Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor is out, their first since the election. Topline figures are CON 39%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%, GRN 6%. As with other recent voting intention polls, the figures themselves are perhaps less interesting than the methodology changes. In the case of Ipsos MORI, they’ve made an adjustment to their turnout filter. In the past they used to take only those respondents who said they were 10/10 certain to vote, the tightest of all the companies’ approaches. Their new approach is a little more complex, filtering people based on how likely they say they are to vote at an election and how regularly they say they usually vote – now they include only people who say their likelihood to vote is 9/10 or 10/10 AND who say they usually or always vote or “it depends”. People who say they rarely, never or sometimes vote are excluded.

The impact of this doesn’t appear to be massive. We can tell from the tables that the old method would have produced similar results of CON 39%, LAB 29%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%, GRN 6%. In their comments on their topline results MORI are very explicit that this is just an interim measure, and that they anticipate making further changes in the future as their internal inquiry and the BPC inquiry continue.

Looking at the other questions in the survey, MORI also asked about the Labour leadership election, and found results in line with other polling we’ve seen so far… a solid lead for don’t know! Amongst the minority who expressed an opinion, Andy Burnham, led on 15%, followed by Yvette Cooper on 14%, Liz Kendall on 11%, Jeremy Corbyn on 5% and a dummy candidate (“Stewart Lewis”) on 3%.


125 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 39, LAB 30, LD 9, UKIP 8, GRN 6”

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  1. They should run another dummy candidate with the first name of Tim. Trivia fans will know there has never been a Labour MP by that name.

  2. @Laszlo

    Denmark is a very bourgeois place. Crete on the other hand has tavernas in the hills full of men who look like extras from a Sergio Leone film.

  3. Tom Watson pledges bursary scheme for working class people to become candidates.

    Interesting – an internal Labour Party development which could significantly change the face of the next election if adopted.

    One of the stronger and more truthful criticisms of Labour is that its class makeup is pretty middle class and public sector oriented. This is an attempt to address that – though whether it will work remains to be seen.

  4. @MrNameless

    Doesn’t sound a bad idea though I think they also need a lot more people with business/ private sector experience as well as more people from working class backgrounds. Not that the two can’t be combined, of course – that’s something the Tories have done reasonably well, especially with this new intake.

  5. Good evening all from a dull grey and chilly East Renfrewshire.
    No premiership clubs in my constituency but we do have some of the most expensive houses in the UK.

    Okay onto UKIP and their dire VI at 8%.

    Looks can be deceptive and I would keep a very close eye on that UKIP VI after the EU referendum. UKIP will be the political face of the NO camp and if the UK votes to stay in the EU (which I think it will) then like in the Scottish indy ref a large chunk of the losing side will opt to vote for one party, in this case UKIP!!

    None of us foretasted the huge surge in the SNP support in the event of a NO vote and no one appears to be forecasting or even thinking about the possibility of a huge surge in UKIP support in the event of a YES vote.

    I don’t think it will be quite as dramatic as the SNP’s surge (as a proportion to the electorate) but I do think the Tories will take a pounding over it in 2020. Maybe that’s why the PM wants to hold an early ref and hopes people will have forgotten about it by 2020?

    Tick tock….

  6. @AC

    I’ve heard this suggested. Whilst it is a possibility I don’t think it can really be compared to Scotland. No voters won’t be as passionate as Scottish Yeses were and in any case Scottish voters had already shown signs of tipping towards the SNP in 2011. And I think there will be a lot of non-UKIP outers who try to make sure UKIP aren’t the public face of out. For UKIP to make further gains at the expense of the Tories I think more would have to happen than just winning a referendum.

  7. JACK SHELDON

    I take your point regarding people tipping towards the SNP in 2011 but very few polls (if any) had the SNP leading for the UK election before the indy vote took place.

    One of the main factors of the SNP’s surge was that a lot of the people who voted No opted to vote for the SNP at the election. Many I suspect felt they were let down by the VOW or lack of it.

    There is no question UKIP will be the main face of the the No side. Their whole emphasis (it’s even in the name) is to get out of Europe and regardless of what EU reforms DC manages to deliver I still think a large chunk of the UK electorate will feel they were short changed and only a full exit would had kept them happy.

