A few people have asked me if I know where there is a spreadsheet of the general election results available so they can crunch the numbers and explore results themselves. Until now I’ve been using results scraped off the BBC website, but the British Election Study team have now released a data set of the election results for download here.


420 Responses to “Spreadsheet of the General Election Results”

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  1. If the Labour Party adopted the Conservative manifesto and persuaded David Cameron to lead them, would that make you happy, Roly?

  2. 07052015
    But if all we have to worry about is a Frank Sidebottom look alike, it doesn’t matter which one of the people you mention is our leader.

  3. @NORBOLD
    It would not, but then it is not me you need to convince. It is Shaun and Kelly in Thurrock. If another of the same ilk wants to take us back to the 1970’s, we will have the same conversation in 10 years time.
    (If the Lord spares me.)

  4. Ok roly bring it on

  5. On voter registration It’s been said for a long time that there was a ton of voting fraud going on so maybe it was all true.

    @@@

    “The odd thing is people by a margin of over 20% think the economy is going well, but by a margin of 10% expect their own financial situation to get worse over the next 12 months. Curious.”

    Not odd. “The economy” is a national scale thing. If the media say raw GDP going up is a measure of the national economy doing well and most people don’t know any different then they’ll say “the economy” is doing well.

    As raw GDP going up on its own *isn’t* a measure of the economy doing well it’s not surprising they don’t see the benefit locally.

    It’s like if the weather report says it’s going to be sunny everywhere except where you live. How are people going to know any different. If you ask them they’ll say yeah it’s sunny everywhere else but here.

    @@

    “I did not think the polls were that wrong, they got it bang on in Scotland and forecast Labours strong performance in London and Wales as well as the steep decline of the LibDems.”

    If you include Scotland the whole election was pretty much all about ethnicity / identity but the political class don’t want to admit it.

  6. If we’re comparing leaders, I hope I’m not the first to notice Tim Farron really resembles Charlie Brown.

  7. I’m not saying I agree with any of Roly’s posts tonight but he has got me rolling about laughing with some of his comments.
    ……

    “But if all we have to worry about is a Frank Sidebottom look alike”
    __

    Chuckle……

    Anyway I’m off for an early night. Visiting ma mammy’s mammy in Southern Italy tomorrow for two weeks. Hopefully when I get back the weather here will have improved.

    See you in two weeks!!

  8. Dont sleep with fishes AC

  9. Good Evening All.

    CANDY: Hello to you. These are not easy days for some, but these days will pass; the first will be last and the last will be first, one day.

    I cannot see anyone meeting Andy Burnham. Perhaps he will heed the advice Nixon gave himself: run hard to the right when running for the nomination, and then as hard to the left when running for President.

  10. AC

    Have fun.

  11. ALLAN CHRISTIE
    Visiting ma mammy’s mammy in Southern Italy tomorrow for two weeks.

    Have fun and enjoy the bargain priced Primitivo. Arrivederci!

  12. New poll on Scottish independence by Survation for British Future, with tables promised tomorrow.

    In the medium term, Scotland remains a 50/50 nation – with 52% believing independence will happen in the next decade.

    The English, however, are more pessimistic about the future of the Union, with 43% thinking that Scotland is likely to break away in the next five years and a majority (59%) believing it will become independent by 2025. Many, it seems, have watched the SNP landslide result on election night and concluded that Scotland is already lost.

    See http://www.britishfuture.org/articles/scots-still-5050-on-independence/

  13. I wonder how many percent that poll is out by?

  14. BZ

    And on a UK constitutional settlement Three quarters (73%) of respondents in Scotland agreed that “a new government should now come up with a new constitutional settlement for the UK that offers significant powers to the nations and regions of the UK,” while only 13% said that “the new government should not offer significant further powers to the nations and regions of the UK.

    In the rest of Britain the responses were quite different. Only 48% of people in England agree that Scotland should be offered more powers, with a quarter (26%) against the idea and another 26% undecided, saying they don’t know.”

  15. Has anyone looked at Labour and Conservative vote by seats previously held?

    My observation, just anecdotal at this stage, is that the Labour and Conservative incumbency vote went up in some seats quite considerably.

    It would be extremely difficult for pollsters to catch that in their findings, especially at samples as low as 1,000 for the entire UK.

