A week or so ago Stephen Bush at the New Statesman wrote a piece about how “private polling” from a couple of the Labour leadership campaigns was showing Jeremy Corbyn ahead. At the time I was all set to write a “private polling is nothing special, and there’s no reason to believe it above the published stuff” post, except there wasn’t actually any published stuff. Now there is, and it’s in line with the private polling Stephen was apparently shown.

AYouGov poll of Labour party members (including £3 supporters and trade unionists who have registered to vote) in tomorrow’s Times has first round preferences are CORBYN 43%, BURNHAM 26%, COOPER 20%, KENDALL 11%. As might be expected, Corbyn’s large lead on the first round is chipped away by reallocations of the second preferences of Kendall and Cooper voters in the second and third rounds, but it’s not enough – Corbyn still narrowly beats Burnham by 53% to 47% in the final round.

In the deputy race Tom Watson has a clear lead with 42% to Stella Creasy on 21%, Caroline Flint on 17%, Ben Bradshaw on 11% and Angela Eagle on 10%. Watson comfortably wins once second preferences are reallocated.

So Jeremy Corbyn, who only got onto the ballot by Labour MPs “lending” him votes to broaden the debate, looks like he has serious chance of winning. The Labour leadership race still has weeks to go so there is time for things to change. What I am pondering is how many Labour members were voting Corbyn in order to send a message about Labour staying true to its roots and principles rather than actually wanting him as leader, might they recoil at the thought of him actually winning? Or alternatively, might him being ahead add strength to his campaign now it looks like he could actually do it? We shall see…


255 Responses to “YouGov/Times polls show Jeremy Corbyn ahead in Labour leadership race”

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  1. @The Monk

    I can see the press praising all the Labour MPs who rebel against Corbyn. There is no downside to them from that direction.

    He can of course withdraw the whip from all of them, and would immediately not be Leader of the Opposition any more because his rump party would be too small. So most likely he’ll either resign or soldier on accepting all the rebellions as “debate”. It would be new politics if he did the latter!

  2. @COUPER2802

    Instead of focusing on independence isn’t it better to have the right type of rulers and policies not only in our own countries but in the rest of Europe and the rest of the world? The left leaning people should unite and fight together because we have the same aims and aspirations. The right leaning people seem to be better at working together to further their aims like they are doing through globalisation, asset stripping countries or paying as little tax as possible.

  3. I haven’t posted on here for ages so I doubt that anyone would remember me.

    I have to say I feel that I have traveled back thirty years.

    I know that quite a few people find the Labour Leadership election boring but I personally find it interesting.

    Dan Hodges says it’s not going to be Corbyn. It’s either going to be Burnham or Cooper. As he was right about the election I can’t laugh him off.

  4. @LIZH

    I actually think that is happening the SNP MPs are saying publicly that they would welcome a Corbyn Labour party because they could form a united opposition and I have seen Greens say the same. Also the SNP are pretty clever at strategy and this could help Corbyn in the HoC.

    As I said it could well put back the cause of indy but Corbyn would definitely impove Labour’s standing in Scotland.

  5. @COUPER2802

    Thanks – sounds good to me.

  6. I have spent a bit of time looking through landlord and contractor forums. They seem to like the Osborne budget even less than the Labour left do.

    I cannot imagine small businesses are happy campers either.

    But where else would they go to vote? I think they might end up understanding why so many people on the left got turned off by Blair despite his electoral success.

    It is a shame that polling is close to non-existent and/or very unreliable as I would quite like to look at some decent VI polling now!

  7. “If I am right about the economy heading south, then UKIP will be rubbing their hands.”

    ————

    Yes, clearly I’m behind the curve on the hand-rubbing thing…

  8. @CATOSWIN

    “I’m obviously out of synch with everyone on here. I loved the BBC political sit com set on the campaign buses.”

    ————

    Reviews sounded good but never got around to watching it. So, as with an increasing number of things, MrNameless is our vicarious proxy on the matter.

    (I try and keep him up to speed on Thorium, Storage etc….)

  9. Well, I quite liked it although it took a little while to get going.

    Although the setting was ludicrous, a lot of the characters are sorts we’ve all met in politics.

  10. @catoswin

    Not that you can’t be a proxy too!! The more the merrier. It’s efficient…

    @Hawthorn

    It always amazes me Labour don’t do more for small business, as in LOADS more. I mean, it oughta be up their street. And there’s a lot of self-employed peeps, owning their own means of production, competing with the big fish with all the capital. Hard for Tories to compete if funded by big fish…

  11. Carfrew

    It looks as though a lot of Landlords are going to get creamed by the budget. I doubt Labour would have had the political cover to do it.

