Most pollsters produced their final polls last night, ready to go in the first edition of whichever paper commissioned them. Today we have the final few companies – Ipsos MORI, who do polling for the Evening Standard so always publish on election day itself, Populus and Ashcroft, who do their polls on their own accord, so didn’t have to finish in time for a print deadline last night. We also have the final figures from ICM, who put out interim figures for the Guardian yesterday, but then continued fieldwork into the evening.

  • Lord Ashcroft’s final poll has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 11%, GRN 6%. Full tabs are here
  • Ipsos MORI have final figures of CON 36%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 11%, GRN 5%. Full details are here.
  • Populus have final figures of CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%. Tabs are here.
  • Finally ICM have published their final figures for the Guardian. Yesterday’s interim numbers were 35-35, today’s final figures shift only slightly to CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 4%. Tabs are here.

I said on Tuesday I’d revisit my final prediction in light of the final polls. My earlier prediction was based on Con and Lab being neck and neck, so no change there. The final few Scottish polls have shown slightly smaller leads for the SNP – between 20% and 23% – so while Labour are still neck-and-neck nationally, perhaps they are doing a little better in Scotland and a little worse in England than I predicted. We shall see.

As was the picture yesterday, all the polls are essentially showing a neck and neck race – they’ll either all be about right, or all be wrong. The only company showing a gap of more than one point between Conservative and Labour is Panelbase, who have a two point Labour lead. Over the past few weeks there has been some comment on the apparent difference between phone polls and internet polls, whether phone polls were showing a Conservative lead and online polls not. If this ever was a pattern, rather than just co-incidence, it’s not present in the final results, the average for the final telephone polls is CON 34.5%, LAB 34.3%; the average for the final online polls if CON 33.0%, LAB 33.0%. You’ll note that online polls have both Lab and Con lower – that’s because there is a significant difference between the pollsters on how well they think UKIP will do – telephone pollsters all have UKIP on 11-12%, but online pollsters vary between 12% from YouGov, Opinium and BMG right up to 16% from Survation and Panelbase.

And, that’s it. The next poll will be the broadcasters/NOP/MORI poll at 10pm. I’ll be working on the BBC election coverage through the night so won’t be posting any analysis here overnight, but feel free to stay and chat in the comments section if you want. In the meantime, good luck to all standing and campaigning. Good luck to all pollsters on getting it right. And good luck to those poor souls who keep or lose their jobs tonight based on a public vote.


2,199 Responses to “The final four polls”

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  1. @GEOFF

    There is no-one ‘in the know’, not the bookies, not the punters, not the politicians. All anyone has to go on is the polls; and on the back of these by far the most money today has gone on Labour to win the most seats. So the bookies have reduced the odds on this outcome – that doesn’t mean they think it is more likely, rather that they stand to lose more money if it happens.

    So if the Tories DO win by 20-odd seats, the bookies will no more have been right that they have been wrong, they never expressed an opinion, it’s not what they do. Until today, most money had gone on the Tories to win the most seats so that outcome had the shortest odds.

    However, if the Tories do win by that sort of margin, the polls will have been wrong, as they were in 1992, and the pollsters will, as you say, have to reflect on that.

  2. Link to collated data for anyone who wants it.

    Names have been replaced by numbers (I have the names) to protect the innocent.

    The data belongs to everyone so all welcome to post anything. Remember though… no comments like ‘number 68 is an idiot… ‘ etc Its all for fun!

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FpQcemi9kYU-Dg6l0SEazoAeodGJpuUEfUQYsM5xbNs/edit?pli=1#gid=723955517

  3. If we become the new Nate Silver can we split his earnings 189 ways? I suspect we would all see a tidy sum!

  4. @Ashman

    I’ve no idea how to do that.

    And I ought not to have used the third person plural in what I posted. It was against the Policy of the Site. Apologies.

    @Les Cunningham

    Yes, I think you’re probably right – unless the Tory back benchers can be persuaded that the end of Barnet outweighs the threat to the Union (or, that the only way of saving the Union is to undercut the ground from the SNP’s feet and give them even more than they are asking for…… But how?)

