FINAL POLLS

The day is almost upon us. Tonight we will be getting final call polls from most of the companies – though MORI and Lord Ashcroft’s figures won’t be released until tomorrow morning. In total eleven companies have polled during the campaign, I’d expect to see figures from everyone:

  • BMG already published their final call for May 2015 yesterday – results were CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. (tabs)
  • TNS‘s poll this morning – which I assume is their final one – had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. (here)
  • Opinium released their final poll this morning, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%. Full details are here.
  • Finally so far, and most surprisingly, ICM have released interim figures from their final poll showing CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%. ICM’s last five polls showed Conservative leads, so a tie is a slight surprise. Their fieldwork is still ongoing – they will release updated figures tomorrow morning – but given three-quarters of their fieldwork is done they are unlikely to change much. (tabs)

Updates to follow as polls appear…

  • UPDATE1: Panelbase have released their final poll, with topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5% – the first of the eve-of-election polls to show a Labour lead. Note that Panelbase did a separate England & Wales poll and Scotland poll and then combined them together, so their Scottish figures are from a full size Scottish survey, weighted down to the correct proportion of a GB poll. In Scotland voting intentions were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 5%, SNP 48%. Full tables are here.

UPDATE2: Tonight’s final three polls from today are out (remember, MORI, Ashcroft and the full ICM figures are tomorrow). Details are below:

  • The final YouGov poll for the Sun and the Times has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Like Panelbase, the YouGov GB poll contains a separately weighted full size Scottish sample, and in this case also a Welsh one. Scottish figures were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, SNP 48%; Welsh figures were CON 25%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, Plaid 13%. Tables are here: GB, Wales, Scotland
  • Survation in the Mirror also have neck-and-neck figures – they’ve released figures using the normal method and their new ballot paper with candidates names method, but their headline figures are the latter, which produces topline figures of CON 31.4%, LAB 31.4%, LDEM 9.6%, UKIP 15.7%, GRN 4.8%
  • Finally ComRes for the Mail and ITV are almost neck and neck – a one point Tory lead, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Full details are here

Looking at the eight final polls we have so far the figures are very close in terms of the Conservative vs Labour race. Four companies (YouGov, ICM, Survation and BMG) have dead heats between Labour and Conservative, three have one point Conservative leads (TNS, Opinium and ComRes) and Panelbase have a two point Labour lead.

Levels of Lib Dem support are also quite similar across pollsters, with numbers all between 8% and 10%. There is a little more variance with UKIP support – the difference between pollsters isn’t as huge as it once was, it’s still there in the final eve-of-election calls – varying from 11% with ICM to 16% in Survation and Panelbase. I’ll update with the final final polls tomorrow morning.


888 Responses to “FINAL POLLS”

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  1. Interesting graphic showing seat predictions based on 2010 Election

    Cons about right but most vastly underestimated Labour

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEJ1e-fWoAAO0Rc.jpg

  2. @Mike N

    I briefly wondered if “A plus tard” was some new form of insult, but it it must be the French equivalent of “Hasta la vista”

    @Catoswyn: Brilliant work, thank you!

  3. So – a third polling company normally unfriendly to Labour showing a substantial boost

    ICM +3
    Comres +2
    Ashcroft +3

    Is there a last minute Lab surge?

  4. Starting to get worried about Con vote. I do think it’s a Lab minority we are looking at.

  5. Mean UKPR Wisdom of Crowds prediction:

    LAB 272
    CON 279 (or 280 if including Speaker)
    SNP 48
    LIB DEM 25
    PLAID CYMRU 3
    UKIP 3
    GREEN 1
    SPEAKER 1
    DUP 9
    SINN FEIN 5
    SDLP 3
    INDEPENDENT (Lady Hermon) 1

    Median UKPR Wisdom of Crowds prediction:
    LAB 273
    CON 278 (or 279 if including Speaker)
    SNP 49
    LIB DEM 25
    PLAID CYMRU 3
    UKIP 2
    GREEN 1
    SPEAKER 1
    DUP 9
    SINN FEIN 5
    SDLP 3
    INDEPENDENT (Lady Hermon) 1

    With thanks to @JohnG for the Median and of course @CatOswyn for collecting all the entries!

