Ipsos MORI released their monthly political monitor yesterday, topline voting intention numbers are CON 37%, LAB 31%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 9%. These are on the basis of some minor interim changes to methodology (in this case adding how habitually people vote to the turnout model) while the inquiry continues longer term solutions are worked upon. Tabs are here. MORI also asked a question about whether people thought the four Labour leadership candidates had what it took to be a good Prime Minister. Andy Burnham had the best score (or the least worst) – 27% of people thought he did, 27% disagreed. In comparison 22% thought Yvette Cooper did, 16% Liz Kendall and 17% Jeremy Corbyn.

YouGov also published the rest of their poll of Labour party members, conducted for the Times. Tables for part one of the research are here, part two here. The second wave included a question on why party members are voting as they are, showing the contrast between what is driving Burnham, Cooper, Kendall and Corbyn voters. Burnham supporters say they are backing him because he has the best chance of winning, will unite the party and will be the best opposition to the Conservatives. The answers from Cooper supporters are similar, though there is less emphasis on party unity. For Kendall supporters the key reason to back her is seen as having the best change of winning, followed by the being the strongest opposition – 31% of her supporters say they are backing her as a break from Ed Miliband’s party, and only 10% see her as a unifier. The drivers for supporters of Jeremy Corbyn contrast sharply with the other three – only 5% of his supporters say they are backing him as the candidate who has the best chance of winning in 2020, only 5% are backing him as a unifier, the reasons are overwhelmingly because they think he has the best policies and because they think he is a break from New Labour.


517 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 37, LAB 31, LDEM 10, UKIP 9”

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  1. Its being so cheery that keeps us going isn’t it?

  2. Hawthorn

    “The tax revenues from the bubble allowed the circle to be squared until it all went Pete Tong.”

    The lower cost of borrowing – until it all blew up – made the circle easier to square.

  3. JIM JAM

    I’m not sure which factor MPC rate as key in that decision.

    Last time I looked it was a combination of Unemployment & Average pay rises.

    We must be getting close to a hike-but Carney said it will be slow & lengthy when it comes.

    There’s no inflationary factor.

  4. @Couper,

    IMO the rise of the SNP is little to do with the left triumphing over right wing politics in Scotland, but is instead primarily about nationalism, national identity and the right to self-govern. Put simply, the Scottish are fed up of being ruled by England-based Westminster parties and many Scottish people would prefer a national identity free from this idea of ‘Britishness’.

    Similar to the rise of UKIP in many ways in England (and Wales to a lesser extent).

  5. @Couper,

    IMO the rise of the SNP is little to do with the left triumphing over right wing politics in Scotland, but is instead primarily about nationalism, national identity and the right to self-govern. Put simply, the Scottish are fed up of being ruled by England-based Westminster parties and many Scottish people would prefer a national identity free from this idea of ‘Britishness’. They are very proud Scots.

    Similar to the rise of UKIP in many ways in England (and Wales to a lesser extent).

  6. Oops, double post. My IPad is being temperamental.

  7. I thought I might weigh in on the “Corbyn cant win” “too left wing” “need to hold the centre ground” debate, I hate to say it but its all political bubble nonsense. I’ve said before the public are not politically versed enough to have any notion of what the centre ground even is, frankly anybody can win an election given the right circumstances and accompanying narrative.

    In this sense Corbyn could “possibly” win (I should preface this by saying I’m still not entirely convinced) Its not about winning over the Greens and Lib Dems (I read somewhere that if Labour won every single vote cast for the Greens and Lib Dems they would only win an extra 26 seats from the Tories)

    No its much more than that, Corbyn needs to and can win the votes of kippers and surprisingly Tories. On the UKIP front I don’t know why so many people are baffled by this (and kudos to those that are aware of this) but the bulk of kippers are not fanatic neoliberal Thatcherites, I mean how many Tories do you think there are in places like Rotherham and Doncaster? These people feel abandoned by Labour and someone like Corbyn could possibly win them back.

