Straight after the Greek referendum was announced actual polling evidence seemed quite light, but there has now been the expected rush in polling. Polls from a handful of different companies are all painting a consistent picture of YES and NO being neck and neck. In fieldwork conducted on Monday and Tuesday there was still a small lead for NO, but across all the polls conducted in the last couple of days the position has been almost a dead heat.

The most recent polls are below:

Metron/Parapolitik (Thurs-Fri) – YES 46%, NO 47% (No ahead by 1%)
GPO/Mega TV (Wed-Fri) – YES 44.1%, NO 43.7% (Yes ahead by 0.4%)
Alco/Proto Thema (Wed-Fri) – YES 41.7%, NO 41.1% (Yes ahead by 0.6%)
Ipsos (Tues-Fri) – YES 44%, NO 43% (Yes ahead by 1%)
Uni of Macedonia/Bloomberg (Thurs) – YES 42.5%, NO 43% (No ahead by 0.5%)

In the week we also had the monthly ComRes/Daily Mail poll. Latest voting intention figures are CON 41%, LAB 29%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 5%. Tabs are here.

UPDATE: And the actual Greek result (with just over a third of the votes counted) looks like a solid victory for NO, absolutely miles away from what the Greek polls were showing. Ouch! I don’t know enough about Greek politics or Greek polling to hazard any guesses as to what they got wrong, but I imagine a country in economic turmoil is not the easiest to poll correctly in terms of contacting people, or to getting any firm demographic figures to weight or sample by – and that’s before you get to whether people feel able to answer the question honestly. As it happens most of the Greek polls were pretty good at their general election earlier this year, but clearly not this time.


439 Responses to “Latest Greek referendum polls”

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  1. Why do you put the Lib Dems in third place in your poll results when they are behind UKIP?

  2. If those greek polls are correct then its too close to call .

    City types here are betting on Yes .

    Uk bookies have Yes on 1/2,No on 7/4.

    Wishful thinking ?

    Its so close whoever loses is gonna feel pretty sore and the winners are hardly going to have much legitimacy .

  3. JOHNOGOLIVIE1615.
    Good Afternoon to you; I think the Lib Dems may not be in the correct place due to the very high numbers that UKPR seems to report, for reasons which some people on UKPR are researching.

  4. Reports- Osborne thinks Miliband was “on to something ” on non doms -shame Ed Balls and Chuka didnt.

  5. Greek polls neck and neck.

    Reminds me of something closer to home…..

    :-)

  6. 07052015.
    Good Afternoon to you; maybe Ed M should have entrenched the Non Dom policy in stone, or included it in his never-to-be-forgotten passages in his Conference speech in September 2014.

  7. I am wondering whether the SNP have plans to disrupt Osborne’s Budget speech next week.They did this to Lawson back in the late 80s when we ended up having several divisions in the middle of his speech following interruptions which led to the MPs concerned being ‘named’ by the Deputy Speaker. The SNP MPs refused to leave and this led to Votes being called to uphold the Deputy Speaker’s ruling. It caused quite a bit of mayhem at a time when they only had 3 MPs – with 56 the potential is much greater!

  8. The gamblers’ suspicion will be that if the numbers telling polsters is even then the outcome will be a yes as emotion supports no but personal calculation leans to yes.

  9. Given the politics of Greece, it would also be interesting to see the usual opinion polls for party preference in the event of a “snap election”. The only source I have found online is here: http://www.electograph.com/search/label/Greece

    However, I find it hard to believe that these are the only polls going on.

    Our media keep referring to a “snap election” in the event that the Greeks vote “Yes” in the referendum and Mr Tsipras then resigns as Prime Minister. In the event of such an eventuality, the Greek Constitution is quite clear, as I understand it.

    The President must call on the leader of the biggest Parliamentary Party – Tsipras / SYRIZA – to attempt to form a new majority Government. The mandate lasts for two days. If Tsipras fails, the mandate passes to the leader of the second biggest Parliamentary Party – Samaras / Nea Demokratia – for two days. If he, too, fails to form a majority government, the mandate passes to the leader of the third party – Michaloliakos / Golden Dawn – and so on. Only after this process has been exhausted does the President have to dissolve the Hellenic Parliament and call a “snap” general election.

