Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor is out, their first since the election. Topline figures are CON 39%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%, GRN 6%. As with other recent voting intention polls, the figures themselves are perhaps less interesting than the methodology changes. In the case of Ipsos MORI, they’ve made an adjustment to their turnout filter. In the past they used to take only those respondents who said they were 10/10 certain to vote, the tightest of all the companies’ approaches. Their new approach is a little more complex, filtering people based on how likely they say they are to vote at an election and how regularly they say they usually vote – now they include only people who say their likelihood to vote is 9/10 or 10/10 AND who say they usually or always vote or “it depends”. People who say they rarely, never or sometimes vote are excluded.

The impact of this doesn’t appear to be massive. We can tell from the tables that the old method would have produced similar results of CON 39%, LAB 29%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%, GRN 6%. In their comments on their topline results MORI are very explicit that this is just an interim measure, and that they anticipate making further changes in the future as their internal inquiry and the BPC inquiry continue.

Looking at the other questions in the survey, MORI also asked about the Labour leadership election, and found results in line with other polling we’ve seen so far… a solid lead for don’t know! Amongst the minority who expressed an opinion, Andy Burnham, led on 15%, followed by Yvette Cooper on 14%, Liz Kendall on 11%, Jeremy Corbyn on 5% and a dummy candidate (“Stewart Lewis”) on 3%.


125 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 39, LAB 30, LD 9, UKIP 8, GRN 6”

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  1. Good Afternoon from a hot Bournemouth, with the Premier League Fixtures out now.

    ANTHONY: Thank you, as ever, for the updating of the poll news.
    I think the Labour leadership debate will not alarm the Tories very much.

  2. Why are Lockheed Martin advertising the F-35 on this website? Do they think I might buy one?

    I like the idea of including a dummy candidate. And that referendum lead is very encouraging for Yes, although pretty meaningless this far out (when we don’t even know when it will be).

    Also, UKIP seem to be in freefall.

  3. If the general election has taught us anything it’s to not get too excited about single polls. To say that UKIP is in “freefall” given other polling companies have put UKIP around the same percentage as they had in the general election I think is overcooking it.

  4. @MrNameless

    Even if you had the cash (I know you students are loaded) perhaps the Government might take a small interest in a private citizen buying a fighter.

    Well, you’d hope so!

  5. Based on the last five years, polls are going to tell us nothing whatsoever.

    The GE is the only poll that counts!

  6. Whilst the tories might not be concerned about the labour leadership debate chris of the prem the main contenders have moved straight away to address ed milibands alleged weaknesses.Always fighting the last battle those politicians.

    They in their various ways have faced up to the voters perception of overborrowing/overspending in the blair/brown years and their leadership style is clearly going to be different to his.They are making the right noises on pushing ukip back in the north and attacking tory marginals in the south and midlands.

    They are silent on the scottish problem tho its pretty obvious they need to let scottish labour regenerate itself from the bottom up-probably wise at the moment as the tories and the snp will be going at it hammer and tongs fairly soon

    Do they believe in a federal uk with the implied change in voting system in england.

    I would say cooper is conservative on all those issues,burnham and kendall will be more openminded.

    Its early days and they will face a new tory leader in 2020 .Policies can wait.

  7. Danish exit poll (if I saw it right it is a YouGov one).

    Neck and neck, projected: right 3 seats ahead.

  8. Another exit poll gives the blues one majority, which will go once the island votes come in, and hence the current government can continue.

  9. Suzanne evans dumped after saying nige is too divisive to lead the NO campaign .

  10. @Laszlo

    Aren’t the Faroe Islanders upset with the government over fishing restrictions?

  11. I thought that she was one of UKIPs best communicators during the election.

    NIgel is very marmite, and if you don’t think he’s the messiah, you probably dislike him intensely.

    On the other hand, she came across much less aggressively and offered something different to Nigel’s blokishness.

    I suspect she is correct, but being so open isn’t always a good career move.

  12. I’m very interested in this Stewart Lewis guy. Can I vote for him?

  13. Blues pulling ahead in Denmark. Latest projection:

    Blues 92, Reds 83.

