Ipsos MORI released their monthly political monitor yesterday, topline voting intention numbers are CON 37%, LAB 31%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 9%. These are on the basis of some minor interim changes to methodology (in this case adding how habitually people vote to the turnout model) while the inquiry continues longer term solutions are worked upon. Tabs are here. MORI also asked a question about whether people thought the four Labour leadership candidates had what it took to be a good Prime Minister. Andy Burnham had the best score (or the least worst) – 27% of people thought he did, 27% disagreed. In comparison 22% thought Yvette Cooper did, 16% Liz Kendall and 17% Jeremy Corbyn.

YouGov also published the rest of their poll of Labour party members, conducted for the Times. Tables for part one of the research are here, part two here. The second wave included a question on why party members are voting as they are, showing the contrast between what is driving Burnham, Cooper, Kendall and Corbyn voters. Burnham supporters say they are backing him because he has the best chance of winning, will unite the party and will be the best opposition to the Conservatives. The answers from Cooper supporters are similar, though there is less emphasis on party unity. For Kendall supporters the key reason to back her is seen as having the best change of winning, followed by the being the strongest opposition – 31% of her supporters say they are backing her as a break from Ed Miliband’s party, and only 10% see her as a unifier. The drivers for supporters of Jeremy Corbyn contrast sharply with the other three – only 5% of his supporters say they are backing him as the candidate who has the best chance of winning in 2020, only 5% are backing him as a unifier, the reasons are overwhelmingly because they think he has the best policies and because they think he is a break from New Labour.


517 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 37, LAB 31, LDEM 10, UKIP 9”

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  1. P.S. Googling some more about Raghuram Rajan pulled up the following paper:

    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2005/wp05126.pdf

    Where he concludes that Foreign Aid undermines growth in the developing countries that receive it.

    So why are we continuing with it?

    Mr Rajan obviously looks at data with no preconceived ideas and draws conclusions based on evidence – but on this, like the paper on financial innovations leading to crashes, nobody wants to hear what he’s saying because it conflicts with their pet theories.

  2. CATMANJEFF

    Totally agree that JC adding in PR would be a great draw. Anyone know if he has ever said anything interesting on the voting system?

  3. Gosh, its almost like there’s an election on…

    Social media has gone evangelical regarding JC. Palpable hunger for change.

    Very exciting all round.

  4. Candy

    Thanks for the Rajan info.

    It took me back to University in the 1970s when the argument over Trade v Aid was in full swing.

    Sadly, in British politics, and probably throughout the Western world, we have moved into an era of intolerance, where contributions such as Rajan’s are dismissed for purely political reasons.

    I have been arguing for years that the affordable requirement placed upon developers will do nothing but damage to the housing market, but it is something that cannot be uttered in a public room, let alone debated.

  5. Really looking forward to a Labour leader who appears regularly on PressTV, and advocates leaving NATO.

    :-)

    The tectonic movements in the PLP will be of Prescottian proportions .

  6. JC’s views on PR have evolved a bit: he now says he’s prepared to consider top-up lists for the Commons. See
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBMBRUyTjaE

  7. Graham.

    The seat reduction and consequential boundary changes are highly likely to through negating the FPTP vote efficiency premium Labour have.
    Con on 38% at the next GE will give them 300+ out of 600 seats whatever Labour do?

  8. No polling on labour london mayor candidate .You would think if corbyn is surging that should help sadiq khan .

    Be very odd if labour selects corbyn and jowell -two more opposite politicians you couldnt imagine.

  9. @Catmanjeff

    “The Green social media shows that the main obstacle to many Greens following a Corbyn LP is the lack of electoral reform.”
    _____________

    There’s no pleasing some people is there? For months before the election, the Greens were the party of choice of those claiming that Labour under Miliband was merely a pale shadow of the Conservatives. That gifted several seats to the Conservatives. From your comment it appears that even the prospect of Corbyn leading Labour wouldn’t be enough to bring them into the fold.

    For those toying with whether to vote for Corbyn, it matters that he would be able to unite the left because the risk of him losing centrist votes is real.

