The Guardian themselves seem to have put a pause on reporting their polls, but they are wisely continuing to commission their series of ICM/Guardian polls so as not to leave a gap in the data. Topline figures in the first post-election ICM poll are CON 37%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%. Tabs are here.

In terms of methodology ICM are using the same method as before the election – except, of course, that the data is weighted using people’s recall of their 2015 vote, not their 2010 vote. ICM’s tables make is abundently clear that is just a holding position, and that they are keeping their old method for the time being while they continue to investigate what went wrong and until they are sure of the right solution.


212 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 37, LAB 31, LDEM 8, UKIP 13, GRN 5”

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  1. As yours @OLDNAT.

  2. Major ructions in Greece. We may soon be able to witness a real live ‘stress test’ and see whether a Greek exit really can’t lead to major contagion, as the Euro nations have stated.

    Very high stakes here. If Greece does default, and then drop out of the Euro, that is the effective end of the Euro as a global long term currency. Once anyone leaves, it means anyone can leave, as Robert Peston points out. Deathknell for currency credibility that has inescapable long term conclusions.

    Alec
    (Clean shaven)

  3. Struggling to understand where we are with Labour politics at present.

    Corbyn on the ballot is schoolboy (schoolgirl?) stuff. Nonsense, and the kind of thing that makes voters weep, if they bothered to read the news of such things.

    ‘Do you support this man as your future leader – yes or no?’
    ‘No, but I’m going to nominate him anyway’.

    Daft.

    Tonight’s EU vote abstention is a touch more interesting, but only just. I am slightly baffled by why Labour didn’t go with the principle of aiming for fair rules, which they could easily have done, along with reaping the reward of defeating the government.

    Principle along with mischief – the best possible outcome for any opposition.

    I’m increasingly getting the feeling that Labour MPs are brain dead walking zombies, too busy eating themselves to actually form an effective opposition.

    That may be unfair, but I’m surprised they haven’t decided to play honest broker on the referendum set up and insist on a full and fair democratic basis for the event.

  4. OldNat

    Thanks – living on the Jurassic Coast ( actually the Triassic bit ), I should have known about the Devonian Controversy.

  5. Millie

    It’s a long time since I’ve visited there. Lovely part of the world (at least in this geologic era :-) )

  6. “… the Devonian Controversy.”

    Thought that was something to do with cream, jam and/or butter?

    Or was it carrots?

    Devon does seem to get itself into more controversies than most counties.

    At least when Yorkshire gets into a debate, they can just settle it by getting their grandmothers to hit it with a stick of rhubarb.

    Alec
    (Bearded)

  7. @ Alec

    You show perfectly well my point about the Green Party and parliamentary system a couple of topics earlier.

  8. Alec

    Must say I’m impressed by the speed at which your facial hair grows! As to your puzzlement on certain parliamentary tactics, it could be that Labour are actually quite happy with the abolition of purdah in the EUref.

    After all, they have a track record of campaigning alongside the Tories [1] to win a referendum, but being destroyed in the consequent election because of the tactics that many thought [2] they employed.

    I suspect that many in LiS have a pretty clear idea of how damaging the strategy was, but the remaining (now just E&W MPs) may not have that awareness.

    [1] An unfair point? Of course. Since both parties wanted the same result, they were bound to make similar arguments. It was the closeness of the association (leading LiS folk boasting about taking Tory money to achieve Labour ends, for example)

    [2] As always in politics, “reality” is much less important than perception among key groups of voters.

  9. “As always in politics, “reality” is much less important than perception among key groups of voters.”

    What a depressing truth.

  10. @Pete B – “How do Corbyn’s ideas compare to Michael Foot’s? If, as I believe, they’re pretty similar I don’t think the Tories will be terrified.”

    They should be. Foot would have won the 1982 election, and done so easily, if Thatcher hadn’t got lucky in the Falklands.

  11. Chris Green

    It may be that only ex-politicians are mature enough to enter the adult world (and its uncomfortable realities).

    Tom Harris has this refreshingly commentary on how things might have been – if he, his colleagues, and their equivalents in other parties had behaved differently (ie in an imaginary universe!)

    http://labourhame.com/time-to-grow-up-boys-and-girls/

    So the SNP accuse Labour of letting Scotland down and Labour accuses the SNP of screwing up NHS waiting lists and exam results, and everyone accuses the Tories of being generally evil and uncaring…

    It’s all a little tiresome. And dishonest.

    Except, of course, for the sad folk whose only pleasure comes from annoying their political opponents. For such, there is no hope.

  12. @OldNat – It often seems that the less difference there is between two parties, the more they vilify each other, as if to make up for the lack of difference.

  13. Today the full consequences of the cherries promotion will be known as the 2015/16 prem fixtures are published.

  14. Chris Green

    I think that’s inevitable as the politicians in both parties struggle to gain the allegiance of the same group of voters.