  5. Neil J

    “For the last few weeks from the polls I could not see how mathematically the conservatives could form the next Government unless the polls changed or they were wrong”

    Neil please bear in mind 2 factors:-

    Firstly even if the National polls are correct they may not accurately reflect what is happening in the Marginals and it is arguable that there is some, albeit limited, evidence that the Swing to Labour may be less in the Marginals

    Secondly there is some historical evidence that the Tories tend to out perform against the Final polls please see :-

    file://localhost/C:/Users/Mike/Desktop/Is%20there%20a%20shy%20Tory%20factor%20in%202015_%20-%20Number%20Cruncher%20Politics.mht

  6. As usual everything goes eerily calm for a few hours until the polling stations close. Then at 10pm it’s back to full throttle spin.

    I know I’m a bit late, but to everyone here who has been canvassing, standing or otherwise directly involved in the election, good luck in your local area. Hope your efforts move things a little in your favoured direction whatever that may be.

  7. For all those who have bets on today… value or otherwise…. good luck!

  8. MAGPIE

    I think we could be!

  9. John B

    @Ashman 2.39 – my comments

    Also please avoid block letters, its rude, despite not meaning to be. :-)

    SNP is there to represent the interest of its electorate, no matter what. It does not produce results that makes the electorate life easier, it will face that backlash.

    It SNP threatens Labour, it will suffer a backlash, even in Scotland, because they are creating a situation that may mean a election being forced again within the UK, before the end of the fixed 5 year term, if not Labour would face an even bigger back lash in the UK. This way Labour can preserve their dignity and a number of seats, or force the SNP to zip up.

    People are people, English, Scottish, Welsh etc. They all react the same.

    At this stage you can think what you like, all gung ho, I want that from the SNP, blast Labour, I want to see Labour reduced in the UK

    For the Conservative, SNP has been a gift horse. Very happy about.

  10. Bruno

    “Based on the final polls, it is not clear which party will have the most seats in the House of Commons.”

    Yes, it is. Both main parties will have about the mid-270s, assuming Con win 15 LD seats and lose 44 to Lab and 2 to UKIP, while Lab lose 36 to SNP but win 44 from Con and 10 from LD (leaving LD with 23, with 9 losses to SNP).

    Unless, of course, ALL the polls have significantly underestimated one or more parties’ votes.

    In the matter of FFA for Scotland, I’m surprised how many of those who toss this idea about seem blithely unaware of the political, financial and administrative complexity – to say nothing of its controversiality – of instituting this.

    FFA just for Scotland would compound tenfold the already lopsided system of devolution we have, giving the UK a uniquely bastardised from of federalism.

    Is not Labour’s plan to establish a necessary constitutional convention very sensible?

  11. I suppose now that the polls are done then all that can be done is to comfort ourselves with things like betting odds, GOTV effort, as yet unseen swingback or recent poll changes, all chosen according to whatever result we desire.

    I intend to calm my nerves with a couple of beers in the sun, and await the exit poll for a sign that Godot will arrive. Cheers!

  12. CATOSWYN…….. Thanks for your effort, commendable. :-)

  13. Regarding betting odds this point has already been made but certain posters need to learn how odds work. The bookies don’t have a huge team analysing all the political data and news constantly and modifying odds based on what THEY think will happen, the odds adjust based on where the money is and for every well informed professional gambler there are ten rose tinted partisans betting on their own side or genuinely clueless people who fancy a flutter. The betting odds give a VERY slight indication but as has been said they’re sending mixed signals, this is not strange in fact in an election this close it’s an inevitability.

    The bookies got the last election very wrong use them as evidence of what will happen at your own peril.

  14. rayfromthenorth

    “Any offer DC makes, EM can match it +something extra”

    This ignores the fact that the Labour Party is probably not yet prepared to give up the Scottish Labour Party and potential votes at Westminister. If as seems likely Labour retain some seats in Scotland and see the potential to get more back later then they are unlikely to agree to any package involving Devo-Max & Eng Votes for English matters.

  15. @Aberdaberdoo posted this on the last thread –

    “Ashcroft national Poll detail.

    Are the late deciders breaking for Labour?

    Of those who decided in the last few days 8% broke for Labour compared to 5% who went for Conservative.”