    You’re right about the Yes voters being passionate but who were they and where were they before the vote? It took something like a constitutional referendum to bring people out to vote and UKIP will play the British passion card during the EU vote and it will resonate with a lot of people.

    I don’t think we will be saying after 2020 there are now more pandas in the UK than Tory MP’S but someone is going to take a hit.

  8. @AC

    Perhaps. I just think Europe is a fairly secondary issue for most people, not one that can cause the type of realignment that happened in Scotland. Scottish politics is all about the constitution these days, I don’t think British politics will be all about Europe in 2020 (unless we vote to leave).

  9. @ Wolf

    Yes, both are true. The funny thing was that he used the word bourgeois government, in the initial translation (of the English translation it came up like this, then in the polished version as right wing.

    Actually the regional differences in the Danish election results were quite marked.

  10. @AC
    ” no one appears to be forecasting or even thinking about the possibility of a huge surge in UKIP support in the event of a YES vote.”

    This no-one has been, at least in the threat of Labour losses to UKIP.

    Both the Conservatives and Labour are walking on eggshells over the EU, but only the former has the sense to acknowledge that.

    What strikes me is the contrast between the continued outright enthusiasm of the Labour leadership for the EU project, and the sullen hostility of much of the population towards it, particularly in the C2DE and older population where Labour’s support has been weakest. That hostility is not dissimilar to attitudes towards FIFA – that is the EU is seen as a dysfunctional, profligate and even corrupt organisation in which the UK carries little influence, yet just as with FIFA majority opinion is split as to whether it’s best to withdraw altogether or stay in as the lesser of two evils.

    Now that the issue of EU membership is moving towards centre stage, any party that portrays itself as being openly enthusiastic about EU membership risks misjudging the public mood very badly. In Labour’s case, but for a small minority such as Kate Hoey, that enthusiasm seems to be given almost unconditionally, such that it will continue even after Cameron has done his best to exempt the UK from much of the package of social measures that Delors used to turn Labour opinion around in the late 1980s. (Nor is the pro-EU left apparently concerned by the fiscal conservatism embedded in the EU constitution, manifest in the condiotionality of the extreme austerity being meted out to Greece.)

    So as someone on the left who tends increasingly towards euroscepticism, I can very much appreciate how many of the wider C2DE electorate might react as the EU takes centre stage, should the party that they had traditionally supported blithely campaign enthusiastically on a position light years away from their own.

  11. Good, hot, evening everyone,about seven weeks to kick off, in the Premiership.

    PHIL HAINES.
    Thanks for a brilliant post. The fiscal conservatism is interesting; the founders of the project in the 1950’s were Christian Democrats in the ‘Rerum Novarum’ school.

    As to Labour: I think they should get as close to euro scepticism as is decently possible, while being pro Yes.

    Maybe Harold Wilson could come back with Jim, Tony Crosland and Denis, the last of those is still with us.

  12. JACK SHELDON
    @AC
    Perhaps. I just think Europe is a fairly secondary issue for most people, not one that can cause the type of realignment that happened in Scotland. Scottish politics is all about the constitution these days, I don’t think British politics will be all about Europe in 2020 (unless we vote to leave)
    ______

    Independence or devolution was never at the top of the Scottish voters shopping list but the indy ref did change the dynamics of Scottish politics and to an extent the UK’s.

    I also don’t think 2020 will be all about Europe but it doesn’t have to be to be able to change the political scene. If and I mean if UKIP can hold onto most of the No votes then it could turn parts of England purple.

  13. PHIL HAINES

    Very interesting post and agree with most of your points.

    I never really thought about the implications for Labour in the event of a No vote but reading your post it makes sense to factor this in.
    The C2DE group which are by in large more likely to vote for Labour are also more likely to vote No in the EU referendum and a large chunk of this group did vote for UKIP in last months UK election.

    We saw what happened in Scotland when Labour lost a lot of it;s traditional supporters although I think some of that was to do with Labour campaigning with the Tories, however as you have pointed out Labour do tend to be more enthusiastic towards the EU than many of their voters do….something will have to give!!

