A week or so ago Stephen Bush at the New Statesman wrote a piece about how “private polling” from a couple of the Labour leadership campaigns was showing Jeremy Corbyn ahead. At the time I was all set to write a “private polling is nothing special, and there’s no reason to believe it above the published stuff” post, except there wasn’t actually any published stuff. Now there is, and it’s in line with the private polling Stephen was apparently shown.

AYouGov poll of Labour party members (including £3 supporters and trade unionists who have registered to vote) in tomorrow’s Times has first round preferences are CORBYN 43%, BURNHAM 26%, COOPER 20%, KENDALL 11%. As might be expected, Corbyn’s large lead on the first round is chipped away by reallocations of the second preferences of Kendall and Cooper voters in the second and third rounds, but it’s not enough – Corbyn still narrowly beats Burnham by 53% to 47% in the final round.

In the deputy race Tom Watson has a clear lead with 42% to Stella Creasy on 21%, Caroline Flint on 17%, Ben Bradshaw on 11% and Angela Eagle on 10%. Watson comfortably wins once second preferences are reallocated.

So Jeremy Corbyn, who only got onto the ballot by Labour MPs “lending” him votes to broaden the debate, looks like he has serious chance of winning. The Labour leadership race still has weeks to go so there is time for things to change. What I am pondering is how many Labour members were voting Corbyn in order to send a message about Labour staying true to its roots and principles rather than actually wanting him as leader, might they recoil at the thought of him actually winning? Or alternatively, might him being ahead add strength to his campaign now it looks like he could actually do it? We shall see…

255 Responses to “YouGov/Times polls show Jeremy Corbyn ahead in Labour leadership race”

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  1. Interesting that in the yougov tables that young women are the strongest supporters of Corbyn.

    They almost seem disdainful of both cooper and kendall.Cooper seems to have stronger support amongst older voters .

  2. Re discussion about Welsh Assembly above:
    Labour seldom win outright here. It is usually a Lab minority government, with the budget being agreed with either PC or Lib Dem, or a coalition. We have had Lab/LD and Lab/PC in the past. At the moment Lab have exactly half the seats and negotiate over the budget.

  3. Labour are doomed if they choose Jeremy Corbyn not because hes left wing but because he will be 70 at the general election!

  4. As others, I have not posted on here since the night of the GE, as a staunch centre right Tory, I hope Corbyn wins, simply to open up a dialogue as to how the far left can reconcile the views of 80% of the population, just wanting middle of the road policies. Kippers to the right, Corbyn to the left, it is almost a Steps song!

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