    This is the second bit of polling evidence to support this. Survation found undecideds breaking for Labour 31/23, which is proportionately not too far away from a 5/8 split.

    If this is true, it is potentially significant and may explain the moves in the latest telephone polls.

    The big question must be why haven’t online pollsters picked this up?

    Mike Smithson has tweeted that it’s normal for large sample phone polls to converge, presumably due to reduced MoE.

    My question would be why was there a consistent Con bias in these polls from the earlier smaller samples? If it is simply an MoE issue, surely the phone polls would show more Lab/Con randomness with the larger samples settling things don towards the mean position?

    There is also the question of ICM showing a further move to Lab in their last findings. Is this random noise or consistent with a continuing break of undecideds to Labour?

    Anyone got any thoughts?

  16. I am not so convinced that the rise of the SNP is really that fantastic for the Conservatives: in the good old days, Labour losses basically meant Conservatives gains and these could be simply added to their seat tally without any fuss or bother.

    Now any Labour losses to the SNP don’t actually gain the Conservatives a single extra seat; and these seats are going to be taken by a party who will apparently never vote support them even if the sky falls in. So from the Conservative point of view, they might as well still be Labour seats.

    But… the SNP can drag a Labour minority government to what might be called a more left-leaning position, and more certainly a less England-friendly position.
    That’s going to be uncomfortable for such a government.

  17. @Catoswyn

    Can I add my thanks to everyone else. Great job

    @Anybody who mentions bookies again

    I have approached a local farmer to beg a loan of his electric cattle prod. I will use it on anyone henceforth mentioning bookies. By the logic of those who think the bookies “know” more than you or me because of what “experts” have backed, then every favourite in every horse race should win. After all, the owners, trainers, and “insiders” have a great deal of knowledge and most of them bet. To prove this fact I suggest you lay a bet on every favourite. I’ll wave to you as you enter the Marshalsea.

  18. After everything DC et al and NC et al have said about each other all these months, how can anyone of sound mind take seriously the idea of a Con-SNP deal in the coming period?

    Talk about the level of trust of politicians!

  19. Odds shortening on Labour most seats
    Odds shortening on Cameron next PM

    Oh my God! He’s going to defect!

  20. I placed a bet!

    Double on Libs to hold Solihull 9/2 (far too long), and Cons to hold Warwick & Leamington 4/11.

    £4.50 pays £33 I think. Don’t have the effort to work it out!

  21. “Oh my God! He’s going to defect!”

    Either that or someone favours a Grand Coalition. ;)

  22. Just six hours to go.
    Any first information about turnout numbers and maybe regional differences?

  23. @ LRR
    A single (losing) bet of 50 bags on Labour has caused the top one. They would call that an outlier on here!
    Cameron went favourite with many yesterday & more today

  24. James,

    Yeah, I was wondering if they had variable dates – I know some of them are Aug 1st, but maybe there are some who would pay out on PM at the start of the new parliament, and DC’s odds for that may well have shortened for good reason if tries to hang on for a QS.

    Miserable Old Git

    OK, I see the cattle prod coming my way, but to be fair, I’m mostly trying to debunk the idea that betting odds contain any special wisdom and to explain why two possibly contradictory bets might both be shortening.

  25. Alec

    Possible reasons for late ‘swing’ to lab:
    – NHS
    – NHS
    – NHS
    – Brand’s volte face
    – Katie Hopkins’ very sweet offer to leave the UK
    – closeness of the election

  26. Rich
    That’s a pretty risky bet, Libs holding Solihull.

    On my treks through Solihull, I have only seen LibDem posters/signs/etc – but nowhere near as many as 2010. Solihull was absolutely plastered with them back then.
    Probably not the best indicator, but there you go.

  27. Mitz

    Re: Ruth Davidson’s tweet about alleged intimidation at some Scottish polling stations. If this were to be proven would there be any implication for the results affected, or would the electorate in those constituencies still have to just accept the count?

    There’s probably nothing in it:

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/596286509629763584

    like most Twitter rumours. I suspect it probably started as someone tweeting “I hope I won’t get picked on by SNP/Tory/Labour[1] heavies when I go to vote LOL” and it spiralled from there. Annan is hardly known for its gangland culture.

