Polling news round up

Labour leadership

Regular polling remains sparse given the ongoing inquiry and that we’re in that odd sort of political interregnum with Labour yet to elect their new leaders, but there have been a couple of polls on the Labour contest and the EU. A new ORB poll on the Labour leadership earlier in the week showed Andy Burnham was seen as the candidate most likely to help Labour’s chances at the next election (36%), followed by Liz Kendall on 25%. Full tabs are here.

I would be extremely cautious of polling about the Labour leadership election. Essentially there are two real questions about the Labour leadership – who is going to win, and who would be best at winning votes for Labour. For the first one, we need a poll of Labour party members, and we don’t have a recent one (there is some data from a YouGov poll of party members for Tim Bale & Paul Webb, but that was done straight after the election before the candidates were clear). For the second, I suspect any data is fatally flawed by the public’s low awareness of the candidates – right now, polls about the Labour leadership are little more than name recognition contests. Looking at the tables for the ORB poll it looks to me as if the main reason the prospective leaders scored so highly is that the question didn’t offer a don’t know option, if it had, I bet the don’t knows would have had a runaway victory.

Worth looking at as a corrective is this ICM poll on the Labour leadership that asked people to identify photos of Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper, Liz Kendall and Jeremy Corbyn. 23% were able to identify Burnham, 17% Cooper, 10% Kendall and 9% Corbyn. Essentially, if 90% of the respondents to a poll can’t even recognise a photo of Liz Kendall or Jeremy Corbyn, how good a judge are they going to be on what sort of Labour leader they’d be? “I’m a particular fan of the one I’ve never heard of and know nothing at all about” said no one, ever.

Sky poll on the EU

SkyNews have released a poll they have carried out themselves amongst a panel of BSkyB subscribers. The poll itself shows nothing particularly new (people think the EU is good for the British economy by 39% to 31%, etc, etc), but the concept itself is interesting – it’s a proper effort to get a representative sample from their subscriber database, weighted by age, gender, past vote, Experian segment (as an alternative to class), ethnicity, tenure and so on. It is, however, unavoidably only made up of Sky subscribers, which will bring with it its own biases. The question is to what extent those biases can be cancelled by their weighting and sampling. We shall see. The tables for this first poll are here.

Parliamentary debates

Last week there were two Parliamentary debates on regulating opinion polls. The first, last Thursday, was prompted by Lord Lipsey and concerned whether polling companies needed regulating to prevent them asking leading and biased questions – though it was largely made up of the specifics of one single poll on mitochondrial donation. The other was the second reading of George Foulkes private members bill regulating opinion polls, which includes a good response from Andrew Cooper of Populus. Lord Bridges for the government stated they had no plans to regulate polls. Lord Foulkes’s bill was nodded through to the committee stage, so will trundle on for a little longer.

Herding pollsters

Finally there’s a great piece by Matt Singh on pollster herding here. Matt mentions some of the possible reasons for herding, but more importantly actually does the sums on whether there was any herding… and finds there wasn’t. The spread between different pollsters in the final polls was very much in line with what you’d expect to find.

230 Responses to “Polling news round up”

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  1. Yanis Varoufakis (Finance Minister)

    Democracy deserved a boost in euro-related matters. We just delivered it. Let the people decide. (Funny how radical this concept sounds!)

  2. Good news is the Greek tool manufacturing sector will be booming as the government grabs spanners to throw in the EU’s works.

    I’ll see myself out.

  3. Paul Mason’s initial reaction to the Greferendum scenario.


  4. “Paul Mason’s initial reaction to the Greferendum scenario.”


    Quite a handy and concise read for those of us not completely up to speed on it all.

    Also, apparently Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek finance minister, used to teach game theory in academia, which he may be calling on in negotiations, so here’s a game theory perspective…

    “Can game theory explain the Greek debt crisis?”


  5. What’s the capital of Greece?

    About five euros at the moment…

  6. Even tho Lamb is backed by the Grandees he is 13/2 to beat Farron.In a two horse race he is a massive outsider.

  7. I rate Lamb very highly, but in their present predicament, they surely have to go for the more charismatic option.

    And a leader who can outflank Labour to the left, rather than remain in the squeezed middle.

    If you are four down with five to play, you don’t take an iron off the tee, and play safe.

  8. @” Let the people decide.”