  10. @Catoswyn @CatmanJeff

    There’s a recording of a Google Hangouts stream of a Coop hustings on Youtube where this was raised recently. I believe Corbyn made it clear he wants to retain the constituency link as a priority. i think he did mention reforming the HOL with a region balancing & proportionality but I could be misremembering.

  11. @Colin

    I think this sort of analysis ignores that Corbyn’s campaign is clearly moderated to appeal to the centre (only nationalising the things the public supports etc) and in doing so highlights how far away from the centre New Labour was on a whole host of issues.

    If we’re to complain about sectionalism the neoliberal contingent are just as much to blame – see Blair saying he’d run on a centrist platform even if he knew it was a vote loser last week.

  12. @Craig

    I think you have that the wrong way around. He did say this, which in my book is more damning:

    “”I wouldn’t want to win on an old fashioned leftist platform … even if I thought it was the route to victory, I wouldn’t take it,”

    Much better then, to quote his mate, to be “intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich” and only to win if you can govern accordingly.

  13. @Phil H

    I’d be surprised if a lot of the Greens didn’t switch to Labour with Corbyn, even without the prospect of PR. Twitter can be unrepresentative (and the people identifying with their party label on there will most likely be the faithful activists that are most committed to their party).

  14. @candy

    The paper you have referenced on international aid does not conclude that aid should be stopped nor that it is necessarily harmful.

  15. CRAIG

    @”Corbyn’s campaign is clearly moderated to appeal to the centre ”

    Good luck with that :-)

  16. @Phil H

    Well I admit I was paraphrasing (can barely remember what happened yesterday, let alone a comment from last week), but I think the two are implying the same.

  17. Colin
    “Good luck with that”
    With all due respect you appear to be treating Corbyn like some ideological dinosaur with absolutely no political pragmatism.
    I’m not in the Labour party but I know people who are and apparently the Corbyn camp while unashamedly left wing is also pragmatic enough to advocate what is reasonably popular or at least makes sense. For example Corbyn is open about being an advocate of a British republic but said on Newsnighy that he accepts the monarchy is popular and thus would even attempt to fight that battle. His views on taxes are (one could say extreme) but they have been moderated to a small 2% increase in corporation tax, 50p top rate, and “possibly” a 75% super rate for those earning over 1 million pounds. If you had any knowledge of Corbyn prior to the leadership you would know he believes in heavier taxes than this but he has moderated himself to become more palatable. It appears that being on the right you seem to see anyone to the left of Roy Jenkins as peas in the same pod…..

  18. @Phil Haines

    I can’t really answer your comment entirely, as it would be partisan.

    Suffice to say there are some people (like me) who don’t want politics to be just two big tents, but want a more varied system with greater choice and a more representative Parliament.

    Therefore, PR isn’t a nice-to-have feature for who I may vote for. It’s a prerequesite that any party I would even consider voting for should be proposing it.

  19. RIVERS10

    All I can do is read what he says & watch his tv interviews.

    I doubt whether he will have general appeal across England unless he changes dramatically-does a Tsipras perhaps.

    But of course , this view is far from restricted to Conservative supporters. As you will know there is considerable concern about the “electability” of a Corbyn lead Labour Party within the PLP.

    Time will tell-assuming he does actually win of course.

  20. Hallo all.

    I decided to give this place a miss for a bit, what with all the post-election recriminations.

    It seems they continue. SNP baaad…cybernats etc.

    Ta ta.

  21. “Raghuram Rajan (then of the University of Chicago) presented a paper in August 2005 to the world’s top economists and central bankers at a do to honour Greenspan who was retiring (Greenspan, Bernanke and Mervyn King were present), predicting that credit-default swaps and financial engineering had increased systemic risk in the banks.”

    Cor, those economists sure know how to party.

  22. Rivers10
    Your personal politics are your own affair. However, anyone who thinks a political majority in this country (England and Wales), is attainable with a re-run of Michael Foot’s policies and hard left appeal, is clearly a member of the Hapsburg family. Forgotten nothing
    and learned nothing. You make an old gentleman very happy.

