Just a quick line to point out that the Constituency guide part of the site has now been updated to reflect the general election results and the new MPs elected, including the target and defence lists for the parties (SNP and UKIP to follow). Before anyone points it out there’s still lots to do – including new swingometers and updating MPs profiles to reflect the reshuffles.


345 Responses to “Constituency Guide update”

1 2 3 4 7
  1. OLD NAT
    I am suggesting that Labour in Scotland elect the son of Sherpa Tensing as leader. The man, whom I have not had the honour to meet, is a friend of my son in Nepal. He in my considered opinion is the only climber of adequate talent and knowledge to help. The trouble is, he thinks like a Tory.

  2. Roly

    He sounds like an excellent suggestion for leader of LiS.

    Thinking like a Tory will make a nice change from those predecessors who acted like Tories without doing much in the way of thinking.

  3. I like UKElect/TimBick

    But I like UKPollingReport/AnthonyWells too…

    Which is better? There’s only one way to find out: Fight

  4. BBC QT – 40% of the panel went to the same private school – but only 20% of them vomited onto Ruth Davidson’s shoes!

  5. Despite the chorus of pundits displaying certainty that the first estimate of GDP of 0.3% would be raised in this months revisions, it hasn’t been. Instead, it remains the same, with weaker than expected service sector growth and very poor trade deficit figures weighing down on growth.

    The UK motor industry seems to be something of a model here. Production down in April, as better domestic sales were offset by sharp reductions in exports.

    Three quarters of UK sales are on finance deals.

    What have we learned since 2007?

  6. If one thinks our polling is in doubt here, there is a very strange poll published by le Figaro today on EU. 62% would vote against an EU constitution toady as opposed to 55% when they actually voted 10 years ago. On the other hand, they are in favour of control over each state’s budgets by a EU president and Finance minister (62% and 59%) and 71% are against a Euro EZ exit. The same percentage 71% actually wants an EU Army! 62% think membership of the EU is a good thing.

    What can one make of all that? (Rhetorical Q but i thought it was an interesting poll).

  7. @ Martyn

    Actually … Your second link doesn’t work.

  8. @Laszlo

    You’re right. I don’t know why it doesn’t work.

  9. @ Martyn

    I don’t know because I’m on IPad at this hour of the night, and still haven’t figured out how to see the coding/source of the page. The code must be OK, maybe there’s a missing element – file name perhaps?

  10. @ Roland

    son of Sherpa Tensing as leader

    I assume you meant Tenzing. As his son died when he was four, I very much doubt that your son could develop a particularly strong opinion of his attachment to Conservative values.

    If you mean his grandson, he looks like an interesting character. I took some interest in it, because Tenzing Norgay’s memoirs were translated to Hungarian and as a child I read it with awe, and really hoped that he was the first to put his boot on the summit of Chomolungma.

  11. @Laszlo

    Right-click,[1] select “view source” or variant thereof. I did that and it appears the “a” tag is missing its “href=” parameter, so it has nowhere to link to. Lacking the ability to edit my posts, I can’t fix it.

    [1] I don’t know if that works with iPads

  12. @ Chrislane

    I don’t think LK would have very much chance of winning in 2020 because she will find it very difficult to unite the party behind the prescriptions she has in mind. She is not a natural unifier and I fear she would follow the Blair line of running against her own party a lot of the time. That may have worked then, but it surely won’t now!

    On the Survation EU poll – that’s actually quite close. My assumption has always been that the gap will widen as the poll gets closer but maybe on the basis of the Scottish referendum, we should expect the reverse to happen. Can and antis mount the type of insurgent campaign run by the SNP, I wonder. I doubt it to be honest.

  13. ‘Can the antis mount the type of insurgent campaign run by the SNP, I wonder. I doubt it to be honest.’

  14. CATMANJEFF

    As said many times before, it’s what the voters perceive that matters, and the voters perceive that there has been a vote on proportional representation and it failed. End of story.