    I also have some questions around what constitutes turnout to vote. In Patcham, in Brighton and Hove, in Brighton Pavillion where I was working the turnout is described on the public website as 73.49% and the number of registered voters as 11,322:

    http://www.brighton-hove.gov.uk/content/council-and-democracy/voting-and-elections/brighton-hove-city-council-election-may-2015

    But if you look at:

    http://present.brighton-hove.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=127&RPID=13997425

    …a different picture starts to emerge. 8,320 voters, 73.485% of 11,322 registered voters applied for a ballot.

    Problem is of 2,329 people sent mail ballot packages only 1,940 actually returned them for the local election.

    So does the turnout remain at 8,320 or does it drop to 7,931.

    Then there are 22,729 votes cast which if you divide it by the three votes each voter is entitled to drops it down to 7,576.

    Now I suspect that some people did not cast cast three votes, and in fact may have only cast one or two. But the truth remains that having now seen the Brighton Pavillion GE vote totals for Patcham ward, which are set to be published soon I am now really curious to better understand how many voters are unable to fill out a mail ballot and return it so their vote actually counts in the election.

  16. Pete B

    Poll of 1,056 Scots should be fine but I wouldn’t bet on the accuracy of the poll of the English component of the 2921 polled in rUK.

    Depending on who you listen to, that latter bunch seem to be shy, lazy, or liars! :-)

  17. Pete B

    Poll of 1,056 Scots should be fine but I wouldn’t bet on the accuracy of the poll of the English component of the 2921 polled in rUK.

    Depending on who you listen to, that latter bunch seem to be shy, lazy, or have pants on fire! :-)

  18. OLD NAT.
    Hello to you Sir.

    Is it true that polls are still being done? This is genuinely funny if true.

  19. Chris Lane

    Of course, polls are still being done! There isn’t yet evidence that the English polls were “wrong”.

    Even if they turn out to have a methodological problem as to whether a group of people confuse Tory & Labour (a very easy mistake to make) that doesn’t mean that attitudinal polls are wrong.

  20. Its what old people do ,nat,get confused.

  21. 07052015

    Fortunately, some skills remain till the end. The ability to punctuate is one of these. :-)

  22. NAT
    Ha Ha Ha.

  23. OLDNAT

    As others seem to be wary of polling in England, perhaps you should caveat the 48%:26%:26% split on extra powers. Doesn’t seem to bode well for the vow, though.

  24. The Guardian is reporting that Kezia Dugdale is now favourite to take over the poisoned chalice of Scottish Labour leader.

    Apparently she has the support of the entire LiS Westminster contingent.

  25. Exile in Yorks

    In terms of her career, Kez might be well advised to put her name forward only for Deputy Leader, and suggest that someone near the end of theirs should provide experience, guidance and support for the next year.

    Remember the fate of William Hague!

  26. But not spell eh old timer -till we meet gain

  27. @Candy

    1. “What percentage of the electorate move every year?”

    I suggest:
    – 10% of owner occupiers and those in good quality social housing
    – 25% of those in reasonable private rented accommodation and other social housing
    – 50% of those in poorer quality private rented accommodation

    2. “Your story about how it took 20 minutes to register was only the case because you had to hunt for National Insurance numbers.”

    It would have been a lot more than 20 minutes if I had had to hunt for NI numbers rather than knowing where to find the missing one. There were 11 items to fill in per person, repeat the process three times and I think I was doing quite well in all honesty. And when organisations claim that it takes only x minutes to do something, is your experience like mine that they tend to be a little economical with the truth. It took a lot longer in practice, because not untypically one of the three registrations was rejected requiring supplementary documentation to be completed including photocopying and posted back (the ERO told me that one in four was about par for the course).

    And for those without access to the internet, just to request an IER form you have first to get past the council call centre….

    3. “Most people know their number (all students doing part-time jobs will have had to give their number to their employer!).”

    Most? Not sure. A lot of people can memorise it, a lot don’t. Some people including many students lead disorganised lives and find it hard to put their hands on anything without going to quite a bit of bother.

    4. “I think you underestimate how many people are not on the register because they can’t be bothered to be.”

    No, I agree with you, it was already a very considerable number who didn’t register, even under the old relatively easy system. But that’s the point. Add to that with a significant extra degree of hassle under IER and it’s no surprise that a lot more won’t bother or at least put it off and then never get around to it. It’s not necessarily that they won’t want to vote come an election, it’s just that registering won’t be that high on any list of daily priorities.

