FINAL POLLS

The day is almost upon us. Tonight we will be getting final call polls from most of the companies – though MORI and Lord Ashcroft’s figures won’t be released until tomorrow morning. In total eleven companies have polled during the campaign, I’d expect to see figures from everyone:

  • BMG already published their final call for May 2015 yesterday – results were CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. (tabs)
  • TNS‘s poll this morning – which I assume is their final one – had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. (here)
  • Opinium released their final poll this morning, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%. Full details are here.
  • Finally so far, and most surprisingly, ICM have released interim figures from their final poll showing CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%. ICM’s last five polls showed Conservative leads, so a tie is a slight surprise. Their fieldwork is still ongoing – they will release updated figures tomorrow morning – but given three-quarters of their fieldwork is done they are unlikely to change much. (tabs)

Updates to follow as polls appear…

  • UPDATE1: Panelbase have released their final poll, with topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5% – the first of the eve-of-election polls to show a Labour lead. Note that Panelbase did a separate England & Wales poll and Scotland poll and then combined them together, so their Scottish figures are from a full size Scottish survey, weighted down to the correct proportion of a GB poll. In Scotland voting intentions were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 5%, SNP 48%. Full tables are here.

UPDATE2: Tonight’s final three polls from today are out (remember, MORI, Ashcroft and the full ICM figures are tomorrow). Details are below:

  • The final YouGov poll for the Sun and the Times has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Like Panelbase, the YouGov GB poll contains a separately weighted full size Scottish sample, and in this case also a Welsh one. Scottish figures were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, SNP 48%; Welsh figures were CON 25%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, Plaid 13%. Tables are here: GB, Wales, Scotland
  • Survation in the Mirror also have neck-and-neck figures – they’ve released figures using the normal method and their new ballot paper with candidates names method, but their headline figures are the latter, which produces topline figures of CON 31.4%, LAB 31.4%, LDEM 9.6%, UKIP 15.7%, GRN 4.8%
  • Finally ComRes for the Mail and ITV are almost neck and neck – a one point Tory lead, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Full details are here

Looking at the eight final polls we have so far the figures are very close in terms of the Conservative vs Labour race. Four companies (YouGov, ICM, Survation and BMG) have dead heats between Labour and Conservative, three have one point Conservative leads (TNS, Opinium and ComRes) and Panelbase have a two point Labour lead.

Levels of Lib Dem support are also quite similar across pollsters, with numbers all between 8% and 10%. There is a little more variance with UKIP support – the difference between pollsters isn’t as huge as it once was, it’s still there in the final eve-of-election calls – varying from 11% with ICM to 16% in Survation and Panelbase. I’ll update with the final final polls tomorrow morning.


888 Responses to “FINAL POLLS”

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  1. @Cloudspotter,

    Presumably won’t be PR now UKIP are strong. Any coalition getting together on voting reform will be by nature gerrymander it to their advantage. Am amazed the Cons didn’t find a way to do the boundary reforms.

  2. @ cloudspotter

    “C4 News are claiming Labour are set to make the LDs an offer on electoral reform.”

    Hope it’s a better one than they got from the Tories last time.

  3. Cloudspotter

    Interesting. I did mention about PR the other day if you recall!!!!

  4. @Cloudspotter,

    If that’s true I may secretly start wishing for a last minute swing to Labour…

  5. @cloudspotter

    “C4 News are claiming Labour are set to make the LDs an offer on electoral reform.”

    It’s getting exciting now isn’t it

  6. @ Laszlo

    “Some of the squeezes on UKIP in Lab-Con marginals are massive on YouGov NowCast ”

    Presumably that is down to the anti SNP strategy?

  7. @ Cloudspotter

    Could be or they are just filling up the time, or someone inLabour said something that vaguely sounded like … VC’s interview, no doubt, helps fuelling these things.

    @ Postageincluded

    Thand you. You put it better than I could have done.

