FINAL POLLS

The day is almost upon us. Tonight we will be getting final call polls from most of the companies – though MORI and Lord Ashcroft’s figures won’t be released until tomorrow morning. In total eleven companies have polled during the campaign, I’d expect to see figures from everyone:

  • BMG already published their final call for May 2015 yesterday – results were CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. (tabs)
  • TNS‘s poll this morning – which I assume is their final one – had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. (here)
  • Opinium released their final poll this morning, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%. Full details are here.
  • Finally so far, and most surprisingly, ICM have released interim figures from their final poll showing CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%. ICM’s last five polls showed Conservative leads, so a tie is a slight surprise. Their fieldwork is still ongoing – they will release updated figures tomorrow morning – but given three-quarters of their fieldwork is done they are unlikely to change much. (tabs)

Updates to follow as polls appear…

  • UPDATE1: Panelbase have released their final poll, with topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5% – the first of the eve-of-election polls to show a Labour lead. Note that Panelbase did a separate England & Wales poll and Scotland poll and then combined them together, so their Scottish figures are from a full size Scottish survey, weighted down to the correct proportion of a GB poll. In Scotland voting intentions were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 5%, SNP 48%. Full tables are here.

UPDATE2: Tonight’s final three polls from today are out (remember, MORI, Ashcroft and the full ICM figures are tomorrow). Details are below:

  • The final YouGov poll for the Sun and the Times has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Like Panelbase, the YouGov GB poll contains a separately weighted full size Scottish sample, and in this case also a Welsh one. Scottish figures were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, SNP 48%; Welsh figures were CON 25%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, Plaid 13%. Tables are here: GB, Wales, Scotland
  • Survation in the Mirror also have neck-and-neck figures – they’ve released figures using the normal method and their new ballot paper with candidates names method, but their headline figures are the latter, which produces topline figures of CON 31.4%, LAB 31.4%, LDEM 9.6%, UKIP 15.7%, GRN 4.8%
  • Finally ComRes for the Mail and ITV are almost neck and neck – a one point Tory lead, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Full details are here

Looking at the eight final polls we have so far the figures are very close in terms of the Conservative vs Labour race. Four companies (YouGov, ICM, Survation and BMG) have dead heats between Labour and Conservative, three have one point Conservative leads (TNS, Opinium and ComRes) and Panelbase have a two point Labour lead.

Levels of Lib Dem support are also quite similar across pollsters, with numbers all between 8% and 10%. There is a little more variance with UKIP support – the difference between pollsters isn’t as huge as it once was, it’s still there in the final eve-of-election calls – varying from 11% with ICM to 16% in Survation and Panelbase. I’ll update with the final final polls tomorrow morning.


888 Responses to “FINAL POLLS”

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  1. @ TomBarry

    Well, I think a lot of people still believe that although the final opinion polls are tied we will see a 2% Cons lead when the results come in. So that changes the forecast quite a bit,

    As you point out, the Ashcroft polls do show Labour ahead in some targets well down the list. But is also shows them behind in targets which need a very small swing like Pudsey. On balance, the forecasters seem to think that Labour won’t pick up as many marginals as the UNS would predict. That is their explanation. Whereas if you simply put a 4.5% swing in England into a swingometer then you do get a good Labour victory in seats.

  2. I wonder if this means a slight uptick for Labour in Scotland and the chance to save some of their seats. Wonder what the crosstabs are.

    Either way, this is going to be a very close election.

    I’ll make only one prediction about the election.

    Tomorrow, I will take the day off (I need one anyway) and will be thoroughly entertained and enthralled watching your election results come in.

  3. I think Labour has been slightly underestimated by pollsters who have all built in an assumption of a late swing to the incumbent party. I don’t see much evidence of this in any poll, I can’t see the Conservatives getting the 2% lead to hold the advantage that these models predict.

    I think it will be close there fore, but Labour will win 270+, with the Cons just behind.

    If it comes to coalition building, I think Labour are likely to strike a coalition deal with the Lib Dems (and potentially others) – which will still be a minority government, but will give them better leverage to deal with the SNP on a bill by bill basis.

  4. @rd2012

    Your prediction and the reasoning below your prediction is very similar to mine

  5. I am amused about all this talk of an uptick in Labour and LidDem support in Scotland. Any variations recently are certainly within the margin of error. I would also note that full Scottish polls are showing very little movement since the SNP surge in early April.

    Although I am biased in support of the SNP, I would submit that many of the polls continue to weigh by recalled 2010 vote with some actually added undecided back to their recalled 2010 vote. In Scotland, this would certainly benefit Labour as it would benefit Conservative and LibDem in England.

