Straight after the Greek referendum was announced actual polling evidence seemed quite light, but there has now been the expected rush in polling. Polls from a handful of different companies are all painting a consistent picture of YES and NO being neck and neck. In fieldwork conducted on Monday and Tuesday there was still a small lead for NO, but across all the polls conducted in the last couple of days the position has been almost a dead heat.

The most recent polls are below:

Metron/Parapolitik (Thurs-Fri) – YES 46%, NO 47% (No ahead by 1%)
GPO/Mega TV (Wed-Fri) – YES 44.1%, NO 43.7% (Yes ahead by 0.4%)
Alco/Proto Thema (Wed-Fri) – YES 41.7%, NO 41.1% (Yes ahead by 0.6%)
Ipsos (Tues-Fri) – YES 44%, NO 43% (Yes ahead by 1%)
Uni of Macedonia/Bloomberg (Thurs) – YES 42.5%, NO 43% (No ahead by 0.5%)

In the week we also had the monthly ComRes/Daily Mail poll. Latest voting intention figures are CON 41%, LAB 29%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 5%. Tabs are here.

UPDATE: And the actual Greek result (with just over a third of the votes counted) looks like a solid victory for NO, absolutely miles away from what the Greek polls were showing. Ouch! I don’t know enough about Greek politics or Greek polling to hazard any guesses as to what they got wrong, but I imagine a country in economic turmoil is not the easiest to poll correctly in terms of contacting people, or to getting any firm demographic figures to weight or sample by – and that’s before you get to whether people feel able to answer the question honestly. As it happens most of the Greek polls were pretty good at their general election earlier this year, but clearly not this time.


439 Responses to “Latest Greek referendum polls”

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  1. should have read “Federal Europe”.

  2. @ToH

    “Perhaps because another way isn’t possible. The UK has just elected a Government who clearly believe in cutting back the size of the state to encourage growth and employment. It can be argued that they have been successful at it so far.”

    ————-

    Well sure, you can argue that, if you ignore all the downsides, and just wanna keep pushing that meme regardless. But c’mon Howie, the cricket is starting!!…

  3. TOH

    Agreed. Let’s leave the UK out of the argument.

    “a Government who clearly believe in cutting back the size of the state to encourage growth and employment.”

    I’m assuming by this comment that you think there’s a lesson here for Greece?

    Thing is, over the past 6 years, they have cut the size of the state more savagely than any other developed nation on Earth. Their Govt spending is down by something like 20% over the past 6 years. So you’d expect growth to come roaring back to fill the void, no? The Troika certainly did in 2010. It predicted a mild recession, a small drop in GDP, a brief spike in unemployment, then roaring growth.

    What actually happened of course was that the Greek Govt cut back as it was told to do and the economy fell off a cliff.

    http://multiplier-effect.org/files/2013/08/Fig4-Real-GDP_Greek-SA-2013.png

    So, 5 years on, they have seen their economy shrink by 25% and unemployment hit 27%.

    I find it genuinely admirable that the Troika is so certain that they are correct, despite this evidence, that they STILL insist that Austerity is the way out for Greece. But of course, it’s nothing to do with economics. You won’t find a sensible and neutral economist on the planet who believes that. The IMF themselves issued a report last week which admitted that they had totally ballsed this up. No. It’s about the politics. It’s about politicians who have painted themselves into a corner and cannot now admit that they have made the worst European macro-economic decision in 80 years.

    As I say, God alone knows how we get out if this. Continued Austerity will result in Greece becoming a failed state. But Merkel cannot accept anything other than continued Austerity, or she will be kebabbed at home.

  4. Carfrew

    I appreciate there are downsides but in my view more than offset by the upsides.

    Yes i know the cricket is starting but i have to say I am looking forward to the budget even more. Still i will keep in touch with the score. I just hope we play up to our capability, against what is a very strong Australian side.

  5. @ToH

    Well, to be fair, it’s quite good for boomers who enjoy all the advantages of the State assistance in employment and wages and education and lower house prices in their earlier years, then can profit during all the privatisations and house price inflation, then get protected in their dotage, but maybe not so handy for the rest.

    Budget will probably be handy overall for me personally, but the opening salvos of the Ashes have my attention rather more. Plus tennis quarter finals, and even a bit of le Tour…

  6. Leftylampton

    There would have been a lesson there for the Greeks if they had left the Euro in 2009, returned to a Drachma which would have been in effect been a major devaluation. Of course being outside the Euro the devaluation route was exactly what the UK used.

    As you say the Greeks and the EU politico’s could not face that so they went for more austerity without devaluation, the Greek economy is now bust and the EU politicos have got egg all over their faces. I have lots of sympathy for the Greek people, at least those who work hard and pay their taxes, not much for the rest.