    A fine principle -provided it applies to all people.

    What question should be put to the voter-, taxpayer stakeholders in Greek Sovereign Debt?

    Possibly :-

    “Do you agree to give Greece more Bailout money , and allow them not to repay it?”

  9. @Colin

    When lenders lend there is a risk it won’t get paid back.

    Businesses and individuals in difficulty with drbts can declare bankruptcy.

    Greece should be afforded this option. If lenders have made a bad call when giving loans, it their problem. They wanted the profit from their lending, but don’t accept the risks.

    I suggest the lenders grow a pair.

  10. cmj
    There is nothing stopping Greece defaulting and it looks as if that is what they are going to do. But it is a political landmark. The IMF in particular can’t be phlegmatic that what they must regard as a high wage country walking away from debts much greater than any low wage country has ever done. Why should poor countries sacrifice to pay back when much richer countries are allowed not to?
    And no German politician can accept the Greek position without realising he is toast at the next election. The same will apply in most EZ countries but financially it is Germany which counts.

  11. Re: Greece

    The German politicians have only themselves to blame: they ought to have blocked Greece’s entry to the euro at the start.

    But of course the ‘Greece must be in’ decision was a political one. You can’t turn round fifteen years later and say “forget the politics, this is an economic question”.

    As for those who are against austerity I have only this to say: I you want to be in charge of your own fate, stop trying to borrow money of others.

    In other words: A plague on all your houses!

    P.S. The point on austerity might equally apply to Scotland, of course. But Scotland is not Greece, nor would it ever be anything like Greece. For a start, the weather means you can’t build houses in Scotland and ‘forget’ to put a roof on in order not to pay property tax!

  12. @Barney

    If the international reign of organisations like the IMF is threatened, then some would argue it’s a good thing.

    The real issue with Greece is the terrible structure of the Euro and monetary union. For too long the political capital put into a flawed idea (monetary and eventually fiscal union) has meant bad decisions have been made. Much of this has allowed a political fantasy and dream blind people from reality.

    They hole the EU project finds itself in is so deep, they really need to stop digging.

  13. ‘If’, not ‘I’

    Oh, and for the LDs, that chap from Lancashire/Westmoreland: he’s the one they need to elect. Forget his name, though… Fallen? Fallan?

    As for Labour: Corbyn would be ideal if they want to win anything in Scotland. The others have nothing to say to folk north of the border. Does Labour want to be for ever more only Labour in England (and Wales, perhaps)?

  14. JOHN B

    As you will see from my post above many would be delighted if Corbyn won the Labour leadership,myself included. He might appeal to those north of the border but would more or less guarantee continuing Tory government in the South

  15. Polls are only as reliable as the media portrayal – or dare I say bias – of the topic.

    When it comes to the vote, I would say the public are increasingly savvy when it comes to recognising media prejudice and bias, and will vote – more than perhaps ever before – towards their instinct…and not towards the way certain elements of the media would attempt to push or influence them.

    Perhaps the General Election was a turning point; perhaps we will see that Polls relating to the Labour Leadership contest will be equally inaccurate.

    I genuinely think we are reaching the stage where the public will no longer tolerate any form of media bias which possibly leads to the “shy” voter syndrome, where the media portrays sentiment inaccurately, to the point where people are reluctant to reveal their true inclinations.

    Time for the media to focus on impartiality if they really want to see more accurate reflections of public political sentiment.

    What better opportunity than the upcoming EU Referendum to put this into practice.

    If there is one thing I would make illegal from tomorrow, it would surely be the widespread massaging of carefully selected statistics which usually omit the more uncomfortable element that will clearly lend greater support to the opposing argument!! In short, EVERY STATISTIC should be made available in a democratic society.

    Start now with the EU Referendum and win back the trust of the British Voter…..

  16. CMJ

    @”Greece should be afforded this option. ”

    Fine-and lenders ( I am sure you would agree) should be afforded the option of not lending the next Bailout Tranche to Greece.

    Or are you advocating completion of the current bailout at the same time as previous debt is declared revoked?

  17. This Greek referendum is really about Grexit though it’s not being framed that way. And the only reason Tsipras is having it is because he has no mandate for Grexit and wants one.