    Lastly, it is foolhardy to discount ground game and get out the vote efforts. IMHO, Labour’s shell of an organization in Scotland cannot compete with 110,000 members of the SNP who are certainly highly committed and enthused by the polls.

    Enthusiasm will outpoll tactical or historical voting.

  6. @ Hardleft

    You simply don’t put proposals forward on which you wouldn’t have majority. It is irrespective of divisions in the HoC. First you have to have stuff that your party accepts – you craft these to get the approval of your party and make it acceptable for other parties. Can Em do this? I don’t know.

    If There is a hung parliament, and DC attempts to bring forward something and it fails, then Labour just does what it wants for 24 months.

  7. LASZLO

    It has been quite Beckett like. However I have to say at times I also found it all rather ‘Kafkaesque’… 10.30 every night we waited to hear the same result repeated, followed by endless circular discussions of constitutional niceties until the next night when the same result was posted again and ….

  8. Hi Everyone,

    Quick poll who’s still not made their minds up for tomorrow but will most likely vote.

  9. One last time to post

    Polldrums

    And then we actually have an election to comment on tomorrow :-)

  10. I’ll just wish everyone here the best of luck if they are engaged in the noble effort of getting themselves elected.

  11. @ Old Nat

    I like your schedule. It shows you that you’re not really old. In 2016, I don’t know if I’ll be able to do voter protection for a whole 14 hour day.

    Now the other question I have for you is how do you sleep? Because I know from experience that like there’s a great deal of suspense and drama. And I like to stay up till 2 or 3 am refreshing results as they come in. I like to stay up and see every last result come in. When polls close at 10 pm, you have to wait a few hours before results are known but doesn’t the suspense kill you?

    (Btw, I recently testified before the CA State Legislature that we ought to copy the UK and extend our poll closing times to 10 pm).

  12. @OMNISHAMBLES

    Great minds think alike. ;)

  13. @ Catoswyn

    Yes, but in Kaffka nobody waits for anyone. in Agatha Christie everyone waits for Poirot to measure out the judgement.

    The 10:30 waiting was for confirming or rejecting the belief. But it is regression to the infinite. There is always another day when either of the two can be confirmed. And it never happened.

    The trick is that it couldn’t have happened. Labour couldn’t have gone below 2010 unless a party on their left appears (my respect to the Greens but at the moment it doesn’t meet the criteria). It could go higher – the question was how much higher? It depended on LibDem migrants and disillusioned Labour. But over the five years we have learnt a lot about their behaviours.

    I have always said that it is not individual party preference, but distribution of VI, which makes it a zero sum. So, the conservatives allowed a rightwing party emerging on their right.

    From this it was simple: once we can see that the European Elections settles (I have never thought that the budget could make any difference as anything significant would have damaged the narratives), we also know that with slightly different boundaries we have recreated the Principles (not the values) of the 2010 VI, so Godot cannot come.

    Obviously people will vote tomorrow, and anything can come out of, but I think that voting or not voting UKIP in certain constituencies will be decisive.

    So, unless a Labour has an OM, Godot won’t come just yet.

  14. I jumped over some logical connections, but I won’t recreate them now. It is for history anyway …

  15. I’m interested in Turnout predictions. I think its a safe bet to say Scotland will be nicely up but what about rUK. It was 65.1%. Can this time around beat that??

    I’m not so sure, I think the insipid campaign and the lack of a final proper debate to go out on will not drive people out to vote, coupled with the general dissatisfaction in politics. I hope social media can help, and that the exposure of the minor party will help grab voters that would otherwise turn a blind eye.

    I have now come to the opinion that a form of PR is needed and that compulsory voting should come with it. I think that would deliver the least hated result each time. I think now politics has become so fragmented and dull in places we need to change.

    So I say PR, Compulsory voting, English parliament replacing the house of lords. That would I think hold the union together, create a better less negative politics and forcefully engage people. People that don’t engage quite frankly in my opinion need to be hit by the law to get them back onside as they are too far gone in some cases. To busy with today’s celebrity culture that dominates the media.

    I think these change would only then bring about more positive wider thinking campaigns, no longer any of the vote X get Y stuff. As you can see the last few weeks has worn me down! Cant wait for the marathon tomorrow though. Love the election night and this one will probably be quite interesting, maybe making up for the mud throwing campaign we have had.

