FINAL POLLS

The day is almost upon us. Tonight we will be getting final call polls from most of the companies – though MORI and Lord Ashcroft’s figures won’t be released until tomorrow morning. In total eleven companies have polled during the campaign, I’d expect to see figures from everyone:

  • BMG already published their final call for May 2015 yesterday – results were CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. (tabs)
  • TNS‘s poll this morning – which I assume is their final one – had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. (here)
  • Opinium released their final poll this morning, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%. Full details are here.
  • Finally so far, and most surprisingly, ICM have released interim figures from their final poll showing CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%. ICM’s last five polls showed Conservative leads, so a tie is a slight surprise. Their fieldwork is still ongoing – they will release updated figures tomorrow morning – but given three-quarters of their fieldwork is done they are unlikely to change much. (tabs)

Updates to follow as polls appear…

  • UPDATE1: Panelbase have released their final poll, with topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5% – the first of the eve-of-election polls to show a Labour lead. Note that Panelbase did a separate England & Wales poll and Scotland poll and then combined them together, so their Scottish figures are from a full size Scottish survey, weighted down to the correct proportion of a GB poll. In Scotland voting intentions were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 5%, SNP 48%. Full tables are here.

UPDATE2: Tonight’s final three polls from today are out (remember, MORI, Ashcroft and the full ICM figures are tomorrow). Details are below:

  • The final YouGov poll for the Sun and the Times has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Like Panelbase, the YouGov GB poll contains a separately weighted full size Scottish sample, and in this case also a Welsh one. Scottish figures were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, SNP 48%; Welsh figures were CON 25%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, Plaid 13%. Tables are here: GB, Wales, Scotland
  • Survation in the Mirror also have neck-and-neck figures – they’ve released figures using the normal method and their new ballot paper with candidates names method, but their headline figures are the latter, which produces topline figures of CON 31.4%, LAB 31.4%, LDEM 9.6%, UKIP 15.7%, GRN 4.8%
  • Finally ComRes for the Mail and ITV are almost neck and neck – a one point Tory lead, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Full details are here

Looking at the eight final polls we have so far the figures are very close in terms of the Conservative vs Labour race. Four companies (YouGov, ICM, Survation and BMG) have dead heats between Labour and Conservative, three have one point Conservative leads (TNS, Opinium and ComRes) and Panelbase have a two point Labour lead.

Levels of Lib Dem support are also quite similar across pollsters, with numbers all between 8% and 10%. There is a little more variance with UKIP support – the difference between pollsters isn’t as huge as it once was, it’s still there in the final eve-of-election calls – varying from 11% with ICM to 16% in Survation and Panelbase. I’ll update with the final final polls tomorrow morning.


888 Responses to “FINAL POLLS”

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  1. I am seeing some small signs of Labour triumphalism on these pages.

    Comrades, I urge you to resist this bourgeois deviationism.

    Remember Sheffield!

  2. Rich

    If TND from the Sun say wow, you do not need your gut feel.

  3. As its the final yougov tnd has to spin it the best way he can. Rupert s already criticized the sun for not doing a good enough job attacking ed, there’s a lot of worried journalists working there .

  4. LRR

    More importantly: Labour triumphalism would violate the Comments Policy.

  5. Prediction:

    Con 31
    Lab 31

    (That would scare a few folk!)

  6. “If this were true he wouldn’t have ruled out a deal with the SNP.”

    precisely the opposite he did just enough to leave his options open with them but not scare the English before election day

  7. LITTLE RED ROCK
    Your petit bourgeois defeatism has been noted comrade.
    Remember Trotsky.

  8. Never mind YouGov, where’s the rest of the polls we were expecting?

  9. As I’ve said before this will be the first election that I vote in but also the first I’ve followed closely. I thought it would be exciting but at this point I’m finding it nauseating :(
    I wouldn’t mind if one party or the other had a clear irrefutable lead that way I’d know what to expect but the closeness of it all….”shudders”

  10. Isn’t it statistically illiterate to poll 10,000 people?

  11. MAN IN THE MIDDLE
    Some of us English are already very very scared.

  12. Sacrilege to say this here…but could this election signal the death of polling? The Poll of Polls has indicated a dead-heat for weeks. No individual pollster has detected a consistent, significant lead for either Cons or Lab.