  14. Great result for Stewart Lewis, given the way he’s been denied publicity thus far.

  15. Denmarks exit polls seems to have followed our election of slightly underestimating the right.
    If the DPP leader becomes PM could he be Automatically Europe Most hated PM amongst his own country. I could imagine like in the UK centre-Right wingers hate the DPP just as much as many torries hate UKIP. Along with a left which I cant imagine likes him at all.

  16. @ Anthony, Is there any evidence from previous leadership elections about whether that DK and DCare number ever drops much through campaigns.

    The reason I ask is that, of course, not that many people will actually get a chance to vote in the election but these sorts of figures get used by the campaign (e.g. AB says he is ahead in the country!!) and then it swings votes in the campaign itself, even though it is misleading.

    Are there much more focussed polls done of actual Labour voters, and also polls of Lab leaners who voted Tory last time and who they might vote for? Probably the problem of ultra small sub samples.

  17. It is excellent to find that I can still read the posts of Mr Nameless. i have not been very attentive to events on UKPR and was afraid that he had disappeared.

    On a different point Antony alerted us to an analysis by one of the Pollsters which went through the various steps they had taken to correct one of their pre-election polls and looked at the degree to which these did or did move them in the right direction. (To my memory the demographic weighting moved them in the wrong direction so that subsequent to that they had little chance of getting the right result). I had expected to find this archived under ‘what went wrong’ but couldn’t find it there or anywhere else. Can anyone point me in the right direction? Thanks in advance if you can.

  18. Seems like Denmark’s exit polls had a bit of a bad time if the forecast’s are accurate. There opinon Polls as well.
    Case of shy populists. Through that did not happen in our Opinion or Exit Polls last month

  19. And leads to the strange Spectacle of the Party which has a five percent lead not getting into government which is strange for us Brits.

  20. Unless they have grand coalition which I what I read someone suggesting may happen.

  21. Yes, it seems that the exit polls in Denmark underestimated the blue corner. It is interesting that the populist will be the second largest party.

    Also interesting parallel that although the SD increased its voting share (oddly by 1.5%), yet they lost.

  22. And also underestimated the SD in the exit poll(25.7 to 26.50 as well but their allies were overestimated.
    Looks like the V were the biggest losers to the DPP.
    Apparentley it is not that likely V will accept a DPP lead government through.

  23. @Catmanjeff

    Suzanne Evans was totally right about Farage in relation to his likely impact on the No campaign and that he needed a break (he certainly wasn’t at his best during the GE). However, I’m not convinced she would be able to mobilise populist votes – she is perhaps UKIP’s most competent media performer and did pretty well with their manifesto (they could credibly say it was better costed than the CON or LAB ones) but UKIP voters don’t vote for polish (or Polish).

  24. In Denmark the suggestion seems to be that the leader of the third largest party in the Folketing could become PM. Denmark used to be considered a stable, normally social democratic, country but in recent years their politics has become very erratic.

  25. Yeah she Is totally right( through as a Europhile Farage as leader of the No’s gets an massive Head up from me.). Not sure she would be able to gain any more votes. She does not come across as a person of the People which is what Farrage main quality is. She is also very new to the party and previously in the Tories. Might damage her and party in the Labour north compared to Farrage who has been Ukip for 20 years.

  26. Quite interesting from the deputy chairman of the Liberal Party of Denmark. “It looks like We will have a bourgeois government, but lots of liberals will lose their seats”.

    He defined parties by classes …

  27. @BM11

    I think Paul Nuttall, their deputy leader, would be a better alternative leader were they to dispose of Farage. Northern, straight-talking, but doesn’t carry the baggage Farage now does.

  28. Then in the English translation it becomes a “right wing government” …

    Interesting differences. The French call the English Civil War, for example, English Revolution, and the Glorious Revolution as Compromise of 1689 …

  29. Wow! After counting 70% of the vote one of the exit poll companies revise their predictions!

  30. I think this Danish election outcome is a good example of the problems you can get with PR. Much easier to say they’re getting a government they didn’t vote for than we did – every chance a party that lost 7% of the vote will get the PM and a government that improved by 1.5% will be booted out. Not that any party in Denmark can be said to be popular even by modern British standards.

