FINAL POLLS

The day is almost upon us. Tonight we will be getting final call polls from most of the companies – though MORI and Lord Ashcroft’s figures won’t be released until tomorrow morning. In total eleven companies have polled during the campaign, I’d expect to see figures from everyone:

  • BMG already published their final call for May 2015 yesterday – results were CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. (tabs)
  • TNS‘s poll this morning – which I assume is their final one – had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. (here)
  • Opinium released their final poll this morning, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%. Full details are here.
  • Finally so far, and most surprisingly, ICM have released interim figures from their final poll showing CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%. ICM’s last five polls showed Conservative leads, so a tie is a slight surprise. Their fieldwork is still ongoing – they will release updated figures tomorrow morning – but given three-quarters of their fieldwork is done they are unlikely to change much. (tabs)

Updates to follow as polls appear…

  • UPDATE1: Panelbase have released their final poll, with topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5% – the first of the eve-of-election polls to show a Labour lead. Note that Panelbase did a separate England & Wales poll and Scotland poll and then combined them together, so their Scottish figures are from a full size Scottish survey, weighted down to the correct proportion of a GB poll. In Scotland voting intentions were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 5%, SNP 48%. Full tables are here.

UPDATE2: Tonight’s final three polls from today are out (remember, MORI, Ashcroft and the full ICM figures are tomorrow). Details are below:

  • The final YouGov poll for the Sun and the Times has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Like Panelbase, the YouGov GB poll contains a separately weighted full size Scottish sample, and in this case also a Welsh one. Scottish figures were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, SNP 48%; Welsh figures were CON 25%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, Plaid 13%. Tables are here: GB, Wales, Scotland
  • Survation in the Mirror also have neck-and-neck figures – they’ve released figures using the normal method and their new ballot paper with candidates names method, but their headline figures are the latter, which produces topline figures of CON 31.4%, LAB 31.4%, LDEM 9.6%, UKIP 15.7%, GRN 4.8%
  • Finally ComRes for the Mail and ITV are almost neck and neck – a one point Tory lead, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Full details are here

Looking at the eight final polls we have so far the figures are very close in terms of the Conservative vs Labour race. Four companies (YouGov, ICM, Survation and BMG) have dead heats between Labour and Conservative, three have one point Conservative leads (TNS, Opinium and ComRes) and Panelbase have a two point Labour lead.

Levels of Lib Dem support are also quite similar across pollsters, with numbers all between 8% and 10%. There is a little more variance with UKIP support – the difference between pollsters isn’t as huge as it once was, it’s still there in the final eve-of-election calls – varying from 11% with ICM to 16% in Survation and Panelbase. I’ll update with the final final polls tomorrow morning.


888 Responses to “FINAL POLLS”

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  1. The late swing to Labour may be Scottish voters ‘returning home’ and it will be fascinating to see how much the decline of the Labour vote in Scotland has masked the ‘real swing’ to them in E&W.

  2. the polls over the past 2 weeks saw a shift towards the Tories and these past 2 days have seen a shift back to Labour – so level pegging

    it will come down to the marginals as to what happens – I suspect the Tories will outperform the polls but fall short to bring about another Cons/Lib Dem coalition

  3. “They did that when they made the original partition. The Ulster counties were all majority-Protestant at the time.”

    No. Antrim, Armagh, Down, and Londonderry were Protestant, Fermanagh and Tyrone were slightly Catholic, and Cavan, Donegal, and Monaghan were heavily Catholic.

    The last three were put into the Irish Free State. Fermanagh and Tyrone were put in Northern Ireland because while Catholic, they weren’t Catholic enough to outweigh the other four, and a four county Northern Ireland wasn’t felt to be viable.

  4. Mike N

    ‘A plus tard’ means ‘until later’; it’s an alternative for ‘au revoir’.

    At least, that’s how it’s used around here…….

    :-)

  5. ICM are tweeting a ‘final twist’ in the upcoming update

  6. Poll Drums (noun): Drums used to ensure all pollsters march to the much the same beat in the final poll before an election.