    If the polls all turn out to be wrong (due to shy Tories or shy Scottish Labour supporters or soft UKIP’ers or resilient LibDems or just a significant polling booth wobble) and we do get a decisive result- will the wider population decide to ignore polls?

    Could it be that the voting public is now just too fickle/capricious/sophisticated for polls to be accurate?

  13. Cons 35 Lab 33 I am going for. Not long to wait!

  14. RIVERS10

    It’s difficult to escape from the tension.

  15. @ Prof Howard

    You are completely right Comrade Professor, Damn! Did it again.

    @ Roly

    Trotsky? Trotsky? No, he is not in any of the photographs in my books.

  16. Rivers10

    Some advice, don’t vote early….the day drags terribly if you’ve been early doors

  17. @ Rivers10

    I agree, I have not had an alcoholic drink for over four years, I fear the bottle of port in the study will not be there come Friday morning.

  18. Suffolk. No ,pollsters always have loads of excuses and assure us next time they’ll be spot on.

  19. I would prefer AMS to STV. Incidentally, I don’t see why there needs to be a referendum on it. Just change it. Might not work well for Labour long term, but would be a recognition that 2 party system is over.

  20. I was always advised to vote early……and often.

  21. More on that TND tweet

    TND: “Wow. We now have the final @YouGov poll for #GE2015; 10,000 asked. Peter Kellner’s final seat projection also revealed at 10pm on #SunNation.”

    MS: “This from TND suggests a good final poll for CON from YouGov. https://t.co/xbfQn6p2o2

    TND: …not necessarily…dramatic.

    I take from this it’s a 2-3 pt Tory lead. TND would not be publicising it otherwise.

  22. Yougov is a 10,000 poll.

  23. If it’s wildly different to the NowCast is that a case of YouGov having their cake and eating it?

    Having looked at the Yougov NowCast thing for round here and a couple of other seats I know well, all I can say is it’s a bit of fun.

    For starters it restricts voting rights to members only – which would limit the sample and also restrict it more to politically motivated, younger, better educated people I would think,

  24. In reply to Mike Smithson`s tweet “this suggests a good poll for Tories”, TND replied “not necessarily. Dramatic I’d say”. Any interpretations?

  25. Rayfromthenorth
    Ah we’ll that’s unfortunate since the plan is to vote around 10:30, otherwise I have to walk to the polling station and frankly I’m too lazy to even consider that.

  26. Little Red Rock

    Labour triumphalism???? Where?

  27. Hope I’m not too late with my prediction…

    Lab 271
    Tory 280
    SNP 48
    LD 26
    DUP 9
    SF 5
    SDLP 3
    PC 3
    UKIP 1
    Green 1
    Independent 1
    Speaker 1

    Going to be might interesting in the coming days, possibly weeks.

  28. Straws in the wind…still go for status quo around 290/25

  29. @ LRR

    “I am seeing some small signs of Labour triumphalism on these pages.
    Comrades, I urge you to resist this bourgeois deviationism.
    Remember Sheffield!”

    if it wasn’t the Labour Party, I would refer to an article: Dizzy and Success.

  30. A “dramatic” poll? What does that mean? Knife-edge? Or perhaps Lynton has timed his strategy so all the swingback happens on the last YouGov poll?

  31. From the Guardian website today:

    “Already the party has given up on unseating Clegg in Sheffield Hallam, and believe they will have to deal with him in the event of any talks, unless he faces a wipeout and loses the support of his own party.”

  32. Any interpretations?

    SNP holding or even rising into low/mid 50s?
    Labour Scotland rising to 30?
    UKIP below 10?
    Tories and Labour neck and neck on 30 or 31?

    any of them would be dramatic

  33. Graeme

    Just guessing but could it be that YouGov have both Con and Lab level but both well down on what was expected?