  14. “Suzanne Evans ‘unsacked’ as Ukip media spokesperson” according to the Guardian.

    I suppose if it’s ok for Nige to unresign then why not…….

  15. @MrNameless

    According to the following very interesting article Labour already has a pretty diverse set of MPs – the problem is that only the minority that are spads get promoted, and they then become the public face of the party (middle-class, Oxbridge PPE etc):

    http://labourlist.org/2015/05/labour-has-a-self-inflicted-gene-pool-problem/

    That suggests to me that the constituency people are doing their jobs in trying to get working class people and people with “real jobs” into Parliament.

    The problem is at the top of the party because these people just don’t get promoted for whatever reason.

    Think about it – can you imagine a white van man type like Danczuk getting off the backbenches? Yet he obviously strikes a chord with his constituents – took Rochdale off the LibDems in 2010 and then increased the % of his vote by 10% in 2015. His wife also has a very northern working class style and boy does she get attacked for it. There’d be complete meltdown if she was in No 10.

    That attitude to the working classes from wider society is obviously feeding back into the Labour hierarchy and influencing whom they promote.

  16. @Phil Haines

    Labour would have done better to have left it’s leadership election till after the referendum so as not to have got caught with a leader on the wrong side of the voters.

    Looking at the candidates, my impression is that Yvette Cooper is the most eurosceptic of the bunch. Her history seems Atlanticist – Kennedy scholarship to Harvard, and then spending time on Clinton’s campaign at the time Clegg was in Brussels.

    And of course she’s married to Ed Balls, Mr anti-euro himself. You could argue that without Balls, Labour would have joined the euro, he seems to have single-handedly changed Brown’s mind on the issue and then persuaded him to deploy his machine to stop Blair.

    Really they ought to knight Balls for services to the UK, because we’d be in deep trouble now if we were in the euro. Sir Balls has a certain ring to it :-)

  17. @Phil Haines

    I think you make some excellent points. I would say that Labour have been trying to pay lip service at least to soft Eurospecticism over the last few years – they take credit for pushing for the govt. to seek the cut in the EU budget that they got a few years ago, for instance, and have said they don’t think the EU always works as they ideally would want it to. However, it is certainly the case that 95% of their MPs are pro-EU and that if you pressed them it would be very hard to find what they actually want to change. This position can appear out of touch with the public (including Labour supporters whose views on Europe are little different from those of Tory voters).

    It will be interesting to see how they respond to the renegotiation. They are faced with either being on the wrong side of public opinion by rejecting any substantial that might be achieved or finding themselves advancing a position very similar or identical to the Tory one. Neither option is that appealing. A third option might be to try and outflank them by saying they think Cameron didn’t go far enough but that would be hard to tally with calling for a vote to stay which they will do whatever.

    When it comes to the referendum I think the public will vote to stay but among those that want to leave Labour may indeed risk leaking votes to UKIP to a greater extent than the Tories if they don’t get things right.

  18. @ Phil Haines

    Liked and agreed with your post a great deal. The views in my household are very eurosceptic because of the right-wing economic fundamentals of the EU. If Cameron manages to undo our committment to the social protections of the Delors inspired Social Chapter, then a big question for socialists becomes “Is the EU worth remaining within without the Social Chapter applying to the UK?” Indeed if Cameron achieves that opt-out, might it not be better to be outside the EU and at least hope for a majority Socialist government in the future unshackled by EU pro-capitalist privatisation rules?

  19. I think Corbyn might be the most Euro-Sceptic of the candidates actually. He is the only candidate so far to hint at possibly supporting a withdrawal.

  20. The question on whether the UK votes to stay in the EU if major concessions is quite straight forward.

    The harder question is that should changes be modest or non-existent, what will people do?

    I can imagine a large number of splinters in the backsides of parties, except for UKIP, caused by fence-sitting.

    The question might be stay in a relatively unreformed EU or leave the benefit of a huge free-trade area and hope there will be no economic damage.

    That is much trickier.

  21. Correction

    The question on whether the UK votes to stay in the EU if major concessions are agreed is quite straight forward.