    It will work as follows: If Greeks vote No to the terms of the bailout package, Tsipras says to the Troika, I can’t legally accept your terms (’cause of referendum result) and hence the choice is a) leave the euro or b) Troika change the terms. If Troika don’t change the terms, then Greece exits.

    If the Greeks vote Yes, Tsipras accepts and signs the bailout even though it’s not what he wants, because “that’s the will of the Greek people”.

    The million dollar question is will the Troika change the terms if the Greeks vote No. Portugal appears to be tanking at the moment – so any change in terms to the Greeks will have to be offered to the Portuguese. On the other hand, if the Greeks leave the euro, the Portuguese may get the idea that leaving is the solution for them too. And you get a domino effect – the biggie being Italy leaving.

    I personally think Greece will do well outside the euro. I think most Brits watching yesterday’s events will prefer to holiday in Greece than anywhere else, especially if it’s cheap to do so because they have their own currency. Greece should revive and may even earn enough to be able to pay their debts somewhere down the line in the future.

    From the UK’s point of view – the EU would be so much easier to deal with if it wasn’t on this juggernaut towards a single federal state. So if the euro breaks up, that effectively ends “ever closer union” once and for all. So I’m hoping the Greeks vote “No”.

  18. @Candy

    I agree with your analysis up till the final two lines. For ‘once and for all’ I would say ‘for the time being’. The memories of war are still strong and the EU has fulfilled its primary mandate, which is to avoid war between the European countries by making their common lot so intertwined that no-one can afford to go it alone. If that common lot starts to disentwine then before you know it we’ll have grandstanding and the danger of war. Why people on the right of the Tory party can’t see this is beyond me, for most of them seem to be quite intelligent types. They just seem to have the extraordinary blind spot.

    On a slightly different note, what right wingers on this side of the channel also fail to recognise, it seems to me, is that a ‘common market’ must include not only trade and goods but people. It is the free movement of people which supplies the market need for workers and also makes sure that silly racial stereotypes can be countered through different people meeting each other on a day by day basis.

    As I wrote a couple of days ago, I also fail to understand why we are refusing to allow in enterprising, go-getting, determined people who have managed to cross deserts and seas with the minimum of resources in order to try and enter the UK. These are precisely the sort of people our economy needs…… are they not?

  19. ‘this’ not ‘the’ at end of first paragraph

  20. @John B

    I don’t think Labour will go for Corbyn. In any case, the new devolved tax powers make it very difficult for Lab because they believe in budgets and cross-subsidies across the entire UK, devolved tax doesn’t fit in with their beliefs. So how on earth are they to find a message that conforms with those beliefs that the devolution-crazy Scots will listen to?

    The environment in Scotland will change now that tax has devolved, and only the Tories fully understand this.

    For example, stamp duty was devolved as of April 2015. The SNP came up with a scheme of charging 10% for the portion of the price between £250k and £1 million. But because they are rookies at this tax raising stuff, instead of announcing it on March 31st, they announced it in October, giving everyone 6 months notice.

    With predictable results. Everyone raced to bring their transactions forward with a record 34 estates worth £1 million changing hands in March. Now the deadline has passed, all activity has halted in that tax bracket. Swinney is now looking at a tax shortfall due to all of this. I understand he’s trying to bludge a “compensation payment” from the Treasury, no idea why he thinks the rest of us should make up the shortfall. It was his mistake so the people who should take the hit are the Scots who voted for Swinney, in the form of cuts.

    We’ll see this repeated over and over with other taxes devolved. The revenues coming in will be lower than expected due to a) inexperience in tax raising among the SNP and b) teh paucity of rich people in Scotland, which means it all needs to be paid by the ordinary joe.

    Once it is clear there is no cross-subsidy from the English any longer, the Tories are back in play to tempt those in the middle classes who do not want their taxes to rise. I suppose Labour could come back with “see we told you devolution meant cuts” and offer to repeal the whole thing, but am not sure that Scots are willing to listen to that message yet.

    So for the moment, it’s SNP vs Conservative, and the Conservatives have the Scots basic self-interest on their side. I think we’re due to see a Tory revival in Scotland, the pendulum always swings.

  21. @candy

    Do you have comparative figures regarding the proportions of basic rate and higher rate taxpayers in the four nation of the UK?

  22. @Hireton

    I saw one report that only 19,000 people in Scotland earn over £150k.

