FINAL POLLS

The day is almost upon us. Tonight we will be getting final call polls from most of the companies – though MORI and Lord Ashcroft’s figures won’t be released until tomorrow morning. In total eleven companies have polled during the campaign, I’d expect to see figures from everyone:

  • BMG already published their final call for May 2015 yesterday – results were CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. (tabs)
  • TNS‘s poll this morning – which I assume is their final one – had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. (here)
  • Opinium released their final poll this morning, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%. Full details are here.
  • Finally so far, and most surprisingly, ICM have released interim figures from their final poll showing CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%. ICM’s last five polls showed Conservative leads, so a tie is a slight surprise. Their fieldwork is still ongoing – they will release updated figures tomorrow morning – but given three-quarters of their fieldwork is done they are unlikely to change much. (tabs)

Updates to follow as polls appear…

  • UPDATE1: Panelbase have released their final poll, with topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5% – the first of the eve-of-election polls to show a Labour lead. Note that Panelbase did a separate England & Wales poll and Scotland poll and then combined them together, so their Scottish figures are from a full size Scottish survey, weighted down to the correct proportion of a GB poll. In Scotland voting intentions were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 5%, SNP 48%. Full tables are here.

UPDATE2: Tonight’s final three polls from today are out (remember, MORI, Ashcroft and the full ICM figures are tomorrow). Details are below:

  • The final YouGov poll for the Sun and the Times has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Like Panelbase, the YouGov GB poll contains a separately weighted full size Scottish sample, and in this case also a Welsh one. Scottish figures were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, SNP 48%; Welsh figures were CON 25%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, Plaid 13%. Tables are here: GB, Wales, Scotland
  • Survation in the Mirror also have neck-and-neck figures – they’ve released figures using the normal method and their new ballot paper with candidates names method, but their headline figures are the latter, which produces topline figures of CON 31.4%, LAB 31.4%, LDEM 9.6%, UKIP 15.7%, GRN 4.8%
  • Finally ComRes for the Mail and ITV are almost neck and neck – a one point Tory lead, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Full details are here

Looking at the eight final polls we have so far the figures are very close in terms of the Conservative vs Labour race. Four companies (YouGov, ICM, Survation and BMG) have dead heats between Labour and Conservative, three have one point Conservative leads (TNS, Opinium and ComRes) and Panelbase have a two point Labour lead.

Levels of Lib Dem support are also quite similar across pollsters, with numbers all between 8% and 10%. There is a little more variance with UKIP support – the difference between pollsters isn’t as huge as it once was, it’s still there in the final eve-of-election calls – varying from 11% with ICM to 16% in Survation and Panelbase. I’ll update with the final final polls tomorrow morning.


888 Responses to “FINAL POLLS”

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  1. I’m on the border between Harrow West (safe labour and my constituency) and Harrow East (marginal currently tory), there are labour busy bees all over Harrow East and they think they’ve got it.

  2. NORTHUMBRIANSCOT

    Thanks. Just looking at it.

  3. I’m a little concerned about the consistent reports of LAB’s better ground operation. Not a great surprise – they have more activists and probably younger, more active activists if you get what I mean. But could edge those key seats.

  4. Props to Catoswyn for your hard work…now we have another forecast to rate! We’ll see how the wisdom of UKPR does against the ‘pros’…

  5. @Catoswyn

    To confirm the Wisdom of Crowds stuff I have taken the 109 predictions that contain a value for each of DUP, Sinn Fein and SDLP and added a value of 0 for Alliance and/or UUP if they have not specified 1 for either of them.

    Using these 109 only the average prediction for each party is as follows:
    DUP 8.6
    Sinn Fein 4.9
    SDLP 3.0
    Alliance 0.2
    UUP 0.2

    So our Wisdom of Crowds NI prediction should really be DUP 9, Sinn Fein 5, SDLP 3, Syvia Hermon 1.

  6. Not sure how to work out what our collective opinion is on Gorgeous George though?

    Some of the Ind 1 comments might be thinking of him, some of Syvia Hermon.

  7. I am.slightly concerned about Lab operation.on the ground. I don’t think.you should.be allowed.to door knock.on.the day, just let people.decide is my view.

