A few people have asked me if I know where there is a spreadsheet of the general election results available so they can crunch the numbers and explore results themselves. Until now I’ve been using results scraped off the BBC website, but the British Election Study team have now released a data set of the election results for download here.


420 Responses to “Spreadsheet of the General Election Results”

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  1. I am glad you got over your disease of the throat.

  2. SUNREADA
    Why would someone who came 4 out of 5 last time, be any better than EM? And another puppet of Unite.

  3. Callaghan was 3 out of 3 after Gaitskell died. Did not prevent him succeeding Wilson 13 years later!

  4. On the forms and alike. Although I don’t think it is a major issue, but there are 5.3 million functionally illiterate adults in the UK, and of these 1.7 million would not reach the level of an 11 years old.

  5. ROLANDGATINOISE

    Re paucity of talent. I seem to remember similar things being said of IDS and the top Tory cabinet challengers in those days.

    I mean, they even ended up going for an interim (safe pair of hands) leader in MH to fight a general election because there wasn’t a clear and viable alternative to IDS. So could be some parallels there to Lab’s current position.

    Probably difficult for some Conservatives to remember now but it was a pretty bleak time for the blues.

  6. GRAHAM
    What has the history of the post war Labour party got to do with its current state? You only need to go back to the election of Miliband.
    Wrong choice and he got your party badly beaten. What has Burnham got in order to do any better ?

  7. Rolandgatinoise
    ‘You only need to go back to the election of Miliband.’

    says who?

  8. GARY O
    I am quite old enough to remember the Blair years very well. We were hit very hard, but we eventually got a leader who pulled us back.
    Andy Burnham will not do the same for you. Any more than Ed Miliband did.

  9. GRAHAM
    The “bleedin obvious”.

  10. I remember how Labour people cheered the election of Thatcher as Tory leader in February 1975.

  11. Gary O

    Will Hutton argues quite convincingly IMO that most of the Tory leadership will campaign for staying in the EU. If he is correct, that could lead to some interesting repercussions. The Tory Eurosceptics would feel badly let down, and the bluekippers would see this as further reason to mistrust the Tories. So part of the fall out could be that UKIP do relatively well at the expense of the Tory vote. Meanwhile redkippers will not find Lab campaigning for staying in as either a surprise or a betrayal, so for Lab there seems less downside risk.

    One of the early battles on the EU ref will no doubt be over which version of the electoral register to use. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is pressure from some quarters to use the local election version. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Tory leadership hopes to wrong foot Lab and LDs by getting them to support this, and then by opposing it portray themselves as defenders of the right of the British to decide their own fate. Lab and LD would be well advised to come down firmly on the side of the GE electoral register rather than leave themselves open to the accusation of wanting an electorate biased to staying in.

    The EU ref is a big opportunity for Lab to start to find their way back from the election outcome, and will be the first big test for their new leader.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/17/tory-victory-means-britain-will-not-leave-eu

  12. GRAHAM
    What has that got to do with the price of fish?

  13. Roland
    Not everyone is inclined to rely on a single example even if it suits you to do so. Some of us seek greater insight from a longer historical perspective.

  14. EXILEIN YORKS
    At least you make a point worth making. Thank you for that, you may well be right. This “Labour dun good” rubbish is rather silly.

  15. Graham
    I do not wish to discuss the goings on back in the day, not because I was not around, I was. Not because I don’t know, because I do. But all I want to say is this; Labour needs to change big style, if it wants to pick up its business. Another one of the boys like Burnham will not do it.

  16. @Phil Haines

    What percentage of the electorate move every year? Your story about how it took 20 minutes to register was only the case because you had to hunt for National Insurance numbers. Most people know their number (all students doing part-time jobs will have had to give their number to their employer!).

    I think you underestimate how many people are not on the register because they can’t be bothered to be. Russell Brand wouldn’t be selling that many books if he wasn’t tapping into a “don’t bother to vote” culture that already existed.

  17. EXILEINYORKS

    Strategically that makes sense to me, although the worry from a Lab point of view might be getting seen standing next to the Tories and Lib Dems like they did in Scotland. Could make UKIP point to all of the other parties and say they are all the same.

    If the ‘Britain Out’ movement gets around 40% of the vote and loses and then UKIP manage to mobilise that 40% in support of UKIP at the GE like the SNP did then that could cause a problem for all the parties.