  34. I really don’t think that it would be a massive U turn for Labour or Conservative to advocate PR.

    One of the keystones in favour of single seat constituency simple plurality (FPTP) has been that it produces strong single party governments. Well, unless we are mostly very surprised on Friday morning (where is TOH by the way?) it doesn’t anymore.

    So you are left with the lesser arguments, ease of ousting MPs, local connection with relatively small population/area. These advantages also exist in other systems.

    My preference is STV. I think that it was a great shame that Blair opted for party lists for EU elections. I think that it is amongst the worst of all systems.

  35. More on that TND tweet

    TND: “Wow. We now have the final @YouGov poll for #GE2015; 10,000 asked. Peter Kellner’s final seat projection also revealed at 10pm on #SunNation.”

    MS: “This from TND suggests a good final poll for CON from YouGov. https://t.co/xbfQn6p2o2”

    TND: …not necessarily…dramatic.

    I take from this it’s a 2-3 pt Tory lead. TND would not be publicising it otherwise.

    —————————————————————

    It implies nothing, going by the link you have provided.

    It just says Wow, easily meaning 10,000 individuals polled.

    TND most likely wants to see his twitter following to go up.

    I would not read too much into it.

  36. Tom is hardly going to say wow after years of bashing ed it’s had absolutely no effect.

  37. Rich
    Lucas is a certainty, Labour were level with her at the bookies 6 months ago & are now 3/1, probably the highest shift outwards for any Labour candidate in England. The previous Kabour candidate who was a close 2nd in what was a Safeish Labour seat bravely jumped ship to the next seat where she will lose again in my view.
    My last walk along a single street to a pub 200 yards from the Station saw 7 Green posters & no other, and it’s the same across all the central seats.
    There is even potential for some reds to jump aboard the green ship @ leave the blues in 2nd in a seat they held a good while back
    Incidentally for those taking Tea in The Grand on Friday they could well have, within half a mile or so the territory of 3 different Parties, Green, Labour & Conservative

  38. Dramatic (adjective)

    A word used to draw attention to a poll published on a day when lots of other polls are published.

    see also Wow, Zoiks, Cripes (Hillingdon) and Jings Crivens, help ma boab (Renfrewshire)

  39. Mikey

    There is not any especially with a wipeout in Scotland.
    Cameron can not believe his luck winning the referendum ,then wiping out Labour are to big hits.

    If he takes the UK out of the EU, that is some legacy.

  40. I would love to see PR in this country. It would lead to coalition Government on a permanent basis but I don’t see that as a bad thing. It would certainly make every vote count.

  41. The use of the word “dramatic” could be ironic ie 34% apiece.

    It’s a teaser and has served its purpose

    Or it happens just by chance that they have polled 10,000 Lib Dems

  42. Tories have not abandoned the polls.

    Many of us consider that they understate the Conservative vote,
    having seen this on multiple occasions previously.

    Labour win from the centre ground, not a left of centre campaign
    that we have just seen – this is also something many Tories
    are aware of.

    However it’s up to the people now.

  43. @ROLANDGATINOISE Well, one…

    Oh and TOH, but he’s made himself scarce.

  44. @LRR

    Totally agree re STV. Keeps the constituency link, and list systems give the party HQs too much power.

  45. Just noticed my seats add up to 249, could I change UKIP from 1 seat to 2? Thanks.

  46. SUNREADA
    MANINTHEMIDDLESTEVEDMP15
    ASSIDUOSITY
    STEVEDMP15

    Have your predictions :)

  47. @Graeme

    Perhaps TND “dramatic” is about PK final seat prediction? A dead heat tie in terms of seats for Lab/Con would be dramatic, and also “not necessarily good for Cons”

  48. @David West

    There are 10,000 Lib Dems?

  49. However it’s up to the people now.

    Christ we’re doomed.

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