    The general polling evidence, until very recently, was still that SYRIZA would win any snap election.

  10. About a week ago Yes was 4/1 on.

  11. I suspect that Yes will win, as the threat and fear of voting No is very strong.

    However, I think yes win by 55/45 or 60/40 will still be very problematic.

    The action really starts next week.

  12. This always happens. I do a long complicated comment, finally remember to press refresh and discover Anthony has already covered it. The additional polls on the Greek referendum that have trickled out are less than you would think looking at the Wiki entries:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_2015#After_the_referendum_announcement

    As far as I can tell the six entries for PAMAK (U of Macedonia) are actually derived from a graph on the Bloomberg site purporting to show the daily change in Yes/No over the dates 27 Jun to 2 Jul while the only polling data says it is a sample of 1042 on the end date. Presumably the daily figures are either as just from that day or (more likely) a cumulative figure. Similarly the five Metron Analysis polls look like they are really all daily cumulatives of the same one (sample 1410, f/w 28 Jun – 3 Jul).[1]

    This means Anthony’s figures for those two pollsters may be misleading and he seems to have missed the Public Issue/AVGI one. So the current list of polls since the referendum was called should look like:

    Metron (28/6-3/7) Yes 46%, No 47%

    GPO (1-3/7)[2] Yes 44%, No 44%

    Alco (1-3/7) Yes 42%, No 41%

    Ipsos (30/6-3/7) Yes 44%, No 43%

    Public Issue (30/6-2/7) Yes 43%

    PAMAK (27/6-2/7) Yes 43%, No 43%

    Alco (30/6-1/7) Yes 42%, No 40%[3]

    tothepoint (29-30/6) Yes 37%, No 40%

    ProRata (28-30/6) Yes 33%, No 54%

    In terms of detail, the two most useful ones are Ipsos and Public Issue both of whom have detailed reports in English (yay!) – links from above. PI is particularly informative because of the various sample breakdowns it does.

    What is quite interesting is that many characteristics show a pretty even split between Yes and No: men/women; urban/rural; public/private employment; geographic area. The biggest predictor is age (or age-related such as education[4]) – 71% of under-25s support No, only 26% of over-65s.

    Political allegiance (based on vote in January) is fairly predictive as well Even the KKE abstentionism being reflected (though most still say they will vote).

    [1] As already noted, this splitting up seems to have been designed to push the idea that the ‘momentum’ is with the Yes side, but it’s meaningless unless you take separate, independent samples for each time period. I’ve never really understood this obsession with ‘mo’ (“At this rate 120% of the electorate will be voting for our candidate”) as it assumes a very mechanistic view of public opinion, but the media, especially in the US, seem to love it.

    [2] This appears to be the final version of the one for BNP Paribas which was released early, presumably based on half the sample, because it showed Yes in the lead.

    [3] Previously reported as 45% to 43% – there are various questions in the report but as this has been put up in image form I can’t use translate to determine which is correct. Where’s Virgilio when you need him? The two Alco polls do appear to be separate samples.

    [4] Both those with Tertiary and only Primary education are significantly lower No supporters. The first because professionals seem stronger Yes supporters, the second because of the age effect. A cynic might also argue that these are the groups that have done best out of the low tax paying regime in the past and are hoping for a return to the bad old days.

  13. Chris I see Bournemouth have been doing up the airport-a nice touch as you will get plenty of private jets coming in for games plus teams I guess.

    Anyway the earlier general elections I recall were often dominated by the balance of payments .Noone mentions it now -a sign of complacency and the economic illiteracy of politicians and the media obsessed with share prices.

    I hadnt realised just how bad our deficit had become -a sad symptom of our decline as a manufacturing nation .But the newspaper that shouldnt be mentioned published this a few days ago.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/jun/30/uk-current-account-deficit-the-forgotten-deficit

  14. Two new polls from Roger’s above link :
    Metron 4 Jul Yes 43 No 49

    Pamak 3/4 Jul Yes 40.5 No 46

  15. Oops! I managed to miss out the Public Issue ‘No’ figure which was also 43%. Or Yes 42.5%, No 43.0% as even Anthony seems to have succumbed to the lure of the decimal point.