    And it will be comparatively easy for them to avoid any tax hike the SNP proposes. They just move to some of the nicer suburbs of Newcastle (and they have some!) and commute. It will be funny if all the devolution results in towns in Northern England getting an influx of monied people!

  23. @Colin

    I think you are correct.

    It’s obvious Greece can’t pay it’s debts, not now not ever.

    Therefore, in this situation the lender can lean on the debtor, to try to reduce their losses. This has been the tactic so far. However, they only squeeze so much, as the point soon comes when the pain of avoiding bankruptcy (an endless squeeze) is worse than the short sharp shock of bankruptcy itself.

    This is where Greece is today. If they want keep being squeezed ad infinitum by creditors, they need to keep making deals, giving ground and so on.

    The only way to step out of viscous cycle is go bankrupt, leave the EU and start again. Of course, lenders would not be expected to keep loaning money Greece. They would need to accept a massive right down. However, that is the game lenders are in – if they can’t accept risk, they shouldn’t lend.

    The only thing that has prevented this happening has been the extraordinary attempt to keep alive the EU monetary union dream (to be followed by fiscal union), by committing endless political capital, Accepting Greece’s failure would be damaging to this project, and potentially cause contagion to spread. There would be a massive loss of face.

  24. @candy

    Ah, I thought you might have been referring to the HMRC data which shows the the proportions of basic and higher rate taxpayers in different parts of the UK. But I am sure one report is quite sufficient on which to base your sweeping generalisation.

  25. @Hireton

    How typical of an SNP supporter to dismiss any info they didn’t like as a “sweeping generalisation”.

    Have a look at the following article from a university blog:


    And here’s a quote:

    In Scotland in 2010 (the latest year for which we have detailed HMRC statistics), only around 14,500 individuals paid income tax at the additional rate. These individuals represent just 0.5% of all Scottish income taxpayers (and less than 0.3% of Scotland’s population).

    So it’s actually less than I remembered.

    Factor in the loss of high-paying jobs in the oil sector and you have a problem…

    In order to pay for their plans without an English subsidy, the SNP will have to raise taxes on the Scottish middle classes. Who will rediscover Conservatism. Scotland is not the lefty place people like to think when it comes to tax.

    Also, as anyone who has been in govt will tell you, the spending decisions are easy, it’s the tax raising to pay for them that’s the tough bit. The devolved parliament in Scotland has never had to face this – so it should be an education!

  26. CMJ

    Just watched the twp Press Conferences- Dijsselbloem & Varoufakis.

    Extraordinary stuff & strong language.

    I liked Varoufakis’s latest play :-
    We asked them to keep the deal live for a couple of weeks-so we can hold a referendum, because there is a significant possibility that Greeks will ignore our advice & vote Yes.

    You couldn’t make this up. Perhaps this is what they mean by “Game Theory”.

    My question is-has Tsipras got a promise from Putin, or is he really playing Poker?

  27. @ Colin

    Russia cannot afford Greece (unless oil prices go up), although they put some money in Cyprus, but China can …

    I think the initial Greek strategy was that the EU would bend (thus a high chance for a Greek favourite outcome), based on the huge inherent risk of Greece exiting.

    It became very clear soon that the EU followed a strategy that worked earlier, putting pressure on the government (and if necessary replace the government), thus unbending. Thus EU attributing high chances for Greece giving in and only posing

    Middle game strategy: Greece offers compromises (pretty big ones) assuming high chance for a face saving, maintenance agreement.

    The EU perceives this as their strategy working, and using the Japanese method when setting the target: you set the target and we will take it apart until you agree with what we had already. So still high chances for Greece giving in.

    Early end game: Greece is fully aware of the strategy, so changes its own to leaking proposals everywhere, meeting the target figures, making perfectly sensible policy proposals while knowing that these would never be accepted (partly for ideological reasons, partly because the EU would accept only its own implicit proposal).

    We actually have a different game here now: it is about forcing the EU to put forward proposals. Greece won this. We can call this prerequisite strategy for the Greek government to higher the stakes, and also to keep the coalition together.

    The EU makes two mistakes: invites the opposition parties (preparations for regime change), and actually puts forward a proposal (when a country applies for an IMF programme, although the conditions are written by the iMF mission, in formal sense they are the proposals of the country.) Tsipras also made a smart move by saying that if the referendum is yes, they will implement it (i.e. the government won’t resign just because they lose the referendum, which was probably the first hope of the EU).

