FINAL POLLS

The day is almost upon us. Tonight we will be getting final call polls from most of the companies – though MORI and Lord Ashcroft’s figures won’t be released until tomorrow morning. In total eleven companies have polled during the campaign, I’d expect to see figures from everyone:

  • BMG already published their final call for May 2015 yesterday – results were CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. (tabs)
  • TNS‘s poll this morning – which I assume is their final one – had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. (here)
  • Opinium released their final poll this morning, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%. Full details are here.
  • Finally so far, and most surprisingly, ICM have released interim figures from their final poll showing CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%. ICM’s last five polls showed Conservative leads, so a tie is a slight surprise. Their fieldwork is still ongoing – they will release updated figures tomorrow morning – but given three-quarters of their fieldwork is done they are unlikely to change much. (tabs)

Updates to follow as polls appear…

  • UPDATE1: Panelbase have released their final poll, with topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5% – the first of the eve-of-election polls to show a Labour lead. Note that Panelbase did a separate England & Wales poll and Scotland poll and then combined them together, so their Scottish figures are from a full size Scottish survey, weighted down to the correct proportion of a GB poll. In Scotland voting intentions were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 5%, SNP 48%. Full tables are here.

UPDATE2: Tonight’s final three polls from today are out (remember, MORI, Ashcroft and the full ICM figures are tomorrow). Details are below:

  • The final YouGov poll for the Sun and the Times has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Like Panelbase, the YouGov GB poll contains a separately weighted full size Scottish sample, and in this case also a Welsh one. Scottish figures were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, SNP 48%; Welsh figures were CON 25%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, Plaid 13%. Tables are here: GB, Wales, Scotland
  • Survation in the Mirror also have neck-and-neck figures – they’ve released figures using the normal method and their new ballot paper with candidates names method, but their headline figures are the latter, which produces topline figures of CON 31.4%, LAB 31.4%, LDEM 9.6%, UKIP 15.7%, GRN 4.8%
  • Finally ComRes for the Mail and ITV are almost neck and neck – a one point Tory lead, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Full details are here

Looking at the eight final polls we have so far the figures are very close in terms of the Conservative vs Labour race. Four companies (YouGov, ICM, Survation and BMG) have dead heats between Labour and Conservative, three have one point Conservative leads (TNS, Opinium and ComRes) and Panelbase have a two point Labour lead.

Levels of Lib Dem support are also quite similar across pollsters, with numbers all between 8% and 10%. There is a little more variance with UKIP support – the difference between pollsters isn’t as huge as it once was, it’s still there in the final eve-of-election calls – varying from 11% with ICM to 16% in Survation and Panelbase. I’ll update with the final final polls tomorrow morning.


888 Responses to “FINAL POLLS”

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  1. Morning, whenever this post gets past moderation (Probably wise of AW, stops us getting too excited/his servers hammered)!

    My final YouGov weighted average:
    Con 33.7, Lab 33.7, UKIP 12.4, Green 4.8, Lib 9

    It’s a bit late to do so, but if I were to revise my final guess, it’d be:
    Lab 290, Con 275, Lib 16, Green 1, SNP 47, UKIP 0, Plaid 3
    Please, Catso, if you see this, do not change your spreadsheet to reflect this.

    Interesting also that my previous estimate was so close to the ITV/Rallings seat projections.
    Lab 288, Con 269, Lib 15, SNP 55, Green 0, UKIP 2
    Both have Lab on 288 – only a little difference between Con/Lib.

    So looks like that’ll be wrong too. ;)

  2. Almost show time. Result certain in my constituency. Overall result not certain in terms of what flavour/s of government we get after the election.

    Good luck to all taking part (activists and voters) and thanks to all posting here for fascinating analyses and breadth of knowledge and opinions.

  3. @TingedFringe

    I’ve enjoyed your daily posts.

    Thanks:)

  4. Martin,

    we will know that by the early hrs, or perhaps even sooner.

  5. @ Phil White

    Yes we will. I’m not going to trust the exit poll though.

  6. OK, I’m off to vote!

  7. “I think the country has changed.”

