Straight after the Greek referendum was announced actual polling evidence seemed quite light, but there has now been the expected rush in polling. Polls from a handful of different companies are all painting a consistent picture of YES and NO being neck and neck. In fieldwork conducted on Monday and Tuesday there was still a small lead for NO, but across all the polls conducted in the last couple of days the position has been almost a dead heat.

The most recent polls are below:

Metron/Parapolitik (Thurs-Fri) – YES 46%, NO 47% (No ahead by 1%)
GPO/Mega TV (Wed-Fri) – YES 44.1%, NO 43.7% (Yes ahead by 0.4%)
Alco/Proto Thema (Wed-Fri) – YES 41.7%, NO 41.1% (Yes ahead by 0.6%)
Ipsos (Tues-Fri) – YES 44%, NO 43% (Yes ahead by 1%)
Uni of Macedonia/Bloomberg (Thurs) – YES 42.5%, NO 43% (No ahead by 0.5%)

In the week we also had the monthly ComRes/Daily Mail poll. Latest voting intention figures are CON 41%, LAB 29%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 5%. Tabs are here.

UPDATE: And the actual Greek result (with just over a third of the votes counted) looks like a solid victory for NO, absolutely miles away from what the Greek polls were showing. Ouch! I don’t know enough about Greek politics or Greek polling to hazard any guesses as to what they got wrong, but I imagine a country in economic turmoil is not the easiest to poll correctly in terms of contacting people, or to getting any firm demographic figures to weight or sample by – and that’s before you get to whether people feel able to answer the question honestly. As it happens most of the Greek polls were pretty good at their general election earlier this year, but clearly not this time.


439 Responses to “Latest Greek referendum polls”

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  1. @Barney

    “I was speaking at an energy conference dinner so have promised to chase up thorium tomorrow”

    ———

    Woohoo!!! Keep us posted.

    (Well, keep me posted at any rate, not sure it’s as popular as Scotland etc.)

  2. Belated thanks to the responses to my post last night about Greece, in which I essentially said that the real problem was Greece’s failure to implement real reform of its dysfunctional government, public sector, bureaucracy, taxation etc.

    I accept the point that the Greek people have suffered greatly and unfairly (or at least the poorest 98% have), but that is because recent Greek governments have done the easy hair shirt stuff – increasing tax rates – but not the hard work of implementing real reform and cutting wasteful expenditure (not least on defence).

    I read recently that in 2010 the Greek government agreed to €50bn in privatisation sales. So far they have raised €2.5bn. I’m normally no fan of ideologically-driven privatisation, but when the assets to be sold are chronically inefficient state enterprises in drastic need of effective management, then selling them as an alternative to tax increases is a double benefit. Apparently, in one of the few privatisations, half of Piraeus port was sold to the Chinese. That half is now booming, handling about 90% of the port’s trade, and bringing in much new business. The remaining state owned other half employs about twice as many workers, on much lower wages, to handle the remaining (and fast dwindling) trade. That’s as I recall the story. But hopefully the point is clear: the real need is to transform Greece into a well run modern economy. That should be what the troika means by reform, and if the Greeks were really to grasp that nettle, then by all means implement massive debt write-offs as a reward. And indeed add extra carrots in the form of transfer payments for infrastructure spending, health, education etc.

  3. It seems that George Osborne changed the Conservatives’ camping location for this Parliament.

    Rumour was that a site further right looked a likely choice, but it has changed to a more central location.

    Apparently there is another group of campers who wanted to set up here, but with all the blue tents in the field, there is little room for the red ones.

    This latter group may have to put up with being stuck the cramped corner, next to the smelly toilet block. However, one of their number – a Mr Corbyn – knows a field will plenty of space that lay further to the left.

  4. @ Barney Crockett

    While I have many friends in KKE, and I respect them (not only for surviving the decades), it is an absolute non-starter. The KKE wants to leave the EU. It is a non-starter for 90% of the populous. It may change in the near future, nut I doubt it. KKE’s economic policy recommendations are pretty solid, but it depends on their winning in an election (non starter).

    You can accuse Syriza with all kinds of things, but they DID follow what they promised (even if they stretched these promises to satisfy the troika). You can’t accuse them as you did. If you want to accuse them, then do it from the analysis of social structures.

    With the tax cheaters only the Monte Christo method would work, but that would be vetoed by the EU.

  5. @ CMJ

    Osborn may move his tent next year. There is no warning of deluge, so the pink tent can stay in the bags for the time being.

    It was a clever budget in the sense of media coverage (and some policies, to be fair), but on the train (!) between Manchester and Liverpool I heard a short lecture completely dismantling it from the perspective of the individual concerned). It was fascinating, and I wished a Labour politicians had heard it.

