The Guardian themselves seem to have put a pause on reporting their polls, but they are wisely continuing to commission their series of ICM/Guardian polls so as not to leave a gap in the data. Topline figures in the first post-election ICM poll are CON 37%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%. Tabs are here.

In terms of methodology ICM are using the same method as before the election – except, of course, that the data is weighted using people’s recall of their 2015 vote, not their 2010 vote. ICM’s tables make is abundently clear that is just a holding position, and that they are keeping their old method for the time being while they continue to investigate what went wrong and until they are sure of the right solution.


212 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 37, LAB 31, LDEM 8, UKIP 13, GRN 5”

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  1. @ Alec

    It could have been five, as for hours Martyn’s two posts sat there like orphan twins, and I was very tempted to write something, but I actually wrote about that ethnic poll a few weeks ago, so I just let the two posts to cook in “their bitter broth” (quotation from a Hungarian poem from about 1857 or so), but then they were rescued two more posts.

    Actually Martyn’s question would deserve an answer as he has a purpose there.

  2. It really fascinates me. I’m sure I typed “by two”, but then the “by” has gone …

    Maybe it is something to do with the old Manx poem about pelicans … “By”s are always lonely, like the Pelicans in the poem. Maybe not. Better stop my lateral thinking for today.

  3. Alec
    The paucity of postings on the previous thread says nothing about our attitude to the subject, and everything to do with 2 threads appearing on the same day. All the action takes place on the latest thread, therefore peeps won’t waste their time posting on an older one.

  4. OLDNAT

    @” (whatever the hell that bit of genetic nonsense is supposed to mean)-“Presumably there is a genetic mutation as people pass back and forward across Offa’s Dyke?”

    Ethnic identity isn’t a function of geography, and cannot be acquired( or lost) simply by moving place.

    Ethnic identity speaks to much deeper roots, which may not include genetic difference.( although it might-as for example unique haemaglobin levels resulting from high altitude adaptation in groups such as Tibetans; and the spread of lactose tolerance in humans, from cattle herding communities )

    Wiki seems a reasonable summary :-

    “An ethnic group or ethnicity is a socially defined category of people who identify with each other based on common ancestral, social, cultural or national experience.[1][2] Membership of an ethnic group tends to be defined by a shared cultural heritage, ancestry, origin myth, history, homeland, language and/or dialect, symbolic systems such as religion, mythology and ritual, cuisine, dressing style, physical appearance, etc.”

    The Han Chinese are suggested as the largest ethnic group ( by such definition)

    With regard the the Welsh-it is for them to say whether they have an ethnic identity, but I feel sure that they would point to a number of those markers identified by Wiki as proof that they do. Academics amongst them might point to Brythonic language, or the alleged high levels of Genetic marker R1b amongst the Welsh.

    But , I suppose,the existence of ethnic identity is ultimately attested where a particular group of people feel it & express it in their daily lives.

  5. @Colin

    This thread has expired and gone to meet…

    …just kidding Col., I liked your post, which raises a question. Can an ethnic identity evolve online. I mean, OK, maybe not geographically located in one place, but some of the other markers?

    I.e., are we becoming an ethnic group on this board?

  6. CARFREW
    :-)
    Hmmm-well -lets take that list of markers from Wiki.

    I think we can only be demonstrable said to share one of them-“origin myth”.

    ie-the myth that the origin of Election Results may be devined from preceding Opinion Polls.

    But I think this is slim evidence of a common ethnic identity.

    ……mass hallucination perhaps ?

  7. @Colin

    Well, I’ve been thinking about it, as you would expect, and it’s early days, but already found a few more. I mean, obviously we don’t all share the same interests (e.g. Thorium, tho’ there’s still time) , but road numbering schemes are quite popular, we’re already developing a folklore (including Alec’s “On this day” series, our own practices (shop at Lidl sometimes), have our own language (Polldrums etc.) etc., rituals and customs (the monthly exchanges on business sentiment and so forth…)

    And I think some people may be related. (Might even be the same person!!…)

  8. On, and I nearly forgot!! The physical appearance thing. Beards. Seem to be quite a few on here sporting them.

  9. Good morning all from what is to be a sunny and warm Mount Florida.
    …………

    OLDNAT
    Allan Christie
    My remaining breeks seem quite contented. During my period of ill-health, Mrs Nat consigned most of my gardening trousers to the charity shop shredder,
    As she described her decision “They no longer had the Gaelic” (translation – “The Erse wis oot o’ them”)
    ________

    It’s always good to start the morning with a giggle. lol :-)

  10. @COLIN

    A reasonable definition of ethnic identity.