  15. CMJ
    TOH

    Here’s the proposal for electoral reform from the Liberal Party ( not the Lib Dems ):

    The solution is simple: existing single member constituencies need to be swept away and replaced by multi-member constituencies returning 4 or 5 MP’s. Each constituency would be based on natural communities, rather than unnatural constituencies that happen to be the right size to return one MP. Moreover, electors would no longer vote with an inflexible “X” – the mark of illiteracy – but would number their candidates in order of preference and the ballot would be counted in a way that would ensure that their votes would be utilised as fully as possible. This system, known as the Single Transferable Vote (STV), would be used for all elections to public office, and is favoured by Liberals because of the greater choice and empowerment given to voters, and because it does not require formal party political structures to function. STV delivers proportional representation of people as opposed to mere proportional representation of parties brought about by party list and hybrid top up systems which Liberals oppose. The Liberal Party therefore calls for the introduction (before the next general election) of the single transferable vote in multimember constituencies based on utilising current city, unitary authority and county boundaries

  16. NEW FOREST RADICAL.
    Good Morning to you; very cold down here today is it not?

    I think Liz K may well do well in polling terms since her Party may be ready to be led into more uncomfortable territory than Ed M was able to do.
    Time will tell; maybe Yvette Cooper will beat Andy B.

  17. @Martyn

    No choice/fight is necessary – I like UK Polling Report as well, and have great admiration for Anthony’s work!

    (In fact, the UK-Elect software contains links to this excellent site, including the constituency guide section.)

    But here’s another map anyway – Most significant “Swing To” at GE2015

    You may have seen that map before, but I find it interestingly varicoloured.

  18. My feeling is that if LK becomes leader of the Labour Party, it will lose a lot of its active members, either through actual resignations or just not bothering to turn out to work for the party any more.

    Whether there might be enough new members willing to take their place is another matter, but I doubt it.

  19. NORBOLD.
    Thank you for your interesting comment on Liz K with regard to ‘party’ members; maybe they are content with things as they are; on twitter many of them are attacking ‘Labour Voters’ for not voting, or going UKIP or Tory.

  20. The big advantage the yes side has in the EU referendum (that the unionists didn’t have in the Scottish referendum) is that you don’t have a lot of unpopular high profile politicians droning on about how great the ‘union’ is and how disastrous ‘independence’ would be. At least not yet.

    This is almost the polar opposite of the 1975 scenario, when most of the leading politicians were popular and a sceptical public followed their lead.

    There has been a big increase in yes support over the last couple of years when politicians have said very little in support of the EU. Will the politicians pay attention to this? I doubt it.

  21. Good morning all from Mount Florida.

    Had a lovely few days down in Frome visiting my daddy’s mammy.
    Think that should be the granny tour completed for this year. It’s really not for the fainthearted.
    ……..
    Now…”. Before anyone points it out there’s still lots to do – including new swingometers and updating MPs profiles to reflect the reshuffles”
    ____

    Can you mind and use the correct colour of crayons when colouring in Scotland?

    Thanks.

  22. @UKElect

    Nice plots, but the images are oddly sized. My browser tells me they are 800px wide and 600px high — perhaps these were supposed to be the other way round?

  23. NORBOLD & CHRISLANE

    Labour should sort out their seating arrangements in the Commons before they elected a new leader, that way he/she will know where to sit. ;-)

    I can’t help but notice the SNP’ MP for Dundee West (Chris Law) makes Dennis Skinner look tiny when he sits next to him in the chamber.

  24. @New Forest Radical

    I doubt it too. Mainly because unless Cameron spectacularly fails to achieve a remotely acceptable renegotiation and campaigns for out the Out campaign will be made up of polarising figures who won’t be trusted by waverers or encourage a popular mobilisation. Even the more mainstream likely outers – Owen Paterson, Liam Fox, Kate Hoey – are unlikely to be able to convince voters that they are right and Cameron, whoever the Labour leader is and the SNP are all wrong. I can’t see it even being like 1975 when reasonably respected cabinet members in Tony Benn and Michael Foot campaigned against Wilson’s position. I therefore expect a similar result to 1975 though the geography of it is likely to be contrasting – Scotland was the least strongly for membership then with Surrey, West Sussex and North Yorkshire the most favourable with an over 75% endorsement.