    With the SNP block of 40-50 seats I see nothing other than a Labour lead government possible. I still think the Tories will have more seats and strategically after this, I would let Labour in deliberately to work an unstable minority gov. Ha! I have fallen into the negative trap!! My irrelevant rant is over…

  16. Some insights on this twitter feed

    https://twitter.com/jantalipinski/with_replies

    Our YouGov poll tonight shows;
    Lab with a decent lead in Wales
    Lab 48-28 behind in Scotland
    Lab underperforming in marginals (2.5%) swing

    However, the election is so finely balanced, an exceptional ground game could hand Lab key marginals we don’t think they will win

    However number two; Tories only need to outperform our figures slightly and DC will remain PM

    Sam Freedman [email protected] · 3h3 hours ago
    @jantalipinski how many seats do Labour win on a 2.5% swing?

    PK reckons 32 – I say 27-37 (hedge)

    What was the swing without the incumbency impact or does it not make a difference, sorry if i am bothering you.

    no problem. We didn’t do anything different, just looked at swing in marginals and was lower than Eng and Wales or GB as a whole

    what the certain to vote % in your megapoll? That’s one other variable that bugs me at mo.

    76 – always high in surveys just hope 76 accurately reflective of the 65-75 who will vote

    equivalent figure last time was 73 so I would say turnout will be marginally up

  17. @terryp

    Yeah I think turnout will beat 2010’s 65%. It’s a close election and that normally means higher turnout. And in the past few days, I’ve just noticed people talking about the election… People I know and strangers. I don’t talk politics with most of my friends and almost all of my family, so it’s not me bringing it up, people just seem… engaged? Maybe. I live in a safe seat too.

    But yeah, anecdotal rubbish aside, close elections usually mean higher turnout.

  18. LASZLO

    Okay, agreed, I’ll go for Beckett. :)

  19. @richard

    2.5% swing in the marginals? If that happens it’s going down to the wire, that’s right on the edge…

  20. FWIW

    I have put my CSV by PA declaration predictions in chunks at the end [p15] of the last thread. Unfortunately, the chunk containing declarations 401 to 450 is in moderation – I suspect because it has the name of the constituency of Ian Botham’s footballing career.

    Will repost tomorrow with 4x* if it doesn’t appear and the site is open to comments.

  21. omnishambles

    Yes a good point. 74 and 92 in my lifetime prove that. I love seeing people involved in the process of democracy. Lets hope 2001 will always remain the low point in turnout, that really was the election to forget.

  22. @ Mikey

    You mentioned Gary Medel & I can’t hear his name without linking him to an Alan Smith commentary I heard during a match on Sky:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtY66SINeqw

    :)

  23. I’m mystified that so many people are expecting the Tories to win the most seats. The swing to Labour in England based on these final polls is around 5%, which means that on a simple uniform swing basis you’d expect the distribution of English seats to look much more like it did in 2005 than 2010. Cue lots of hopeful handwaving about shy Tories and last minute swings to the status quo and undecideds breaking for the incumbent, I suppose…

  24. BRIAN NICHOLSON

    “Labour’s shell of an organization in Scotland cannot compete with 110,000 members of the SNP who are certainly highly committed and enthused by the polls.”

    We shall see. If there’s a bounce, perhaps it’ll be a dead-cat bounce, but I do think that the election in Scotland may tell pollsters a lot about SoS adjustments in the context of a loud, enthusiastic, self-confident and increasingly dominant party.

    (To be clear: I distinguish the SNP from the fringe nationalists talking about various nonsense. But there is going to be a cohort of Scottish voters who are not SNP supporters at a time when such opinions, to quote Flann O’Brien, are neither profitable nor popular. It might be tiny. It might be bigger than expected. It might be bigger than expected and still not enough to stem the SNP tide.)

  25. That survation poll is exceptionally “neat” – Lab and Con exactly level, with UKIP getting exactly half that vote, and Green exactly half of the Lib Dem vote.

  26. Perhaps they were as delighted by this as I am, and that’s why they released the more exact results!

  27. Looks like there is a pretty big boo-boo in the Scottish poll by Survation. They only have 31 ABs out of 1,660 sample!

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Final-Daily-Record-May-Tables-1c6d6h0.pdf

  28. Albert’s Nemesis

    The Tories had the benefit of the worst economic collapse for 80 years and a haplessly unpopular PM. Yet they did not better than Labour has over the past term.

    On the other side of the coin, Ed M has only had to face a deeply unpopular government carrying out deeply unpopular fiscal policy. So should be light years ahead – but he isn’t.

    Neck and neck. Both equally as pitiful.
    ============================================

    In agreement.

    Why?

    Despite a poorly fought campaign by the Conservatives, and people just do not trust EM, if one is to go by the polls.