  8. There are maxium and min. ranges now at bottom of columns for each party.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FpQcemi9kYU-Dg6l0SEazoAeodGJpuUEfUQYsM5xbNs/edit?pli=1#gid=723955517

    Also, as Northumbrian Scot points out our average prediction exceeds the number of seats available by 3 (!) That’s because of the various ways people did the NI prediction. However I’m leaving it because this is a ‘who got closest game’ rather than a predictive tool or anything and ‘cos I don’t want to add zeros into columns and so forth at this stage….

    Off to have a coffee. :)

  9. NORTHUMBRIANSCOT

    Brilliant. Could you type up the new prediction and post it for me?

  10. NorthumbrianScot

    I have to say the one certainty in a UKPR predictor’s life seems to be Sylvia. :) I think we should assume she is the indie meant for those who didn’t specify.

  11. Catoswyn – thanks for all your work, even tho’ I didn’t take part! Enjoy your coffee.

    And thanks to Anthony and to you all for such an informative, amusing, wide-ranging and often eyebrow-raising site! Each to their own but let’s all be glad we live in a country where we can actually vote.

  12. Catoswyn:

    You missed my forecast in your heroic efforts yesterday. So I have copied and pasted again:

    I predict:

    LAB 272
    Con 268
    SNP 49
    LD 30
    UKIP 2
    GRN 1
    PC 4
    RESP 1
    Spk 1
    NI 18

    I posted this at 5.07 pm on the Battlegrounds thread, and reposted at 5.10 pm when I found the 5.07 post had been moderated.

  13. Good morning all from Surrey.

    Does anyone know what time the Ashcroft poll is due out?

  14. As a newbie, thanks to Anthony for the site – it’s been fascinating. So many insightful comments with pleasantly little point-scoring prevalent elsewhere in social media.

    I suspect the polls might have underestimated the Tories share. On the other hand Labour seems to have better operations on the ground – this seems very plausible as I expect a fair few Tory activists have gone over to UKIP since 2010.

    I hate making predictions, but if pushed I’ll go for a CON lead over LAB in the high teens of seats.

  15. Ashcroft National:

    CON 33 (+1)
    LAB 33 (+3)
    LIB 10 (-1)
    UKIP 11 (-1)
    GRN 6 (-1)

    Dates 5th-6th
    N=3,028

  16. Ashcroft Poll Con 33 LAb 33 Lib dem 10 ukip 11 green 6

  17. CATOSWYN

    I notice that you haven’t added your own prediction to the list??!

  18. Just voted in Con held marginal which is possibly the most likely Lab gain in the country.

    No party workers of any sort spotted despite the fact we’ve been inundated with Con (especially) and Lab leaflets for weeks. I suspect both parties know it’s over here and their activists are off working elsewhere.

    Our Polling Station is a temporary ‘caravan’. This time there were two,making voting quicker and easier in what’s become one of the largest constituencies in the country.

    I followed a young Muslim woman in and as I was leaving a steady stream of people from seemingly originally every place on earth was arriving to vote although the very large local Eastern European population will mostly not be eligible for this vote.

    There’s something pleasing about seeing humanity in all its diversity peaceably engaged in a single purpose.

  19. I voted at 9.00 am in South Croydon.

    There was even a short queue, although that was probably down to a man ahead who was having a temporary difficulty in finding his name on the register.

    Safe Tory seat so no tellers or anything.

  20. @Alec

    I don’t think the forecasters can do other than assume the pollsters favour Labour, because on average, they have.

    When you look at the detail though, there’s a lot of complexity. It depends how you pool the polls, for a start, and what you decide is a final poll. Then you have to take into account that polling methods have changed, and particularly that they have changed to try to correct the pro-Labour error, by reallocating DKs and turnout filters, and perhaps also by moving to on-line. You could get sophisticated about it all, but with so few good data points why bother?

    On an eyeball analysis, since 1992 the pollsters as a community have gradually corrected the error. Con-Lab was pretty accurate in 2010, (the average lead in the last week was 7.2% by my reckoning) but this did include some eccentric results from Angus Reid, without which the Tory lead would have been slightly underestimated. If I was betting on how wrong the polls will get the lead, I’d rather fancy >2%, based on recent form.

    The confounding factor is that the pollsters seem to get close elections wrong. Everyone knows 1992, but Feb74 was a dud too, and much less analysed than 1992. Wilson benefitted from “late swing”, some say. Whatever the reason, the polls failed to recognise something going on in thr country, perhaps a real change in sentiment, perhaps a polling artifact, perhaps a change in respondents attitude towards pollsters. And it’s the last that most interests me. Pre-1992 the “shy Tory” effect was unrecognised, but the polls didn’t get it all that wrong. Something changed in the way voters thought about voting and polls. The pollsters have applied a sticking plaster to the wound, and it seems to have healed, but there’s no reason to believe the patient can’t get ill again.