    My other son left home a year ago and still hasn’t told the bank he’s changed address, since his statements still go to our old house. Dad’s mentioned it to him a few times – has he bothered to do something about it yet – no.

  28. Leading Scotland commentator and expert on SNP speaking on BBC R4 Westminster Hour saying that Salmond is being put into Foreign Policy (despite being not strong in this area) to keep him out of N Sturgeon’s radar. And that many SNP MPs will enjoy Westminster very much. Says that Salmond absolutely loves Westminster!

  29. PROFHOWARD
    Leading Scotland commentator and expert on SNP speaking on BBC R4 Westminster Hour

    Who was that? I only heard David Torrance.

  30. And the good news for everyone is that for next year, you will all have to go through the hassle of the IER registration process that I’ve just described, because the system applying in 2015 where most were just carried forward will end.

    And expectations are that many million more names will disappear.

  31. Phil Haines
    Perhaps those who actually bothered to turn up to vote and then found they couldn’t will be a bit more responsible next time.

    What with people not registering to vote and quite a lot of others (I believe) not filling in the latest census, the authorities will find it difficult to plan for the right number of schools, hospitals, roads etc in any given area.

  32. JCB owner, tory peer and donor lord bamford says wouldnt make any difference to his business if uk was in or out of EU.

  33. BARBAZENZERO

    I don’t think people outside of Scotland know his name but he appears to be an authority on the SNP and has written several books on them.

  34. @Old Nat

    Thanks for your earlier comment.

    I hope that the SNP has realised the importance of electoral registration and is pressing for it to become a devolved responsibility as a matter of urgency. That way, you could put in place something akin to the plan that Sadiq Khan put forward, whereby people are initially registered automatically by default using official administrative records. Something akin to that already applies in Australia, to prevent people failing to register as a means of avoiding the law requiring them to vote.

    If the Conservatives require the Boundary Commission to conduct a new review, parliamentary seats will be calculated based on those registered. If Scotland has an effective system that adds to the numbers on its registers, while millions more disappear from those in England with the full advent of IER, then you could legitimately argue under the current rules that Scotland should have perhaps 70 out of 650 UK parliamentary seats.

    More likely the prospect of Scotland having so many seats might just cause the Conservatives to be converted to the cause of basing parliamentary seats on official government population estimates, at long last.

  35. Pete B

    Or even better – we can just let everyone in England drop off the register and then when the boundary review is done all the seats will go to Scotland and the SNP can take over.

  36. Prof Howard

    “Appears” is the appropriate word. There is no doubt that Torrance can speak and write with great apparent authority on many things.

    However, he has no great insider knowledge. Accepting people at their own estimation of themselves is often unwise.

  37. Profhoward
    They won’t see the funny side. D Torrance is like so many in being a target for nationalists.

  38. @Pete B

    In the USA, you can in many cases cast a “provisional vote” by registering on the day and giving the necessary identification, which is checked after polling day.

    Provisional votes don’t normally delay the result except in very close contest where the number of such votes exceeds the winning margin.

    It’s getting to the stage where we need such a system here.

  39. I see Tim Farron has said Nick Clegg could be in line for a high-profile job on the Lib Dem frontbench. Stating the bleedin’ obvious there I would have thought – they have about twenty briefs to distribute amongst eight people.

    I would suggest Deputy Leader as a suitable role.

  40. I’ve had a look at the Green Party target list as it stood in November when the Graun put out an article about it. They had a mixed bag.

    – Brighton Pavilion: Green hold with increased majority, Labour second, vote share moderately up on 2010.

    – Norwich South: Lab gain from LD, Greens third, vote share slightly down on 2010.

    – Bristol West: Lab gain from LD, Greens second, vote share well up on 2010.

    – Sheffield Central: Lab hold with increased majority, Greens second, vote share moderately up on 2010.

    – Liverpool Riverside: Lab hold with increased majority, Greens second, vote share moderately up on 2010.

    – Oxford East: Lab hold with increased majority, Greens third, vote share moderately up on 2010.

    – Solihull: Con gain from LD, Greens fifth, vote share unchanged from 2010.

    – Reading East: Con hold with increased majority, Greens fifth, vote share moderately up on 2010.

    – York Central: Lab hold with increased majority, Greens fourth, vote share moderately up on 2010.

    – Holborn and St Pancras: Lab hold with increase majority, Greens third, vote share moderately up on 2010.