    ——–

    If you look at the most salient issues, the big thing that’s changed is the preoccupation with peeps flooding into the UK. (Except in Scotland, where the preoccupation is detachment from the UK).

    Other than that, have things changed that much? Tories only a bit down on 2010, Labour a bit up, but not necessarily ‘cos peeps have changed, but because the Lib Dems changed on attaining office.

  8. Catmanjeff
    Thanks, but as StatGeek said to me – we’re all part of UKPR, it’s a team effort.

    I’ll be off most of today (from 9am) – I have plenty of gardening/tidying/etcing to do, while I’m off work.
    But that’s actually a really good idea, as I’d probably get too excited and jump in to partisanship.

    So, after 9am, I’ll see you all on Saturday, after it’s potentially calmed down a bit.

  9. Thanks to Anthony for all his hard work.

    Good luck to everyone standing today, everyone telling or observing, GOTVing and helping out.

    However I’d especially like to shout out to those stalwarts of local government who are clerking, securing, issuing emergency proxies, driving ballot boxes, flying planes and helicopters with ballot boxes, running into a Leisure Centre in Sunderland, sorting, verifying, enumerating, counting, supervising, policing and finally reading out the winner in a serious manner.

    Without these ladies and gentlemen (mainly local government employees who have not had a pay rise for a long time and will be working extra hours today for little more than minimum wage) our democracy would not function.

    They will already have been at work for an hour and face a 15 hour shift of dealing with public enquiries of all sorts intermixed with boredom.

    I salute you!

  10. ANTHONY

    Thank you for an exceptional site and thank you for giving us such balanced and well informed comment unequaled elsewhere. (IMO).

  11. I think, almost regardless of the result, it is Yougov who have won the polling battle.

    There has finally been some convergence among the polling organisations (subject to Ashcroft and Mori today) to neck and neck which is what Yougov have been saying for weeks.

  12. I’ve voted!!

    Feeling good.

    Even though I was second.

  13. Pretty sure we (or, to be specific, my mum) got polled by Mori last night. Opinion poll call, but did not ask her how she voted last time.

    Unfortunately, my mum is someone who makes pollsters tear their hair out. She thinks it’s impolite to talk about politics with strangers and therefore refused to say how she would vote (or even indicate it by some of the supplemental questions). This makes her a “shy Tory”, although in reality she’s not shy about it at all.

  14. lol James

    We need a new category – “silently belligerent tories” ?

  15. If it does all go wrong for Labour today, even though the latest polling evidence has confounded the swingback theories, this link may prove of use following yesterday’s election:

    http://work.alberta.ca/Immigration/overview-of-immigration.html

    As a bonus, Katie Hopkins has confirmed that she won’t be going there under any circumstances.

  16. Some intelligent comment on betting on the general election from a Gambler here
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-odds-nigel-farage-to-lose-and-labour-to-win-the-most-seats–the-best-tips-on-betting-on-may-7-10228318.html

    Perhaps I would say that as when I used to bet regularly I did go for what I called ‘the value bets’, which for me meant those outcomes that appeared to have better odds than they should have looking at form etc

  17. Morning gang,

    Heading back home this morning to enjoy a day in front of screens of punditry and predictions. Still think it’s going to be a night of surprises – no-one really knows what’s going to happen.

  18. @ Peter Ould

    Just seen it. 273 each.

  19. NeilJ
    I never trust a gambler when it comes to predicting things – unless they’re someone like Nate Silver, who does fancy things with models and statistics.

    Gamblers are like Stock market traders – you’re literally just as likely to do as well as one, if you have a monkey and a dartboard.
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/

  20. Swingback & crossover – it’s tomorrow!

    Just wait for the opinion polls – you’ll see.

    Sorry, no prediction from me . I’m not in the business of making predictions. I never have and I never will. ((c) TBlair, for any too young to remember).

    Thanks to Anthony. It’s been good.

