The Guardian themselves seem to have put a pause on reporting their polls, but they are wisely continuing to commission their series of ICM/Guardian polls so as not to leave a gap in the data. Topline figures in the first post-election ICM poll are CON 37%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%. Tabs are here.

In terms of methodology ICM are using the same method as before the election – except, of course, that the data is weighted using people’s recall of their 2015 vote, not their 2010 vote. ICM’s tables make is abundently clear that is just a holding position, and that they are keeping their old method for the time being while they continue to investigate what went wrong and until they are sure of the right solution.


212 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 37, LAB 31, LDEM 8, UKIP 13, GRN 5”

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  1. EU Citizens Voting in EU Referendum:

    Yes: 71
    No: 514

    Labour must have voted with the Government then.

  2. CMJ

    But Lab MP Barry Sheerman says it’s just to keep people children till they are 18 and “this move to have adults at 16 will make a lot of young men and women more vulnerable to sexual predation than that happens at the moment.”

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/letting-teenagers-vote-make-vulnerable-5905830

    He makes a good argument for 74 year olds being banned from sitting as MPs!

  3. CMJ

    “Labour must have voted with the Government then.”

    Am I allowed to say “Quelle surprise” – or is that too European?

  4. I have a lot of sympathy with the argument Barry Sheerman put forward… the franchise is usually seen as a key indicator of adulthood and I would not want to start treating 16-18 year olds as fully fledged adults, thereby removing the legal protection they have as minors. For reasons I posted about a couple of weeks ago I do, however, think there is some merit in the general principle of votes at 16 though certainly not for a one-off extension.

  5. @CMJ

    Funny old world where the Gov won’t talk about the memo leak for fear of damaging French relations, but it and it’s opposition vote to omit EU nationals from a vote on EU membership, and risk damaging relations with 27 nations.

    Ho hum.

  6. @Statgeek

    Omitting EU nationals is entirely normal practice for a national electoral event… including them would only lead to accusations that the vote was being rigged by seeking to make a special exemption from the normal franchise for a group that would presumably vote, virtually without exception, to stay in.

  7. I live not too far from Barry Sheerman’s Constituency, and being polite, he’s made a range of shall we say ‘interesting’ comments over the years.

    @Jack Sheldon

    Surely giving the vote to someone who is 16 or 17 only affects just voting, and makes no difference to the legal protection afforded to minors.

    I think linking the two issues is quite barmy.

  8. Interesting speech by John McDonnell on E Voting

  9. Ultras on cooper.

    Tea or coffee yvette ?

    “Well I like tea,but we musnt forget about the coffee”

  10. Meanwhile in Caledonia ……..

    The despicable SNP DELIBERATELY vote to expose Young People to sexual depredation

    Derek Mackay MSP
    Looking forward to voting tonight in @ScotParl to give 16 & 17 yr olds the vote in Scottish and Council elections

  11. @Jack Sheldon

    “Normal practice” – meaning not very ground breaking or inspiring. On that basis Scotland could have prevented English people living in Scotland from voting on the grounds that they would have been biased.

    Cake and Eat it.

  12. @Oldnat

    You should be a headline writer for the Daily Mail.

    @Statgeek

    If normal practice had been prioritised over innovation, I would suggest we would have never left our caves….

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