  23. ‘hard left’? Not really – but that’s because of the right wing drift of politics…

    You dont have to be in the centre to do well in politics – consider Syriza and le Pen for openers…

  24. JACK
    This is England.

  25. I don’t know if Corbyn will win but I don’t see that if he does it will be a disaster. The usual ‘coterie’ in the Labour party have already lost two elections with their approach. Labour supporters are on their knees and not pleased to hear the Harman approach which seemed to suggest that those who had voted Labour were to be ignored in favour of those who had voted Conservative in future. As the Lib Dems and Labour in Scotland discovered allying yourself too closely to Conservatives risks losing those voters you do have while not gaining anybody else. For now it is perhaps most important to create some hope among Labour supporters, voters and members and to create clear water between them and the Conservatives. There are five years to the next election. Time enough to create another leader if neccessary before the election. Right now Labour needs to get back some sense of purpose and becoming too ‘Tory Lite’ will not do that. We are not in 1997 and solutions of triangulation and centrism may not be right for these times. At last Corbyn has created some excitement and sense of hope for many. That is no mean achievement in the current circumstances.

    After all Labour is meant to be a left wing party.

  26. And, just to add, at least Corbyn can communicate and has clear ideas. Labour needs someone who can try to create a clear narrative. Kendall and Corbyn seem the only ones able to do this (from their opposing camps). Cooper and Burnham sound like an a re-run of Milliband to me with hazy phrasing and professional politician speak. I will be in some despair if I have to listen to years of that again. Half the battle is communication.

  27. On July 5, just 25 days ago, the best price available for Liz Kendall was 4/1, and Corbyn was at 16/1.

    Today, Corbyn is now strong favourite at 13/10, and you can get Kendall at 66/1.

    That is an incredible turn around in such a short space of time, when not much has happened, event-wise, to change things. Other than interviews and hustings.

    And, of course, media comment, which has generally been hostile to Corbyn.

  28. that should’ve read than instead of and in my last time

  29. I thought there was no way back for the Lib Dems but here comes Jeremy….

    I can well see JC will ignite Labour members, maybe even bring a few Greens back. Will his ‘friendship’ with the IRA or homophobic, anti-Semite Islamists bring in many supporters? Can’t see it. Will exorcising the Blair-ites mean they will still vote for Labour? Doubt it. Will the previous LD supporters continue to vote for a neoMarxist? No chance. Will a split Labour Party where JC would even struggle to form a cabinet damage the electoral prospects? You bet!

    The whole idea that Corbyn means the current vote plus Greens is a huge misconception. There’s a reason Salmond is making kind noises about Jeremy and it has nothing to do with promoting his Party’s biggest rival.

  30. Corbyn’s part of the leftmost tradition within the Labour Party, and the far left wing of Labour contains the leftmost MPs that have been elected in Britain for decades since the Communists stopped winning their handful of seats.

    He’s not hard left by Syriza or Die Linke standards, but those parties don’t stand in Britain. It’s not unreasonable to call him hard left. He’s certainly harder left than Cameron is right, in a universe where Philip Davies or Peter Bone exists.

  31. Starry
    Correct
    Roland
    It was the Bourbons..but not surprised you are happy

  32. Spearmint
    An accurate summary.

  33. Colin
    His appeal across the country is certainly up for debate and I’ve admitted before that Corbyn is a BIG gamble for the Labour party, all I was trying to do was point out that Corbyn has at least somewhat moved towards the centre from his actual beliefs, I didn’t say he’d moved far but it can’t be denied he has moved.

  34. Dear Roly, I think you’re view that nothing has changed since 2008 and your complete complacency in the face of this has just made another old gentleman very happy. :)

  35. @Spearmint

    One thing is one’s world view, quite another the art of the possible. In the unlikely event of a Jez win (Cooper is looking more likely in my view) he’s highly unlikely to set out anything approaching a “hard” left programme. He’s far more likely to say to the MP’s that the Party’s members have endorsed a change of direction and the Party must carry out their wishes. This will involve a significant shift but not a revolution.