    But there does seem to be a certain apocalyptic strain in the leadership on the unionist side that is convinced terrible things must be happening for them to be so suddenly unpopular and the public must be being coerced in some wicked way. We saw this during the referendum, despite it being mostly pretty well behaved on both sides, even the most minor (or non-existent) things got elaborated into some terrible affront. Some of this was the media looking for ‘drama’ but there was also the indignation of an establishment used to having its own way not being able to cope with the shock of being opposed successfully.

    To return to the more general question of what counts as intimidation, while ordering people away from polling stations certainly would do, there may greyer areas over less overt forms. In the recent Tower Hamlets case, the judge couldn’t rule that it had taken place, though he clearly felt that it was not right and the law should be changed and clarified.

    In practice the police should actually put a stop to anyone behaving remotely like this and ask them to move on. There usually very aware of such things as even posters slightly too near the polling station.

    [1] Delete as appropriate. Ashcroft found that Dumfries and Galloway was a three-way marginal in February (SNP 34%, Con 30%, Lab 28%)

  28. @LittleRedRock I misread that as ‘He’s going to defecate’.

  29. KeithP

    “But… the SNP can drag a Labour minority government to what might be called a more left-leaning position, and more certainly a less England-friendly position. That’s going to be uncomfortable for such a government.”

    What does ‘a less England-friendly position’ mean? What is the evidence for such an accusation? It seems to echo of the torrent of SNP/Scotland-bashing we’ve had to endure since last September.

    Has not NC gone out of her way to reassure ALL the voters in the UK that the SNP would do everything they could to promote the welfare of ALL the people of the UK?

    Unless, of course, she was lying, and so adding to the already high level of distrust in politicians (see my post above).

    Should he lead a minority Lab government (with the arithmetic suggested by the polls), ED should have no trouble (ie, no more than any other PM, even one heading a majority party) governing for the next five years.

  30. LITTLE RED ROCK

    “Odds shortening on Labour most seats
    Odds shortening on Cameron next PM

    Oh my God! He’s going to defect!”

    The only way to get Cam to give over about the legitimacy of a Labour minority govt? :)

  31. CATOSWYN and NORTHUMBRIANSCOT

    Thank you both for collecting and analysing UKPR contributors predictions.

  32. @CATOSWYN

    “Off to have a coffee. :)”

    ————

    What a most excellent idea…

  33. I’ ve noticed fewer election posters this GE than previous ones. I reckon there’s been a declining trend over the years.

  34. @magpie

    There was a story on the front of the Times this week implying that Cameron would hang on for QS and that her maj would deliver it in person.

    It had been previously suggested that a doomed QS would be delivered by someone else (leader of the Lords?), but the main point of the Times report was that Heywood (Cabinet Sec) had decided that the Queen should deliver it.

    Their thinking was it would look like they were presuming that the QS would be defeated if she didn’t deliver it personally. Also, in comparable circumstances, it was George V who delivered a Tory King’s Speech before they were ejected by Lab + Lib in 1923/24.

    I guess the betting public is taking their cue that Cameron will try to hang on, even if the arithmetic isn’t favourable. I doubt the Tory press would accuse him of “squatting”.

  35. Just having one in between getting the vote out in Stockton South!

  36. @ Alec

    It is really too late to ask these questions, but anyway … I think it’s methodology – treatment of the undecided, DK. The trouble is that we won’t know if it’s reality or a mere attribution.

    In my opinion there is no late swing here. If there is anything it is people actually make the effort to go to the polling station, and they happen to tell the pollsters.

    But the decisive thing in England (and to some degree in Wales) is the voting pattern for one party.

  37. @Tinged,

    Yep it’s a risky bet, but a bit of fun. If Cons get it I will be very happy, so it’s a win win for me! I live in Meriden next door, which is 1/200 on for Cons, and visit Sol nearly every day. It’s a funny place. A lot of money in many places, but Lib Dem vote is sticky there as per last two elections where Libs beat the odds. And Clegg was at a hedgehog rescue centre this week. Got to count for something?…!!