    Anyway. We will have a revised budget in April next year.

  6. Barney Crockett – “I have tried to find out if action against favoured elites has taken place rather than been threatened and have not found any.”

    That might be because in Greece it’s not as simple as simply standing up in Parliament and announcing the changes in the budget!

    There are 565 Greek millionaires, most of whom are ship owners. And get this: the special tax exemptions and privileges for ship owners are protected by the constitution! Even their private assets are exempt. In any case, most of their assets arn’t in Greece any more – the money left for London as soon as the crisis broke in 2010.

    Further they keep threatening to move their flags of convenience if they get taxed – and given they employ some 174,000 people, that’s not something any govt would jeopardise if unemployment was already 25%.

    The other powerful vested interest is the church which is also tax exempt with the exemption enshrined in the constitution.

    The church would probably be an easier target given that no job losses would be involved – but they need to organise a Constitutional Convention to deal with it. Don’t know how much a constitutional convention would cost and whether they can afford it, unless everyone agrees to sit on it unpaid.

    Given Syriza have only been in govt for 6 months and have had to spend most of that time on planes to and from Brussels, not sure when they could find time to organise changes to the Constitution as well, which would probably need a referendum to pass after the convention made it’s recommendations – and they probably wouldn’t be able to get away with having one next week either, people would want to have time to argue and campaign.

    This is why written constitutions are bad and our unwritten no Parliament binds it’s successors arrangement is superior!

  7. P.S. According to the NYT, Greeks are panic pre-paying their taxes, because they’re afraid bail-ins will confiscate their savings leaving them unable to pay on the due date:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/09/world/europe/greeks-spend-droves-afraid-losing-savings-bailout.html?_r=0

    Quote:

    “Panicked doesn’t begin to describe how people feel,” said Antonis Mouzakis, an Athens accountant. “I have a huge number of customers wanting to file their taxes right here, right now, to have the tax calculated and paid instantly before a possible haircut. Even if the tax is 40 to 50 thousand euros, they pay it off in one go.”

    End Quote

  8. Alec

    The small businesses I deal with have reacted:

    Those who have staff on minimum wage are shocked and outraged!
    Those who earn c£50,000 are not much worse off. The dividend tax and the effective £5,000 increase in their higher rate allowance net off.
    Those who have high earnings are not happy but do sort of understand they had a good deal.
    Higher rate landlords – have not spoken to many.

  9. Many Government Departments and Local Authorities use contractors who pay the minimum wage or just above.

    I doubt they will receive funding to cover so whilst the increase in very welcome it is also a further effective freeze in Government spending.

    The slow down in the pace of cuts was inevitable and my guess is will slow again and take a year longer as like 2010-15 the austerity rhetoric is tempered by realities.

  10. I must say Osborne surprised me – you have to hand it to him, he is a consummate politician, pasties aside.

    By taking some of the centre ground, he has rather trumped my previous assertion that this is where Labour should go. Liz K looks in a weird place somewhere to the right of the Tory leadership. Osborne has certainly torpedoed her chances, slim though they were.

    What price Corbyn now?

  11. @Jamie – “Those who earn c£50,000 are not much worse off. The dividend tax and the effective £5,000 increase in their higher rate allowance net off.”

    Maybe – I’m not sure, although I’ve calculated that if you are earning £50,000 from dividends, then you will be over £2,000 worse off under the new proposals.

    However, the biggest losers will be smaller company owners not currently over the 45% personal income threshold. If you take £25,000 in dividends now, you will face a increased tax bill of £1,500.

    This is going to hit those people setting up small businesses really quite hard. It may discincentivise some, and there is no distinction between stock market investors and people setting up and owning small businesses. I suspect this move will become very unpopular with a group that traditionally backs Tories.

    Had Labour done this, I suspect there would have been outrage in some quarters.

  12. Alec I don’t think you will be worse off on £50,000, yes you’ll pay the 7.5 % tax on £35,000 of income BUT you don’t pay higher rate tax on about £8,000 more income (no grossing up of dividends and £5,000 tax free dividends), which near enough cancel out. I think.

    It hits business owners who earn c£35,000 a year – which as you say is surprising. That said it is fair because it is not IMO fair that they simply avoid NI at present.

    Yes the big losers are high earning business owners….not an obvious target for a Conservative chancellor….

  13. @Jim Jam

    “Many Government Departments and Local Authorities use contractors who pay the minimum wage or just above. I doubt they will receive funding to cover so whilst the increase in very welcome it is also a further effective freeze in Government spending.”

    I had the same thought. But without that funding it amounts to a further hidden cut, certainly not just a freeze.

    @Catmanjeff

    The trick is to give the impression that you’re camping on the centre ground, when in practice you’re trekking off ever further from it.