  21. Still undecided. One of the 40%. Not like it matters since I live in a safe-as-houses Tory seat anyway…

  22. @ Michael Elliott

    “Well we have the exit poll at 10 and then we get to listen to urgent declarations of uncertainty from John Curtice and Peter Kellner and Jeremy Vine for a couple of hours to kill the time…”

    Ah yes, I’ve seen that a few times. I think it would kill me since I’d want to know the results and would be anxious about it. I wouldn’t be able to sleep at all. And then I’d wait up for the election results. I don’t know how I’d survive. I’d probably collapse someplace. Lol.

  23. Morning all, bright and sunny here. Both my wife and I have voted, and we both voted for the candidate whose party is most likely to run the economy well, although “holding our noses” about some of their social policies. We had to vote early as the rest of the day will be spent at hospital where my wife is due to have an exploratory procedure.

    I would like to add my thanks to AW who has provided us with an intelligent website where we can comment on polling in a reasonably unbiased way, although of course we all lapse from time to time. I would also like to thank those who post here for putting up with my occasional rants in a generally amiable fashion.

    Tomorrow i will find out if my expectations about the election are wrong. If they are then I will give some thought as to why that is. If on the other hand i am proved right I will do my best not to crow about it (at least not too much).

  24. For what it’s worth my prediction for the four largest parties is:

    Con 280
    Lab 270
    SNP 50
    LD 29

    If the polls are correct then this parliament could be remembered in 100 years time.

  25. TINGEDFRINGE

    “Gamblers are like Stock market traders – you’re literally just as likely to do as well as one, if you have a monkey and a dartboard.”

    I would respectfully suggest that there are probably far more successful stock exchange traders than there are gamblers.

  26. SHOCK EXIT POLL REVEALS LIBDEM LANDSLIDE

    My wife and I were at our local polling station when it opened at 7am, and by the time we emerged at 7:05, nobody else had turned up to vote.

    So I conducted a quick exit poll, and based on the figures from that, can now predict that the seats in Parliament will be as follows:

    CONSERVATIVE 0
    LABOUR 0
    SNP 0
    LIB DEM 631
    PLAID CYMRU 0
    UKIP 0
    GREEN 0
    RESPECT 0
    SPEAKER 1
    N IRELAND 18

    The present Mrs SeenItAllBefore is a dab hand at running up curtains, so I’ve emailed Nick and Miriam to offer our services in case they need some for their incumbency at No.10.

  27. The big day is here.

    I extend my best wishes to all those who post here and are standing for election in capacity. I also extend my appreciation and good will to all those activists who put in so much time and effort supporting their party.

    And of course a thank you to AW for maintaining this site and for moderating posts in a way which has enabled anyone and everyone to make a contribution and learn. I may be wrong but this GE’s posts seem to have been far better tempered, balanced and well-mannered than I the previous GE’s.

    Goodness knows what tomo will bring, but I would urge everyone to ensure that our democracy, although it has faults, must not be subverted. I am very worried. The will of the people and Parliament must prevail.

  28. TOH
    I hope that everything goes well with your wife’s hospital trip.

  29. repost with editing corections…

    The big day is here.

    I extend my best wishes to all those who post here and are standing for election in any capacity. I also extend my appreciation and good will to all those activists who put in so much time and effort supporting their party.

    And of course a thank you to AW for maintaining this site and for moderating posts in a way which has enabled anyone and everyone to make a contribution and learn. I may be wrong but this GE’s posts seem to have been far better tempered, balanced and well-mannered than the previous GE’s.

    Goodness knows what tomo will bring, but I would urge everyone to ensure that our democracy, although it has faults, must not be subverted. I am very worried. The will of the people and Parliament must prevail

  30. @ TOH

    “Tomorrow i will find out if my expectations about the election are wrong..”

    What was/is your prediction?

  31. Ok that’s it all the talking is over.

    Off out to get the vote in in Stockton South. Not my own seat but the closest seat in which can change hands.

  32. The 3 SDLP members taking the Labour Whip or not (what does taking informally actually mean in practice) may become important in determining who gets most seats Con or Lab.

    Not my forecast by the way but many have the seats count even of within 2.

  33. MARTINW

    For several years now I have been predicting a Conservative overall majority. When asked recently i put the Tories on 324 seats enough for an overall majority in the absence of SF.