  7. Test

  8. Well, the Nationalists combined HAVE gone down 2% in Ipsos Mori, and 2% of other “others” have just disappeared

    In fact in this latest poll they did not appear to find any Plaid voters at all..

    So, since the Labour surge does not seem to have come from the Tories, Lib Dems or UKIP, has it all come from the Greens (well, that figure of 8% always looked outlandish) and more important the SNP??

  9. 1) MOE?
    The final batch of polls seem much closer to each other than previous sets. I would go so far as to suggest that MOE should (with normal distribution) that the polls look ‘oddly’ close together.

    2) Swing back?
    Is the last minute labour surge shown by those companies that previously showed a Tory lead the result in a change in underlying voter data or just as a result of their unwinding built in ‘swing back’ assumptions that skewed their previous polls?

    3) ‘Shy’ voters
    Do all the polling companies adjust for this in these figures – if so do they publish their adjustment factors?

    4) Post mortem: swing back
    Does swing back only take actual / remembered 2010 vote as the baseline point. I would say that Labour polled ‘artificially’ low in that election so expecting swingback to that baseline might have been unrealistic and swingback may be a good concept but that it takes place more towards a ‘core’ level of support than just the last election voting position?

  10. It’s difficult to believe that the bookies odds for a SNP clean sweep is only 4 to 1, not a value bet I think! At 10 to 1 it might have been worth a punt

  11. Final Populus 33% tied

  12. Looks more like Green (possibly SNP) or other ultra-left, are returning to Labour. It doesn’t look like the undecideds are surging to Labour.

    Still think it’ll be ~290-295 con and ~270-275 Lab. I can not wait for 22:00 and the exit poll.

  13. For those who missed this last night:
    Statgeek has made a chatroom for us

    ‘Chatroom if things gets too sticky.
    http://bloochat.com/9dnw2
    Password: ukpr2015′

  14. Haven’t seen the whole thing posted yet

    Populus:

    CON 33 (-1)
    LAB 33 (-1)
    LIB 10 (=)
    UKIP 14 (+1)
    GRN 5 (=)

    Fieldwork 5th-7th
    N=3,917

    http://www.populus.co.uk/Poll/Voting-Intention-186/

  15. Thesaurus (Volume 6)

    Final Twist = Look at me! Look at me! Not all those other polls, look at me!

  16. My first post although long term lurker.

    Many of the final polls published are showing a decent labour increase (e.g. 3 per cent) since last time with smaller increases in the Conservatives. Is it possible that this reflects something about the methodology / weighting etc used by most polling companies or is it likely to be ‘real’? Would be grateful for views.

    Thanks.

  17. My final attempt at entering a prediction (I’ve tried 3 times already but it keeps crashing)

    Lab 278
    Con 275
    SNP 48
    LD 25
    Plaid 3
    UKIP 2
    Green 1
    NI 18

  18. Final Populus – Lab 30% in Scotland sub-sample, apparently

    McMilisurge?

  19. I feel the need to thank UKPR for its amazing coverage of this campaign.
    I’m not British. I’m Italian, but I have a strong and abiding interest for the politics of English speaking countries.
    Over the years, UKPR has been a daily source of information for me and has helped my understanding of British political dynamics.
    UKPR is likely to be the best site in the world, as far as poll tracking and analysis are concernced.

  20. @Rich

    A word of caution about beign worried about the amount of Labour activity.

    In last year’s council elections I was at the count, and I was running close to the Tory candidate (I was the Green). I got giddy, thinking 2nd behind Labour would be an amazing result.

    Then came along the box of postal votes. It was heavily Conservative, and the votes from that batch doubled the Conservative vote.

    I think postal votes are likely to be good for the Conservatives. In my area the Tories do well targeting postal voters.

    Anything could happen.

    Relax and enjoy the ride…

    :-)

  21. NorthumbrianScot

    I believe the numbers for Alliance and UUP in our wisdom of crowds prediction should be 0 not 1.