    The game theory falls apart at this point as there are no rules for the rest: there is no mechanism for leaving the EU, the EU and the IMF probably breached their own rule books, and Greece is not in the position to pay, and their only punishment is being excluded from the debt market (but even then, Argentina could borrow).

    The EU strategy was flawed because they thought they had the same situation as earlier, and also because domestic political constraints tied their hands. The German strategy might have been to get rid of Greece in the beginning, but then it remains flawed, because it’s unclear how they can do it, and also because of the minor issue of the debt that won’t be repaid.

    The Greek strategy was flawed, because they forced the dominant players in the EU to a position from where they could not step back.

    As to the IMF, their actions wiped out the advancement they have made since the mid-1990s (proposing that increasing VAT on milk and bread is better than taxing slot machines).

  28. According to this a “late” loan repayment to IMF is not the problem.

    But a failure to pay the ECB 3.5 billion-euro ($3.9 billion) bond on 20th July is.

    ECB is keeping Greek banking system liquid with 88 billion euros ($99.88 billion) of ELA support.

  29. Re Greece:

    It’s a constant refrain here that the euro project is fatally flawed and bound to fail. I don’t see it. As far as I’m aware, there isn’t a single one of the 19 eurozone countries with polling evidence that a majority would like to return to the former national currency.

    That’s not surprising, because we too easily forget the benefits of a common currency: no exchange risks for businesses; easy and cheap payments for businesses and individual travellers; low interest rates; cost savings to governments not having to manage a currency.

    People I talk to in in countries like Italy and Spain love having a stable currency that isn’t forever depreciating; the lira, peseta and drachma were always perceived as slightly lightweight, dodgy currencies.

    As long as a country joins the euro at an appropriate exchange rate, then keeps inflation at or below the eurozone average, it will not have competitiveness problems. Yes, that imposes a certain discipline on governments, but that’s surely no bad thing.

  30. Pavlos Vasilopoulos tweet

    57% of Greeks in favor of a deal with creditors / 29% against (Alco Poll, June 24-26)

  31. OldNat,

    Now that’s an unexpected turn.

  32. @candy

    Actually there are more recent and comprehensive data sets on income tax which are easily accessed if you want to be informed on income distributions in the UK and Scotland in particular. As you will Scotland’s tax base is actually quite healthy.

    Your statement regarding oil jobs is poorly informed. The great majority of job losses are for self employed contractors who generally work through limited companies. If there is a tax hit it will be for UK corporation tax assuming of course that these people ( who in any case will not normally be additional rate taxpayers) do not find other employment.

    You are also out of date on LBTT and uninformed it seems about the problems caused by Osborne and his reform of UK Stamp Duty in December 2014 which is the reason for the discussions about a compensation payment.

    Finally tax is not being devolved. Some aspects of income tax are and potentially APD and Aggregates Levy. All other taxes will still be reserved.

  33. @ OldNat

    It is not yet on Alcopoll’s website, only the early June one. Then 47% considered that the govenrment’s negotiation tactic/strategy was wrong.

  34. OK it’s in Proto Thema.

    Kapa Polling gives 10% less to the yes, and 6 more to the no.

  35. @Candy – yours of 5.16

    I think the situation is slightly more complex. The middle classes in Scotland have never forgotten ‘conservatism’ – it’s the Conservative Party that forgot Scotland, particularly in the 1980s and 90s. Many middle class people now vote SNP in order to get rid of an old and rather decrepit Labour Party.

    But Scots are also proud, even to the point of willing to be poorer rather than be told by others that they are subsidy junkies. Labour, of course, is happy for Scotland to continue as a dependent bloodsucker.

    What I find very odd is the Conservative Party approach which seems to be that the Scots are living off England (not true, of course, for it is London, not England as a whole, which subsidises Scotland, as London also subsidises Birmingham and Manchester) and ought to continue in that way; I would have thought that Conservatives would applaud anyone wanting to stand on their own two feet.

    The fact that the Conservatives always try to avoid the Scots doing this (standing on their own two feet) leads some to suspect that Scotland is paying more into the pot than Whitehall is letting on. Otherwise why keep Scotland in the Union?