  14. The change in tax treatment of dividends includes a new tax-free allowance of £5k.

    There has , of course, been much publicity of tax avoidance by self incorporation. The BBC has been reported to actually encourage it in their higher paid people.
    So perhaps losers from this change should blame the people who abused the old regime.

    I concur with Millie’s view of Osborne. And apart from tactics he is clever with the numbers. One of the biggest single numbers in the Red Book Tax change scorecard has received scant comment.
    In 2017/18 it brings in £4.5 bn , followed by £3.1 bn the following year-thats nearly £8bn-a very significant number. Its a one-off -from bringing CT payment for large corporations forward by four months. Very little effect thereafter-but a huge contributor to his numbers in a critical Budgetary period. Very clever.

    Actually , I think his political philosophy is evident in the balance he tries to strike in his budgets. I do think it tends to force him into lots of tinkering, but he is an increasingly interesting politician at the top of his game.

  15. Carfrew

    I have a science degree and in retirement my main hobbies have been science based (ornithology and botanical recording), my son is a Professor of Biochemistry. We have both reviewed the scientific evidence and both continue to have serious doubts about man’s importance in global warming. I am an economic libertarian my son is not. There are many like us although I accept we are very much a minority.

  16. LEFTY

    @” the people of Northern Europe have been spun a very particular tale that suited the politicians who were telling it”

    I think you’re in danger of trying to explain unwelcome political outcomes by calling the voters stupid.

    There are some who would use the same approach for Greece’s recent GE outcome.

    My assumption would be that the voters of the former Soviet colonies need little instruction on the effects of ant-capitalist , State centred, command economies. Perhaps this informs their attitude to Tsipras’s demands .

    I liked his statement to the EP-“we do not want a new bailout just to pay off the old one “. That spells it out for the Northerners :-)

  17. OLDNAT
    Allan Christie
    “Living Wage” at £7.20 ph was last accurate in 2011 – and that included assumption of tax credits at current levels.
    Dumping subsidies for employers to pay low wages at the taxpayers expense would have been a good thing – but this isn’t it.
    __________

    Yes the devil is in the detail.

  18. Alec,

    “Meant to say – budget looks really bad for students.”

    Ah, but you forget that students are all universally wealthy and middle class, and spend all their money on legal highs and drinking.

    I mean, you could find the odd one who’s staying at uni over summer to get started on a dissertation* or who’s posting this in the library where he’s been since 7:30, but that would be madness.

    *In fairness that’s partially because my mum’s just moved to Aberdeenshire.

  19. Laszlo
    “Monte Christo method”
    I am sure that the comrades in the KKE would have no problem with that!

  20. Looks like Osborne has cut job growth to nil at a stroke – clever man

  21. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    “I have a science degree…”

    ———-

    I know, you did Chemistry!!

    My point was about the oddity that many libertarians have issues with MMGW, not just your good self, which invites consideration as to why that might be.

    From a scientific perspective, while absolute proof to make it a no brainer may be lacking, there are two important things we do know: that CO2 levels are rising, and that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.

    Given the potential dangers, one therefore has cause to be concerned. Even if the rising levels were not man-made, there would be cause for concern, and one might wish to act to alleviate.

    It’s hard to be sure of the precise outcomes given the complexity of the feedback and feed forward effects. But a significant degree of concern about the matter is surely warranted. Especially since fossil fuels are not infinite, and bring other hassles, energy security etc.

    ‘Course, as you know, Thorium would render a fair amount of this moot…

  22. CARFREW & THE OTHER HOWARD

    It’s an interesting debate on the causes of climate change, is it natural or man made? My own thought on it is a combination of both and man is merely speeding up the process of the planet gradually getting warmer.

    However their is no dispute when it comes to pollution in our cities and the destruction of vasts amounts of rain forests which help mitigate harmful greenhouse gasses.

    Some experts say we are destroying the planet and others say we are destroying our own survival and the planet will recover eventually long after we humans have signed our own extinction warrant.

    I agree with the latter!!

  23. #there

  24. Graham.

    Interesting that the trajectory of deficit reduction over 10 years or from 10-19/20 will be very close to what Darling proposed for 10/15 extrapolated.

  25. Graham….but do you think he has read the ukpollingreport comments policy?

  26. Mr N

    I realised the duplicitous nature of TV documentaries in the mid 60s, when BBC Scotland filmed a documentary on “student life”.

    They showed the almost empty Library and the packed Union Beer Bar – both filmed at 9 o’clock. I was in both shots, as the Library had been filmed at 9 in the morning, and the Beer Bar at 9 at night.

    Showing images of what they wanted to have been the case, and pandering to the existing prejudices of the viewer is often what TV does best.

