FINAL POLLS

The day is almost upon us. Tonight we will be getting final call polls from most of the companies – though MORI and Lord Ashcroft’s figures won’t be released until tomorrow morning. In total eleven companies have polled during the campaign, I’d expect to see figures from everyone:

  • BMG already published their final call for May 2015 yesterday – results were CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. (tabs)
  • TNS‘s poll this morning – which I assume is their final one – had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. (here)
  • Opinium released their final poll this morning, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%. Full details are here.
  • Finally so far, and most surprisingly, ICM have released interim figures from their final poll showing CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%. ICM’s last five polls showed Conservative leads, so a tie is a slight surprise. Their fieldwork is still ongoing – they will release updated figures tomorrow morning – but given three-quarters of their fieldwork is done they are unlikely to change much. (tabs)

Updates to follow as polls appear…

  • UPDATE1: Panelbase have released their final poll, with topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5% – the first of the eve-of-election polls to show a Labour lead. Note that Panelbase did a separate England & Wales poll and Scotland poll and then combined them together, so their Scottish figures are from a full size Scottish survey, weighted down to the correct proportion of a GB poll. In Scotland voting intentions were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 5%, SNP 48%. Full tables are here.

UPDATE2: Tonight’s final three polls from today are out (remember, MORI, Ashcroft and the full ICM figures are tomorrow). Details are below:

  • The final YouGov poll for the Sun and the Times has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Like Panelbase, the YouGov GB poll contains a separately weighted full size Scottish sample, and in this case also a Welsh one. Scottish figures were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, SNP 48%; Welsh figures were CON 25%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, Plaid 13%. Tables are here: GB, Wales, Scotland
  • Survation in the Mirror also have neck-and-neck figures – they’ve released figures using the normal method and their new ballot paper with candidates names method, but their headline figures are the latter, which produces topline figures of CON 31.4%, LAB 31.4%, LDEM 9.6%, UKIP 15.7%, GRN 4.8%
  • Finally ComRes for the Mail and ITV are almost neck and neck – a one point Tory lead, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Full details are here

Looking at the eight final polls we have so far the figures are very close in terms of the Conservative vs Labour race. Four companies (YouGov, ICM, Survation and BMG) have dead heats between Labour and Conservative, three have one point Conservative leads (TNS, Opinium and ComRes) and Panelbase have a two point Labour lead.

Levels of Lib Dem support are also quite similar across pollsters, with numbers all between 8% and 10%. There is a little more variance with UKIP support – the difference between pollsters isn’t as huge as it once was, it’s still there in the final eve-of-election calls – varying from 11% with ICM to 16% in Survation and Panelbase. I’ll update with the final final polls tomorrow morning.


888 Responses to “FINAL POLLS”

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  1. Let me be first. I have never done this …

  2. Thank you.

  3. Anthony. Many thanks for the work you have done through the whole campaign.

    The ICM poll is a big one.

  4. Laszlo

    Gold AND silver medal for you!

  5. If I were a Tory I would be extremely nervous. No swingback, switchback, cross-over, game-changer etc. etc. etc.

    All they can hope for is a mild last-minute incumbency effect.

    Now the challenge here is that all the models (bar one that seems to have gone out of business) have assumed some sort of regression back to 2010 results, but I think they may need to take that out of their model and simply go with the average of the polls (and round up for Cons and down for Lab to give a bit of incumbency bonus).

    I REALLY wont be surprised now if Lab become the largest party, but I would have been up until now.

  6. Not a comment on this – but for Catoswyn’s benefit please note the correct spelling of my name! Otherwise l will get madder & madder at you!
    lt’s looking increasingly as if the Tories will have to rely on an incredibly late swing to deprive Labour of office. ln some seats we (Labour) believe we’re finishing more strongly than the Tories but we’ll see.

  7. @ Unicorn

    Now that there is an updated YouGov NowCast (although not much change by the look of it for the naked eye, but what would I expect?), I will set the kids when they are back from school to extract 200 seats (all the one AW listed in his previous post). I made a nice video for them how to do, so it should work. Then I will post the results by about Wednesday-Thursday (including the raw data).

