bit tongue-in-cheek.

    Anyway relative to population, Hungary takes far more asylum seekers than any of the EU countries. In any case, most of the fight is between those supporting the migrants and those who are anti migrants (oddly they anti everything), rather than involving the migrants, which is good. I get these things from newspapers, friends, and ideological enemies.

    In a number of cases German courts refused to send back asylum seekers to Hungary (as would be the EU rule), “as their human rights would not be respected). One EU member state’s court on another EU member state.

    Price for transporting a carload of migrants from south of Hungary to Germany is about 1,500 euros, which casts an interesting picture at the living conditions. Mind, this is what I paid for a lovely entrepreneur to transport me and my new dog from Hungary to Calais two years ago.

  43. BARNEY CROCKETT

    I am thinking more of the latent demand on top of having to live under monsters like Isias Afwerki.

    Most Africans do not have connections with family in the West. To get your hands on thousands of dollars to pay people traffickers is far from normal. This is why it tends to be relatively well off professionals who manage to get out and away to Europe. They are not poor by African standards (or at least not until they have handed over their savings).

    Personally, I think that a few thousand migrants is neither here nor there and would not have a problem with them settling in the UK. However, saying so would make Labour unelectable. You have to be brave to be spineless…

  44. @ Roger Mexico

    Thanks. You are probably right. It seemed to me from the tables that the 4% was above the Green and SNP. But going through the original sampling ..: I’m not sure, but on a mobile it’s not easy, so On the basis of previous experiences, I’m sure you are right.

    Still, on the headline figures it leaves an awful lot for “others” who are they?

  45. We once conquered a lot of these countries, built roads and railways, introduced a civil service and educated them and in so doing taught them to speak English. We should have taught them German instead.
    The problem now is that we cannot possibly accept them all, quite apart from the terrorism threat (a good number will be potential terrorists) the UK is an island and frankly it’s virtually full, certainly England is. Just travel any motorway to confirm.

    The EU in general and the French in particular, have to come up with some radical proposals particularly for dealing with the hoards around Calais, which is costing the country millions as well as inconveniencing the general public trying to go on holiday but also the hoards arriving in Italy and Greece.

    Creating a safe haven area in Libya, to where they can all be returned seems a good option, from where they can be processed, one by one. It would also make it easier to designate which EU country those allowed into the EU, would go to, so ensuring that the burden is shared across all countries.

  46. There was a pretty unrepresentative survey in G or BBC why migrants want to come to the UK. It is quite clear that this intention, to a large degree) depends on the torn apart country concerned.

    I guess the trouble is not the number of migrants in Calais, it is the infrastructure and vehicles that they happen to attempt to use.

    The notion put out Kent council can’t cope with minor migrants is quite honestly ridiculous. An interesting way of asking for more money from the central government to compensate for cuts.

  47. @ Robert Newark

    Germany takes four times as much as the UK, so even back to the future is not convincing.

    As to safe areas, let’s say in Libya, does have a little resemblance of the Native American reservations, which didn’t work out particularly well.

  48. @Spearmint They actually are one point down from 29% if you compare with the last ComRes poll. I wouldn’t consider this is anything other than normal sample variation though.

    And there’s really no reason to think that there will be a Corbryn effect before he is (if he is) elected leader of the Labour Party neither.

  49. This crisis with immigrants at the moment really worries me because what its shown is how woefully incapable of dealing with the problem we are and common sense tells us its going to get a LOT worse in the medium term.

    We should be learning from this crisis on how to deal with bigger ones in the future because I hate to be a buzzkill but with rising sea levels it’ll be only a decade or two before we start seeing climate refugees and yes it might start with a few thousand from Pacific islands but just wait until Bangladesh a desperately poor country of over 250 million people located almost entirely below or slightly above sea level gets inundated. If we can’t deal with refugees from the middle east and Africa we’re going to simply fall apart when trying to deal with climate refugees.

  50. @robert newark
    “the UK is an island and frankly it’s virtually full, certainly England is. Just travel any motorway to confirm.”

    The UK is a lot of things but it’s *not* virtually full. This article is quite illuminating:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18623096

    England itself is designated as 10.6% urban, but most of that is greenspace. A grand total of 2.27% of England is “built-on”, according to the National Ecosystem Assessment. That number is of course lower in the rest of the UK.

    Discounting national parks, farmland, forests etc, there is *plenty* of space in England. What’s full are some of our cities, but we have space for more towns and cities. The population problems are more political than physical.

    BTW I am not making a political point about the migrant/asylum debate, I don’t think this is an excuse to increase immigration.

1 2 3 9