    With respect to the inhabitants of Wales, their genetics suggest three distinct clusters, all of which are more closely related to each other than to the rest of the country, and that the Welsh today are probably closer to the original Britons than other British groups.

    http://www.peopleofthebritishisles.org/nl6.pdf

  11. CARFREW

    @Colin
    Can an ethnic identity evolve online. I mean, OK, maybe not geographically located in one place, but some of the other markers?
    I.e., are we becoming an ethnic group on this board?
    _______

    Yes we are and we can trace our roots back to the UKPR servers in 2005. We are a ethnic nerdy anorak lot (see wiki)

    “Ethnic Nerd (adjective: nerdy) is a descriptive term, often used pejoratively, indicating that a ethnic group are overly intellectual, obsessive, or socially impaired. They may spend inordinate amounts of time on unpopular, obscure, or non-mainstream activities, which are generally either highly technical or relating to topics of fiction or fantasy, to the exclusion of more mainstream activities”

    The last part is wrong because we do spend more time discussing sports than discussing nerdy sort of things but other than that it’s spot on. ;-)

  12. The hashtag “ToriesForCorbyn” seems to be going on Twitter – right-wingers joining Labour to vote for Corbyn and ruin the party. It’s stupid for three reasons:

    1. It means right wing people are giving Labour money.
    2. There are 240,000 proper Labour members, so a few hundred Tory anoraks on Twitter won’t make the slightest difference.
    3. This will likely drive more Labour supporters away from Corbyn than the aforementioned Tory anoraks could ever have added.

  13. FEWMET

    Thanks-most interesting.

    ALLAN

    Living where you do, you would certainly understand nerdy obsession with narrow concepts of national identity & constitutional minutae.

  14. Carfrew
    Re the ethnicity thing – we’re nearly all called Howard, does that count?

  15. If the reasons why the Pollsters underestimated the Tory lead by 6points have not been fully addressed surely we should be adding another 6 points to the Conservative lead.

  16. ICM was generally inclined to pitch Labour below other pollsters whilst putting the LibDems higher.

  17. @MrNameless – The Tories know that it will drive Labour electors away from Corbyn. They are terrified at the prospect of having to face a genuinely populist opponent.

  18. Chris Green
    How do Corbyn’s ideas compare to Michael Foot’s? If, as I believe, they’re pretty similar I don’t think the Tories will be terrified.

  19. Everybody knows Jeremy Corbyn has been given enough nominations so that he can stand and come nowhere, rather than be able to say he was shut out.

    Perhaps the more important point is that Labour have done nothing yet to recover from their General Election defeat, and neither have the other parties.

    I am inclined to wonder whether the most plausible alternative to the Conservatives in 2020 is some new party which does not yet exist.

    If some such party does come into being in the next two or three years, we are not going to need the Opinion Polls to tell us, any more than we needed them to tell us there was going to be an SNP landslide in Scotland.

  20. @Allan C

    “The last part is wrong because we do spend more time discussing sports than discussing nerdy sort of things but other than that it’s spot on. ;-)”

    ———–

    Well I might quibble a little there, we don’t spend nearly enough time talking cricket, as opposed to the best way to calculate swing back… I mean, we scored over 400 against NZ the other day and not a peep from anyone…

  21. @PETE B

    “Re the ethnicity thing – we’re nearly all called Howard, does that count?”

    ————

    Don’t see why not, ‘specially since Howards seem to !ike to travel a lot, so there’s shared custom and practice…

  22. @ Colin

    As I pointed it out “quite a few topics ago”, this (and all the most accepted definitions come from a pamphlet written in 1913, by a little known Georgian. He defined the nations as:

    “A nation is a stable community of people historically constituted through a lengthy course of systematic intercourse. This community of people shares a common language, a common territory, a common economic life, and a common psychological makeup manifested in a common culture.”

    The connections are quite clear (he developed this sentence, each part argued through a debate with Sprengler and Bauer) between the Wikipedia definition and that of this pamphlet.

    I always find it fascinating to see this.