    What has been obvious for a long time in Scotland was the willingness of a large number of voters to float between SNP and LiS, or to split their votes between them in different kinds of elections. Meanwhile, the activists and party strategists painted their rivals in darker and darker colours.

    What will be interesting in Scotland’s new political environment will be to see which group(s) of voters LiS decide to target – and whether that will add to, or drive away, their existing voters.

    Equally, in England, it will be fascinating to see if Labour revert to Blairite triangulation, and how similar they become to Tory positions. If they become close, then I’d imagine that the rather formulaic positioning as being “agin the Tories” could move to being the more bitter conflict between two largely similar parties.

    Watching politics is much more fun than taking part!

  15. O7052015
    Good Morning to you, from Cherries Town as we await the List of Fixtures.
    CHRIS GREEN.
    Before the Falklands War the SDP-Liberal Alliance was ahead of Labour sometimes in the polling.
    The Tories were recovering in the polls prior to the Falklands War, but polls did indicate that if Labour had voted for Healey rather than Foot as leader then Labour might well have been ahead.

  16. ALEC

    @”Major ructions in Greece”

    Beware Greeks seeking gifts.

  17. In the two months preceding the Falklands War, there were five polls. In two of these, the Tories were ahead. In another, Labour were even with the Alliance on 33%. In another, the Alliance led Labour by 2%. Finally, in another Labour and the Tories were even. In short, given double-digit unemployment and inflation still in about double-digits, Labour were doing absolutely awfully in early 1982. You can point to the Alliance, but the success of the SDP just backs up the point: people were desperate for an opposition to Thatcher that they could accept, and for a lot of people that wasn’t Foot’s Labour.

    Had there been an election in 1982, Labour may well have been in a position to at least be the largest party in a hung parliament. However, they would be doing so on about a third of the vote, which is not much more than what they won in 1983. That may count as winning- if you think the Tories won in 2010…

    Had there been an election in 1983, after inflation fell and the economy was growing relatively quickly again, it’s very hard to see how Labour would win, even if there had been no Falklands War. What is plausible is that the Tories would not have had such an overwhelming majority.

    It really WAS that bad for Labour under Foot.

    I agree with Chrislane1945 that things would have been different if Healey was leader. In fact, I think he understates the point: I find it very hard to see the SDP doing half as well if Labour had a moderate leader in the early 1980s, and it’s conceivable that the Gang of Four would have at least tolerated Healey’s leadership and not split. Labour could have won a landslide in 1983- but not under Foot, and not with THAT manifesto.

  18. Also, the BSA suggests that attitudes have moved away from socialism on issues like nationalisation since 1983. The 1983 Labour manifesto would presumably not have as enthusiastic a reception from the public in 2020 as it did in 1983.

  19. Alec

    Your comment regarding Devon Controversies and ‘carrots’ is, I presume, a reference to the inclusion by Greggs of peas and carrots in their pasties.

    In truth, you can include anything in a pasty: in the rural south-west, they often had no choice.

    But there is no controversy over the origin of the pasty – it is a Devon invention, which Cornish miners adopted as it was well suited to taking underground.

    As for the cream or jam first debate, there are no rules, but something deep within me stirs when I see jam on top of the cream: it starts with a mild anger, goes through resentment and despair, and culminates in pity for the perpetrator. I try to control it.

  20. Some thoughts on yesterday’s parliamentary action…

    As Dominic Grieve rightly said in the debate I’m not sure why the government try to do this type of thing… either they are hoping (wishfully) that the backbenchers will miss it altogether and they will therefore slip it through or they are posting an open invitation for a fairly trivial confrontation that takes up lots of time and gives the impression of massive divisions.

    Having heard what backbenchers had to say and committed to look at the purdah issue again at Report it was odd that the government decided to persist with pushing the clause. They could simply have voted against it themselves and come back with something better, thereby avoiding the rebellion.

    The scale of the rebellion was quite significant. 25 doesn’t sound much but it would have been enough to lose this vote had Labour bothered to go through the lobbies and there is good reason to believe that this number could be increased on similar issues in future – some noted spectics, including Peter Bone and Jacob Rees-Mogg, actually voted with the government whilst no new MPs were prepared to rebel this early but that probably won’t last long if the last Parliament is anything to go by. Furthermore, even on this relatively minor issue the rebels were able to attract such figures as Liam Fox (the first time he had ever rebelled) and Owen Paterson.

    But the government’s performance was probably trumped for ineptitude by Labour who, given the government commitment to come back at report, effectively had a free hit and missed. The chance to find a common cause not only with the other opposition parties but also with the right wing Tory rebels won’t come along too often and I found it quite remarkable that they didn’t take it. All abstaining can do is give the impression that they are in league with the Tory front bench on this and fuel the SNP’s claim to be the ‘real opposition’.

  21. MILLIE

    @”But there is no controversy over the origin of the pasty – it is a Devon invention, which Cornish miners adopted as it was well suited to taking underground.”

    Giss on-can tell you’m from up north my’ansum.