  6. Final Ashcroft poll is another to show dead level, having previously had small Tory leads.

    CON 33%, LAB 33%, UKIP 11%, LDEM 10%, GRN 6%

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/final-ashcroft-national-poll-con-33-lab-33-lib-dem-10-ukip-11-green-6/

  7. Test

  8. @Rich

    I’ve been looking at the #Ivoted on Twitter. Well, to say #ivoted Labour outnumbers #ivoted Conservative would be an understatement. Unrepresentative sample, of course, and this may be ‘shy Tories’ in action. But I am a bit worried.

  9. I think either entrant 126 has missed the point of the exercise, or their prediction is a wry comment on polldrums…

  10. CASCLC

    French can be quite amusing in a non-PC way.

    If a train is late it is called “en retard”. This often comes to mind after a normal train screw-up on Southern Railway.

  11. Ashcroft national Poll detail.

    Are the late deciders breaking for Labour?

    Of those who decided in the last few days 8% broke for Labour compared to 5% who went for Conservative.

  12. @Barbazenzero

    Many thanks for the seats and declaration times CSVs. I shall spend a happy few minutes building my own “seats to watch” spreadsheet from that.

  13. Certainly doesn’t feel like David Dimbleby will be unveiling a 6-pt Tory lead at 10pm wrong… hope I’m wrong of course!

  14. UKPR wisdom of crowds with adapted NI figures (as per Northumbrian Scot)

    LAB 272
    CON 279
    SNP 48
    LIB DEM 25
    PLAID CYMRU 3
    UKIP 3
    GREEN 1
    INDEPENDENT 1
    RESPECT 1
    DUP 9,
    Sinn Fein 5,
    SDLP 3,
    Sylvia Hermon 1.

  15. Did Anthony alter his set projections last night?.

    PK adjusted.

  16. Ashcroft has a tie???

    I genuinely don’t believe this poll. I don’t normally go in for conspiracy theories but I think some of the pollsters in this last batch may be messaging their figures. No one wants to be the idiot who predicted a Labour or Tory win if it goes the other way, and we now have a suspiciously large number of ties, several from pollsters who don’t usually produce them (Populus, Ashcroft).

  17. Alec,

    If I were cynical I might suggest that Ashcroft wants his last poll to be in touch with reality for the sake of his reputation as a pollster, while there may have been other things going on previously…

    The rest of them I tend to trust, even when they give us results I don’t like, but I find his a bit of an odd journey, feels like there is still an undercurrent of something or other going on.

  18. Though Northumbrianscot also points out:

    To calculate our collective George Galloway prediction I have used the 103 entries who didn’t predict any “Others” and who predicted for all other parties.

    Where they have specified 1 Independent I have assumed this is Sylvia Hermon. Where they have specified 2 I have assumed 1 of these is George Galloway unless they specifically given Respect as 0.

    This gives us a collective wisdom of 38 Respect holds and 65 Labour gain Bradford Wests so our collective verdict is that George will lose.

    May 7th, 2015 at 10:20 am

  19. IGNORE me. I’ve just realised Northumbrianscot has posted the median and mean correct wisdom of crowds predictions above my post.

    Thanks NS.

  20. @Jack

    Doesn’t matter what Dimbleby reveals at 10

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyvifYlqihA

  21. why don’t they give back the catholic counties to Ireland and keep the protestant ones in the uk?

  22. It’s all a bit late now, but I am wondering whether Ipsos Mori will join the herd of pollsters by reducing last week’s +5 Con lead to +1 or 0. Would be a big change.

  23. My polling station in Harrow West was quiet with one Tory collating votes. All eyes are on Harrow East which is were the action is and no.53 on the Labour target list.

  24. Voted and changed my mind on the drive to the booth. Funny how that happens. Gone with the more safe and sensible option, than the ideological gamble.

  25. Yeah twitter is very pro Lab, as is all.social media. Makes me.wonder whether some.of these young people would actually.want a one party system!

  26. rich

    I am.slightly concerned about Lab operation.on the ground. I don’t think.you should.be allowed.to door knock.on.the day, just let people.decide is my view.

    ==========================================

    It is permitted, they will also be ferrying people to the voting booth.

    I will tell you a true story, back in the 2005 election, I was as a joint campaign manager for a Conservative PPC, in one particular ward, the door knockers were highly enthusiastic, they were ferrying the electorate, with smiles on their face, more voters for the Conservative candidate. This is a die hard Labour ward, at the count, the voters did not tally out. I had that feeling.

    The Conservative door knockers provided a bus service. A contribution to get the electorate out.