  8. While as a Labour supporter, I am obviously pleased to see a tiny bit of last minute mmtm in their favour, I am not sure it is in their interests to go into tomorrow with the headlines suggesting a Labour win is on the cards. I don’t think it would depress Labour’s vote but it might well dissuade some bluekippers from abandoning the mother ship! It is on how much this happens that this election will be decided. Personally, I still expect this group to get cold feet at the last minute, thus my expectation of a bigger Tory vote and seat number than many are projecting.

  9. Lab 285
    Con 270
    SNP 50
    Lib 19
    DUP 7
    Sinn Fein 5
    Plaid 3
    SDLP 4
    UKIP 2
    Green 1
    Alliance 1
    UUP 1
    Respect 1
    Speaker 1

    That’s my prediction! Am I in time?

  10. TND apparently saying ‘Wow’ about the Yougov result and final Kellner prediction, which suggests it’s a good one for the Tories.

  11. @ Norbold

    “I see all our Tory friends seem to have abandoned the polls as a measure of public opinion”

    Please stop this, your getting over excited and the fall will be much harder than needed.

  12. A late cover drive…

  13. Correction

    Personally, I still expect *a significant proportion of* this group to get cold feet at the last minute, thus my expectation of a bigger Tory vote and seat number than many are projecting.

  14. @cover drive

    Yep the deadline is 10pm, don’t worry

  15. c4 its 2 union leaders(unnamed ) are advising labour to offer libdems a deal in exchange for electoral reform if labour come second . could be a story from Michael crick to take away from eds message. constitution,red ed,bacon sandwich scares haven’t worked,unions are the only scares left.

  16. Hi all – long time lurker, first time poster.

    Just wanted to chime in with the thanks to AW for keeping this fantastic site running, and to thank all of you for your entertaining and often insightful contributions.

    And I hope I can join in with @Catoswyn’s prediction game, if it’s not too late?

    My humble guess-timate is:

    Lab: 285
    Con: 267 (inc Speaker)
    SNP: 47
    LD: 26 (Clegg gone)
    UKIP: 1
    Green: 2
    Plaid: 4
    NI: 18

    Lab Minority Govt with C&S from LDs for stability…

  17. Magpie

    Is this the final YouGov poll you are referring to?

  18. @ MartinW

    I don’t know. I wish I had kept a more precise tab than my hazy memory, but I’m sure I have seen two marginals where the squeeze (they give intervals) could be about 10%.

    I actually think it will play a lesser effect than it seems. The data concludes on VI today. So, I take that although some people may change their mind, and if the NowCast is accurate, the outcome should be close to the one listed. As a result, I’m rather dubious about the write up – as not all “interesting” seats are listed.

    I genuinely think that a lot will depend (in the short term) on the foot soldiers because of these odd seats. In the long term these seats are neither here or there.

  19. Both the Labour and LD spokespeople are denying it.

  20. Bluebob

    It’s you’re not your.

  21. @magpie

    Here’s the full tweet. I think the “Wow” refers to the size of the poll, as he mentions:

    Wow. We now have the final @YouGov poll for #GE2015; 10,000 asked. Peter Kellner’s final seat projection also revealed at 10pm on #SunNation

    @little red rock

    Do you have your thesaurus handy? Can you look up the entry for “wow”?

  22. @MAGPIE

    It is a ‘wow’ but not sure it sounds like a corker.

    If it’s wildly different to the NowCast is that a case of YouGov having their cake and eating it?

    If the NowCast is the “best estimate of what the data suggests would happen if the election were held today” then it can’t change wildly before tomorrow.

  23. I understand Miliband is desperate to do absolutely anything to get into power, but I’m not sure the Labour party as a whole are. Offering electoral reform to the Libs to get some sort of deal may get Ed in power now, but the party benefiting from FPTP most of all is Labour, and the country already rejected AV by 70% so he can’t reintroduce that without riling some anger, and if the Yes to AV camp failed to win people over with AV, how will they do it with the even more complicated STV?

  24. @ Cloudspotter

    Apologies. So it is the unions. Fog of war, I think.