  31. @Jack Sheldon

    If PR causes such an issue with the Danes, I look forward to seeing the campaign they will mount to awitch to FPTP.

    ;-)

  32. @CatmanJeff

    Ha

  33. Yeah. It seems V who came third will get the PM as apparently the other two Right parties don’t like the DPP that much and will be worried of losing support as the DPP is very polarising( Like UKIP) and supporting a DPP lead government may cost them support I read on twitter.
    Two main parties in a coalition with almost equal strength must be nightmare to arrange and keep stable.
    Very strange system.

  34. Looks like the uk wont be part of the EU approach on tax -a negotiating move on reform?

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/18/uk-reject-eu-plans-combat-multinational-tax-avoidance

    Or just the government standing shoulder to shoulder with the City.?

  35. Lib Dems in third place??? When did that last happen?

  36. DK called the election for the Blue.

  37. DK = DR …

  38. Took they time to call it in Denmark.
    I wonder how long the collation deal will take. Last time it took a week apparently and I imagine the tightness of the two main right parties will make it hard.

  39. I don’t know how long the coalition negotiations will be, but Dahl, the populist leader is giving a victory speech (second largest party).

  40. Quite a few green and lefty votes were picked up by the populists apparently (after accounting for the Alternative Party). Protest vote? Any lesson for the UK, or at least E&W?

  41. @BM11

    Much like here then. On election night the BBC projection seemed to lag a fair way behind what the results coming in were suggesting – they didn’t even mention the possibility of a majority until well after results like North Warks had made that look very possible.

  42. Must be portest votes. Couldn’t imagine true socialists in Denmark voting for the DPP because of some of ethno-race comment.

  43. @ BM11

    I agree with you.

    Why raised it was the notion in the UK of LibDem<Lab<UKIP, Green.

    What if: (dominant in many regions, but not decisive) LibDem<UKIP
    LiBDem < Labour (in certain regions dominant)
    Lab<UKIP (in certain regions common, but not decisive)
    Lab<Green
    CON<UKIP (common, but not decisive)

  44. Alan Johnson to lead Labour In campaign, according to the Staggers.

  45. My half sister is Danish and although she’s quite far to the left on economics and, in particular, environmental issues, she’s also very vocal about lax immigration policy. I’m not so sure immigration is quite such a “left-right” issue for continental Europeans. Perhaps because so many of their immigrants are socially conservative Muslims. It may be that for some defending social progression is more important than defending political-economic progression.

  46. Speculation in the Guardian that the Lib Dem peers will try to amend the EU Ref bill to allow 16 & 17 year olds to vote.

    If LD (101), Lab (212) and Con (228) peers all vote on party lines, the LD’s would need to get support from just over a quarter of the 178 cross benchers to defeat the government.

  47. While that may be the case in Denmark to an extent(I cant find the DPP social views in any depth.) I imagine in Finland the Finns party don’t get votes from People who are worried Immigrants may affect social liberal polices considering their anti same sex marriage, abortion and same sex couples adoption. Not exactly polices anyone who is socially liberal would be for especially the first and third one.

  48. Support for EU membership the highest it has been for 25 years according to Ipsos MORI – http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/we-want-to-stay-in-eu-voters-tell-pm-10331462.html I expect the referendum to result in a comfortable Yes vote but did not expect polls to look like this so soon…

    @Exile in Yorks

    There are certainly the votes to amend it in the Lords on paper. However, I suspect Labour’s peers are somewhat more conservative on this than their MPs are and I’m not sure there would be a desire to unduly hold up a bill that needs to get on the statute book fairly quickly. I expect peers may therefore decide it is more worthwhile pushing amendments relating to purdah and other technicalities.

  49. Apparently Angus Reid are still polling – in Canada. The NDP have soared recently at the expense of the Liberals.

    http://angusreid.org/federal-politics-june2015/

  50. What are Labour thinking of? A left wing headbanger like Stewart Lewis will turn off any left of centre person who has reason, completely.
    His period as CEO of Liverfield City Council, tells you all you need to know.

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