    I don’t think its likely. But then I didn’t think the SNP rise was likely either!

    The register makes a massive difference though and would Lab want to risk losing the referendum to use the GE register rather than the local one?

    Having said that, if Tories campaign to stay in and the public say ‘get out’, surely that’s disastrous for the Tories and Cameron. Apocalyptic mess on the scale of the ERM fiasco.

  18. Roly old chap trust me -AB is not EM.

    AB will be elected leader ,the irony is the unions are pretty much emasculated by the new system thought up ironically by ray collins tgwu fixer .

    Unions have no nomination rights

    There is no electoral college where unions had one third of the votes.

    The decision is in the hands of members and members alone.

    There are 200000 individual members and apparently less than 1000 affiliated members/registered supporters.

    In other words a system very similar to the tories and libdems.

    To put in language you might understand -EM would not have been elected under this system.

    Spin it whatever way you want to and underestimate your opponent -make my five years

  19. While the Conservatives won, and won comfortably, there are some red herrings in the causes of Labour’s loss

    1. UKIP. While there were areas where Labour lost a lot to UKIP (e.g. in Kent) it is actually not general at all, and in many areas it didn’t matter (CON loss to UKIP did matter in a few places, but not at all in general) – the main source of UKIP’s growth is the ex-Lavour voters who went to LibDems (and protest parties) in 2005. Now, one could argue that they should have got them back, but probably a large proportion of them was a lost cause. There were constituencies where it was as high as 80% of loss of the LibDems. There is a certain level below which the voters are inaccessible to Labour or Conservatives through arguments. Mythology rules there. Burnham’s current attempt … Well, we will see … (Why did the EU question bothered potential Labour voters in let’s say East and West Manchester, but not in Central Manchester or Merseyside? The demographic differences are not that big, and EU immigration is actually lower in the former two. The same applies for Cumbria, for example).

    2) a fairly large proportion of the ex LibDem vote went to the Greens, which is more understandable, than the UKIP switch. This switch hurt Labour more than the direct losses to UKIP. On the average it was somewhere around 12%, maybe a bit more.

    3) the Conservatives got a good share of the ex LibDem votes where it mattered (about 30% or more) and it helped them to hold up Labour too (so it worked on CON-LAB marginals). Here credibility was definitely the issue. Elsewhere they barely got 10% of it.

    4) In London (although not everywhere) the ex LibDem vote went to Labour and the Conservatives – but also to the Greens. It seems to me that the composition of the ex LibDem vote was very different there than elsewhere.

    5) it remains the question why was Labour relatively more credible (it doesn’t mean that they were credible as such) in metropolitan areas (not only in the North) than elsewhere. Without understanding it, any major repositioning by the Labour Party could be very dangerous – they can lose the hard won 3.5% and the retained voters and may not get back the ones they lost back in 2005.

    And two more that are parts of the mystery of the last election.

    6) while it is not in the genes of the Labour Party, can they make overtures to the Green Party? It may well be very important.

    7) the LiBDems didn’t only lose an awful lot of seats, but votes too. Which way are they turning?

  20. As for why Labour lost. Here’s the analysis I wrote on May 6th at 5:14 p.m. (i.e. the night before the election):

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9377/comment-page-14#comments

    Lab has made more mistakes than the Conservatives in this campaign (though Ed Miliband has outperformed expectations by a good deal).

    When they saw the LibDem vote plummet post the 2010 election, they should have rushed into Lib-Con marginals and established themselves as the replacement for the LibDems as opposition to Conservatives – they had nearly five years to do it. But they didn’t bother – I think they thought the Libs would hang on with tactical votes from Lab people. Big mistake, which means the Cons will sweep the south-west.

    Based on what happened in Quebec they should have realised they were doing a bit of a Thermopylae in Scotland and planned accordingly. Either pivoted to try to attract the No voters to vote tactically for them or written off Scotland for this election and focused resources in England. They did neither till too late.

    When going for the 18-24 vote, they seem to have focused on males via Russell Brand and ignored females. And waited till voting registration closed before engaging Brand, which makes no sense at all, given that Brand had told all his followers not to vote!