    A direct link to those useful PI graphics is:

    http://www.publicissue.gr/en/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Referendum_2015.pdf

    Two more ‘polls’ have appeared on the Wiki article, both claiming to be the latest daily instalment from PAMAK and Metron. However both only link to the articles that covered the summary to the previous days poll. I can’t find any other online evidence and I can’t be bothered to sort out the history to verify as the page is knee-deep in an edit war.

    Both ‘show’ a No lead (PAMAK 40.5/46.0; Metron 43.0/49.0) but I’m sceptical.

  16. Andrew,

    Hen will you be updating the voting intentions chart. I just wish to see the back of the old one please. So depressing!

  17. ?..When…

  18. Given that voting Yes is being painted as unpatriotic, I wonder whether there are ‘shy’ Yes voters.

  19. 07052015
    Hello to you, this lovely Independence Day evening on the Wessex Seaside.

    I remember the 1970 GE week, and the newspaper headline in West Croydon about a shock for Wilson over the freak Balance of Payments figures for that month, just after England lost to West Germany.

  20. Chrislane

    And Labour did not even try to make an election issue of the dreadful Balance of Payments figures. Very poor show really!

  21. In the 1940s, Keynes explained to a doubting parliament that the last year when export of manufactures balanced imports was 1822. The UK reliance on banking and finance goes back to the launch of the modern era. Acute concern about the balance of payments is rooted to the period of fixed exchanges and the Sterling area. With the world looking the way it does at the moment worries about the stability of the UK are unlikely to feature high on the list of concerns of currency dealers.

  22. GRAHAM.
    I know; it will go down, IMHO, of course, as a worse campaign than 1983- from a lefty perspective!

  23. Greek polls look exceptionally tight, but I suspect with Yes edging it. I don’t think it is an accident that decisions taken by Euro institutions effectively caused the Greek banks to close, and this event highlights the potential for chaotic uncertainty of voting No.

    I’ve maintained for a very long time now that Greece will have to leave the Euro, and while others proffered certainty that this wouldn’t happen, I feel circumstances are edging closer to my view.

    On different political sides, and for different reasons, there has been some decent reporting of the complex issue in parts of the UK media, with both wings recognising the fundamental weakness in the Euro and the mismanagement of the last few years by the Greek creditors.

    The IMF has been reported as admitting it has got this wrong. Greece has become the first major nation to default, but this is more a symptom of how the IMF failed to stand up to the Euro group. No major nation has previously defaulted on IMF loans, largely as the IMF makes sure the conditions are in place for recovery. This means austerity, privatizations, some tax rises, but critically nearly always severe debt write offs and currency devaluations.

    The IMF agreed to parts of the package, but failed to give Greece the benefits of the other elements, so determined were the Euro Group to protect creditors and their currency myth. This is why the bailouts have led to increasing indebtedness – precisely the opposite of what is needed.

    The current bailout terms, even assuming 4% economic growth and some pretty heroic assumptions on their primary surplus, would still leave Greece with a debt to GDP ration of an unsustainable 135% in 20 years time. This would be on top of all the austerity demanded, which would effectively be for nothing, as Greece would remain in perpetual crisis.

    Now, the IMF is at last banging Euro heads together, admitting this week that a third bailout is essential, that it would need around £50B, and the IMF would only be part of it if it included substantial debt relief and a 20 moratorium on any debt repayments as part of a 40 year schedule to erase the debts.

    Euro tax payers and their elected governments will have to face losses – this is the truth that was inevitable in 2010 as it is now, but today, because of their policies, the losses will be greater. Euro voters have been very badly served by their leaders, I feel.

    Sunday will be tumultuous for sure, and I hope the Greeks can survive, whichever way the vote goes, but ultimately, somehow, the mess that is the Euro needs to be quietly dealt with.