  36. Roland Haines
    I don’t know how well Corbyn will do and the honest truth is nobody does. While its true conventional political wisdom would suggest Corbyn will fail conventional political wisdom also told us UKIP was doing more harm to the Tories and the collapse of the Lib Dems primarily benefited Labour both of which were proven wrong just three months ago. Conventional political wisdom also said Thatcher couldn’t win on her monetarist platform and look how that panned out.

    Things are changing constantly and anybody who tries to make a comparison between 1983 and now is not even attempting to look at the full picture, where is the Falkland’s war? where is the SDP split? where are the hugely radical boundary changes? That’s what won it for the Tories in 83 and yes history might repeat itself but conversely there could be a recession in 2019, the Tories might rip themselves apart during the EU referendum and they might elect Michael Gove as their next leader all of which would allow Labour led by Karl Marx with a manifesto pledge to commit genocide to stroll into Downing Street.

    In politics the main factors in order of their importance are circumstances, personality, state of your opponents and finally policy. Writing off Corbyn on the basis he’s left wing is very brave.

  37. Roland Haines

    “JACK
    This is England.”

    You are, presumably, English and living in England, so it might have escaped your notice that ‘this’ is also Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – unless the ‘UK’ part of the site’s title no longer applies!

  38. @Millie

    It’s not unprecedented for the Labour hierarchy to back someone who turns out to be extremely unpopular with their own members and/or their own voters.

    I give you 3 such examples:

    1. Frank Dobson who TB threw his weight behind as Labour candidate for Mayor of London in 2000, only to be destroyed by huge momentum for Ken Livingstone, standing as an Independent.

    2. Iain Gray. A bit harsh this one as Gray wasn’t initially unsuccessful, but he did preside over Labour’s disastrous 2011 Holyrood election campaign where the SNP made a decisive blow by peeling off Labour voters. A shift Labour has yet to swing back. Labour were warned Gray was alienating its supporters but did not listen.

    3. Liz Kendall. In fairness to Labour bigwigs there is an argument Labour needs to win over seats that lean Tory to ever win again and that was Liz’s key policy platform. However, it has become apparent that they completely misjudged or hubrustically ignored their core vote in backing Leicester Liz.

  39. RIVERS10

    Spot on.

  40. @RAF

    Agree about the Labour hierarchy, and your examples. I suspect all hierarchies can become disconnected from the ‘lower orders’. At this point in time, I think Corbyn will win ( I backed Cooper at 3/1 by the way ), simply because the bookies are rarely wrong.

    And your earlier comment chimes with one of my posts: Corbyn will not be revolutionary, and there will not be a split.

    If he’s got any sense, he will enjoy his honeymoon period, instigate some popular policy changes, and exit stage left. I have a sneaky feeling he is smart enough to do it.

  41. Oh, and join Blair on the after dinner speaker circuit…

  42. RAF

    Like Millie, I too agree with the hierachy post.

  43. Cue the heart transplant jokes.

  44. RIVERS10

    What is wrong with Michael Gove ?

  45. CLP nominations update – Corbyn 134 – Burnham 106 – Cooper 106 – Kendal 15.

  46. I was about to type “I’m out”, but then …

    JC is not far left, certainly not a communist, but a representative of a long tradition of the Labour Party. The party is unlikely to change. It has been what it is for a very long time. It is a very English (measured word) party.

    Syriza and Linke shouldn’t be mentioned as the same platform. We have now evidence that is a radical petty bourgeoise party, which I have always said. Linke is a leftwing social democratic breakaway party. It may transform itself to what it wants to be, but it is unlikely to happen without outside events.

    The entry of the Great Recession generation shouldn’t be discounted. A very diverse lot, but it’s easy to radicalise them (from either direction).

    Party politics is also changing. I doubt that the FPTP could be maintained for long, yet, it won’t change much in politics.

    JC will be harder for the conservatives than AB or maybe YC.

  47. Good evening all..

    STATGEEK
    Hallo all.
    I decided to give this place a miss for a bit, what with all the post-election recriminations.
    It seems they continue. SNP baaad…cybernats etc.
    Ta ta
    ___________

    Don’t let a couple of deluded morons stop you from posting on UKPR. It’s the only political site I comment on (although not the only one I read) and the vast majority of posters on here from all political persuasions respect each others opinions.

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