  25. I am convinced and fear it would be a no, a vote to leave. The presence of Farrage will led to a huge turnout in strong no areas where UKIP do well. The casual bigotry that he would speak will motivate a lot more people than it would repeal.
    Scotland could turn quite nasty through if the UK vote to leave but Scotland vote to stay. Independence would be inevitable.

  26. BM

    I don’t think for a second the UK will vote to leave the EU but if it does and Scotland voted to stay in then that would chuck up a very interesting scenario.

    During the Scottish indy ref voters were told that Scotland would need to reapply for EU membership if they voted for independence and even at that they were told their application stood a good chance of being vetoed by the likes of Spain who have parts of their country who would like to give Madrid the boot and might cause a domino effect.

    So the No side won yet the biggest threat to Scotland staying in the EU appears to be by staying in the UK.

    What Cameron has to remember is that is 37% mandate only applies to England when he struts about the EU giving the impression that we all love him back in the UK.

    What his EU in out shake it all about referendum will probably end up doing is splitting the Tory party right down the middle when the UK votes to stay in which I’m extremely confident that it will although at the moment I would probably vote to get out

    So Cameron faces the prospect of a Tory party imploding in the event of staying in the EU and the prospect of the UK breaking up if its a Yes vote.

    Blimey, I think I would rather be in opposition!!

  27. @bm11

    There is another scenario that might also not go down very well in some quarters. What if England voted narrowly for No, but the combined votes from Scotland, Wales and NI are sufficient to turn the UK result into a narrow victory for Yes?

  28. I am surprised at the amount of posters who think the ‘Yes’ cazmpaign will win the referendum, indeed very surprised. This is not a ‘talking heads’ vote whereby people will vote by tribal instinct but rather something deeper, this is where the people will be asked:

    a) If they want to be continually and increasingly from a foreign country?
    b) If they want to be ruled by faceless bureacrats?
    c) If they think they and the UK are strong enough to fend for themselves or are the weak and need help from the French, Germans, etc.?

    I think that national identity within the public will grow phenomenally between now and the referendum. Added to this will be the continuation of the Greek debacle, the decline in the Euro, the growth of anti-EU parties and feelings in other EU countries, the continued scare tactics of the ‘Yes’ campaign supporters (which will likely start to backfire with time as they are a negative argument), and of course the continual deminishing % of our exports that go to the EU. Finally, there will be the continuing and ever growing question of why the UK should continue to contribute so much to other EU countries via payments to the EU whilst at home we undergo austerity of our own services.

    For the above reasons I foresee the polls narrowing and finally crossing over either before the day of the referendum or at the referendum itself. I think the likelihood is that the outcome will be a win for the ‘No’ campaign.

  29. Quite possible solution but Northern Ireland could be quite divided. Unionists seem strongly no while republicans strongly yes. So it could be a no there as well.

  30. So agree with you Bill regarding the outcome. I cant see a yes vote to stay as much as it pains me to say this.. Through it will be close and Scotland will vote yes.

  31. @BM11

    I don’t agree. UKIP’s increased prominence since 2012 has already led to a polarising effect in polling figures on EU membership and I see no reason why that won’t continue or even increase. 20% of people like Farage, 80% don’t. And those that don’t don’t want to side with him. That has led lots of Middle England, Tory-voting waverers, to become more favourable towards membership than they were before. Lots of people that are soft-sceptics also say that they don’t know much about Europe and the case for staying in. That will change during the campaign.

    It seems to me highly likely that leaving the EU would break up the union. Scots aren’t actually as wildly pro-European as their political leaders make out but the SNP would take the mandate for a snap referendum and have every chance of winning. This very fact could favour yes, however. Most people in England want the union to stay together and if this becomes a factor will probably take it into account.

    We are, of course, still a union and I personally think that taking the votes of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland separately is therefore a nonsense. If Scotland votes a different way from elsewhere that should matter no more than if Cornwall, Merseyside or East Anglia did. However, as I say the SNP’s stance will make Scotland a factor.

  32. I think it very unlikely DC will get very much of substance from the E.U. in the relatively short time before the referendum is due. (Even if there were longer I doubt he could get very much)
    I also think DC will still be campaigning for a yes vote and the country will vote yes to staying in

  33. James Morrison

    That was why I quoted the French EU poll. The electorate, as on everything, is fed a diet of what is supposed to be the case in other countries with the general message of ‘me-tooism’ – in this case, all countries are fed up with the EU, even France, which this poll debunks..