    I can only assume that the Tories have finally worked out that young people who are forced to rent for the rest of their lives are unlikely to end up being Tory voters. However, this will upset an awful lot of their base. However, they have nowhere else to go, or rather not yet.

  12. Anyone with details of this Leadership Poll in DT?

    Can’t get more than the headline on Google because of the paywall:-

    “Shock Labour leadership poll: Just 1 in 4 say Andy Burnham would be good Prime Minister………
    ” Poll suggests no Labour candidate seen as good PM material”

  13. COLIN

    Percentage who agree that this person has what it takes to be Prime Minister :

    Andy Burnham 27%
    Yvette Cooper 22%
    Jeremy Corbyn 17%
    Liz Kendall 16%

    It’s true that that there are slightly more people who say that Corbyn isn’t cut out to be Prime Minister than say the same about the other three candidates, but emphasis is very much on the word ‘slightly’.

    Percentage who do not agree that this person has what it takes to be Prime Minister :

    Jeremy Corbyn 36%
    Yvette Cooper 34%
    Liz Kendall 30%
    Andy Burnham 27
    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/

  14. Thanks Allan-looking encouraging for them all then :-)

  15. COLIN

    The words “dream ticket” appear to have eluded the party. ;-)

  16. @Crossbat

    ‘He is the only Labour leader to win in an election in the last 40 years. What was it about him personally, and the party he led to those three consecutive victories, that made this so? The answer to that question may trouble some on the left but it also holds the key to what Labour has to do to return to power.’

    I have pondered this. I read Blair’s speech with interest and was struck, once again, by the fact that he is a very, very good communicator of a point of view he truly believes in.

    I think that is what is attracting people to Corbyn. He can communicate and he seems clear on what he is communicating about. In direct contrast to Cooper for instance.

    So not as much difference there despite the two being on opposite sides of the Labour debate.

    I don’t know if its about policies. If Labour just present nuances on the Conservative position (AKA Blairism) then why would you vote for them and not Conservatives? The only thing making up people’s minds in that situation is a personality contest between the two leaders.

    It isn’t the 1980’s but neither is it 1997. Anyone aiming purely at an electorate right now is trying to hit a moving target. In addition Labour risks alienating those who did vote for it and are being told they are less relevant that those that voted Conservative (by Cooper et al). Not a good message.

    So go Corbyn I say.

  17. First post here!

    Long time reader of this blog and comments, also long term Labour supporter who finds a lot to agree with in what Jeremy Corbyn has to say, but doubts he can be the right choice to win in 2020.

    I cannot believe that JC comes across as the best candidate, but he does for the simple reason that he is authentic and sincere.

    Am I the only one who is staggered at the poor performance of the other three? Andy B seemed to be doing very well and looked set to come through the center left lane to pick up the votes of Liz and Yvette and beat Jeremy, but got himself into trouble with appearing to be indecisive over the Welfare Reform Bill. (In reality terms this could be rubbish, but most members/public £3 voters are not going to appreciate canny parliamentary tactics, especially when you appear to have committed to a clear No.)

    From my point of view though Liz is undoubtedly seen as the ‘Blairite’ standard bearer, there are three New Labour candidates who you couldn’t really get a fag paper between on most issues, and the idea of Andy B as more left wing is unconvincing.

    That JC has managed to be the most charismatic of the 4 is hard to understand, and I wonder what other posters think about this, is the PLP really so bereft of talent?

    I have been bombarded with emails etc but not seen much from the 3 mainstream candidates that would excite me in any of the hustings, just the usual playing it safe, with the exception of Liz who to be fair is saying it as she sees it, but was never going to get my vote.

  18. @Carfrew
    ‘not that you can’t be a proxy too!’

    Now I first read that as ‘a proxy troll’

    Interesting idea. :)

  19. Just thinking about next year’s Assembly election here in Wales.
    Plaid Cymru apparently going nowhere.
    Con about to introduce swingeing welfare cuts with wages well below UK average here.
    Labour having a civil war and no leadership candidates appearing popular.
    Lib Dem with only 1 MP here now.
    UKIP apparently on the slide.
    Any forecasts?

  20. @ Baz,

    The SNP post candidates and sweep it? ;)

    Nah, probably Labour as usual even if they’re a shambles in Westminster. People like Carwyn Jones.

  21. @BAZINWALES

    I suspect Osborne will be reintroducing the idea of regional pay too so that will put the cat among the pigeons.

    It’ll have to be Labour despite the leadership thing. I can’t see where else Wales will go.

  22. I have never seen a more unelectable bunch. The Labour party is in some trouble.

  23. Just thinking about next year’s Assembly election here in Wales.
    Plaid Cymru apparently going nowhere.
    Con about to introduce swingeing welfare cuts with wages well below UK average here.
    Labour having a civil war and no leadership candidates appearing popular.
    Lib Dem with only 1 MP here now.
    UKIP apparently on the slide.
    Any forecasts?
    ————————————————————

    Either a Labour victory or a Monster Raving Looney landslide.