  34. Just cast my vote. Where I stay is very busy in general this morning. Lots of people up and about, expecting a high turn out.

  35. Dave M,

    Me there as well arriving about 10ish.

  36. TINGEDFRINGE

    Many thanks, fingers crossed, I love her deeply.

  37. @ TOH

    I was predicting the same until very recently. The polls haven’t moved as I thought.

  38. Jim Jam are we on the same side?

    I am looking for a Labour gain

  39. 283 Labour , 280 Tories.

  40. Just to add my thanks to AW for this site, which has kept us all going through the ups and downs, highs and lows, Laurel and Hardy. Although the odd partisan comment has crept in here and there, it’s mostly kept on subject and I’ve certainly learned a lot from those posters who are able to analyse and go into great detail about what the polls mean and who’s swinging which way. It’s been instructive, entertaining and good fun.

    Anyway, I’m off soon for a day of sitting at my polling station and knocking up. We might not meet again until the polls close……

  41. @SEENITALLBEFORE Brilliant!
    @TOH Sincere good luck today. But not with your ridiculous prediction :)

  42. @shaunjlawson: 3 polls due to be published before 7am cut-off point never were.Why? I think they’ve all woken up to flawed methodology at very last #GE2015
    Thhis guy also wrote a very pessimistic arricle for OpenDemocracy (pessimistic from a lab point of view) which basically said , polls all wrong, Cameron on easy street.

  43. Fisher with a relatively Lab-friendly (final) forcecast.

    Con: 285 (245 – 326)
    Lab: 262 (223 – 300)
    LD: 25 (17 – 33)
    SNP: 53 (45 – 57)
    PC: 3 (2 – 3)
    UKIP: 3 (3 – 4)
    Grn: 1
    Other: 1

    http://electionsetc.com/2015/05/07/election-day-forecast/

  44. @Flicktokick

    I don’t think it’s correct to say that polls can’t be published today. They can’t be broadcast (Ofcom rules) and they can’t reveal exit poll data before 10pm, but normal polls being published in a newspaper or website should be allowed.

  45. Is the exit poll GB wide?

    It would make more sense to have an Eng and Wales exit poll and another for scotland.

  46. I am going to start with a complaint. The online spinners, journalist who get the results before the tables are out, have started using the measure of VI is best for their preferred party. They now have SVI, CVI and the Survation ballot method to choose from & some use figures from different stages in the process, b4 reallocation etc, they are eschewing headline VI……grrrrr is nothing sacred.

  47. I’m no really sure I’m following all this.

    Not sure how valuable an observation this is, but so far this is what I’ve gleaned from the eve of poll polls;

    All the polls are evens or Tories +1 except Panelbase, which is Lab+2.

    All the national polls bar two have not moved since the last time.

    The two that have moved show Lab+3 and Lab+2 (ICM and ComRes). So two pollsters traditionally showing Lab well behind now also neck and neck.

    The YouGov full poll of Scotland found a small swing (1.5%) to Lab.

    Survation’s full national poll found undecideds breaking 31/23 for Lab.

    Yougov’s Nowcast shows 276/276, but their forecast is 284/263.

    Amongst the professional forecasters and commentariat, there seems to be an assumption that Cons will do better than polls suggest and are going to be the largest party, while the most recent polling evidence we have, while slim, suggests that if anything, the last minute movement has been to Labour.

    Am I missing something?

  48. @ Reggieside

    I think it just gives the number of seats for the whole country.

  49. So the polls have converged to a dead heat (or a 1% Tory lead if you want to be picky).

    It makes it a massive test of the opinion polling industry Unlike previous GEs when there was a spread of final polls so one of them was almost bound to get it right by chance, this time they will all either be right, nearly right or completely wrong.

    We should know within 24 hours if VI polls have any purpose.

  50. @alec

    I think it’s a fear / assumption (depending on POV) that the polls have systematically underrated the Tories / overrated Labour (in E&W, at least).

    Some evidence from the Survation poll that the Scottish polling has been overrating SNP, underrating smaller parties (esp. Lib Dems) by a couple of points.

    But we will find out soon enough…

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