    I read the neighbour country press on the net More or less every day,and I have developed a very jaundiced view of how our electorate is informed, about nearly every topic of international significance. All right, we all hate Sepp Blatter, that is a ‘given’, but on substantial issues, our news reporting is unbelievably parochial, naive, or insular.

    OK in an opinion column, of course, but not OK when reporting news.

  34. AW

    Can I just say how much I and hopefully everyone else appreciates the time you have put into updating the UKPR Constituency guide!!

    It’s great to have all the stats etc at your fingertips and for political anoraks like all of us it’s like Christmas has come early. :-)

    However I did leave a couple of comments on the (Banff & Buchan) (Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale) seats and both my comments went into moderation. Any chance of releasing them?

  35. I could imagine England is less pro-union than it was a few months ago. The SNP stories probably make many people wish Scotland bugged off. This feeling will continue more and more as the press go on.
    I wonder what the press will do regarding the referendum. The Mirror and Guardian certainly yes. Express and star certainly no. Sun and the Mail not sure. Telegraph seems to leading Yes. Times will probably go yes as well as that is what its readers will be generally. Could the English sun back no while the SNP supporting Scottish Sun goes for yes.

  36. @NeilJ

    I don’t know. He clearly won’t get a package that can entirely satisfy Eurosceptics, both in his own party and outside. Whatever happens UKIP will suggest it was a botched renegotiation that shows you can’t achieve much in Europe and Cameron’s actions don’t match his rhetoric. But I do think other European leaders want Britain to stay and would be prepared to let Britain have a different relationship with the EU than other members in order to achieve that. He may be able to negotiate something that at least gives the appearance of being fairly substantial.

    If it only fails to satisfy UKIP and the hard Eurospectics within his party – Cash, Bone, Davies, etc. – then I don’t think he has a problem as they were always going to be on the No campaign. If it also fails to satisfy Fox, Paterson etc. then he’s got a bit of a problem but will probably still win. The real difficulty would be if ministers such as IDS and Grayling who were wavering decided the renegotiation wasn’t up to it and caused the party to split in half over the issue with the out half effectively blaming Cameron for not getting the deal.

  37. @ChrisLane, Norbold

    I agree with Norbold. I rarely bother with Twitter, but what I got from ‘Labour’ voters on the doorstep was either, “Yes, of course we’ll vote Labour” or “Labour no longer cares about people like us for reasons of housing/immigration/wages so I don’t know what I will do – maybe not bother or go with UKIP”
    Not many round here went with UKIP and sufficient bothered to give us a narrow victory but that was as a result of (inter alia) a very intense campaign by a large number of very committed people, including many from surrounding Tory/LD constituencies where there was no hope for Lab.
    Of course, 5 years of pure Tory rule may define the battle lines even more clearly next time but my worry is that with Liz K I and fellow travellers might start agreeing (Horror of Horrors) with OldNat, that ‘they’re both the same’

  38. @JACK SHELDON

    Agree with that and as you say he was never going to get enough to satisfy the Eurosceptics you mention, who really want out but would go for a free trade agreement and do away with the rest of the E.U. That was never going to happen and Cameron was never even going to try for it.
    I do find it hard to see anything substantial can be got without a Treaty change, we have seen in the past with the Constitution/Lisbon Treaty, that took the best part of ten years. There is no appetiite in Europe for a re-run of that.
    He will also not ask for and even if he did would not get any direct power to restrict migration from the E.U.
    So he is left with trying to restrict benefits to E.U. citizens who come here. He may get a few things on out of work benefits, but I think changes to in-work benefits are unlikely to be agreed, Poland have already made this clear.
    He may get an opt out for the UK on the subject of ‘ever closer union’, but even that is not certain.
    I still suspect though he will push to stay in the E.U. and the public will vote to stay in. If that happens it may lance the boil in the Conservative Party and most conservative M.P.’s will probably fall into line. although some may not be very happy

  39. Some will remember 1975 -I was at college and argued with a mate all the time about the EEC .

    At the outset I was in favour of remaining and he was against (just as I thought limited overs cricket was ruining the england test team but he thought it was overseas players).But in the end I voted to come out as I saw who was in favour and he dd the opposite !!!.But immigration hardly featured ,it seemed to me it was all about standards of living in the capitalist club.