  8. I do enjoy this web site and i too am grateful for all the work that has gone into it. I look at it at least once a day.

  9. BARNABY MARDER.
    Good Afternoon to you. If Labour win more than 30 seats in England and Wales from Tories and more than 9 seats from Liberal Democrats, it would be a surprise, not necessarily an unwelcome surprise, but Scotland is the big unknown, where reddish people are hoping for swing back, I think.
    Best wishes for tomorrow.

  10. Keep at it @ Barnaby!

  11. UKIP down to 1 seat in YouGov nowcast. And Labour hanging onto seemingly random seats in Scotland.

  12. There will be swingback.

    From the SNP to Labour ;)

  13. Still sticking to my prediction.

    Con 310-340
    DUP
    UKIP 5-7

    Rest – dosen’t matter

    The big question is whether Cameron, if he is a few seats short or has a Majoresque majority, does a supply and confidence with the DUP or goes into another coalition with the Libdems. My guess is the latter.

    Remain sure that JNNs A.R.S.E. will outpoll the pollsters.

  14. it seems that while we were averaging out neck and neck on all pollsters despite 4 and 5 point leads here and there, we are going to finish with everyone saying its a dead heat!!!

  15. AW

    I would like to add my thanks too. This is just about the only political site sane enough for me to post on, even though I know I am bit naughty from time to time.

  16. Edit: DUP 9 or 10

  17. NUMBER CRUNCHER says that iCM report 9% refusing to say for whom they vote. Maybe they are shy UKIP voters and shy Tories, more than shy Labour/Green etc.

  18. Interesting ICM result. It is good for Labour though just because it’s a final poll doesn’t mean it can’t be a bit of an outlier itself – Green showing very low (3%) raises questions though this may be a late shift. Not unrealistic to imagine the final Green share might be 3% or there abouts.

  19. Guardian adjusted now also. All converging on LAB and CON in mid-270’s.

  20. The polls suggest Labour as the largest party to me, and that therefore all the “legitimacy” issues were just a waste of time and space.

    If Labour plus Lib Dems is a majority, then I think that’s what will happen as it will solve the SNP problem.

    However, without there being a Lib/Lab majority then I think we’ll get a minority Labour government that will last at least three years, and possibly the whole five. I think the non-Conservative/Liberal parties are now so wedded to the idea of being anti-Tory before anything else that they will prop up a non-Tory government no matter what happens in the UK. Only a major shift in mood of the country will cause a change from that.

  21. I would also like to post my thanks. It is really nice to find a non partisan political website, in the owners postings, and in the generally civilised responses.

  22. BARNABY MARDER

    LOL. Sorry. Noted.

  23. My gut is still telling me a comfortable Tory win, close to if not exceeding an OM. I have no scientific evidence to back this up but if Com Res’ final poll is anything to go by and they were almost spot on with Tory and Labour share in 2010 then I’m inclined to believe that they may well increase their share by a percentage point or two giving the Tories around 36% and Labour around 31%.

    With Labour losing heavily in Scotland, I can see no alternative to a Conservative led Government, the only upside for Labour will be that they can get a new leader, although if boundary changes then go through, I doubt we’ll see another Labour Government for a long time!

  24. AW

    You mentioned in your prediction that you could adjust the final figures if the polls eked out a Tory lead. Do you think this unexpected ICM poll* change your view on your prediction?

    *and I have to say I was expecting a small Tory lead with ICM

  25. @Chrislane1945

    Two things will be giving the pollsters nightmares:

    (1) The undecideds

    (2) The propspect of many of the did not vote last timers, who seem to have been heavily downweighed, ceasing to be did not voters.

  26. I very much appreciate this site too. Thank you Anthony.

  27. Actually YouGov NowCast shows pretty strong squeeze on UKIP in some marginals. Will be interesting if the Labour activists can take their voters to the polling stations.