    The harder question is that should changes be modest or non-existent, what will people do?

    I can imagine a large number of splinters in the backsides of parties, except for UKIP, caused by fence-sitting.

    The question might be stay in a relatively unreformed EU or leave the benefit of a huge free-trade area and hope there will be no economic damage.

    That is much trickier.

  22. Good Evening All, after a chess triumph and AFC B season ticket collection here by the sea in Bournemouth East; a safe seat for Tobias.

    There was a nice write-up about Yvette today in The T. Momentum with Yvette, I think.

  23. Alan Johnson has been appointed by Harriet H to lead Labour’s pro EU campaign. Good choice, IMO, and may help the Labour Party to grow in stature, competence and common touch.
    The cycle.

  24. I have spent much time today looking at data relating to the UK’s Budgetary position, and having done so am quite aghast at Labour’s failure to make much more effective use of this during the election and the period leading up to it.
    What emerges is that since World War 2 the UK has run a Budget surplus in just 11 years. Of those years no less than 9 were under Labour administrations – the 2 Tory years being restricted to the late 1980s when Lawson was Chancellor benefitting from North Sea Oil and Privatisation receipts. Why on earth did Labour fail to use this material to combat Tory scares – and to help restore their reputation for economic competence?

  25. A lot of very sensible posts tonight, most of which i agree with. One question to Chris Lane though – what is the likelihood of Johnson being replaced once Labour finally elect a new leader (which I presume would happen before the referendum)?

  26. And when Cameron campaigns for a yes vote and if the majority vote no then does he step down? How can you trust a Prime Minister who wanted to stay in the EU to run an administration properly to introduce a proper EU exit?

    Talking of exits, Greece looks set to leave the Euro, step in Putin.
    Maybe he might do a Crimea? after all half the Northern Fleet is parked permanently in the East Med and appears to have given up on saving Syria’s backside.

    Quite interesting the Greek PM was in Russia today at a economic forum.

  27. @AC
    Will Greece join the Rouble zone, I wonder? I can see why Putin might be interested. From his point of view the EU and NATO have taken over some of USSR’s old areas such as the Baltic States, so it would just be tit for tat.

  28. PETE B.
    Hello.
    I would think that the new leader (of TIGMOO) will delegate the spade work to Alan J; that would be sensible, IMO, but, of course, that does not mean it will happen.

    Alan J would be an asset, I think he has grown in stature through the endurance of events which touched him deeply.

  29. Greece – much anguish abounds.

    Looking very shaky now, and all manner of issues emerge once we scratch the surface.

    For me, the primary issue is the subversion of national democracy, and this may well have telling consequences for our own referendum. Martyring a left wing democratically elected government fits very well with @Phil Haines notion of a fiscally conservative EU. Just why are we in this dysfunctional organization, and can’t we find a better group of thinkers to run the show if we want to stay?

    It’s a dreadful mess, but the ECB is again acting like a covert government agency, rather than a central bank. Regime change by bank crisis seems to be the tactic. Pretty despicable, and if Greece is put to the slaughter, it will be interesting to watch the reaction of radical opinion (both left and right) in other countries.

    ‘Ever closer union’ under ever greater threat than at any time since the 1950’s. I would say.

  30. @Chris Lane
    I agree with your views on Alan J. He’s one of the few high up in the Labour hierarchy who’s ever had a real job, which gets him lots of credit with me.

    Two questions though – what is TIGMOO? And what are these events which touched him deeply? I’ve looked him up on Wikipedia and it says he was divorced last year. Is that what you refer to?

  31. @Alec
    Didn’t the EU set a precedent recently by appointing someone to serve as Italy’s head of governemnt for a while?

  32. PETE B
    @AC
    “Will Greece join the Rouble zone, I wonder? I can see why Putin might be interested. From his point of view the EU and NATO have taken over some of USSR’s old areas such as the Baltic States, so it would just be tit for tat”
    _______

    They could well do or opt back to their old currency, the Drachma, with the help of a low interest loan from Moscow.

