TNS Holyrood poll

TNS have released what I think is the first Scottish voting intention poll since the election. Prior to May Scottish polls concentrated on Westminster voting intentions (though many asked both Westminster and Holyrood), the focus now shifts over to Holyrood intentions ahead of next May’s election.

Voting intentions for Holyrood in the TNS poll are:
Constituency: CON 15%, LAB 19%, LDEM 3%, SNP 60%
Regional: CON 14%, LAB 19%, LDEM 5%, SNP 50%, GRN 10%

This is a big increase for the SNP on top of the 45% they received at the 2011 election where they won a majority in a electoral system designed to avoid them. These figures would only build upon it. Note also the dire state of Labour’s Scottish support, just four points ahead of the Conservatives, who are marginally up on their 2011 performance.

Full tables are here


115 Responses to “TNS Holyrood poll”

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  1. @07052015

    “…W[h]ere you there then martyn ?…”

    Yes. I was in the cupboard under the sink. Making “whoooo-whooo-I’m-a-pigeon” noises.

    Or perhaps not.

  2. “Now now you’re posturing. ;-)”

    —————-

    Why are you even bothering with peeps’ posture when Martyn says he isn’t sure if he’s a pigeon or not.

  3. “I see an ‘influential’ tory group are suggesting some benefits be made ‘loans’”

    ———

    Can we do that with MPs’ expenses?

  4. Paul Rochester and Strood

    “Scottish Ref” – Did you mean “Scottish election”?

    The EUref is scheduled to take place by the end of 2017 IIRC.

    In May 2016, 16-17 year olds will be enfranchised for the Holyrood elections.

    In May 2017, 16-17 year old s will be enfranchised for the Scottish Local elections.

    Whenever the EURef takes place 16-17 year olds will be on the register for Scottish elections, but disenfranchised for the Westminster run EUref.

    I’d suggest that that reality will make them less inclined to vote Tory in the elections in Scotland.

  5. @Carfrew

    I am entirely sure I am not a pigeon.

  6. OldNat. No, the point I was making is that the 16/17 year olds that were all enfranchised for the Scottish Referendun will have all reached 18 by the time of the EU Ref. I heard someone making the point that it will be hard to say to people that could vote in the Scottish Ref but would not be able to vote in the EU Referendum.

  7. @Martyn

    “I am entirely sure I am not a pigeon.”

    ————

    Oh, ok, must be Allan then. And get out from under the sink…

  8. Jamie reed says labour and libdems should merge.

  9. Paul Rochester and Strood

    Thanks. Whoever said that was either meaning that similar people (16-17 year olds and EU citizens) might be disappointed that they are to be excluded from the EUref when their kind had been allowed to vote in the indyref – or they just have a very poor understanding of the aging process, as you point out. :-)

  10. Sunreada

    Jamie Reed – the MP or the footballer? (I had heard of neither till your post)

  11. Is there a reason why the age cut-off for young voter suffrage should be 16? Why not 13?

  12. Neil A

    Any cut-off age is arbitrary, and you could argue for a variety of specific ages at which people should become entitled to vote – or cease to be eligible to vote.

    I couldn’t vote till I was 21. When 18 year olds became entitled to vote, many decried this enfranchisement of teenagers.

    16 is the age when people move from the legal status of “child” to “young person”, so it’s a rational point of transition.

    Perhaps, in the future, 13 year olds may be considered mature enough to consent to sex – as they could in England prior to 1875 – and some may argue that such a change would be relevant. Seems unlikely though.

  13. While there is a new thread (on which my post has stayed in splendid isolation for hours) it’s worth puttimng on here that John Curtice has a blog on this poll.

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/06/and-so-our-eyes-turn-to-may-2016/

    He makes the point that polls have traditionally over-estimated the difference between the constituency and list votes for the SNP. Extrapolations from this poll may, therefore, under-estimate the number of SNP List MSPs.

    One likely reason for this discrepancy is that many voters are not aware of how the Scottish Parliament’s two-vote system works and when suddenly asked by a pollster how they will vote on two different ballots they presume they cannot vote the same way twice. As a result when asked how they will vote on the list ballot paper they state a second preference. If so, then it suggests that during the next twelve months the pollsters need to give careful consideration to how they ask people their list vote (which after all is often called the ‘second vote’), and try to find wordings that minimise the risk that their respondents offer a second preference.

  14. @Oldnat,

    Not sure about Scotland, by in England and Wales, “Young Person” begins at 14.

  15. Also, 16 years olds are not considered old enough to consent to sex. Only old enough to consent to sex in certain proscribed circumstances (again, not sure about Scotland).

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