  24. Saw this exchange on a comments section (I think it was the guardian website, can’t remember though):

    “Liz Kendall has no hope of being the next Labour leader – she should drop out of the race now and get behind her preferred candidate.”

    “Weren’t people saying the same thing about Jeremy Corbyn only a few weeks ago, though?”

    Which led me to wonder: are people on here writing off her chances or do they believe she’s still a decent outside bet?

  25. Interesting opinion polls are so quoted on this site when they are so discredited whether it be on the general election or the Greek referendum. Common sense is what counts.

    [That’s because it’s a site *about* opinion polling, it’s sort of it’s reason to exist. If you don’t care for them, please feel free not to read it – AW]

  26. @Baz,

    I went to a wedding in Barry about a month ago, and whilst visiting friends caught the local news on which Mr Jones was being interviewed. I have to say, even as a middle-class English southerner who usually votes Tory I found him refreshingly direct, likeable and moderate.

  27. In fact, if we had a slightly more flexible party political system, Labour could do far worse than Jones as their new leader. What chance a by-election in the Valleys?

  28. Labour Uncut predicts more news for pollsters when the Labour leadership result is declared.

    Tbf to Atul he wasnt far out of on the tory and labour share in his general election prediction but he seriously overestimated the libdems.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/07/22/sorry-that-labour-leadership-poll-is-nonsense-jeremy-corbyn-is-going-to-finish-fourth/

  29. Thats bad news for pollsters ,my bad.

  30. There is one reason JC will do well

    Tony Blair is against him.

  31. @07052015

    But Number Cruncher who also called the GE right, thinks JC’s support may be being undestimated. It all sounds a bit like guesswork at this stage.

    I suspect the polls are right in that JC will poll well of FP votes but then fall away on SP votes.

  32. @BazinWales

    At last, an obvious opening for you to stand as a charismatic independent, beloved by your community.

    Living as I do in a constituency where an independent polled 25% in the General Election, I am convinced that the time for a revival in the fortunes of independent candidates is upon us.

    The Baz Doorstep Challenge…

  33. Ipsos Mori – Con 37 Lab 31 LibDem 10 UKIP 9 Grn 8 Others 5

  34. Ipso Mori headline VI

    Con 37 Lab 3

  35. Sorry!

    Con 37 Lab 31 LD 10 UKIP 9 Green 8 others 5

  36. Ukip look a bit low.

    Miliband Labour overtook Tories in January 2011.Be interesting to see when that happens under the new leader.Predictions ?

  37. @Andrew.

    In the circumstances your first version was almost plausible..

  38. I’m in touch with a fair number of Labour people on the t’internet and at work, and:

    a) Jeremy Corbyn is very popular

    and

    b) Liz Kendall isn’t popular.

    Unless the people I know are unrepresentative, or they change their minds, I just don’t buy into the item on Labour Uncut.

    Generally speaking, they will not vote Liz, would love to vote Jeremy, but want a safer bet so are tossing a coin between Yvette and Andy,

  39. @07052015

    If I were in Labour’s shoes, I would not be too focussed on day to day politics or trying to be popular for some time.

    I would work out what sort of country I want to deliver, where we are now and the big ideas to get there.

    Labour desperately needs to find it’s soul first.

  40. @CMJ
    “If I were in Labour’s shoes, I would not be too focussed on day to day politics or trying to be popular for some time.”

    They may not have the time. The Tories are quite sensibly trying to front load their more contentious measures.

    Whatever happens with Labour; Ukip and the Greens are starting this parliament from a high base of support and the LDs starting to make up lost ground. We could be in for some interesting times.

  41. Of course, the run up to the EU Referendum is likely to boost UKIP.

    Post election, the Greens have been very quiet, but I think the Labour Leadership contest will have a bearing of all parties of the left.

    There is a general feeling that Natalie will stand down next year (the GP is too nice to push anyone), but I’ve heard rumours that now she has a good majority in Brighton, Caroline Lucas will be leader again. She just has to stand, and she will win by a country mile.

    It is thought that she stepped down to concentrate on retaining her seat, something she did with aplomb. She is a big hitter, so that would be interesting.

  42. @mr bc

    Welcome to UKPR

    “Am I the only one who is staggered at the poor performance of the other three? ”

    It’s partly a result of the voting system. AV with the 2nd preferences etc rewards the “least unliked” candidate. You win that kind of election by being as un-polarising as possible.

  43. Catman pointless expecting Labour or any political party to work out Big Ideas.

    Thats the job of the Leader working in concert with their chosen chancellor.