    Russia’s own economy has taken a bit of a dip due to sanctions but with Brazil Russia India China and South Africa (BRICS) creating a World bank to rival the American dominated one then I don’t see the collapse of Russia anytime soon.

    It would be quite a scoop for Moscow to bail out Greece and for the Euro to collapse as a result. After all, Putin did say Europe doesn’t need Russia to destroy it, they’re doing it themselves!!

  33. ALEC

    “It’s a dreadful mess, but the ECB is again acting like a covert government agency, rather than a central bank. Regime change by bank crisis seems to be the tactic. Pretty despicable, and if Greece is put to the slaughter, it will be interesting to watch the reaction of radical opinion (both left and right) in other countries”
    _____

    Absolutely!! The ECB is just a branch office of Germany. Greece is a very popular tourist destination for millions of Europeans and a lot of us have great affection for the Greeks and enjoyed holidays in the country.

    Old Greek proverb…. “From a thorn a rose emerges and from a rose a thorn”

  34. Well, Greece was adopted so quickly to the EEC (as it was called then), because after the fall of the fascist regime, the new government was negotiating with the Comecon (the Soviet Union really) to join. Ministries and party back offices were staffed by people who were immigrants to the Eastern Block (some very bright people indeed).

  35. If Greece falls, it is unlikely that it would be drachma, more likely the Crna Gora (Montenegro) solution: Euro without a real national currency.

    Everybody is talking about the Russian influence (it exists), but very little about the existing/potential Gulf interest. Half of the former Yugoslavia is owned by them, Greece would be a real gem …

  36. I don’t like when there are three posts from me without other posters, but …

    @ Alec

    The Maastricht Treety was written by bankers. There is quite a bit of primary evidence for that.

    The EU has changed in the last 10-15 years, it actually has become better. However, it remained a consensus driven organisation, both at the level of the Commission and the Council of Ministers. As a result they are quite willing to find the compromise between the fir and the fire engine. This then has an inevitable result.

    So, the EU is status quo driven. At any cost.yet they are not stupid people. However Greece caused a problem. Not because of the debt. It is nothing. But because of the example. This is what needs to be weeded, or forcing them to be similar to the status quo.

    The EU feels threatened by two major shifts. One is the emergence of the anti-immigration right (that mixes this with a rightwing economics, but with a populist narrative – see the change in UKIP), and the emergence of a strange left – left of the social democrats, that are not afraid to make strange coalitions for relatively simple but far reaching objectives.

    The EU hopes that growth will take these threats away, and hence wants to gain time. It could work, but it could lead to a catastrophic result.

  37. Interesting how the predominantly left of centre contributors here are posting anti-EU opinions.

    I would not be surprised to see a fudge emerge on Greece-its what the EU does .

    I think the EU will be shaken to its core -but not by a small member state with an inability to tax its citizens.

    The waves of migration from Africa & the Middle East will increase as millions flee from Islam’s sectarian slaughter.

    The figures are staggering.

    http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=51185#.VYUBaflViko

    The EU will be a destination of choice for many of this tidal wave of humanity.
    The effects on European countries will be considerable & have economic & thus political consequences.

    Ever closer union will not be a welcome message for many EU citizens who will begin to think of fences & drawbridges. Politicians who fail to understand these fears will perish.

  38. @ALEC

    @”For me, the primary issue is the subversion of national democracy”

    This is Tsipras’ mantra-my people voted not to recognise our creditors or pay our debts. You must respect their democratic right to make these decisions.

    An interesting idea. :-)

  39. Good Morning All, cloudy here, but will be sunny by the sea at noon.

    PETE B.
    TIGMOO stands for the old Labour phrase: ‘The Great Movement of Ours’.
    AJ’s ‘events’ includes bringing up a family when he was a boy, and, in recent times, becoming quite poorly which is why he resigned from being Shadow Chancellor in Ed M’s first year as leader.

  40. Ajs wife was having an affair with his security officer.

    Miliband had seriously fallen out with balls and mad dog mcbride in 2007 when balls tried to deflect the blame for the election that never was away from brown and onto miliband and livermore.