    Now that alone could be enough for Labour to win but we then look at the Tory voters. Again many of the swing voters are not devoted neoliberals they are just average people who might have been more convinced by the Tories economic arguments, thought Labour might be too soft on welfare and immigration, liked the odd Tory policy which stuck in their mind or most likely didn’t like the idea of Milliband in number 10 cos he was a bit goofy. Give them an authentic character and they will likely listen and they might just like what they hear. Many of Corbyn’s policies are very popular with the public (mansion tax, railway nationalisation, 50p top rate tax, scrapping tuition fees, rent controls, massive house building project) if this stuff was emphasised these people who voted Tory might just take a punt and go Labour.

    I’m fully aware I’m one of the youngest (if not the youngest) contributor here but that means that all you oldies with your electoral knowledge dating back decades should know full well the public don’t fit so easily onto a left/right spectrum like we (the very politically engaged) might do. Someone can vote Tory one election, Labour the next, UKIP the third and Green the fourth, to conclude don’t assume for a second that all those who voted Tory in 2015 hate Corbyn, you may be surprised….

  8. @Rivers10.

    I’d agree with you, if Corbyn was just economically on the left (although we do know that people can support individual policies, but not then support the party that espouses them – it’s a complicated thing, party political positioning).

    His real Achilles heel is his, ahem, “unorthodox” views on issues like terrorism and the monarchy, combined with his reluctance to tack with the wind of public opinion. He’s been in politics too long, and taken too many stances that are offputting to the ordinary Briton, to survive through the barrage of an election campaign.

    Middle of the road voters just want a government that seems competent, human and sensible.

  9. Ambivalentsupporter and Couper
    I’d go further and say its not even entirely about nationalism and is more about disenchantment. For various reasons the British people are sick of established politics, various parties have obviously risen to exploit this, UKIP have blamed immigration and the EU, the Greens austerity and neoliberalism while the SNP were brilliantly able to blame Westminster during the indy ref.

    Consequently anyone looking for a bone to pick with “the establishment” went for the SNP in Scotland. Its worth remembering that while UKIP did poorly in Scotland so too did the Scottish Greens, the SNP (in what is nothing short than a political act of wizardry) has managed to become the recipient of nearly every “screw the establishment vote” by blaming Westminster. What’s more them being in power and the indy ref meant that they were able to convince a lot more people that the establishment needed screwing than the likes of UKIP, the Greens or Plaid could.

    As I say the public can be convinced of anything given a charismatic leader, a strong narrative and the correct circumstances.

  10. What is being overlooked here is the 40 year (or thereabouts) cycle.

    1940s A big swing to the left, Attlee elected and left wing Labour policies become mainstream until
    1980s. A big swing to the right, Thatcher elected and right wing Tory policies become mainstream until
    2020s………..

  11. Ambiv
    Scots are no more proud than they were many years ago. People in Scotland as across Europe are very unhappy and the SNP are promising that everything will be OK without any need to change and in particular without any tax rises.

    Statistically the sense of Scottishness has been very gradually declining since the onset of devolution. There was a recent LSE paper on this.

  12. Neil A
    Possibly but in his defence I honestly think the average Brit only cares enough about the monarchy to be offended (and Corbyn has been very shrewd in addressing that) On issues like terrorism etc so long as he doesn’t come out with some stupid Green Party line saying that joining Al Qaeda should be legal he would probably manage.

    I agree Corbyn probably won’t win many middle of the road voters, thankfully there are enough “not middle of the road” ones for him to win. Its a tough gig but its doable.

  13. @Jim Jam – “Serious point Economically is that manufacturing has declined and construction flat-lined while the service sector and personal spending has increase.

    And a question – will this hasten or accelerate interest rate increases and will this have any impact politically?”

    Somewhat worryingly, the Markit Household Finance Index for July runs under the headline “Households signal bleakest financial outlook in a year”.

    It might not be as bad as it sounds, as the headline index rose slightly, but the question about finances in the next twelve months indicates an expectation of decline.

    Given our exclusive reliance on services at the moment, that must be a worry, but more deeply, there remains no sign of the march of the makers nor of the great export drive that was going to provide the long term economic plan.