    They should have dealt with the SNP effect in England in the first week of the campaign but dithered and let a clever Conservative narrative about them dancing to Salmond’s tune take hold (aided by the SNP making helpful statements to this effect). And then even as Ed M was finally ruling out deals, his cabinet were undermining him, so for example Andy Burnham popping up to insist deals were still possible the day after Ed M ruled it out on television.

    I think the SNP effect in England will put Cameron in Downing Street. But we will find out on Friday.

    Does anyone disagree with any of that? It was sort of obvious what was going to happen to anyone paying attention.

    I’ve asked before whether Labour has a Southern Strategy (in the way the Conservatives have a northern strategy). Note that Attlee, Wilson and Blair all won places like Camborne and Redruth. Which candidate in the contest now can win in places like that?

  21. I can’t see the Tories getting into a mess over EU.

    The problems in the 90s were the war between those wanting in, those wanting out, those in favour of Maastrict, those opposed.

    Now it’s unanimous that the Tories all want a referendum, the only question is whether they stay in or out.

    I feel it will be similar to Labour’s stance on AV, while the leadership support one option (Stay In, Yes AV) the majority of the party will support the other option (Get out, No Av) but afterwards when the result is announced the party will pull itself together and actually the issue of Europe will be gone.

    There was no lasting damage done to Labour on the split over AV.

  22. @ Candy

    Without disputing your points, in Camborne and Redruth Labour probably picked up a third of the former LibDem vote (so did UKIP …). Labour did reduce the majority, and with the Greens (see my previous comment), it is reachable, even if it may not be likely.

  23. I think it’s a fairly safe bet that had a Labour government done something to change the electoral register that led to millions dropping of it, and those millions were more likely voted for opposing parties, we might have seen some different responses on here.

    On the wider, non partisan issue, I think it is beholden on everyone involved in the running of the political process to seek to maximise the numbers of those legally registered.

    It benefits no one to have higher numbers of people divorced from the political process, and ultimately only serves to damage society itself.

    If a large minority of people either find it difficult or are unwilling to register, then simply blaming them isn’t useful. Questions need to be asked of the system itself.

  24. Gary O

    Lab problems in Scotland had deep roots which the Indy Ref cruelly exposed, but Better Together was much worse than just being seen as Lab on the same side of the argument as the Tories. It was Labour fronting a team which included the Tories that really damaged them, followed by not having a coherent game plan for the aftermath (unlike both SNP and the Tories).

    I can’t see there being unified campaigns for In and Out in the EU Ref. The lessons of the Indy Ref are too fresh, and there are no natural alliances at present. I expect every party will take a position either for In or for Out, fight their own campaigns, but allow dissenting voices. Doing it this way would also limit the opportunity for UKIP to capitalise on an “establishment are all in it together” argument to hold the Out vote in their camp all the way to a 2020 GE.

    The lack of depth and discipline in UKIP leadership makes the scenario of falling on each other in recriminations seem a much more likely outcome, than one of momentum to a breakthough GE result.

    Finally, the view that Europeans on the local register would overwhelmingly vote in favour of staying in is a widely held assumption. It seems reasonable, but do we have much evidence to show that it is actually true?.

  25. 07052015
    We heard similar glorification of Miliband 5 years ago. Some people like Rob Sheffield though red in tooth and claw, were big enough and bright enough to admit the man was the wrong brother ect ect. If this guy Burnham is so brilliant, why has he not captured the limelight before now? The paratrooper and Chuka have both realised the game is not worth the candle. Only the time servers remain, both tarred heavily with the Brown/Miliband brush. All I know about Burnham is the Stafford Hospital scandal, why as a none Labour voter, will he excite me?

  26. @MitM – “I can’t see the Tories getting into a mess over EU.

    The problems in the 90s were the war between those wanting in, those wanting out, those in favour of Maastrict, those opposed.

    Now it’s unanimous that the Tories all want a referendum, the only question is whether they stay in or out.”

    I really can’t get what you are trying to say here? Tories had a problem in the 1990’s because some wanted out, and some wanted in, but there won’t be any problems now, because some want out, and some want in?

    As a general point, I would urge everyone to have a bit of caution on the outfall of this referendum though – we simply don’t know.