  21. Why is Sinn Fein more successful in NI than Ireland itself?

  22. Something spooky about the final polls – laboury polls and toryish polls mainly come back to level pegging – as if no-one wants to be wrong. My guess is that unless there is further squeeze on the UKIP vote during the course of today, is that Labour may just shave it.

  23. The data for the UKPR prediction game belongs to everyone so please feel free to post on it/do things to it etc if you feel called upon.

    However in the spirit of the site no comments like ‘who was the idiot who predicted 603 seats for the … party’ or so forth.

    People used the polls available and added in their own theories whether it be swingback, 1992, shy Tories, local knowledge, gut feeling and hope…

  24. CATOSWYN

    You’ve done a sterling job collating all those responses!!!

    As a matter of interest, on rounded figure the median shows LAB and SNP one higher than the mean. CON and, perhaps more significantly UKIP are one lower. UKIP is the biggest difference with the mean 2.54 but median 2.00.

    None of this is to suggest the median is preferable to the mean though e classic Wisdom of the Crowds calculation was Galton’s weight of an ox http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd

  25. How convenient for all the pollsters that they are suddenly converging!

    The one noticable trend is that Labour appear to be slightly improving their position in several of the final polls.

  26. Sorry, meant to add Galton used the MEDIAN.

  27. FLAGONSDRY

    No I thought I’d be a completely neutral observer on this one…..

  28. Good morning all. I’ve just voted, following a visit to the dentist ((just a check up and no work needs doing, so I’m feeling more cheerful than I might have done!)

    Anyway, no sign of party workers. The good people on duty informed me that there had been ‘a steady flow’ (whatever that means!) but I was the only one in at the time. On my way out there seemed to be a good half dozen on their way in, however.

    I was a little surprised by the Scottish Tory figures in the final polls. They were at the bottom end of the spectrum and it is possible that they may lose their existing seat and not gain Berwick Roxburgh and Selkirk – which might remain LD (I hope so!). Anyway, we’ll see………..

    A plus tard (as we say in West Lothian)

  29. JOHNG

    I’d like to echo your sentiments. Thoroughly enjoyed this site. Disagreement and debate but for the most part informed and good natured.

    My prediction?

    Conservative 274
    Labour 274
    SNP 52
    LD 27
    UKIP 1
    Green 1
    Other 21

    But what do I know?

  30. Well the Ashcroft one is interesting, had expected a Con lead but level and showing Labour up 3 is unexpected.

  31. EVERYONE

    The data for the UKPR prediction game belongs to everyone so please feel free to post about it/interpret it any way you want etc if you feel called upon.

    However in the spirit of the site no comments like ‘who was the idiot who predicted 603 seats for the … party’ or so forth.

    People used the polls available and added in their own theories whether it be swingback, 1992, shy Tories, local knowledge, gut feeling or hope…

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FpQcemi9kYU-Dg6l0SEazoAeodGJpuUEfUQYsM5xbNs/edit?pli=1#gid=723955517

  32. Just as an aside from the main event.

    Who is going to poll the fewest votes?

    My money is on Prophet Zebadiah Abu-Obadiah from the ‘Nation of Ooog’ who told voters “We do not care if you vote for us. ”

    I’m sure there are a few other colourful characters out there who will provide competition in the race to the bottom though.

  33. So far in the last phone polls theres no sign at all of a Conservative surge, indeed the last 3 phone polls show Labour moving up by 2,3 and 3 points. We still await the updated ICM and IPSOS/MORI.

  34. John B
    “A plus tard”
    what does it mean, please?

  35. If the Tories don’t out poll the polls, it will be the forecasters who have egg on their faces this time!

  36. @catoswyn

    Any reason for supressign the names, obviously the entries were not anonymous when they were made…and I can’t remember what my prediction was…..

  37. @ Richard and others

    Those of you doing seat predictions – some of you have predicted 2 Independents. Who is the second one? The only one I know of is Lady Sylvia Hermon. Thanks in advance.
    _________________

    My second independent is Claire Wright, standing against Hugo Swire in East Devon. Bit of a long shot I’ll grant you.