    We are growing by higher household debt and laundered money ‘investing’ in the UK, while running a trade deficit of 5% of GDP.

    It’s summer and the sun is apparently shining, which I know, as I can still see it through the holes in the roof.

  14. Norbold
    Its funny you write that because about six months back I picked up a pamphlet (you know the type activist groups give out on uni campuses full of factoids about something radical and strange) Anywho this one caught my attention being as it mixed two of my favourite things politics and technology. Basically it was about the work of some futurist political writer and it explained how certain technological advancements and events in the near future (next several decades) essentially guarantee the creation of a socialist society. Some of the points were predicated on pretty big leaps of faith I thought but others really did hold merit. I take solace thinking that’s its not a matter of IF neoliberalism dies its a matter of WHEN neoliberalism dies.

  15. Rivers10
    “These people (UKIP voters) feel abandoned by Labour and someone like Corbyn could possibly win them back. ”

    The biggest concerns of most UKIP voters are to leave the EU and stop mass uncontrolled immigration. I can’t see Corbyn going for those policies.

  16. @Rivers10,

    I agree that that is also a definite factor in driving nationalism in both Scotland and England/Wales. Undoubtedly. Problem is that I don’t think either the Labour Party or the Conservative Party will have the answers to many of their concerns in the coming decades. Many feel the same.

    @Barney Crockett,

    True, but the big difference is that the referendum showed Scots that there was a real alternative (i.e. the SNP) that could actually get significant representation in Westminster. Until then, this didn’t look possible.

  17. Norbold: 1900s, big swing to the right… Oh. Bang goes that theory!

  18. Pete B
    Well it actually worries me that Corbyn seems to be flirting with supporting No in the EU vote so never say never.

    But more importantly, this is what I meant earlier about UKIP voters political positioning. UKIP voters may be primarily concerned about the EU and mass immigration but the million dollar question is why? Sure some are just plain racist and some buy into the whole “unaccountable, meddling EU” stuff but the bulk are voting in what they feel is their own self interest. They feel that immigrants are taking their jobs, EU is costing Britain billions etc etc Corbyn can combat this with an equally self serving line of vote for me and get free this, cheaper that and more of that not to mention blaming everything on big business and the rich. Depending on how convincing this pitch is people could pick the Labour pitch over the UKIP pitch.

    People only care about the EU and immigrants when they’re lead to believe that its the fault of the EU and immigrants that the things they actually care about(schools, hospitals etc) aren’t working properly.

  19. Rivers
    ‘Sure some are just plain racist and some buy into the whole “unaccountable, meddling EU” stuff but the bulk are voting in what they feel is their own self interest. They feel that immigrants are taking their jobs, EU is costing Britain billions etc etc …People only care about the EU and immigrants when they’re lead to believe that its the fault of the EU and immigrants that the things they actually care about(schools, hospitals etc) aren’t working properly.’

    That may be true of some, but there is also a strong feeling amongst older voters (where UKIP is especially strong) that the whole culture of the country has not only changed, but is constantly changing. Change is not always bad of course, but it is perceived by these people that it is out of control and there is no end in sight. For instance, Sharia law is already the de facto law in many places. How long before it becomes incorporated in some form in our own legal system? Also why can’t we vote for a European Parliament that can actually decide policy? You may see this as a racist postion, others may see it as patriotic.

  20. One is away on work, and the all these,

    Anyway, slowly.

    @ Rivers10 (sorry, but it makes it easier)

    That technology bit on the “radical left” tends to be based on the misinterpretation of two pages of Marx’s Grundrisse (towards the beginning of the second half).

    EU immigration: apart from pockets, it is mainly the dislike of people who speak a language you don’t understand, and as they are on route 82, rather than the sightseeing one, are probably after your jobs.

    Scotland is about nationalism, but SNP managed to cloak it in anti-austerity. It’s much easier to fight the classwar against foreigners (the English). Nevertheless, the SNP has an impressive record in government,

    @ many

    Corbyn is strictly speaking not lefty, but a radical. I consider some of his views rightwing, some infantile disorders of the “left”. This can actually work. There are about 4 million people, according to the poll in May (elections) who appear to be quite willing to go down on that route.