    I think the Conservativs’ problem in Scotland is not the economic argument – many Scots believe that we need to be responsible for our own actions, which is old Presbyterian social doctrine – but the constitutional question. A Conservative Party in an independent Scotland would stand a good chance of being in government, at least some of the time.

  36. ‘Dependent bloodsucker’ probably ought to have been in inverted commas.

  37. Mr N

    “Now that’s an unexpected turn.”

    Probably not for the Greek Governments though. The UK isn’t the only government that commissions private polling at the taxpayers expense to determine their referendum strategy! :-)

  38. So-Tsipras & Varoufakis are going over the heads of their Left Wing , to get an approval direct from from the public-without having to call an election & losing it.


  39. Candy
    Thats you told. On the other hand, the Scottish Parliament produced a paper last year entitled “The Scottish rate of income tax additional rate tax payers” that would seem to bear out what you say about numbers of those eligible and also perhaps the link to oil. Of course I may not be fully up to date.

  40. @Colin

    That sounds very clever to me ;-)

  41. CMJ

    Not just politically clever, but also the strategy best able to avoid serious civil disorder, I’d have thought.

  42. Somerjohn

    “It’s a constant refrain here that the euro project is fatally flawed and bound to fail. I don’t see it. As far as I’m aware, there isn’t a single one of the 19 eurozone countries with polling evidence that a majority would like to return to the former national currency.”

    It’s not fatally flawed because people have been persuaded by the political and media class that it’s a good idea it’s fatally flawed because it is.

    “People I talk to in in countries like Italy and Spain love having a stable currency that isn’t forever depreciating; the lira, peseta and drachma were always perceived as slightly lightweight, dodgy currencies.”

    That’s why it’s fatally flawed. The reasons the old currencies were always depreciating are still there but they’re no longer capable of depreciating.

  43. “So-Tsipras & Varoufakis are going over the heads of their Left Wing , to get an approval direct from from the public-without having to call an election & losing it.”

    That would be my guess. They need to leave and default but the Greek public have been told for decades that the sky would fall on their heads if they left so Tsipras etc are stuck – all they can do is pass the buck to the public to keep their heads.

  44. Mr Jones
    Wish I had thought to put it that way.

  45. @COLIN

    “So-Tsipras & Varoufakis are going over the heads of their Left Wing , to get an approval direct from from the public-without having to call an election & losing it.

    Yes, very strange isn’t it! But it might have one thinking that if the Tories also wanted to deal with a thorny EU issue, without wanting to risk calling an election on the issue and losing it, they might also offer a referendum instead…

  46. “For a start, the weather means you can’t build houses in Scotland and ‘forget’ to put a roof on…”


    Yes, very good: Scotland is to be excused the austerity prescribed for others on account of the weather…

  47. @Carfrew

    That’s not what I meant — the exact opposite, in fact. The Scots don’t want austerity – who does? – and are willing to pay a fair price for what Government does. But economics is not only about balancing the books in the short term; it’s also about investment for the future and its about the realisation that more taxes are paid by those who are in work than by those who are unemployed; and that child care is a service which pays for itself in terms of a nation’s budget (the same can be said of education and the health service). To cut back on things which aid economic growth is the very opposite of what austerity is supposed to achieve. In other words, austerity is fine as long as it is aimed at the things that can be sacrificed without destroying the economy long term.

  48. @Mr. Jones 11.38

    “The reasons the old currencies were always depreciating are still there but they’re no longer capable of depreciating.”

    That’s a point I made on this site several months ago. Today’s problem with Greece (and Portugal and Italy, perhaps) is a political one which has been building up ever since the start of the Euro, and for La Garde, and for Schäuble et al, to turn around now and put the foot down and say “enough!” is equivalent to realising that the fire which you refused to put out when it started – because it’ll die down quickly, surely – is now consuming the entire building.

    To bring hard line economic forces to bear now is ridiculous and is just trying to pass the blame to the Greeks when in reality the blame lies squarely with those north European politicians who went along with the false prospectus at the start. So let the German tax payers pay up! They voted for the politicians who produced the mess!!

  49. Andy Burnham says if he will appoint a woman first minister to shadow osborne so that will be rachel reeves then.Safe for the boys to vote for Tom for deputy .

    I will vote for Flinty but it looks as Creasy is leading the women( but behind Watson).

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