    It’s likely, but not impossible, that Cameron will get a weak deal, but I don’t see him having any option but to campaign to stay in. [This is one reason why the deal isn’t likely to be that good, as the EU leaders know this].

    Potentially, an In vote spells curtains for UKIP, although as pointed out above – it hasn’t stopped the SNP. Similarly, does anyone think that this would end Tory troubles on Europe? A good deal and an In would be good for DC though.

    Labour could equally get in a mess over this, although it’s a bit harder to see how. Rule One has to be don’t campaign with the Tories. Be separate, for god’s sake.

    The worst result would be to leave. Unlikely, but it would present a horrible period for the economy, just as a Scottish Yes would have led to a torrid few years for Scotland’s stability.

    The entire promise could yet end in an almighty mess for someone/everyone, but I don’t begin to pretend I have the faintest idea what will happen.

  27. ManInTheMiddle

    “I can’t see the Tories getting into a mess over EU ………. but afterwards when the result is announced the party will pull itself together and actually the issue of Europe will be gone. ”

    The question is not so much whether the party will pull itself together (which it probably will), but how the Tory leaning part of electorate react.

  28. ALEC
    If what you say is true, Labour should have made representation to have these people reinstated on the voters register. Clearly you believe they were mostly Labour supporters, so, was in not in Labours interest to look out for them?

    Let me add, if a citizen of this country has not the interest or intelligence to take care of a matter of this importance themselves, or seek help if help is required, in my opinion they were unlikely to vote anyway.

  29. If you want to wind Roly up just remind him that this is the first time the Tories have won an election for 23 years and that they did so by increasing their vote share since 2010 by 0.8, yes that’s right 0.8..
    As for Man in the Midden, I’d leave him there

  30. EXILEINYORKS

    I see your point, and no, other than being European we have nothing to suggest they would definitely vote in favour of Britain staying in. In fact, mischievously you might say, some Europeans may prefer Britain to leave given our recent reluctance to be good European partners.

    The Will Hutton article was interesting re the constitutional questions being dragged up by the debate on ECHR as well. Going to be very interesting to see how that unfolds.

  31. @Gary O

    “In fact, mischievously you might say, some Europeans may prefer Britain to leave given our recent reluctance to be good European partners.”

    That thought crossed my mind too. :-)

  32. Alec

    “The worst result would be to leave. ”

    That’s just your opinion, lots of us want to leave. Mind I expect the EU to fall apart anyway sooner or later..

  33. Exile in Yorks

    “I can’t see there being unified campaigns for In and Out in the EU Ref.”

    Referendum rules will almost certainly allocate the largest part of allowable spending to the two official campaigns., with individual parties/interest groups having much smaller allocations.

    That shouldn’t be a problem for the In side, where business interests will provide massive funding for the official campaign and a plethora of “independent organisations” aiming to scare the bejasus out of the populace. Easy for the parties to keep their distance from each other, and fight their own campaigns – if they have a united stance.

    More of a problem for the Outers, I’d have thought. Despite any attempts to make it cross-party, it’s likely to be seen as UKIP/dissident Tory.

  34. Maninthemiddle

    The issue in the 90’s wasn’t just that one half the Tories wanted in and the other wanted out. It was, and still is, that many of the more right-wing Euro-sceptics felt this issue was more fundamental than the survival of John Major or a Tory government.

    It remains to be seen if they fall upon each other if it’s seen that David Cameron is offering little in the way of renegotiation and asking for the British public’s endorsement.

    Eurosceptics might well see that as a betrayal, though it may explain why DC thinks he’ll need to exit the stage pretty sharpish afterwards.

  35. The Tories haven’t won a majority in over a week now.

    There are nearly more Labour MPs in Scotland than Tory MPs in Scotland.

    Clearly, the Tories have their work cut out for them.

  36. Oldnat,

    I think that being headed by “sensibe people” (in the eyes of the public) is more important in a referendum than being cross-party. The 1975 Naw campaign was cross-party; their problem, in part, was that their cross-party coalition consisted of Michael Foot, Enoch Powell, Tony Benn, and Teddy Taylor. Not a great coalition for appealing to the centre ground.

  37. * sensible

    What the Ayes really need in 2017 is a coalition of apparently sensible careful people like Roy Jenkins and Jeremy Thorpe, known for not knocking the boat so that HMS Britannia stays on course.