  7. CARFREW

    As somebody born in 1940 I would not argue with that. We are a blessed generation. Whether we dersve it or not is another question. :-)

  8. LEFTY

    I’m afraid this much recommended “democracy” counts as much in Finland, Latvia & Slovakia as it does in Greece.

    Mountainous are the tomes written on the systemic flaws in the European Project.

    Perhaps one those now being exposed is that cultural differences between members run deep. And it is culture after all-a peoples’ deepest & most strongly held beliefs , which underpins behaviour in times of stress.

    If the idea of converging economies & uniform fiscal policies was fatally flawed, how much more flawed the idea of uniform culture?

    The Soviet Union learned -in the end-how dear a people’s identity & culture is to them .

    Do I suggest an unreasonable parallel?

    On the Greek Debt- I don’t see a problem with Debt repayment. The Creditors know it will never be repaid-well not until decades of inflation have eroded it away. But it can’t be written off because many books of rules. And anyway, the objective of all this must be to restore Greek access to the capital markets & get them of the Troika teat. They can’t do that with a credit rating mediated by default history.

    So they will just stretch the term & repayment schedule to something approaching infinity.

    The bigger problem is new debt & the conditionality terms.

    If Tsipras expect more creditors to throw good money after bad he has to prove to them that he can & will make Greece self financing.

  9. @ToH

    I was once part of a lengthy debate elsewhere on the question of “what have the boomers done for us” which I won’t go into what with the cricket being on.

    I’ll just say as an aside out of interest that while quite a lot of the counter-cultural stuff the sixties peeps claim credit for really stemmed from the Fifties Beat Generation, they might fairly claim more credit for the Eco thing which got a real shot in the arm once we started seeing pics of the earth from the moon, alongside the heat waves in the mid-seventies that outweighed the Sixties cooling due to particulates…

    ‘Cos as you probably remember, before global warming the worry was about sinking into another ice age…

    Oh, and boomers gave us some bloody good music, too…

  10. Meanwhile, Lyth has already fallen…

  11. @Lefty L

    It seems to me that the Greek crisis is a morality tale now, whether we like it or not. Not in the Dickensian “Little Dorritt” sense of creditors v debtors and the Christian virtues of frugality, prudence and financial integrity ( laughable concepts now anyway in the modern world of corporate finance and banking), but morality in the context of what degree of human suffering we are prepared to inflict when there are alternatives at hand to ameliorate and mitigate the misery.

    That’s the real moral choice. Put simply; balance sheets v human suffering. It’s easy to opt for balance sheets when cocooned in comfort and affluence, no matter how righteously and deservedly you think you’ve acquired the cocoon, but it’s a choice that denies our basic humanity. I don’t doubt that a deal to alleviate the grind of austerity in Greece would be contrary to all sorts of accounting and banking orthodoxies and strictures, but bust those rules we must if a catastrophe is to be averted in Greece.

    Don’t forget the political perspective too. There will be some on the right infuriated by the result of the Greek election in January, and by the referendum result on Sunday, and the sight of a leftist government in Athens, enjoying the support of its people, will be angering them beyond measure. They won’t be seeing much beyond a desire to change the regime in Greece and, for now, the Greek people may be hapless collateral in that game.

  12. Colin

    Tsipras WANTS to make Greece self-financing. He’s wanting a deal that will allow the growth that is a pre-condition of being self-financing. It is the Troika that is insistent on more of the same policies that have shrunk the Greek economy by a quarter. More of that, and self-financing of the debt will NEVER happen.

    And (CB as well) the political problem is that the people of Northern Europe have been spun a very particular tale that suited the politicians who were telling it. So yes, they have a democratic right to say “no more”, but they are making that decision on the back of 5 years of being told a) that Greece borrowed too much (correct) b) that Greece is doing nothing to put its house in order (utterly incorrect) and c) NOTHING about the fact that the Troika has screwed up historically by imposing a scenario on Greece that means that the Northern Europeans will never get their money back, because the Greek economy has collapsed.

    Democracy eh?

  13. I am surprised at the dithering that has been going on. From both sides. I appreciate the result of the referendum was unexpected, but surely both sides should have had responses in place.

    Certain consequences are inevitable and certain securable outcomes desirable. I would have thought that these could be dealt with quite speedily.

    Instead there has been a lot of blame attribution, and ineffective playing to the gallery. The EZ leadership has been especially scattergun and thoughtless.

    Put them all in a room, lock the door, and don’t give them food or drink until they reach an agreement.