    Meriden polling stations where I am were packed!!

    Rich

  38. What on earth makes celebrities, whichever party they support, think anyone cares whether or not they leave the country?

    I’ve only just found out who Katie Hopkins is! On second thoughts maybe that’s why they do it – so that saddos like me will look up who they are. Anyway now I know who she is …. I really really care whether or not she stays.

  39. @JOHNG

    “I’ve noticed fewer election posters this GE than previous ones. I reckon there’s been a declining trend over the years.”

    ———-

    I dunno, there seem to be loads posting this time. Catoswyn has hundreds for the prediction thing…

  40. Last post was to follow the ones about having a coffee jus in case anybody misreads it and calls it a Labour gaff and a game changer to bring about crossover and a late swing back LOL.

  41. JStephenson (fpt)

    Voted and changed my mind on the drive to the booth. Funny how that happens. Gone with the more safe and sensible option, than the ideological gamble.

    This is what the two biggest Parties will be hoping (and indeed the Lib Dems in their own seats). Those who have been saying UKIP in the polls will revert to the Conservatives when they actually get in the polling booths. Similarly Greens to Lab/Lib Dem.

    The whole Crosby strategy has been to scare dissatisfied voters back to the Tories. The problem has been that there has been no way of telling if it was working because it could always be said that it would not register till polling day. It could even be that such a ‘swingback’ doesn’t even register in the exit polls[1] because voters may be unwilling to admit they feel they have been ‘coerced’ back to voting for their ‘old’ Party.

    There may be some evidence of this in the Ashcroft polling. This was split over two days (5th and 6th) and the two are shown separately in the tables:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Final-ANP-150507-Full-data-tables.pdf#page=6

    Party / Tues 5th / Wed 6th

    Con / 30% / 34%

    Lab / 32% / 34%

    Lib Dem / 10% / 8%

    SNP / 5% / 6%

    PC / 1% / 1%

    UKIP / 13% / 9%

    Greens / 7% / 6%

    Others / 1% / 2%

    The effective sample sizes for each day separately (889 / 886) are both actually larger than you would get in a normal Ashcroft weekly poll.

    It may show that UKIP voters are getting squeezed to Con, Green to Lab, Lib Dem to both. But the days are probably not separately weighted and it might just mean that say UKIP voters are easier to get hold of and quota filling means they get contacted on the first day rather than the second.

    [1] This is ignoring all the other problems that the exit polls will have because of the uneven spread of the Lib Dem fall and UKIP and SNP rises which means that the most representative polling stations to monitor may not be as predictable in the past.

  42. @ MISERABLE OLD GIT

    That made me laugh

    I don’t think you are.

  43. I live in a safe seat right next door to a key marginal.

    There are a normal number of posters in the marginal and hardly any in the safe seat.

  44. If a QS is defeated and a neww Govt formed, is there a new QS?

  45. DAVEM

    LOL!

  46. @RICH

    “I am.slightly concerned about Lab operation.on the ground. I don’t think.you should.be allowed.to door knock.on.the day, just let people.decide is my view.”

    ————–

    Nothing to stop Tories going door-to-door in their disability scooter thingies. Those things can shift, might be an unfair advantage…

    Anyway, you are leaving out disparities in party funding etc…

  47. I really do think that I must be the most polled person in Britain. About 10 opinion polls from four companies during the last four weeks of the campaign and then just now I’ve been exit polled online!

  48. @JAMES

    I thought the Queen always delivered the QS? Unless she’s ill or something I think she always does it.

  49. CHARLES STUART

    You must have something very interesting about you. You’re not that BNP voting old lady from Wales are you?

  50. MAURA
    What on earth makes celebrities, whichever party they support, think anyone cares whether or not they leave the country?

    @Maura,

    I couldnt agree more. But the same goes for celebrities who think they can influence your vote. I hated that Coogan PPB. I mean the guy used to have a load of Ferraris, huge house, has a glamour model girlfriend not much older than his daughter, did a programme recently where he and that other comedian ate out at Michelin starred restaurants all over the country, and then tells people the way Tories live there lives isn’t very nice and they are all for the rich. You couldn’t make it up.

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