    As to genetics … There is a general theoretical consensus of the common genetic stock for the Europeans, the variations are within homogeneity. Chines research (in particular in relation to the Han) is considered suspect (just as the Hungarian and Romanian), due to assumptions outside science (politics – the current president of the National Bank of Hungary intended to establish the (genetic) relations of the Japanese and the Hungarian, by referring the frequency of the appearance of a red spot on the southern side of the newly born baby – it is not a joke, I’m afraid).

  23. @Colin

    Excellent post on ethnicity.

    Apparently, there is no difference in blood types between Devonians and the Cornish. With Carfrew wanting to talk cricket, this common ethnic make-up bodes well for the proposed Devon and Cornwall joint team that the ECB wants to join the County Championship.

    Frankly, if they let us in, there is nothing to stop us.

  24. LASZLO

    Thanks

    I was refering to ethnic identity though -not nationhood.

    Nations , which are often artificial -and ephemeral-constructs can contain peoples of different ethnic identities. Lines on a map don’t define the borders of ethnic identity-as we see in our news bulletins every day.

    I only refered to genetics in response to a remark by OLDNAT.& to suggest that ethnic identity may not rest on genetic difference alone.

    Human genetic diversity decreases as one leaves the African Homeland. All non-African populations are more closely related to each other than to Africans; ( Cavalli-Sforza)

    But, as I mentioned, humans are no less subject to adaptive genetic changes which are advantageous , than any other species.

  25. MILLE

    Thanks-did you read the PBI material that FEWMET posted-fascinating.

    Sounds like you hail from the SW-where abouts?

  26. New Statesman looking at party memberships this week.

    In an early article they focus on LiS.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/no-members-no-money-why-going-it-alone-more-difficult-route-scottish-labour-you

    Fewer than 13,000 people are members of the Labour Party in Scotland. Just eight Scottish constituency Labour parties have more members than there in Northern Ireland, where the party does not stand and where membership was prohibited until 2004.

    The membership figures, which predate the post-election surge in membership, slightly underestimates membership figures in the North-East, Wales and London, where the surge is concentrated, but overestimates membership in Scotland, where numerous members have defected to the SNP. One constituency chair says that “direct debit cancellations outnumber new members by two to one”.

    Although Labour membership in Scotland is slightly higher in terms of raw numbers than either the East Midlands or the East of England, where the party performs poorly in national elections, and is ahead of the relative strongholds of Wales and the North East, they underperform both areas heavily on a per head basis. Wales and the North East have more Labour members per person than anywhere outside London. Scotland, in contrast, is ahead only of the East of England, where Labour has just two MPs.

    Sounds like the debate on whether LiS should transmogrify into SLab is a bit pointless, with insufficient cash or members.

  27. Old Nat

    A rather curious statement at the end of that article for which you gave a link.-

    One senior Labour staffer in London points out that “in 2000, the SNP had no members, no money and no real hope – look at them now”.

    Presumably the SNP’s 6 MPs, 2 MEPs, and 201 councillors holding office at that time were all members…

    Perhaps our senior Labour staffer should do his homework a bit more thoroughly before attempting to draw on history for lessons on how to turn round the dire situation of LiS.

  28. 27 Tory rebels on the abolition of purdah for the EUref should have meant that the proposition fell.

    Labour’s new abstention policy means it passed. Seems an odd way for the supposed official Opposition to behave.

  29. The purdah rebels (according to Labour sources) include the usual suspects:

    The 25 MPs who rebelled.

    Adam Afriyie
    Richard Bacon
    John Baron
    Bill Cash
    Philip Davies
    Nadine Dorries
    Richard Drax
    Liam Fox
    Cheryl Gillan
    Zac Goldsmith
    Philip Hollobone
    Gerald Howarth
    Stewart Jackson
    Bernard Jenkin
    David Jones
    Edward Leigh
    Tim Loughton
    Stephen McPartland
    Anne Main
    David Nuttall
    Owen Paterson
    John Redwood
    Andrew Rosindell
    Bob Stewart
    Andrew Turner

    And the two tellers.

    Steve Baker
    Christopher Chope

  30. “With Carfrew wanting to talk cricket…”

    ———-

    Obviously I realise it shouldn’t dominate the board and stuff, not like Scotland for eggers, it’s just that a few days ago England scored over 400 runs, against the World Cup runners up I might add, and we’ve been scoring over 300 ever since. Which is a bit like SNP cleaning up in Scotland.