    I will be voting for Burnham and only Burnham as his big idea is no great secret -he wants to provide decent care for the elderly provided by the nhs .It will be Rachel Reeves job to finance this.In 21st century terms defo the biggest challenge facing all mature economies.He also seems to get the need to find a way of increasing new housing ,any party solving that problem would receive a substantial electoral dividend

    But to do either he has to win at least 50 -60 tory seats in 2020.And even then he could only govern with the support of the snp and a few more libdems .

    So he has to have a ten year plan -a daunting task.

  44. @RAF

    Just to be clear, that post was regarding the betting odds (it was written before the poll came out). I’m not saying the poll is underestimating Corbyn! If anything it’s at the upper end of what I was expecting. But it’s tough to tell…

  45. Corbyn is Now twenty ahead in Nominations. Im not sure if that the best sign through as some were very close and areas of similar demographics chose either Kendal or Corbyn. Id say Corbyn supporters are more likely to attend than Burnham/Cooper supporters on the whole. The second preferences will be key to this election through Corbyn could still win( Not that he will get many second and third preferences as the You Gove shows).

  46. This is not supposed to be a partisan comment although it stretches the boundaries. If I were to be partisan however, I might, as an old school Tory, be inclined to say; “come on Labour, vote Corbyn and make my day” Unfortunately for the Labour party, I could probably substitute any of the other candidates for Corbyn

  47. Just got back from Withington CLP’s leadership and deputy leadership hustings and meeting. Voting figures as best as I remember off the top of my head.

    After 2 rounds, Yvette Cooper had 120 votes, Jeremy Corbyn 50

    There were 200+ people present.

    Liz Kendall on I think 17 and Andy Burnham on about 35 were both eliminated on the first round, Yvette Cooper was on about 60 on the first round, and Jeremy Corbyn definitely 47.

    So conclusions – Remember that Withington came over from Lib Dems in May, it is demographically very much a metropolitan, chattering classes trendy suburb constituency, so in theory the sort of CLP Liz Kendall should be able to convince, but she came absolutely nowhere, she is dead in the water. Jeremy Corbyn had a strong showing, but he picked up only 3 second preferences, whereas Yvette Cooper DOUBLED her votes.

    I would say that the significant facts here are that Liz is going nowhere, and that Jeremy is doing well, but will not pick up second preferences, as he can only hope to take them from Yvette or Andy supporters, who are more likely to give each other 2nd preference and Jeremy 3rd where they put Jeremy on their preferences in large measure.

    @ Omnishambles, like you say, the vagaries of AV do tend to reward fence sitting.

    None of the candidates were there in person. They were represented by:

    John Healey MP for Yvette Cooper – He was the outstanding performer of the event – clear, authoritative, passionate and directly addressing the questions asked by the members without notes rather than spouting sound bites or general pre-written statements. I believe his performance would have influenced the audience into the strong showing for Yvette relative to Andy.

    Cllr. Julie Reid for Jeremy Corbyn who was also very strong and passionate, but tripped up on the last question for me – asked about restoring credibility on the economy, went onto a rather defensive rant that we shouldnt blaim the poor for the crash, it was multinational banks and FS industry not Labour overspending which caused it, saying we must avoid demonisation of benefit claimants andbuying into tory and right wing press narrative of deserving and undeserving poor, typical divide and rule. These are all very valid points, but pointedly, the questioner asked how JC would restore Labours economic credibility and she had no answer for this.

    Luciana Berger MP represented Andy Burnham – she was a little late after being stuck in traffic and a little unwell, she gave a decent performance but was not quite on the pace, but made a very good contribution about Andys record and how he could have general appeal across the country and party to lead Labour to victory in 2020.

    Nick Bent the PPC for Warrington South spoke for Liz Kendall. He was very competent in his delivery and got his point across very well, saying that Liz was the only candidate who really got how out of touch Labour were or was prepared to own up to it. He did raise a few eyebrows when he said that although he and Liz had not supported Ed M for leader, they, like the rest of the party had united behind him after he won! He was good, but his pitch did not really resonate with the audience.

    Deputy Leader was a 60 – 60 tie between Tom Watson and I think Stella Creasey after 5 rounds. It was agreed to not nominate any candidate.

    I saw a few peoples preferences round me as I deliberated my vote. To sum up I would divide the members into 3 camps:

    Jeremy Corbyn’s true believers (25 – 30%)

    Left leaning centrists ( AB or YC 1 or 2, often JC as 3 or sometimes 2 – approx 60%)

    Liz Kendall’s lonely band (5-10% max)

  48. CLP nominations update – Corbyn 91 – Burnham 83 – Cooper 79 – Kendal 14.

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