    It seems to me that the solution should involve:

    1. A further substantial haircut for the lenders, as Colin suggests, as I have previously, in the form of repayment stretching out to near infinity.

    2. No repayments until a sustainable recovery is under way.

    3. An abandonment of counter-productive heavy-handed ‘austerity’ which is presently inappropriate, but a recognition that certain aspects of state activity should be curtailed over time e.g. pensions at an early age.

    4. An immediate injection of liquidity and the banks re-opening as soon as practical

    5. Greece continues in the Eurozone ( both sides want this )

    6. The introduction of measures to stimulate business

    7. Above all, an abandonment of rhetoric, and an introduction of common sense and reasonableness

    8. Draconian action against tax evasion and corruption

  14. Returning to issues of Euclid, perhaps he really is the man for a nation under the cosh*?

    [* ‘Cosh’ = hyperbolic cosine, and there has certainly been some hyperbole here…]

  15. Crossbat
    It is not right wing politicians who fear the Greek government which after all has a hard right component but the centre left which is looking down the barrel of a very big gun.
    It isn’t New Democracy which has all but disappeared in Greece but Pasok. It isn’t Fine Gael which is suffering eclipse in Ireland but the Labour Party. You can tell the same tale across Europe.
    It is perhaps for this reason that some of the angriest speeches in today’s European Parliament came from the centre left.

  16. Millie
    Not much realism there I am afraid.

    According to press reports today 16 of the 18 members of the EZ now want Greece out. The exceptions were France and Cyprus.

    You don’t mention the key issue of further loans to the Greek government which will be their demand.

    And a Russian might say that the call for draconian action on tax evasion is enough to make hens laugh. Greek governments have promised this for years but despite initial rhetoric the current government seem further away from this than ever. I saw press reports in the US that collection of VAT and Income tax were currently at very low levels.

  17. No mention of the Balance of Payments. I wonder why? ‘Britain is not paying its way in the world’

  18. Meanwhile, for those interested in internal Labour navel gazing, this could be quite a significant development if true, even if the ability of “backers” of one candidate to influence a mass membership vote must be limited.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/07/corbyn-backers-threaten-transfer-support-burnham-cooper

  19. Barney

    If the centre-left want to survive they need to stop being spineless and useless.

  20. Having held my counsel on Greece for a long time now, here are just a few thoughts:

    1. In the absence of any willingness to write off debts, Greece has been effectively bankrupt from around 2011, when the contraction of the Greek economy under the troika’s medicine really set in and debt-GDP ratios soared year-on-year. From about that point of no return, Greece was always going to default at some point in the absence of an early exit from the Euro and large scale devaluation of a new Greek currency, the only question was when. It’s as though the price of keeping the life support machine on has been that the patient has been required to take more of that arsenic-based quack remedy that is slowly killing her.

    2. Had there been the political will on both sides to engineer a managed exit of Greece from the Euro even as late as 2011, this might have been avoided. Now it’s far too late whatever happens.

    3. You do wonder whether the “negotiations” over the past few months have been little more than a charade for the sake of politics, given how far apart are the two sides. The Syriza leadership surely realises that it’s never going to be offered a deal for large scale debt write off within the Euro, so it’s only option is to leave. But politically it can’t be seen by its electorate to be initiating that, so it has to be seen by the electorate to be pushed out, and with the referendum allowing it to argue that’s it’s following the choice of the Greek people, it’s well on course to achieving that. Germany is meanwhile concerned with the continuance of the Euro project, and constrained also by an electorate unwilling to allow what are seen to be more concessions to the “profligate” Greeks or to put good money after bad (the latter being a quite reasonable view given the inevitability of Grexit).

    4. The cost of all that politicking in recent weeks will though be that the exit will be unnecessarily chaotic, with the Greek government seemingly having made little preparation for the consequences.

    5. If the EU does though railroad Greece into a Euro exit against its (apparent) will and for which there is no legal provision, might Greece then turn around and declare that it can set aside its own legal obligations in terms of debts owed to the ECB? Maybe that is the scenario Greece wishes to end up with, where it .

    6. More generally, in the event of a unilateral Greek default, we may be back to scenarios of many centuries ago, when the ability to collect debts depended upon the ability to otherwise inflict pain on the debtor. The EU does not have tanks to send in, nor does it hold Tspiras’s daughter (Helen of Troy) as a hostage. The ECB doesn’t appear to me to possess the leverage of the Iron Bank of Braavos.

    7. Given the stark reality of the approach of the EU towards Greece, and the confirmation of the nature of this unaccountable power, attitudes towards the EU amongst those on the left could start to change back to where they were in the 1980s, at least towards grudging acceptance rather than outright enthusiasm for the EU, if not outright euroscepticism.