    Quite unbelievably, after the massive success of Labour in Liverpool, there is a huge push that Labour (but not our council!) is not left enough … All the fingerprints of confused radicalism. Without going any further – it is not unrelated to the rise of the service sector.

  21. @ Pete B

    I think you are very right about the “change”. I have met a lot of people who like individual changes – all, or most of them – yet they just feel that there is too much change.

  22. I also think that the Great Recession has had a major influence on people’s value system, but it goes too far and I don’t have polling evidence.

  23. Regarding another referendum and Cameron’s (in) ability to prevent one. This sums it up

    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/scottish-independence-sorry-david-cameron-you-cant-prevent-second-referendum-scotland-1513014

  24. Or alternatively, it’s just a very partisan opinion from a very partisan Nat.

    The Scottish parliament doesn’t have the legal power to declare Scotland independent. It might well have the moral authority to do so, although that’s obviously a subjective opinion.

  25. @Neil A

    Cameron signed a pledge prior to referendum that stated ‘The Scottish people are sovereign’. The Smith agreement states that the Scottish Parliament will decide on a referendum. Scotland is not a colony, we are in a union we entered into and we are free to leave if the majority of Scots want to leave.

    What is Cameron and other unionists worried about?

    That they will lose the referendum because their treatment of Scotland since the No vote has been appalling:

    Demonisation of the SNP and Scots for electoral purposes
    EVEL
    The Scotland Bill which the cross party Holyrood committee unanimously agreed does not implement Smith.
    Every amendment put by the SNP or Labour rejected including those with support of 58/59 MPs from Scotland.

    The relationship is deteriorating.

  26. I do not believe that the Smith agreement does state that the Scottish Parliament will decide on a referendum. It simply states that Scotland may become independent if the people of Scottish wish it to do so – saying nothing about the process of consulting them on this. It is entirely open to the UK government to rule that the Smith agreement has been followed, a vote held, the people consulted.

    I expect the SNP would happily hold a referendum every other Thursday until they “get lucky”. The UK government isn’t obliged to humour them.

  27. *people of Scotland

  28. Neil A

    Your 3:00am is a great start for your address to us!

    How does it continue?

    “Give up your hopeless dreams of independence or autonomy. The Queen in her UK Parliament will make such decisions for you.

    Look! She’s waving at you and purring.

    With a majority of Tory MPs (all but one elected in England & Wales) in her Commons and paedophiles rampant in the Lords, you can be assured of governance that suits some people in the UK.”

    That would go down well!

  29. That Labour leadership poll (22% Corbyn lead) is distressing mostly for the fact that I’m the only one who seems distressed about it.

  30. Its not a poll tho mr N its prob coopers canvass returns .

    For abc to work its essential that those voters use their 2nd and 3rd preferences -this guff masquerading as fact doesnt help that solidarity.

    I was gonna vote Burnham 1 only but may now add cooper 2 even tho her innate conservatism on pr and a federal uk puts me off bigtime.

  31. Oldnat

    When the SNP manifesto is drafted what do you think will be the subject of any referendum for which a mandate will be sought? “Devo max/independence /no change?

  32. Neil A
    You will have to watch your tongue. Any criticism of the SNP will result in comments about the links of your politics to paedophilia. Thats the kind of political debate we have in Scotland.

  33. @MrNameless
    “That Labour leadership poll (22% Corbyn lead) is distressing mostly for the fact that I’m the only one who seems distressed about it.”

    Don’t believe the neoliberal propaganda. Labour can win with Corbyn and he is enthusing a lot of people who had given up on politics. Surely that should cheer you up.

  34. LIZH

    A “lot of people” in the Labour leadership Electorate apparently.

    And you are clearly one of them-but putting aside your own enthusiasm- where is the evidence that he is “enthusing a lot of people” in the UK Electorate?

  35. @Bill Patrick

    “1900s, big swing to the right… Oh. Bang goes that theory!”