    – Cambridge: Lab gain from LD, Greens fourth, vote share unchanged from 2010.

    Now obviously they’d have been mad to seriously target Solihull or Reading East, but the York Central and Holborn results are quite disappointing for them. On the whole, shows they still need some work. If these were national targets they should have been going for second in all of them.

    My friend told me that Jillian Creasy (Central candidate) was quite realistic about her chances, but that at the count all the Greens around her seemed certain she’d win. In the end she got 15% and came a pretty poor second.

    It’s the Lib Dem 2010 problem of expectation and hype meeting reality.

  41. Anarchists Unite,

    Without using an “A” word that’d get me modded, Clegg is a man with a lot of pride. I’m not sure he’d like or accept going from Deputy Prime Minister to Deputy Leader of a party with eight MPs within a month.

  42. Mr Nameless

    Indeed, the 2010 LibDem is the problem, but it roots are longer …

    Here is a spreadsheet with estimates of the split of the LiBDem loss with some explanations, comments and “?” When I didn’t have a clue. It’s not properly tidied up and probably still has some errors, but I don’t have the time to do it.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxEV7uYminzuYTFjS2ptVlpNc2s/view

  43. MrNameless

    Politics is cruel sometimes. He’ll probably have to do something, given how few MP’s they have. If I was Farron though I’d want Clegg to be in the background a bit, so not Foreign Affairs or Economic brief ideally.

    Poor Clegg can’t risk quitting and causing a by-election under the circumstances though I’m sure he wishes he could just go.

  44. Regarding D Torrance I don’t know enough to say but the BBC seem to regard him has a good person to have on, and I suppose one does not always want to hear the insider’s view? He seems a nice person in any case in terms of his manner and I don’t think he sounded at all hostile to the SNP in anything that I reported above.

    Regarding Kez Dugdale:

    I don’t think it is such a risk for her to take over now. I was looking at the votes in the last Scottish Parliament Election and comparing with the General Election to Westminster and they don’t seem hugely different – so while Labour may lose some seats and SNP may gain some, under the electoral system they are not going to have the same traumatic wipe out as was seen this year.

    In a sense you might think Labour has seen a realignment over many years and the Westminster elections were slow to adjust perhaps because of the Brown effect in 2010.

    K Dugdale does seem to be quite a good leader at Holyrood. Surely Scottish Labour supporters would realise she would need to have a good long run at it and couldn’t be expected to change fortunes in 1 year? Moreover, she has been effectively the leader in Holyrood for 6 months anyway so it would make a lot of sense for her to continue. Comparing her with the last 3 or 4 Labour leaders in Holyrood, I think she tends to perform better at the FMQs. (Not sure how important FMQs are, though).

  45. Phil Haines

    The Smith Commission Agreement on elections reads T he Scottish Parliament will have all powers in relation to elections to the Scottish Parliament and local government elections in Scotland (but not in relation to Westminster or European elections). This will include powers in relation to campaign spending limits and periods and party political broadcasts. The Scottish Parliament already has many of these powers in relation to local government elections in Scotland.

    Since Electoral Registration Officers will be responsible for creating and maintaining both electoral rolls (the Holyrood/LG one will include 16-17 year olds) the process in Scotland should simultaneously help to increase registration on the Westminster roll.

  46. Pity the SDP. Their two candidates this time around got 71 and 54 votes respectively.

  47. Prof Howard

    Torrance certainly isn’t an acerbic hostile commentator like Alan Cochrane! However, your original comment suggested that he has special insight into the workings of the SNP.

    As a political commentator, you can take his views as being interesting or not, but he has no greater insight than the rest of the Scottish press corps.

    That the BBC in London select him certainly gives him no special status. :-) They didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory with their understanding of Scottish politics at the time of the referendum – or since.

  48. Phil Haines
    The provisional vote idea seems good. It would stop all the moaning from those who forgot to register.

    I do think all these registration and census systems seem very antiquated. It’s a pity Gordon Brown’s ID card never came to anything. It could have been used as voter validation amongst other things. It would have been expensive and itself subject to fakery, but it might have saved money in areas like this.

  49. Having mixed feelings as I’ve just heard a rumour that 30% of the entire Lib Dem national campaign fund was spent on Sheffield Hallam.

    On the one hand, bloody hell they were as desperate as we thought. On the other hand, wonder how many seats might have been non-Tory with that money?

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