  24. @07052015 “Anyway the earlier general elections I recall were often dominated by the balance of payments .Noone mentions it now -a sign of complacency and the economic illiteracy of politicians and the media obsessed with share prices.”

    There was an interesting program on Analysis. I believe it also goes some way to explaining the UK productivity conundrum:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05xxc08

    “Making Invisibles Visible

    “The UK is the world’s second largest exporter of services – and has been for some time. The surplus generated by these “invisibles” – everything from banking to public relations to whizzy new phone apps – helps balance the country’s stubbornly high deficit in “visibles” or things.

    “Yet politicians talk continually about the need to rebalance the economy away from services. Linda Yueh finds this puzzling. As with other advanced economies, services comprise a very large proportion of our output – around three-quarters of the economy – and yet we spend a great deal of time worrying about a far smaller and long declining part of it: manufacturing.”

  25. @CHRISLANE1945

    “…I think the Lib Dems may not be in the correct place due to the very high numbers that UKPR seems to report, for reasons which some people on UKPR are researching…”

    Everyday the UK missile subs surface briefly to see if the United Kingdom still exists. If it does not, they will let fly with their dreadful cargo. Some say they listen for Radio 4 news.[1] Others, Lillibullero. I think they log on to here and see if Chris has questioned the Lib Dem estimate as too high. If he has not, then they know we are defeated and they will launch everthing they have…:-)

    [1] Allegedly true: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Today_(BBC_Radio_4)

  26. Good Morning All, from Tobias Ellwood’s seat; a rising star in the Tory sky,
    MARTYN: Thanks for your links.

  27. As ever I feel immensely better informed from having read the various posts above and particularly on his occasion Alec’s. People post more rarely than they did before the election but UKPR remains a delight to read.

    Psephologically speaking (or whatever the correct adverb is) and given our recent experience, it will be interesting to see whether a) the betting is a better guide to the Greek result than the polls and b) whether when we people actually get to vote they remember ‘never to let go of nurse for fear of getting something worse’ and thus are slightly more likely than they had consciously intended to vote for the status quo.

  28. Alec

    Agree completely. The Eurozone has mishandled the whole thing, by trying to solve an economic problem with a political solution.

    07052015

    Quite. Anything 60/40 or closer, as seems likely, either way will be inconclusive. Oddly, this is almost certainly the best outcome, as it will oblige both sides to give ground, to drop unhelpful preconditions, and think a bit ‘outside the box’.

    By Friday it will be all over.

  29. ALEC

    @” decisions taken by Euro institutions effectively caused the Greek banks to close,”

    Hmmm- a bit like saying the Legal Institutions effectively caused my ability to drive my car to cease.

    Your analysis omits to mention the massive Capital flight from Greek Banks, causing systemic l;oss of liquidity.

    The “decisions of the Euro Institutions” of course included the one you didn’t mention-huge liquidity support from the ECB ( $100 bn) against collateral of Greek Government Bonds-a major concession given the current credibility attaching to these assets.

    The ECB refused to increase this level of support until after the referendum. The Greek Central Bank ordered internalk liquidity controls.

  30. considering the tightness of the polls, a lot could depend on how KKE members interprete the CC’s stance: no, or spoiling the ballot paper. It’s actually quite unclear. That could turn the outcome.

  31. I suspect the ‘shy voter’ effect may play a part in these polls. I also suspect the shy voters will largely be ‘yes voters’, as it may be seen as giving into the ‘bullies’.

    With this in mind I believe there will be a yes majority, by probably a comfortable margin of more than 10%. Of course I could be completely wrong and the ‘shy voter’ may not translate into a Greek environment

  32. Don’t know enough about Greek politics to confidently predict the referendum result. Usually with referendums undecideds eventually vote with their heads and break for the status quo when the alternative is risky. However, in this case both options are risky – ‘Yes’ probably means yet another election, ‘no’ could mean anything.

  33. “It caused quite a bit of mayhem at a time when they only had 3 MPs – with 56 the potential is much greater!”

    ————–

    Well, this would not surprise, being as it only takes three Indy posters on here to cause a fair bit of mayhem. Imagine 56…??!!!