    Debate, no gain for Labour
    Negative Campaigning by the Conservatives, no gain for Labour
    Approx., two weeks of not sure where we going campaigning by the Conservatives, no gain for Labour
    Dudley MP, fiasco, no gain for Labour.

    The list is endless. What does this tell us, economically majority of the people, even in the Labour heartland do not trust EM.

    I am impressed by the campaign that Labour has run, in comparison to the Conservatives, saying that Labour have had a few fiascos along the way, i.e. Ed Stone, and need of having a lectern in a garden.

    My rating for Labour on the Campaign/ Presentation/ Debate 8/10
    For the Conservative 4/10

    Who is going to win, by no of seats, the Conservative, “its always the economy stupid”

    EM should be at least 5 points ahead, he is no where near.

    This is the crucial point that many people are not grasping.

    Within 24 hours we will know. (right now 4am Thursday May 7th) .

  29. Hardleft,

    “Don’t be naughty.”

    :D

    SoCal,

    “When polls close at 10 pm, you have to wait a few hours before results are known but doesn’t the suspense kill you?”

    Well we have the exit poll at 10 and then we get to listen to urgent declarations of uncertainty from John Curtice and Peter Kellner and Jeremy Vine for a couple of hours to kill the time…

  30. HOLGATE

    BRIAN NICHOLSON

    “Labour’s shell of an organization in Scotland cannot compete with 110,000 members of the SNP who are certainly highly committed and enthused by the polls.”

    We shall see. If there’s a bounce, perhaps it’ll be a dead-cat bounce, but I do think that the election in Scotland may tell pollsters a lot about SoS adjustments in the context of a loud, enthusiastic, self-confident and increasingly dominant party.

    (To be clear: I distinguish the SNP from the fringe nationalists talking about various nonsense. But there is going to be a cohort of Scottish voters who are not SNP supporters at a time when such opinions, to quote Flann O’Brien, are neither profitable nor popular. It might be tiny. It might be bigger than expected. It might be bigger than expected and still not enough to stem the SNP tide.)
    =========================================

    In agreement, but I hope that, the SNP can achieve what the polls are saying, we need change in how UK politics is being run. I doubt SNP can attain 50 seats, it would be fantastic that they achieve at least 45 seats.

    Lab and Conservative, has lost touch with the electorate.
    Lab to SNP and Con to UKIP.

    These parties need to reengage, with their core supporters.

    And provide solutions to meet their needs, or we will see an end to FPTP, which I believe would bring in more extreme parties, religious, nationalists of various branches of various ideologues.

    Not good for the UK, and we the majority do not deserve this.

  31. You also get to see the kind of well-honed operation from the Sunderland counts that vindicates Nissan’s decision to put the factory there.

    (Personally, I find radio coverage better than TV between about 10:10pm and 1am, once the presenters have done the exit poll and shown off the visualisation gimmicks. There’s often better stuff going on, especially for data fiends, and you can flick between R4, 5 Live and Radio Scotland/Wales.)

  32. Happy polling day, everyone. Good luck to any contributors standing as candidates or helping out today, regardless of party. You’re the grease in the gears of democracy. Enjoy it!

  33. Usual cloudy/humid/hot day here in Abu Dhabi, looking at the forecast it looks like being ‘a nice day for it’ back home.

    Polls still not moved, Godot as usual is late.
    My postal ballot arrived here too late to get it back in time but makes no difference in my constituency as it is a very safe seat for the party I would have voted for.
    Listening to the radio on the way to work today the comment was made the UK Election was boring because it was so close, (they did say that was a good thing), my feeling is that it is far from boring. Most of us still do not know who will be in Government tomorrow, and I suspect after tomorrow we still may not know.
    Good luck today for all those working on the campaigns for whatever party.

  34. @ Ashman

    “EM should be at least 5 points ahead, he is no where near.

    This is the crucial point that many people are not grasping. ”

    I don’t agree. Going back just a few weeks, all the pundits expected him to be at least 5 points behind by now.

    Labour were the ones left holding the baby when the global economy crashed. It was always going to be extremely hard to recover from that, whoever had been leader. Who else could have done better? (Please don’t say his brother!)

  35. Here is my guess at who will be elected.

    CONSERVATIVE 278
    LABOUR 261
    SNP 57
    LIB DEM 25
    PLAID CYMRU 5
    UKIP 3
    GREEN 1
    RESPECT 1
    SPEAKER 1
    N IRELAND 18

  36. @ Richard

    re. the 2.5% swing recorded by YouGov in the marginals – I wonder if that has shrunk during the campaign, particularly since the anti-SNP strategy started – or has it stayed roughly the same throughout? And how does it compare to Ashcrofts’s marginal lead?