  28. @Dr Mibbles

    “There will be swingback. From the SNP to Labour ;)”

    Why? If you shift to SNP, there’s little reason to swingback. I will say that the polls might benefit Lab / Con as the election is upon us, and as people politically awaken, but Scots have been awake for months now. Not convinced that the election will be all that different from the polls.

  29. And a big thanks from me too – this is a marvelous site and I have enjoyed both the rigorous analysis and the humorous asides – an especial thanks to Anthony for his impartial hosting

  30. Worth emphasising that other final/penultimate polls aren’t picking up anything that could be described as a shift

  31. “The ICM poll is a big one”

    “If I were a Tory I would be extremely nervous. No swingback, switchback, cross-over, game-changer etc. etc. etc.

    All they can hope for is a mild last-minute incumbency effect. ”

    yawn

  32. Oops! Managed to leave out PC in my prediction (guess) on the previous thread.

    Revised figures;

    Con 279
    Lab 274
    SNP 45
    LD 26
    PC 3
    UKIP 3
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    (NI 18)

    Sorry about that.

  33. @ AdamB

    Unexpectedly, I agree with you.

  34. Why would ICM publish interim figures before their field work is concluded ? It doesn’t make any sense.

  35. I think one very interesting thing for me has been Alec’s ‘this day in’ from 2010 and AW’s notes on the projections made then.

    At that time the main topic was the Lib Dem figures and projections. This threw everyone a curve ball when the actual results came in.

    This time our conversations have been dominated by Scottish issues, neck and neck polls and ‘legitimacy questions’.

    It keep making me think what curve ball might there be this time?

  36. LASZLO

    I totally agree that nothing should be read into one poll alone.

    However, if you take everything together I think you can read quite a lot.

  37. YouGov Nowcast seems to be updating right now, keeps changing

  38. MRECHIDNA

    No problem. I’ll make the adjustment. :)

  39. Labour 291 (including G. Galloway’s current seat)
    Conservatives 265
    SNP 45
    LD 22
    DUP 9
    SF 5
    PC 3
    SDLP 3
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    Independent 4

    Remember: This comes from someone who doesn’t live in the UK, who last was there two years ago, who is neither a statistician nor a political scientist, in fact someone whose native language isn’t English. So if I get it right, this should get you thinking.

  40. @ Catoswyn

    Sinn Fein will win 18 seats and eschew its abstentionist policy.

  41. MBRUNO

    So the Guardian can have a neck and neck headline on Polling Day?

  42. @Mbruno

    For the paper I think… then do the extra interviews for getting it as accurate as possible for the inter-pollster competition. Don’t know why they’ve given the paper the data this early is – deadlines not until 10-ish.

  43. Also, Farage will win and defect to Plaid Cymru

  44. I see all our Tory friends seem to have abandoned the polls as a measure of public opinion.

  45. Wasn’t going to do this but thought why not!

    Con 320
    Lab 236
    SNP 54
    Lib 15
    PC 3
    UKIP 2
    Green 1
    Galloway 1

    NI – 18 (no idea)

    Hope I’m very wrong with the above though

  46. Oh, and I forgot the sole UKIP seat. So
    UKIP 1

  47. @ Catoswyn

    It is UKIP. It held up pretty well in the national polls, but on YouGov NowCast in the marginals it is squeezes (not all marginals). Can it be squeezed any further? Can the messages from their leaders in the last few days make them less willing to lend their votes to Conservatives? Would they actually forget the squeeze between 29 April and today? It could make all the difference (including OM).

  48. STATGEEK

    My comment about swingback from SNP to Lab was half-humour, indicating that for all the years of talk about swingback, and none appearing at all, that perhaps some may surface in unexpected placed.

    Only half-humour, because there are legitimate reasons for suspecting a ‘shy Labour’ voter north of the border, much like the ‘shy no’ voter in the independence referendum. Which was actually a thing.

  49. So after 5 years of Polls showing us Labour in front, pretty much at the death, the Conservatives are in front.

    There was not really a lot of point in following the polls all that time was there? They were ‘wrong’ for five years.

    I know, I know…

  50. @MBRUNO

    it gets their poll talked about twice as much!

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