    But being as this is a Greek thread (and rather more convivial…)

  34. “I suspect the ‘shy voter’ effect may play a part in these polls.”

    ———–

    Are Greeks as shy as us? Are there any comparative studies? And then there’s the lazy voter thing…

  35. @Carfrew

    I have just started work as an intern on a project tracking the results and polling of referendums in every major (and some minor) democracies since 1990. I’ve not got onto researching the polling data yet but will be interesting to see if there is a consistent break to the status quo option.

  36. “Hmmm- a bit like saying the Legal Institutions effectively caused my ability to drive my car to cease.”

    ————

    I think it’s possible there might be some differences. Like, there probably wasn’t a referendum on your car-driving which legal institutions were in a position to influence…

  37. “Everyday the UK missile subs surface briefly to see if the United Kingdom still exists. If it does not, they will let fly with their dreadful cargo. Some say they listen for Radio 4 news.[1] ”

    ————-

    They prolly listen to Radio 4 for the cricket. Which incidentally sees the start of the Ashes this coming week…

  38. @Colin – I think we need to counter the Economists traditional right leaning take on this matter with a little pinch of salt.

    Much has been made of Syriza’s ‘dreadful mismanagement of the economy’, with righteous fingers wagging at how they turned a rapidly improving situation into a further bout of decline, but, as they say, we should never let the facts interfere with a good story.

    Up until Q4 2014, Greece GDP was growing, and the debt situation stabilising. This sounds good, but the facts show a debt to GDP ratio of 113% in 2008, shooting up to 180% in 2014. That must count as the least successful bailout ever, despite having two bites at the cherry. This was the situation that Syriza inherited, and speaks volumes for the failure of the Troika.

    Then Syriza was elected, and all of a sudden, Greece went from economic poster boy to left wing basket case. But hang on – the election was on January 25th 2015, with negotiations meaning Syriza didn’t formally take power until early February. The negative GDP figures came from Q1 2015, which was already well underway before Syriza took office.

    I recall many people of a certain political leaning suggesting that blaming the then UK government in late 2010, 2011 and even into 2012 and beyond for an economic slowdown was unfair, and that their predecessors were more to blame, but apparently in Greece, leftists governments should accept the blame for things that went wrong even before they were elected.

    The Economist calls a vote for the creditors terms a vote for ‘sanity’, but fails to address the central fact, that the ‘sane’ option was what caused Greece’s debt burden to grow relentlessly since 2008 already.

    Some of us, not highly trained economists or economic journalists, said in 2010 that the sane approach of the Troika would lead Greece to just this eventuality, and so it has come to pass. It was blindingly obvious that this was going to happen, but too many people, either friends of the Euro, or friends of the monied classes, didn’t want to accept the truth, and so need to manufacture their own creation myths to describe their preferred origin of the crisis.

  39. “The NYT tends to be reliable in these things.”

    ———–

    Yep, a rather more interesting account than the Economist article which takes selectivity to hilarious lengths…

  40. I rather liked this comment by the Irish Times Foreign Affairs Correspondent –

    Athens voter tells me he’s voting No as ref represents “an Augustinian dualistic worldview that doesn’t allow for synthesis of positions”

  41. @JACK SHELDON

    “@Carfrew
    I have just started work as an intern on a project tracking the results and polling of referendums in every major (and some minor) democracies since 1990. I’ve not got onto researching the polling data yet but will be interesting to see if there is a consistent break to the status quo option.”

    ————

    I think it would be of quite some interest on here where there has always been a European dimension. We haven’t had Virgilio’s updates for a while, which always seemed well-regarded…

  42. @Alec

    “…Up until Q4 2014, Greece GDP was growing, and the debt situation stabilising. This sounds good, but the facts show a debt to GDP ratio of 113% in 2008, shooting up to 180% in 2014. That must count as the least successful bailout ever, despite having two bites at the cherry. This was the situation that Syriza inherited, and speaks volumes for the failure of the Troika…”

    The situation that Syriza inherited was the state of the country at the moment of the election. At that point, the deficit had been turned into a small surplus and the debit had become stable (indeed, started to reduce slightly). In short, the centre-right government had got to grips with the situation and Greece was beginning to cope.