  21. Good afternoon all from yet again a rain soaked Mount Florida.

    Tuned into watch some of the budget during my lunch break. I wont elaborate on the substance of the budget but what the hell was that sitting in the speakers chair? Kept interrupting and looked like an older version of Noddy.

    I’m looking at one of the proposals for the Northern Powerhouse and its on pricing. Looks like Osborne is devolving power to Northern branches of Poundland and Poundworld to set their own pricing.

  22. P Haines
    Not much I disagree with in your comments.

    Hawthorn
    It is the fate of social democrats that they have to be brave enough to seem spineless. The distinguishing feature of social democrats since the first German arguments about “revisionism” is moderation as they should always be keeping at the front of their mind the needs of the most vulnerable who suffer most in “principled” emotional conflicts.

    The completely reckless tactics of the Greek government have left the poor and vulnerable in a terrible position in Greece. It is no co-incidence to me that the only front-line politicians to argue forcefully for “yes” (which would still have been terrible but less so) were the mayors of the biggest cities. I know nothing of their politics but they will have the job of trying to pick up the pieces and deal with a dreadful aftermath. Euclid and Varifakis can return to their cosmopolitan academic lives.

  23. Barney

    An example of the above is the living wage announcement. (I know there is giving with one hand taking with the other going on here).

    Labour spent ages wibbling over whether to do it, whether it should be voluntary, whether it should be incentivised. The Blairites thought it might be anti-business.

    Then Osborne makes it compulsory.

  24. Barney

    The poor were stuffed in Greece long before Syriza came along. It is now the people who benefited from the clientelistic politics (mostly middle class/wealthy/business owners) who are suffering more than previously.

    It is also worth remembering that Syriza includes plenty of social democrats. However they are social democrats who actually remember the basic macroeconomics, unlike the Blairite wing of Labour, the SPD etc.

    Anyone social democrat who thinks that the Eurozone and their apologists have the best interests of the poor of Greece at heart either need to smell some seriously strong coffee or be honest and admit they are really conservative.

  25. Phil Haines

    You sum it up much better than me.

    Syriza should certainly have a contingency plan to exit the Euro.

    BUT:

    If they admit it at any point, it would become a self-fulfilling prophesy so the fact there is little sign of contingency planning does not mean it is not happening.

    If they are pushed out, they might as well default. They would have to run a balanced budget either way.

    The countries I really feel for are those like Slovenia who will be innocent victims of the idiocy of the last five years.

  26. AC thats Lindsay Hoyle Chairman of Ways and Means son of Doug former Labour minister -yes a bit eccentric but arent they all.

    Typical Osborne budget nicking everybody elses ideas -labour,libdems,miliband,boris .

    Had to laugh at the apprenticeship levy -my first job was at the Engineering Industry Training Board set up by Harold Wilsons government in 1964 but abolished by Margaret Thatcher as an onerous cost on industry.It had the revolutionary idea of ……a levy to promote apprenticeships.Plus ca change ..

  27. @070515

    “…my first job was at the Engineering Industry Training Board set up by Harold Wilsons government in 1964 but abolished by Margaret Thatcher as an onerous cost on industry.”

    Happy days. I was with BL Cars in the fag end days of the Callaghan Government and I remember working with the EITB circa 1977. Then it was all about having training in plans in place that would gain EITB approval in order to get exemption from the levy. A sort of negative incentive, if you like, but quite effective in terms of forcing Companies to organise training and apprenticeships for their workforces. A relic of Wilson’s old labourist and corporatist Britain of the 60s; an anathema to the hubristic Thatcherites who swept into power in 1979.

    Looking at Osborne today, delivering the first Tory Budget for nigh on 20 years, I’m sensing a real and fundamental changing of the political guard. Labour are swimming against a strong political tide once again and for those of us on the centre left, it’s time to don the hard hats and hunker down a while.

    Never defeated though!

    :-)

  28. Carfrew

    “‘Cos as you probably remember, before global warming the worry was about sinking into another ice age”

    Hence my scepticism about man made global warming.

  29. Leftylampton

    “Democracy eh?”

    Well put another good argument to support the desire of people like me who want to exit the EU asap.

  30. CROSSBAT11

    Your analysis of “swimming against a strong political tide looks” correct to me. A significant reforming budget like it or not.

    I like your comment of “never defeated though”, just how I felt in the 70’s.

  31. Or is it six ?

  32. anything I would write today in response to what I have been reading through the posts would be against the comments policies.