  37. @ Catoswyn,

    Are you still taking predictions? The polls haven’t opened yet, so it seems only fair! Here’s mine:

    Speaker: 1
    Con: 274
    Lab: 271
    Lib Dem: 24
    Ukip: 3
    Green: 1
    SNP: 54
    PC: 3
    Respect: 1
    DUP: 9
    Sinn Fein: 5
    SDLP: 3
    Sylvia Hermon Has Had Enough of This Nonsense Party: 1

  38. Good luck to Catmanjeff, Norbold, and anyone else here who is standing!

  39. Here is the final You Gov CUSUM for this campaign:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDSUgyNDFsVDAxeVU/view?usp=sharing

    It could not be better poised for an exciting day.

    Seven poll weighted rolling averages:

    Con – 33.7 (-0.1)
    Lab – 33.7 (+0.1)
    LD – 9.1 (+0.3)
    UKIP – 12.3 (-0.1)
    Grn – 4.8 (-0.1)

    CUSUM (4th Apr – 6th May)

    Con – in steady state since the 30th April
    Lab – a period of decline leveling off
    LD – a good finish since the 24th April, with a super boost since the 3rd May
    UKIP – since April 27th a steady fall back
    Grn – as per UKIP, but a slightly more modest pace

    Summary

    Conservative and Labour

    The race for first is deadlocked. There is nothing between them. The whole result might depend on literally a handful of marginals, and the effectiveness of ‘get out the vote’.

    Lib Dem

    The Lib Dems look to have found some renewed spirit and legs. Can this carry their MPs in Lib Dem seats over the line? Tonight may not be as bad as expected a few months ago.

    UKIP and the Greens

    They look squeezed out and rung dry. They both will rely on a big focus on a few target seats. Expect perhaps one or two good results at best. UKIP might disrupt a few of the really tight Con vs Lab marginals.

    Well folks, that’s it. I hope everyone votes with their heart. I wish the best of luck to all candidates. You know most of you will lose, but democracy needs people willing to stand up for what they believe in.

    Thanks to the activists, the cogs who shift us off our butts at election time.

    Thank to AW for being a sterling chap, and the good crowd that comes here.

    My final wish that win or lose, I hope the aftermath is handled with good grace by the winners and losers. I won’t enjoy threads of sniping and whinging that “if only X and had voted Y, Z wouldn’t haven’t have won”. The electorate will have cast their collective judgement. It is for everyone accept that judgement.

    Have a great day folks :) :)

  40. @Spearmint

    Thanks!!

  41. Labour only win from the centre, ED has taken the Party
    centre left and this will be rejected by the electorate.

    Wishing everyone regardless of views a great election day.

  42. So this it it then !

    Gulp.

  43. Half an hour till the polls open…

    Oh, and if anyone from the UKPR commentariat is going to vote on the dot of 7am, please resist the temptation to write “FIRST” on the ballot paper :)

    Goodnight all.

  44. “So this it it then !”

    ———

    ???

  45. @ Toby

    “Oh, and if anyone from the UKPR commentariat is going to vote on the dot of 7am, please resist the temptation to write “FIRST” on the ballot paper :)”

    Fantastic. Made me LOL a lot.

  46. @TOBY

    Writing first next to your preferred candidate may be accepted as expressing a voting intention.

    See this story from the European elections last year:

    “Apparently inspired by TV’s Chewin’ the Fat, one elector wrote “w***, w***, good guy, w***” next to the list of parties and candidates.

    Although unconventional, the ballot paper was reportedly declared valid as the voter had “expressed a clear preference”.

    The good guy, incidentally, was the SNP.”

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/unspun-the-politics-diary.24373276

  47. @ Phil White

    I think the country has changed.

  48. Good Morning All, lovely day for voting here in Bournemouth East.
    Ed Miliband fought a brave campaign, as did Nick Clegg, and the PM fought back, I think, having been quite shocked about how Ed did at in the first three weeks of the campaign post dissolution.

    I suspect a lot will depend on the Get Out the Vote machines in all parties. Lib Dem revival, UKIP voters and Labour in Scotland’s slight bounce-back are all variables, I think, to make the race ‘too close to call’ in terms of which of the two ‘big parties’ has the ‘plurality’ of seats.

    Good Luck everyone. It is going to be an emotional day.

  49. I shall waste my vote on Lab in Reigate soon.

    As a Lab-ite the Tory lead in the Midlands is worrying and Scotland looks like carnage.

    But here we go!

  50. I find it really hard to pronounce “plurality”. Last night I was trying to explain what’s might happen with the results to my Dad but kept getting my tongue in a twist.

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