    Anyway having moved to the progressive capital of england we have had a succession of visitors and the EU issue has come up -and I conclude there is a massive latent No vote powered by anti immigrant sentiment in England .I have been shocked by the number of people who hold these views.

    So getting the crystal ball out.

    England will be close maybe very close .NI will be 50-50 (it was very close in 1975),Scotland might get over 60 per cent Yes ,wales approaching it.

    Uk could be 45 per cent No and we know what that means about whether issues go away or not.

  40. MILLIE

    Personally I am not interested in PR as i am very happy with FPTP. The point i was making above is that the voters appear to be as well.

  41. The BBC is reporting that legal papers are about to be filed in Edinburgh by campaigners seeking to unseat Alistair Carmichael.

  42. I only joined Labour in 2010 but if LK becomes leader I will join the disillusioned group of people who don’t vote for any party.

  43. @Norbold
    “My feeling is that if LK becomes leader of the Labour Party, it will lose a lot of its active members, either through actual resignations or just not bothering to turn out to work for the party any more.”

    Absolutely.

  44. @TOH

    Personally I am not interested in PR as i am very happy with FPTP. The point i was making above is that the voters appear to be as well.

    The referendum on AV was not a vote on PR. In fact, AV can be more disproportionate than FPTP.

    Also, it was years ago. Since then we have had an election when 3.9m UKIP voters have been short changed, 1.2m Greens and the Labour Party lost all but one seat in Scotland while taking one out of every four votes.

    FPTP has short changed more people than every before. Things have changed.

    I think if the public were asked how much they like FPTP, the answer now would be much different.

  45. After the Burnham press conf today there is now a growing consensus amongst the candidates – labour is to be pro business and support the £23k welfare cap.

    All they disagree about is whether labour spent too much (yes Lk and AB ,no YC ).

    Language is all important in politics -frankly the analysis so far is superficial and symbolic -they should just say labour is pro growth and borrowed too much and lets move on .

    I wont be leaving whoever gets elected but I have seen many go,come back ,go comeback.

    Maybe old vince,shirley,dr david will rejoin as others depart .I see degsy has tried to re-enter.Its a broad church said david tennant.

    On the EU vote in NI ,2011 census had protestants on 48 per cent ,catholics on 45 ,the gap continuing to narrow .Crossover might have happened by the next census with obvious consequences.

  46. @Catmanjeff

    I don’t. OK, UKIP’s plight means a few more Mail/Express readers want a different system than did in 2011. Green voters probably voted for AV anyway if they voted at all. Electoral reform has always been a cause of minorities not served well by PR, politics departments and left-wing think tanks and I see no reason for that to have changed now. People like the simplicity of everybody putting one cross in the box and the person with the most crosses winning. Polls also shows that Britain still doesn’t particularly care for coalitions.

  47. @Jack Sheldon

    Without PR, the Conservatives would be dead in Scotland.

    PR at Holyrood saved them.

  48. @Catmanjeff

    I don’t disagree. Doesn’t mean Britain wants PR though perhaps Scottish Tories do.

  49. My original post was meant to say ‘minorities not served well by FPTP’, obviously. Oh for an edit button.

  50. If the Uk goes federal then the voting systems for the Uk parliament and an english devolved institution will be up for grabs.Otherwise I wouldnt expect any suggestion of change before 2020.

    What might have been as you would think EM would have offered PR for local.government in england to the libdems in the event of a hung parliament.

    Cooper will be totally opposed to PR as Balls was.This is a red line for labours hard right.

    I would think Kendall would be considerably more open minded( Hewitt her mentor was a supporter )but I have no evidence for saying what Burnham thinks one way or the other.

    Its quite important to know before the leadership election -labour has a mountain to climb and at the moment a hung parliament looks like the best labour can aspire to.

1 2 3 4 7