  27. Graham

    Given the juggernaut that could well be heading to the UK economy with the global economic situation, I suspect this budget will be history fairly soon.

    On the matter of polling, it is perhaps food for thought for the “Sun wot won it” of public opinion that Oxi may well have won because the Greek equivalents of The Sun were for Nai.

  28. JAMIE
    Graham….but do you think he has read the ukpollingreport comments policy?
    _______

    Probably not and just in case Graham’s post gets the ole chop….I agree with Graham.

  29. Graham

    You forgot the IMO in your very partisan post.

    I suspect hat the Sunday YouGov will have questions on budget measures and we will see how the voters approve or otherwise. I expect we will find quite a lot of support for many of the budget measures. Where I can agree with you is that I do think it was a very political budget, positioning the Tory party firmly in the center ground.

    Not what i wanted, I would have liked deeper cuts happening sooner to clear the deficit as in his original budget.

  30. Hello everyone, I’ve re-emerged from my politics break and I have to say I recommend it, not thinking about politics for a couple of months has really lowered my stress levels.

    Alas its budget time so I thought I’d remerge. Speaking as a student naturally the most concerning part of the budget for me personally was the changes to maintenance grants. Detail on this seems quite sketchy so I was wondering if anyone knows when this applies. It says 2016/17 I assume that’s the academic year spanning late 2016 and the bulk of 2017?
    Also does this only apply to new students (like the tuition fee rise several years back) or does it apply to all regardless of what year of study they are in?
    Thanks for the help :)

  31. RIVERS10

    The reports I have read say new students.

    Like the Child Tax Credit limitation, which doesn’t apply to existing claimants.

  32. GRAHAM

    Your posts continue to be very partisan which is actually against the rules of the site as i’m sure you know.

    As I said I look forward with interest to see what the voters think in Sundays YouGov.

  33. Good evening all and its quite cold in East Ren.

    The living wage is unraveling even before the ink has dried. Small business will lay off staff when it is introduced and thousands of workers will actually be worse off. That’s what the experts are now saying.

    I’m all for the living wage and it’s long over due but for every person who gains, one will probably be laid off. The removal of working tax credit should be phased out over a longer period to give the industry time to adjust to the changes.

    The company I work is based in Glasgow and employs 160 people with another office down in Leatherhead employing a further 30.
    The living wage wont effect any of our staff because we are all salaried and very rarely do over our contracted hours which means dividing my salary by my contracted hours = substantially more than the living wage.

    However!! I had a very interesting discussion with one of the cleaners (supervisor) who we employ as outside contractors to keep our offices nice and gleaming and he says when the new living wage comes in some of his staff will be better off then him.

    He is on a salary and does not get paid for overtime which in his contract says.. “work hours that are required”. So much emphasis is put on the paid per hour living wage yet ignores people who are on low salaried pay structures and don’t get over time.

    It would had been better regardless if you are paid per hour or on a salary if the Tories had come out and said whatever hours you work per week must meet or succeed the living wage.

    Opportunity missed!!

  34. THE OTHER HOWARD

    “As I said I look forward with interest to see what the voters think in Sundays YouGov”
    _____

    The irony is the polls will probably show a boost in the Tory VI despite many low wage earners being worse off. Most people in the UK are probably getting better off each year but the wealth gap is fracturing into many different theaters.

    The poor plunging into the abyss. Low earners taking a dip in earnings. Working class living a existence, middle class marginally getting better off and the rest rejoicing.

  35. Allan Christie

    We obviously totally disagree, and if I see a lot of support from voters in Sundays YouGov I will not consider it in the least ironic.

    GO and IDS are trying to move the mass of the population away from welfare dependancy to a position where they can better themselves through their own efforts. I totally support this and like IDS I regard it as a moral crusade.

  36. THE OTHER HOWARD

    I think we all want to see people support themselves but unfortunately we do need people on low wages so the rest of us can depend on services we take for granted.

    Unfortunately they don’t appear to be benefiting from Ozzy’s little red briefcase.

  37. Somerjohn

    Greece’s Govt expenditure has come down by 25-30% in money terms over the past 5 years. They have cut far harder than anyone else in the EU

    See the figures on P38 here.
    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14151.pdf

    And THEN take into account that these figures are Govt expenditure as a percentage of GDP. And Greece’s GDP has dropped by over 20% since 2009!

    Greece has made quite breathtaking cutbacks. That is a story you never hear.

  38. Colin

    “New students”

    Those’ll be “our children one whose shoulders it would be immoral to place the burden of the older generation’s debt” then, eh?

  39. LEFTY

    Only just seen your post.

    Point taken-I didn’t understand this one.

    Of course, poorer graduates will never pay it-and most graduates will not pay it all.

    But as you say-its more debt.

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