    Also, cricket is the perfect sport for peeps into Stats. I’m amazed AW doesn’t link to Wisden on his site…

  31. @Carfrew

    Of course there is a massive correlation between England doing well and Yorkshire doing well.

    I ran the data through my statistical tests, and I can report they concluded Yorkshire are bl**dy brilliant.

  32. CMJ @ Carfrew

    There also seems to be a remarkable positive correlation between England’s sporting success and Labour avoiding voting against the Tory government.

    Is this a diabolical piece of Labour double bluff? If they don’t oppose the Tories, then England fans will vote Labour out of gratitude.

    Typical behaviour from these ethnic socialists. :-)

  33. Oh look the NATs are upset because Labour didn’t vote with them. :-)

  34. The vote was about purdah up to the referendum itself.

    Do Labour

    a) think purdah rules should be in place
    b) think purdah rules should not be in place

    or

    c) have no view?

    It would appear the correct answer is c).

  35. The day-to-day politics so far in Westminster would seem to indicate the Conservatives or Labour will do very little in the way of voting with the SNP.

    I hope this atmosphere improves.

  36. @oldnat

    “There also seems to be a remarkable positive correlation between England’s sporting success and Labour avoiding voting against the Tory government.”

    ————-

    Yes, jolly good, let’s try and keep the political agendas out of the sport as much as posts., there’s a good man.

  37. @Colin

    “Human genetic diversity decreases as one leaves the African Homeland. All non-African populations are more closely related to each other than to Africans; ( Cavalli-Sforza)”

    Humans outside Africa include Neanderthal DNA whereas pure Africans do not.

  38. @Catman

    “Of course there is a massive correlation between England doing well and Yorkshire doing well.

    I ran the data through my statistical tests, and I can report they concluded Yorkshire are bl**dy brilliant.”

    ————

    But England keep snaffling the players, including Rashid now…

  39. (…as much as posts = as much as poss…)

  40. @Carfrew

    It comes with the territory.

    At least we kept Gillespie.

  41. LizH

    I posited some time back that the future of politics would be as dependent on the way that the parties fought their campaigns in the EUref, as on the final result.

    Governments will, inevitably, get round some of the purdah rules in a referendum. Adam Boulton on Sky tonight pointed out that Cameron had done that during the indyref.

    However, abandoning even the pretence that the Civil Service should be impartial during a referendum seems an extremely unwise move, as well as constitutionally and morally reprehensible.

    From what I’ve seen on social media “the NATS” aren’t “upset”, but either annoyed at Labour’s dereliction on an important principle, or making mileage out of it (or both!).

  42. Colin
    Fewmet

    Thanks Colin for drawing attention to Fewmet’s post and the fascinating PoBI study. A real breakthrough I would say – very interesting about the previously unknown pre-Roman French ‘invasion’.

    And for me, the really interesting bit was the independent genetic clustering of Devon and Cornwall – completely contrary to what I thought ( or rather had been told ).

    The sharp county-defined genetic boundaries are confirmed by my own family who have lived all over East Devon for centuries, but have never once ventured across the border into Dorset.

  43. @OLDNAT

    The NATs are annoyed – makes me :-)

  44. @Catman

    “At least we kept Gillespie.”

    ————

    True, Dizzy stays. (For now…)

    (Don’t suppose it could work the other way and you could take one or two England players from other counties off our hands…)

  45. @lizh

    “Oh look the NATs are upset because Labour didn’t vote with them. :-)”

    ———–

    Well it somewhat undermines dreams of holding the balance of power, the Scots jig thing…

  46. Millie

    The Great Devonian Controversy exercised many scholars in the 19th century.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Devonian_Controversy

    The discovery of Devonian characteristics in Russia, however, permanently ended claims of Devonian ethnic purity and distinctiveness.

    That there is no Dorsetian era in geologic history effectively demonstrates that they failed the critical evolutionary test.

  47. CHRIS GREEN
    You are having a larf. I do not know which ethnic group you and Corbyn belong to, but I suspect the life form hails from planet Zaar. I hope and pray Labour go for Corbyn, it will be the end of Labour if they do.

  48. @CARFREW

    Coming down to earth is going to be a difficult adjustment for them.

  49. LizH

    As long as you are happy with your understanding of the world, then all will be well in that world.

  50. “I do not know which ethnic group you and Corbyn belong to, but I suspect the life form hails from planet Zaar”

    ———

    Well at least they’re not emissaries from the planet Miliband is said to have hailed from!!

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