    Doan ee try sayin that in ‘Druth-or you’ll be underground :-)

  22. @JackjSheldon

    I suspect Labour is trying not to bind the hands of its next leader.

  23. Ken Clark expresses my thoughts about yesterday in Parliament-the public won’t have a clue what we’re on about.

    A day of political games & posturing to which the average voter will say -“uh” ?

  24. Get your points early chris ,manu away last game and chel and pool at home in the last five.

  25. @Raf

    You may well be right. But as the 2010-15 cycle showed what happens early in the Parliament is crucial. It was then that Osborne was able to shape the narrative for what followed, cementing the notion that Labour caused the economic crisis. Judging by Chris Leslie’s hopeless performance at yesterday’s Treasury questions (he wasted one of his two qs asking why GO wasn’t showing up to an opposition day debate today and failed to get remotely close to landing a blow with the other) Osborne is well on his way to doing the same again.

    Incidentally, Osborne is taking PMQs for the first time today. Up against Hilary Benn I believe.

  26. Colin

    You refer of course to Redruth, which is west of Truro, and thus in what we call ‘Beyond Cornwall’.

    Its a wild, wild place.

  27. As my uncle used to say: ‘they still point at planes down there’.

  28. MILLIE

    If you think Redruth is wild-you should try St. Just in Penwith :-)

    You’re uncle sounds like a typical up country person. They’m all brer daft.

  29. “A day of political games & posturing to which the average voter will say -“uh” ?”

    ————-

    Well there’s always le cricket. (Starts at 2pm…)

  30. “The NATs are annoyed – makes me :-)”

    Sounds like official Labour policy. Winning back no voters with said policy.

    :-)

  31. Good employment numbers-and earnings too.

  32. Why haven’t the results of the election and subsequent polls been added to the figures on the right of the Swingometer?
    I keep getting a Cons majority of 36 seats!

  33. Some analysis from Prof Curtice on Labour’s problems.

    “A defeat to reckon with: On Scotland, economic competence, and the complexities of Labour’s losses”

    http://www.ippr.org/juncture/a-defeat-to-reckon-with-on-scotland-economic-competence-and-the-complexities-of-labours-losses

  34. CHRIS GREEN
    If William Hague had hair like Elvis Presley, he would have beaten Blair. What other silly comments can we think of?

  35. Just registered as a labour supporter/ally/thingy to vote in the Leadership election. At the moment I’m leaning slightly towards Liz Kendall, but will keep my mind open for the time being. Only one I wouldn’t vote for is Yvette Cooper as to me she represents more of the same.

  36. Maninthemiddle -labour have announced today that registered supporters will be required to sign that you support the the aims and objectives of the party.

    I assume you havent had to do that today and will have to do it at the time of voting.?

  37. 07052015

    Nope didn’t have to sign anything, just pay £3, also gave my parents address in London so get to vote for London Mayoral candidate as well.

  38. Not a bad deal actually £3 for 3 votes. Could have got it cheaper if I registered as a Student Member, but I’m not ready to go that far, lets see who wins first

  39. Wow this debate is bad, as an ex labour voter, I can’t see any of these 4 winning a general election.

  40. 3 look right wing and out of touch, and 1 looks out of his depth. This Labour not a right wing party, or maybe…

  41. IMO:
    Yvette comes over as more competent than the others.

  42. They sound like the Tory party. I voted UKIP and am well off, but labour are now labour, yet poor on finances. I actually hate SNP on breaking up the union, but think they are right on equality.

  43. I’m sorry, the older guy won’t win sorry, but of the other 3, as an ex labour voter, the other 3 are worse than Ed miliband.

  44. Andy Burnham looks so miserable and bored. Bizarre

  45. The illuminating thing I’ve learned from this debate is that people think the person they already supported has done swimmingly.

  46. On the basis that Lab may be incapable of winning the next election whoever is in charge, there’s an argument to suggest that if you’re a leftwinger you should vote for Kendall (so the Blairites get the blame) and if you’re a right winger vote for Corbyn (so the left get the blame).

  47. All I can say is,.out of touch. I am slightly angry this is the best they have. Of the 3 I saw, ignoring Jeremy Corbin, Liz Kendal, IMO would do the best job.

  48. I suspect that there won’t be an ICM post debate snap poll. I doubt that they could find 1000 people that watched it if they spent a week phone canvassing.

  49. John J

    You’re allowed to support aspects of the policy that any party espouses, without signing up to all of it. :-)

    I don’t much like UKIP’s policy of “breaking up the union” (or any of their other policies for that matter) but “hating” them would seem an extravagant use of a very negative emotion.

    I agree with your 7:59 – “IMO would do the best job” – sounded a really good candidate – she was the one standing on the left of the screen? Right?

  50. “Andy Burnham looks so miserable and bored. Bizarre”

    ————

    He could cheer himself up and follow the cricket. Hell of a run chase going on. History being made: England have never played like this before. Maybe Tories will harvest some VI!!

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