    But I’m reading :-)

  33. I found a source that cannot be accused of bias to my viewpoint.

    Well austerity worked well everywhere, except for the lazy, corrupt Greeks:

    http://app.ft.com/cms/s/084f9ee0-9652-11e4-a40b-00144feabdc0.html?sectionid=home

    And the centre left can sleep calmly as their dreams of helping the poor is is guarded by the 7th fleet.

  34. Unites rules conference reaffirmed affiliation to Labour but Len McCluskey promised the conference would be recalled if the relationship with Labour changed -eg if Liz Kendall got elected or the party supported austerity.

    Reading between the lines -the vote to disaffiliate would have been close if Corbyn had been kept off the ballot paper.

  35. @ToH

    It’s curious, how so many of a more libertarian persuasion have issues with man-made global warming. Why would being libertarian result in a uniformly different take on the science and the scientific method?

    But of course, if MMGW turns out to be true, it would likely require quite a lot of state action, or even globally co-ordinated action, which is not supposed to be necessary. It always is of course, or is often desirable, e.g. the eradication of small pox.

    That’s not to say Libertarians are always wrong, ‘cos States can screw things up as well of course…

  36. Good evening all from a very rare sunny Giffnock. 16 miles of mountain bike trails up on the Cathkins completed although quite muddy it was fun.

    07052015
    Speccie says george has pinched five of milibands ideas
    ______

    I never knew ole Colin wore glasses? ;-)

  37. @ Carfrew

    There is an extremely strong correlation between right wing (short hand ToH is more complex) social and economic views and denial of man made global warming. It’s easy to find the evidence. I think even yougov has a poll on this.

  38. Pretty underwhelming Budget. By the way there are 224 000 businesses in the UK with negative net worth.

  39. WOLF

    I think for some in the lower earnings brackets and those on benefits will find today’s budget a little overwhelming although some will benefit with the new tax threshold moving up to £12.500.

    Over all the budget was just another nail in the coffin for people already struggling on welfare but the living wage will be welcomed when it’s legalized.

  40. “but the living wage will be welcomed when it’s legalized”

    ———–

    Until prices on essentials go up to match it…

  41. @laszlo

    Yes I wouldn’t want to deny Howard’s complexity. He does appreciate cricket after all…

  42. CARFREW

    Yip something will no doubt have to give when its introduced which is a shame because all people want is a decent wage to live on.

  43. Allan Christie

    “Living Wage” at £7.20 ph was last accurate in 2011 – and that included assumption of tax credits at current levels.

    Dumping subsidies for employers to pay low wages at the taxpayers expense would have been a good thing – but this isn’t it.

  44. 0705
    Undoubtedly

    Carfrew
    Thats more like it
    Much appreciated
    MMGW
    You may know that a prominent voice as described is sun-spot expert Piers Corbyn, brother of Jeremy, former prominent member of the IMG.
    I was speaking at an energy conference dinner so have promised to chase up thorium tomorrow

  45. Struggling to understand the budget. Major shifts from 4 months ago, which I assume could only be political. Lib Dems and Labour were right it seems – deficit reduction should be slowed, taxes should take more of the strain, business needs to play it’s part. All very odd.

    Some good measures in there, but I wonder when the details sink in whether the changes to dividend taxation may begin to create problems.

    I suspect Osbourne is going to hit small business owners really quite hard with this, as a dividend in excess of £5K is quite normal for people who set up and own small businesses.

    I get the feeling that there is a good deal of head scratching all round on this budget, and we might not know the full shape of the response for some time.

  46. Meant to say – budget looks really bad for students. Grants for low income families ended, with ‘greater support’ in the form of higher loans! Tuition fees rising with inflation and the repayment thresholds frozen for five years.

  47. Hawthorn
    Living Wage
    I agree with Old Nat (a scene you seldom see)

    Syriza
    If Syriza was either taking dramatic action against entrenched vested interests or making serious preparations for Grexit I would be less hostile to them but I don’t think there is evidence for one or the other.

    Unless a vast deception is going on, there looks to have been a historic lack of preparedness for default. On the contrary steps have been taken to centralise all public resources in the government with every last penny spent in defence of the current position. Not only every last penny but also I believe forced loans from publicly owned utilities such as the Athens underground. This seems to mean that everything will go absolutely bust at once.

    I have tried to find out if action against favoured elites has taken place rather than been threatened and have not found any. Again on the contrary, I saw an article in the Guardian saying nothing had been done and I spoke to a friend who is a supporter of a leftist group trying to advise the Syriza government and again he reported dissatisfaction at a lack of seriousness in tackling for example the very rich.

    As I said some time ago I suspect that the KKE would have made a better fist of both and aroused less mistrust from the EZ group.

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