    Only 18 people predict an Alliance win and 27 a UUP win. I realise many people predicted 18 for NI without specifying but it looks to me like more people went for 9 DUP, 5 Sinn Fein, 3 SDLP, Syvia Hermon than went for Alliance or UUP.

    Otherwise our total predictions add up to 653.

    Possibly Respect should be 0 as well to make it all add up right?

    But this is a polling website so we expect that “percentages may not add to 100”. ;)

    Individual guesses should add to 650 though, I don’t know how poor old Catoswyn managed to make sense of some of the vaguer guesses. I got the impression that some of the NI figures didn’t add to 18 either.

    I actually put the UUP on 2 seats, more to highlight things than in expectation. Fermanagh and South Tyrone is always close, though Elliott is an uninspiring candidate, and there is a possibility that Dobson will take Upper Bann. I also think Long will hold on in Belfast East, polling showed a lot of DKs, especially among women and I suspect that a lot of people may want to back her (especially with no UUP candidate) but not want to say so.

    Hermon is one of my Independents[1], the other is Stephens in the Isle of Wight, who seems to be the obvious candidate to benefit from the mess that the Tories are in there. Wright in Devon East should do well, but I suspect the Conservatives will hang on because of the wealthy Exeter suburbs included in the seat.

    [1] North Down’s electoral history suggests the main motivation for selecting their MP being the avoidance of anything so vulgar as choosing one from the same Party as anyone else.

  22. ICM Final

    Lab 35%, Con 34%

  23. Mike Smithson
    final final poll – ICM has LAB in lead
    LAB 35
    CON 34
    UKIP 11
    LD 9
    GN 4

    Swingback is real

  24. Woah! ICM lead for Labour is something of a revelation

    On it’s own I’d say ‘outlier’, but swing to Lab in all the phone polls is pretty conclusive

  25. Been out to vote this morning, and I’ve stocked up on supplies for the evenings televisial proferrings.

    Sadly my Labour vote will be lost in a sea of Tory votes in this truest of true blue shire seats.

    Been very nervous for days that Ed wouldn’t make it into no.10 and all of sudden this morning I feel calm and the polls are looking at the very least encouraging.

  26. Having lots of trouble trying to get into UKPR today.

  27. LD 2% higher than the interim poll. Conservatives in LD/LAB marginals voting LD?

  28. So the 11 pollsters final polls:

    4 have Con +1 (Opinium, TNS, ComRes, Ipsos Mori, 2 online, 2 phone)
    5 have Con and Lab level (Populus, BMG, Survation, YouGov, all online, Ashcroft phone)
    1 has Lab +1 (ICM, phone)
    1 has Lab +2 Panelbase (online)

  29. Lab leading 46 to 35 in the English marginals, according to ICM

    Stirring stuff! Outlier, maybe, but outside MOE for a significant Lab lead in the marginals.

  30. Final polls:

    33.60% (c) 33.60% (l) BMG
    33.07% (c) 32.30% (l) TNS-BMRB
    34.72% (c) 34.26% (l) Opinium
    34.00% (c) 34.00% (l) YouGov/Sun
    34.78% (c) 34.22% (l) ComRes/Mail
    34.00% (c) 35.00% (l) ICM/Guardian
    31.40% (c) 31.40% (l) Survation/Mirror
    30.75% (c) 33.48% (l) Panelbase
    33.00% (c) 33.00% (l) Ashcroft
    36.00% (c) 35.00% (l) MORI/Standard

    33.53% (c ave) 33.63% (l ave)

  31. Swing to Labour in the final polls:

    ICM +3
    Comres +2
    Ashcroft +3
    MORI + 5

    The move to Labour is very consistent. No move to the Tories at all.

  32. @Marco Faraci
    “UKPR is likely to be the best site in the world, as far as poll tracking and analysis are concernced.”

    Aye, this.