  25. @maninthemiddle

    “but the party benefiting from FPTP most of all is Labour”

    Actually it’s the SNP

  26. Omni: Good point, it could just be the size.

    It’s just that TND never sounds happy unless it’s good news for the Tories, and he does say ‘We now have the…’

  27. Cloudspotter

    They would say that, wouldn’t they…

  28. M in M

    ‘I understand Miliband is desperate to do absolutely anything to get into power’

    If this were true he wouldn’t have ruled out a deal with the SNP.

  29. Catoswyn
    Wow that one innocent prediction I made several days ago really exploded into something, do you regret responding with a notification that you had took note of my prediction? I bet you didn’t expect this ;)

  30. Matt M

    Yeah, maybe it’s the equivalent of an each way bet, if the Nowcast is wrong they can claim their final polls licked up some movement…

    Or is that just paranoid?

  31. Ok, hands held up and ignorance admitted.

    Who/what TND?

  32. ManInTheMiddle

    STV (multi-member) is proportional, AV isn’t. AV would have given Blair an even bigger landslide.

    I voted against AV, I’d vote for PR (STV)

  33. I fancy a Yougov Tory lead. Just a gut feel.

  34. @magpie

    Is “wow” a happy word? Not necessarily. When I read the tweet it didn’t sound happy to me, but tone is notoriously hard to read over the internet.

  35. @Sumer

    Tom Newton-Dunn: Sun’s political editor who tweets the YouGov results at 10:30 (amongst other things)

  36. Maninthemiddle

    Can we have a little less rhetoric please. Its very easy for all off us to come out with stuff about how desperate this or that leader is but it does not serve the best interests of this site.

  37. I have adjusted the slight mathematical error of my last prediction post of two or three days ago
    CON 269
    LAB 283
    SNP 48
    LD 25
    DUP 9
    SF 5
    PC 3
    SDLP 3
    UKIP 2
    IND 1
    GR 1
    SPK 1

  38. @ Norbold

    Well done, do you not have any leaflets you should be delivering?

  39. Wow

    A word used to draw attention to a poll being published on the same day as lots of other polls.

  40. Tories 282
    Labour 273
    SNP 48
    Lib-Dems 24
    UKIP 8
    SF 5
    SDLP 3
    PC 3
    Speaker 1
    Greens 1
    Respect 1
    Herman 1

  41. CASCLC
    OMNISHAMBLES

    Thanks, much appreciated

  42. Are the Greens a shoe in for Brighton Pavilion? The leader seems to have so little command of their wider policies and economic figures (from several interviews I have seen), I just wonder if that seat might be in danger? All I here is how horrid the Tories are from her and Lucas, and that’s about it. It’s a rare seat I wouldn’t mind Labour winning…

  43. Con 266
    Lab 302
    SNP 42
    Lib 15
    DUP 8
    Sinn Fein 5
    Plaid 3
    SDLP 3
    UKIP 2
    Green 1
    Alliance 1
    UUP 0
    Lady Hermon 1
    Respect 0
    Speaker 1

    Just to counterbalance a last-minute Tory’s surge suggested by some posters, my prediction puts Labour firmly ahead of teh game. Nick Clegg will also lose his SH seat, while Farage will be the runner-up of a very tight three-way election result in South Thanet.

  44. I am expecting the YouGov to show a Tory lead, as TND never highlights a poll without one.

  45. Comment on Polls So Far Today

    The polls today contribute to an emerging picture of the two main parties being neck and neck. More polldrums.

  46. rich

    I fancy a Yougov Tory lead. Just a gut feel.

    ——————-

    I’m surfe there is medication for that.

  47. @ Rich

    Many think that Lucas is a far better performer than Bennett. One would therefore expect Brighton Pavillion to be a seat where Bennett’s weaknesses, I should say perceived weaknesses, matter less.

    Alternatively, for the psephologically illiterate:

    It woz Brand wot won it.

  48. You never know, maybe it’s a good poll for Lab and Kellner has done a 180………….

    [white text]

  49. YG prediction

    Con 35 Lab 34

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