    Before that, in 2001, I was ferrying senior citizens to the electorate booth. I remember one couple in their 70s, feeling guilty, sating to me “you don’t mind, we are Labour”, I smiled, and said I did not hear that, plus this is a neutral taxi service.

    I am sure that Labour would have been ferrying Conservative voters, on that day.

    I personally do not believe it really makes that much a of a difference, knocking on people doors on the last day, I am sure others will disagree.

  27. I’m off to vote and then I’m doing a couple of hours in a marginal. Feeling excited its here at last.

    Good luck to everyone today whatever the colour of your coat.

    Nobody will know what is really happening so let’s not all worry ourselves too much… (Rich…:))

  28. On my break between morning polling agent shifts.

    Weather forecast was wrong – bright cold day, so if the weather forecasters can’t get a complex physical forecast right, what’s the chances of pollsters doing so with infinitely more complex things like people?

    As always, the polling agents (SNP, Lab and briefly a Tory with a nice dog) chat amongst ourselves when there are no voters around. Civilised and pleasant. The “hate” meme is much over played.

  29. @ Albert,

    They did that when they made the original partition. The Ulster counties were all majority-Protestant at the time.

    But the Catholic population is increasing at a faster rate than the Protestant population, so if they continued to allocate counties to countries on that basis bits of Northern Ireland would flake off like a calving glacier with every new census.

    Probably more sensible to just let them have periodic referendums on the subject.

  30. Jack Sheldon

    @Rich

    I’ve been looking at the #Ivoted on Twitter. Well, to say #ivoted Labour outnumbers #ivoted Conservative would be an understatement. Unrepresentative sample, of course, and this may be ‘shy Tories’ in action. But I am a bit worried.
    =============================================

    People get into this frenzy, about twitter.

    It is irrelevant, say, out of 1000 voters, 10 labour voters have decided to show that they have voted dose not mean anything, because the other 995 could have also voted Labour , and they do not believe in twitter.

    Take a chill pill xx

  31. @Catoswyn just checked the forum averages and I am amazed that it is almost identical to my prediction! I just gave Labour 3 more seats and Tories 3 less.

    so it appears the forum thinks we are headed to a Lab minority govt?

  32. @ Spearmint, I guess because of Catholic views on contraception it would be expected that the Catholic birthrate is higher than protestants! :)

  33. @Phil White

    AW rarely predicts and that was very much a one off for our enjoyment (not on the YouGov version of the article). Don’t expect he will change it.

    Interesting that the mean and median of the UKPR ‘Wisdom Index’ are pretty close to AW’s prediction.

  34. On this Ipsos Mori poll, what time does the Standard issue it’s first editions as I’d have thought it would have to be ready for that?

  35. @Shelts

    Early edition is on streets by 2pm at the latest. I can’t believe Ipsos Mori will be later than 12pm, but that is a guess.

  36. CASCLC, understood, thank you.

  37. iPSOS Mori poll

    Cons 36
    Lab 35
    UKIP 11
    Lib Dem 8

  38. According to @britainelects twitter feed

    Latest Ipsos-MORI poll:
    CON – 36% (+1)
    LAB – 35% (+5)
    UKIP – 11% (+1)
    LDEM – 8% (-)
    GRN – 5% (-3)

    Late surge by the reds?

  39. looks like there have been a lot of “shy Labour” rather than “shy Tories”

    the Mori poll confirms a late swing towards Labour

  40. test

  41. Or it could confirm all of the pollsters are hedging their bets and aligning cause they have no real idea what’s going to happen. Too much of a coincidence that all of them have reverted to parity at once.

  42. Steve

    The previous poll was almost certainly an outlier so it is doubtful it is a real surge.

    I would say however that the balance of evidence across the polls is that the undecideds have tended to break for Labour, although it could be coincidence, and the polls could be plain wrong.

  43. Does seem to be a late surge by Labour if the polls are to be believed.

  44. Morning all,

    Do we have data tables for Mori?

  45. Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 8m 8 minutes ago
    All the final polls so far seem to be showing a move towards Labour…

  46. @Aberdabadoo

    I think the plus and minus must be wrong there! (unless the nationalists have gone down 4%!)

  47. The polls became exciting right at the end

  48. Done. Only Greens put out a collection box (I.e. Nobody taunting). Very few people about – mainly OAPs – probably it’s because of the time. It was also good as it was the first time since Sunday that I could go out of the house.

    IpsosMori adjusted then. Who knows what is behind all this convergence, but I guess methodology rather than VI.

  49. Taunting = touting

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