  33. It’s 4 to 3 in favour of the Tories in the final round of polls, but real and not imagined swing toward Labour in the last day. It really couldn’t be tighter and the detail in the ICM poll of swing to labour in the ICM marginals data may be crucial if they’ve got it right.

    edit: final populus, it’s 4 all.

    Final Populus – LAB back in lead
    CON 33
    LAB 34
    LD 9
    UKIP 13
    GN 5

  34. Talking of intellectually challenged trains, the service from Victoria has collapsed again.

    Glad I voted this morning!

  35. Having lots of trouble getting into UKPR today.

  36. Gary Gatter,

    Thanks for the decimal places. Interesting from a partisan Labour point of view that the rounding up happens to have favoured the Conservatives; here they are, reported Tory lead vs actual

    TNS +1, +0.77
    Opinium +1, +0.48
    Comres +1, +0.56
    Panelbase -2, -2.73

    Fractional stuff, but interesting when it comes to such tight final margins, and a possible mini-swing to Labour.

  37. Albert

    Why is Sinn Fein more successful in NI than Ireland itself?

    Oddly enough they’re doing rather similarly on both sides of the Border at the moment. Recent opinion polls in Ireland:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Irish_general_election#Opinion_polls

    show them in the low to mid-20s and some have actually put them in the lead with 26%. This is roughly their percentage in NI they got 26% at the last Assembly election for example.

  38. I am in one of two constituencies that has only ever returned
    a Tory MP – Elmbridge – not sure is that local myth or not.

  39. Mike Smithson [email protected]
    Final Populus – LAB back in lead
    CON 33
    LAB 34
    LD 9
    UKIP 13

  40. Interesting final movements in the polls, the bookies unmoved by them, still have Cameron odds on as next PM and Tories as largest party, you can get decent odds on Labour as largest party, currently 7-2 on Skybet for example!

  41. If the apparent swingback to Labour is concentrated in Scotland then they could get close to 310-320 on 35-37% of the GB poll. It would certainly bring a possible Lib/Lab coalition into play. Of course whether they would want to play is a different question!

  42. I’d have thought a practical way to determine whether the apparent swing to labour..or rather increase in labour’s share..today is a genuine last minute movement, a bit of convenient manipulation by the pollsters so as not to stand out from the pack, or a quirk is to have someone look back and see what happened on Election Day 2010… Did the final increase in labour/decrease in Libdem that emerged in the election show itself in that final day’s opinion polling?

    anybody know?

  43. @ Magpie

    I think that looking at two decimal places is overdoing it.

    There is still a MOE. If this were all happening a week or two back the wise heads, Unicorn and others, would be saying that this could very well all be noise.

    Let’s not get too excited.

  44. seems to be confusion about the last populus pole as to whether it’s a tie or 34/33 in favour of Labour

  45. @magpie

    It does look like movement in Labours direction. With most forecasters expecting movement in the opposite direction. Tonight’s exit poll at 10:15 should be “interesting”.

  46. Our Labour friends should calm down a bit (or rather help bringing out their potential vote). These polls still suggest that the outcome will be decided by the voting pattern of UKIP in England and Wales, and the voting pattern of the unionist parties in Scotland.

  47. Correction (thanks Populus!)

    11 pollsters’ final* polls:

    4 have Con +1 (Opinium, TNS, ComRes, Ipsos Mori, first 2 online, second 2 phone)
    4 have Con and Lab level (BMG, Survation, YouGov all online, Ashcroft phone)
    2 have Lab +1 (Populus online, ICM phone)
    1 has Lab +2 Panelbase (online)

    *probably

  48. @BWM

    If Labour did get as high as that, the Liberals would have no choice but to back them i’d have thought as Clegg has constantly stated he would negotiate first with the largest party, given that the Tories would be around 250 on those figures (I can’t see it myself) there’d be nowhere else for Clegg to go if he wants a piece of the pie!

  49. LASZLO

    I think they are.

  50. @ DrMibbles

    Have you got a link to those ICM marginals details. Is that percentage or seats and if percentage (which I assume) what were the percentages at the GE last time.

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