    “…Then Syriza was elected, and all of a sudden, Greece went from economic poster boy to left wing basket case…”

    I know you meant this sarcastically, but stripping out the emotive words (“poster boy”, “basket case”) this is exactly what happened.

    “…But hang on – the election was on January 25th 2015, with negotiations meaning Syriza didn’t formally take power until early February. The negative GDP figures came from Q1 2015, which was already well underway before Syriza took office…”

    If a pilot takes off and flies levelly, then a hijacker blows up the plane mid-flight, it would be silly to blame the pilot. If a center-right government governs well, then a left-wing government takes over and spends more than it earns, it is silly to blame the center-right government. Syriza took a recovery and trashed it.

    “…in Greece, leftists governments should accept the blame for things that went wrong even before they were elected…”

    Nobody is blaming Syriza for the events prior to its election. It’s the events since (overspending, 25% collapse in tax receipts, bad-faith negotiations, verbal abuse, bank closures, capital controls, reduction in tourism) that it’s being blamed for.

  43. (for “25% collapse in tax receipts”, I should have written “missed tax receipts target by 25%”: not the same thing, apols)

  44. Another aspect of the Economist report is the fact that they said the Greek GDP increase was largely down to exports, primarily shipping and tourism.

    Shipping has nothing to do with the Greek government, being almost exclusively linked to the state of global trade. Blaming Syriza for the global slowdown is again stretching the point.

    With tourism, again, this is largely a function of what is happening in other economies, but here also Syriza have been begging the Troika for the VAT concession for the Greek islands, precisely as they believe VAT at 23% will kill much of the tourist trade.

    The Economist article seems very sloppy indeed.

  45. @Oldnat

    Given that a two-question referendum is by definition a “Augustinian dualistic worldview”, if he genuinely believed that, then he shouldn’t have voted…:-)

  46. @martyn – “The situation that Syriza inherited was the state of the country at the moment of the election. At that point, the deficit had been turned into a small surplus and the debit had become stable (indeed, started to reduce slightly). In short, the centre-right government had got to grips with the situation and Greece was beginning to cope.”

    As with the Economist Article, that is very selective. For a start, they weren’t in surplus – only a primary surplus, so the debt pile was still rising.

    Secondly, it was temporary, and largely due to external factors like the improvement in global shipping and the devaluation of the Euro boosting non Eurozone tourism. As I mentioned above, the troika want to see measures that will damage much of Greek tourism, plus global shipping has been tightening for reasons beyond Greece’s control. The recovery was there, but was largely externally driven and unstable.

    Syrzia asked for a perfectly rational set of concessions that would aid a slower glide path to debt reduction and sustainability, making clear always that they didn’t want debt write offs but did want to avoid further excessive austerity that has led to the debt increasing, and they did want repayment linked to growth, to enable investment and reform time to take root.

    It’s laughable really. The Troika were promising Greece 35B Euros of infrastructure investment last week if they voted Yes – not bothering to tell them that this is existing EU budget already automatically allocated to Greece, that actually needs 15% funding from Greece to draw down, which they can’t do as the Troika are demanding cuts so that they can’t fund this.

    Laughable, as I say.

  47. @ Martyn

    Well, Syriza tried to make a compromise between the fire and the fire engine …

    The KKE tried to overcome the dichotomy (saying that it was a false dichotomy, which is probably true, but not actionable) but probably lost tons of supporters (I read some extremely painful resignation letters). On the other hand, in medium term (after the catastrophic outcome either way), they may gain.

  48. @Alec

    “…Secondly, it was temporary, and largely due to external factors like the improvement in global shipping and the devaluation of the Euro boosting non Eurozone tourism…”

    Telling me why the primary surplus existed doesn’t exculpate Syriza for trashing it.

    “…Syrzia asked for a perfectly rational set of concessions that would aid a slower glide path to debt reduction and sustainability…”

    Agreed. My point is that they did so badly. Catastrophically badly…

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