    It only counts since universal suffrage unless you’re saying women’s votes don’t count.

  36. BARNEY

    How long do you think ,after Independence in Scotland ,would it be before the formation of The Ministry o’ Truth. ?

    Minitrue the noo :-)

  37. Pete B

    “The biggest concerns of most UKIP voters are to leave the EU and stop mass uncontrolled immigration. I can’t see Corbyn going for those policies.”

    That was not my experience on the doorstep during the election as I have said above. In fact not one person who said they were going to vote UKIP mentioned Europe.

    It was immigration (which, of course does have a Europe dimension) and disenchantment with Labour as having abandoned the “working man”. JC will not win over the first type of course, but there are plenty of the second UKIP type to win back.

  38. @COLIN
    “where is the evidence that he is “enthusing a lot of people” in the UK Electorate?”

    A lot of new people have joined Labour since the election and since the leadership nominations were announced. We are told that it is mostly the new intake that support Corbyn. Aren’t the new supporters part of the UK Electorate? I am sure there will be a poll done sometime that will give you all the figures you require until then I will state that as a fact but precede it with Imho like TOH usually does.

  39. That they will lose the referendum because their treatment of Scotland since the No vote has been appalling:

    Sorry but I totally disagree with that post. Taking your points 1 by 1:-

    1. “Demonisation of the SNP and Scots for electoral purposes”. The SNP did that for themselves in England, with English voters.
    2. The EVEL being proposed by the Governement is a very watered down version of what should be a straight forward only English MP’s can vote on matters relating to England only.
    3 The rejection of every amendment is what often happens in a parliament where there is a clear government majority, it’s democratic.

    If any nation has been treated badly, it’s the English on the EVEL proposals.

  40. ToH,

    The Scottish Parliament and the Welsh and NI Assemblies were supported by the Electorates in those parts of the UK.

    Any new arrangement for English law making (or E&W where appropriate) would need the same mandate.

  41. JIM JAM

    Exactly, English MP’s.

  42. TOH

    The Tories aren’t going to solve this for the same reason that they won’t solve the House of Lords problem.

    Solving the problems means creating new elected chambers (an English parliament and a Senate) which would under precedent be under PR, which would prevent the Tories from controlling them.

    […]

  43. Pete b.
    Your comments on Sharia law are dailymailesque and wrong.
    Inflammatory doggrel like that belong on the Britain first site, not here.
    Please.

    Para legal systems exist within most religions to deal with doctrinal matters and to paint this as invidious is misleading at best.

  44. HAWTHORN

    My point is we do not need an English Parliament, totally unecessary and costly. It’s so simple only English MP’s (those in English constituencies) are allowed vote on English only matters.

  45. Colin
    I’m going to be slightly more pragmatic than LIZH and say the reason there is no evidence of Corbyn enthusing the public is because we are three months on from an election, the public have had their fill of politics for the moment and won’t give a monkeys ar*e what’s going on in the politics front for at least a year. Most people are not as engaged and interested as we are, I reckon if you asked the bulk of people wouldn’t even know that labour were having a leadership contest let alone who’s in it. If Corbyn wins give it some time for his message to filter through to the public at large.

  46. I have no idea why I said pragmatic, should have wrote cynical….god I need my lunch.

  47. ToH,

    English MPs may well be the best method but I think you know I am saying any such change to the way we in England (and Wales) are legislated for should be approved in a referendum.

    Perhaps insisting 50% voting or 25% voting yes – sorry I forgot that only applies to Trade Unions nothing so piffling as our constitution.

  48. TOH

    If it was that simple, why hasn’t it happened?

    There have been exhaustive discussions about why it isn’t simple.

  49. Hawthorn

    It is that simple, I have already lobbied Grayling to point it out. From his reply my view is certainly being strongly put by many others.

    Some times politicians make a meal of something which really is so simple.

  50. Do you think Cameron is on his whirlwind tour of Asia (so people get to know who he is) in preparation for his next job i.e. giving after dinner lectures when he ceases to be PM in a year or twos time? Looks like Osborne is already preparing to take over.

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