  38. Valerie
    I am profoundly unwound up. I would have thought vote share was a subject you would wish to leave well alone. I am unwindupable, after this GE result. When you think my party was never going to win again, certainly never get a majority again and be torn apart by inter party friction, why would I get wound up.

  39. The Tories are already divided over Europe so I can’t see how many of the awkward squad will suddenly stop campaigning to leave if an vote to stay in is the result. AV was no where near as big or passionate and was a relatively benign campaign. The referendum will have a much more acrimonious campaign. I could see it getting quite nasty both between both sides in general and especially the Tories and Labour different sides. Through most of Labour Anti-Eu are quite quiet( at least on this subject) and wont get their voice heard above the Tory and UKIP voices and probably won’t want to share a platform with them.

  40. “I am unwindupable”

    Must… Resist… Jokes… About loose screws…

    Anyway, I think that both parties face a number of challenges and have a number of opportunities.

    One question that it will be interesting to see answered in 2020 is the SNP incumbency effect. It’s conceivable, although unlikely, that the SNP could up their 2015 vote!

  41. All of Scottish Labour MP’s meet under one roof at Westminster.

    http://33.media.tumblr.com/c23eb34552f0a0c0e704e76ab80cdf63/tumblr_inline_n2ljubli0Q1swu31u.jpg

  42. @Bill

    Surely only someone with a screw loose could be wound up?

  43. @ Anthony Wells

    Is there a change in the methodology of weighing, or survey design for the trackers reported on YouGov’s site for 14-15 May (Sunday Times)?

  44. I am confident that Cameron will get a reasonable settlement with the EU power brokers that will make his “in” campaign seem the sensible course. The outers in the Conservative party will be allowed to disagree and will then be offered an olive branch when the inevitable happens. There will be a few spats but it will become pretty obvious that the remaining eurosceptics have nowhere else to go and they will calm down. UKIP will squeem and squeem and squeem until they are very sick indeed. They will then do a Cheshire cat impression leaving only Farages grin. Labour will look irrelevant.
    As part of the above there will be the abolition of the 15 year rule and a campaign to register our1.5 million European expats (who know which side their bread is buttered) European immigrants, and many non Europeans for that matter, are probably irrelevant because they can’t vote unless the terms of the referendum bill allow them to do so, which they won’t.

    I know this will not please TOH but it is how I see it. I would guess it will be at least 60/40 for “IN”, possibly 70/30.

  45. 2015 election vs 2010 election

    600,000 more people voted Cons
    700,000 more people voted Lab
    4,400,000 people deserted the Lib Dems
    2,900,000 more people voted UKIP
    1,000,000 more people voted SNP
    900,000 more people voted Green
    500,000 people deserted the BNP

    I’m sure there are some positives in those figures for everyone.

  46. Re mid term referendums

    Isn’t there a chance that if DC is suggesting we stay in, and the government is in that typical mid-term slump of public opinion, that some people will vote against the government recommendation just to kick the government.

    Also, will the ‘Out’ lobby be more worked up and therefore more likely to vote than the ‘In’ lobby?

  47. GARY O

    That might be true if the Conservatives were the only party for IN. As it is only UKIP, as a party, will want OUT. UKIP did OK at the election but have the largest negative ratings of all the parties.

  48. @ Gary O

    Labour is very likely for IN too. So will SNP, PC and LD.

    But we will have Greece (and who knows what as a consequence) before the referendum. We also have at least three rising nationalisms going to different directions. And we also have as you just posted a massive protest vote block.

  49. Roly just worry about your next leader the one that will fight the 2020 election.

    Osborne -lightweight at the despatch box ,strange involvements as a young man.

    Teresa -shrill ,unbalanced,the gravest threat since the abdication -haha

    Boris -how many more lovechildren

    Patel -bring back hanging

    Bring it on.

  50. The view that an EU Ref with a stay in verdict will somehow close the issue and be followed by the anti-EU opinion melting away, seems optimistic to say the least.

    In the 1975 referendum the No vote was 32.8%. Ipsos MORI have been polling on the issue intermittently since then, and as this link shows support for “out” has rarely dropped below the level of the 1975 referendum. Would a body of opinion this large and persistent really just give up on something they clearly feel strongly about just because they lose a referendum?

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2435

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