    So he was desperate not to appoint balls as shadow chancellor -but david miliband turned the job down three times and aj couldnt add up up and was embarrassed at his lack of knowledge of economics plus he was seriously distracted by his problems at home.

    So in the end aj walked and miliband had to appoint balls.

  41. Colin

    As usual we are in broad agreement. However I would go further, I think the flood of refugees could be the flash point that leads to the eventual breakup of the EU.

  42. ALEC

    @”the ECB is again acting like a covert government agency, rather than a central bank.”

    It is.

    ECB is currently supporting Greece’s banks with 81bn euros of liquidity, by taking worthless Greek Bonds and hugely impaired **Greek private sector debt , as collateral.

    If this was the BoE , this support would have ceased long ago.

    ** It is estimated that 40% of loans made to Greek private sector are rotten.

  43. TOH

    I wouldn’t disagree.

    It will become unsustainable-or at least, unnacceptable to the citizens of EU.

    We see the strains most clearly in that traditional heart of Social Democratic Europe-Scandinavia. The strains showed in Denmark’s GE . & effected the outcome.

  44. @Colin

    “ECB is currently supporting Greece’s banks with 81bn euros of liquidity, by taking worthless Greek Bonds and hugely impaired **Greek private sector debt , as collateral.”

    That would all be very commendable but for the scale and pace of the austerity that it has insisted on imposing in return in search of an illusory budget surplus, making the debt problem worse rather than better because the ability of the shrinking Greek economy to service that debt has now completely collapsed.

  45. Hi All

    Guess Alex Salmond’s favourite website?

    It’s us – UK polling report. (interview in Buzzfeed)

    So you better all watch what you say about Alex or the SNP because he will be reading it. haha

  46. Is it worth IPSOS/MORI’s while “tweaking” their methodology in advance of the British Election Study’s inquiry into the performance of opinion polls during the next General Election?

    By the way, I went to the BES’ public meeting yesterday announcing this enquiry. It was interesting but very technical. Laura Pitel has reported this meeting on Page 8 of today’s “The Times.” She is fair and accurate in what she said although she gives more emphasis than I would have done to Martin Boon’s pessimism for polling in the future. She is rightly critical about Survation, even if she doesn’t mention that they had a hiccup getting their computer going; but Survation were hardly major players at the meeting.

    There was general agreement that “late swing” does not explain the opinion polls’ failure.

    Back to this and other recent polls. It appears clear that there has been a sizeable swing to the Conservatives since the General Election, from Labour and UKIP. It there were hypothetically a General Election tomorrow there would be a large Conservative majority. The main reason is in my view that all the other parties are considering their leadership rather than offering alternative policies, and the electorate are finding this a big turn-off.

  47. I think current polling is almost worthless, given the Government and the SNP are the only functioning parties right now.

    Let’s see all the new leaders get their feet under the table, and give then six months.

  48. Good morning all from Clarkston. Yes a few miles up the road fae my own abode but you do have to visit the parents every so often. It’s great they have internet, passes the time quicker.
    ……..

    THE OTHER HOWARD
    Colin
    “As usual we are in broad agreement”
    _____

    You two always follow suit, in fact you both remind me of Russia and China at the UN. What Russia says China broadly agrees with.

    You can fight it out as to who’s the Russian Bear and who’s the cub. ;-)

  49. @PHIL HAINES

    “…That would all be very commendable but for the scale and pace of the austerity that it has insisted on imposing…”

    The “austerity” you refer to is asking Greece to spend less that it brings in in tax. I’m trying really hard, but I’m finding it difficult to characterise that as “bad”.

    The “imposing” you refer to is asking them nicely and pointing out that if they don’t, they will…stop giving them over a billion euros a day in liquidity assistance. Again, I find it difficult to characterise that as “bad”.

    To perhaps make it simpler: if you think Greece is a victim, then I will lie to you, take approximately twice the value of my house off you by lying about my salary, refuse to tell you until pressed, get the loans switched for other loans over 30 years at <1% interestpa, write off ~20% of the loans, refuse to pay off the loans back and then, when you object to all this, I will call you a Nazi and scream "AUSTERITY".

    If you're willing to do that, then I'm willing to concede your point.

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