    And just to echo the thanks to AW for site and hosting these discussions, and to Catoswyn for collating the predictions.

  38. POSTAGEINCLUDED

    To be honest, I think it is a case of them getting their swing back prediction wrong and not wanting to change horses in case it ends up being correct after all.

    On current polling, it is quite possible that Cameron would end up a few seats ahead (as AW predicts).

    My formal prediction is for level seats based on hard numbers, although my instinct is that the Labour ground operation should tip them ahead. As this is a polling site, I have predicted with my head though.

  39. Just noticed Electoral Calculus have updated their prediction for my home constituency of Pendle.

    Tory win.

    Margin of error 0.0%!

  40. Just voted in Watford. Busy polling station, sunny day, high turnout ahead IMO.

    People in front of me refused to answer questions at exit, but had confirmed their address in the polling station – I know that street, large detached houses, lots of blue banners in the windows, shy Tories at work?

  41. SEENITALLBEFORE
    ‘SHOCK EXIT POLL REVEALS LIBDEM LANDSLIDE’

    LOL

  42. The majority of polling prior to UK General Elections
    overestimates the Labour vote, this time it may be different,
    unlikely imv.

    The last time Labour won a GE running on a left of centre platform
    was 1974, Labour win from the centre, not the centre left.

    Again this time may be different, but it’s unlikely.

    EM has set the tone since he won the leadership, he shaped
    the Labour Party largely in his own image.

    If this is rejected by the electorate, he is responsible.

  43. A lot of the recent Tory leads have been due to d/k and heavy turnout adjustments.

    Those effects are bound to decrease as polling day is imminent.

    So this is either more evidence against swing back of undecided, or it is a co-incidence based on MoE across ICM, Survation, Lord Ashcroft etc.

  44. Voted in Pudsey at 8.30 am… Really surprised that no party was collecting numbers!! Don’t they realise this is a marginal seat? Are they going to call on everyone this evening??

    Got an early morning leaflet from Labour. Not very targeted since I suspect my street will narrowly vote Tory, and they never canvassed me. (well, I suppose they may have me down as a Lib Dem from 15 years ago!)

    BTW for those wondering why so many names were crossed off early in the morning, they will be the postal voters. It is important that they don’t vote twice!

  45. To calculate our collective George Galloway prediction I have used the 103 entries who didn’t predict any “Others” and who predicted for all other parties.

    Where they have specified 1 Independent I have assumed this is Sylvia Hermon. Where they have specified 2 I have assumed 1 of these is George Galloway unless they specifically given Respect as 0.

    This gives us a collective wisdom of 38 Respect holds and 65 Labour gain Bradford Wests so our collective verdict is that George will lose.

  46. @Albert “Why is Sinn Fein more successful in NI than Ireland itself?”

    Because most Irish people in the Republic of Ireland don’t really care too much about getting Northern Ireland back. I think if they were offered the option they’d say yes, but largely it doesn’t drive them as a main issue.

    I believe NI will eventually return to ROI and will be welcomed with open arms when it does, but to most voters in ROI, there not going to switch to Sinn Fein just because they are the loudest in wanting NI back

  47. I voted at 0945. There was a short queue of five people, which made a change from the last time I voted. When I voted for Police and Crime Commissioner one polling clerk turned to the other and said, “Oh, look! We’ve got a voter.” I voted mid afternoon and they hadn’t seen anyone since before lunch! I felt rather sorry for them because, as with all elections, they work a shift that means that they remain with the ballot boxes for the full 15 hours that the polls are open.

  48. omnishambles

    Ashcroft National:

    CON 33 (+1)
    LAB 33 (+3)
    LIB 10 (-1)
    UKIP 11 (-1)
    GRN 6 (-1)

    Dates 5th-6th
    N=3,028
    ========================================

    Either the public is saying something, that politician really do not understand, i.e. the polls or the exist poll is going to be a complete shocker today we will have wait approx.11 hours and 40 minutes to find out, what the hell is going on.

  49. MICHAEL

    There was a brief moment when it looked as if comments regarding predictions might become too directed at people on a personal level leaving them open to endlessly defending this, that or the other, so I said the data itself would be posted anonymously.

    You’re welcome to know your own number… you’re 97.

  50. Reckon turnout will be up – maybe a long way up. My sense from social media and so on is that pro-voting messages are cutting through this time. Unrepresentative sample, of course, but still.

    A high turnout may boost LAB, of course.

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