FINAL POLLS

The day is almost upon us. Tonight we will be getting final call polls from most of the companies – though MORI and Lord Ashcroft’s figures won’t be released until tomorrow morning. In total eleven companies have polled during the campaign, I’d expect to see figures from everyone:

  • BMG already published their final call for May 2015 yesterday – results were CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. (tabs)
  • TNS‘s poll this morning – which I assume is their final one – had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. (here)
  • Opinium released their final poll this morning, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%. Full details are here.
  • Finally so far, and most surprisingly, ICM have released interim figures from their final poll showing CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%. ICM’s last five polls showed Conservative leads, so a tie is a slight surprise. Their fieldwork is still ongoing – they will release updated figures tomorrow morning – but given three-quarters of their fieldwork is done they are unlikely to change much. (tabs)

Updates to follow as polls appear…

  • UPDATE1: Panelbase have released their final poll, with topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5% – the first of the eve-of-election polls to show a Labour lead. Note that Panelbase did a separate England & Wales poll and Scotland poll and then combined them together, so their Scottish figures are from a full size Scottish survey, weighted down to the correct proportion of a GB poll. In Scotland voting intentions were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 5%, SNP 48%. Full tables are here.

UPDATE2: Tonight’s final three polls from today are out (remember, MORI, Ashcroft and the full ICM figures are tomorrow). Details are below:

  • The final YouGov poll for the Sun and the Times has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Like Panelbase, the YouGov GB poll contains a separately weighted full size Scottish sample, and in this case also a Welsh one. Scottish figures were CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, SNP 48%; Welsh figures were CON 25%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, Plaid 13%. Tables are here: GB, Wales, Scotland
  • Survation in the Mirror also have neck-and-neck figures – they’ve released figures using the normal method and their new ballot paper with candidates names method, but their headline figures are the latter, which produces topline figures of CON 31.4%, LAB 31.4%, LDEM 9.6%, UKIP 15.7%, GRN 4.8%
  • Finally ComRes for the Mail and ITV are almost neck and neck – a one point Tory lead, with topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Full details are here

Looking at the eight final polls we have so far the figures are very close in terms of the Conservative vs Labour race. Four companies (YouGov, ICM, Survation and BMG) have dead heats between Labour and Conservative, three have one point Conservative leads (TNS, Opinium and ComRes) and Panelbase have a two point Labour lead.

Levels of Lib Dem support are also quite similar across pollsters, with numbers all between 8% and 10%. There is a little more variance with UKIP support – the difference between pollsters isn’t as huge as it once was, it’s still there in the final eve-of-election calls – varying from 11% with ICM to 16% in Survation and Panelbase. I’ll update with the final final polls tomorrow morning.


888 Responses to “FINAL POLLS”

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  1. surprised by icm,usually depressing for labour. Lynton Crosby’s swingback has only got a few hours to go.

  2. @Shelts

    Assuming Clegg’s there, of course. It might be a bit more complicated if he loses and the LibDems have to go through a leadership ballot – which they would presumably want to complete before entering any coalition.

  3. Final Populus

    I can’t get my head round this one

    NumberCrunchers tweet says 33-all, Smithson’s says 34-33

    In the tables PDF I see both those numbers in different tables

  4. @JohnT

    Looks like Lib Dems are unchanged on 9% between interim and final ICM – wher did you get +2%??

    The “Wisdom poll” has them higher however! Whatever that means!

    It does look like there is a move in Labour’s direction. Is there going to be an update on the UKPR average??

  5. Populus

    Apparently numbers are with/without “the squeeze question”

    Anyone care to explain?

  6. @ Hawthorn

    I meant it in a very friendly way.

    I can’t experience such a thing here in Liverpool (the last time something like this happened was in the 1991 council elections – Broad Left – since I’ve been here).

  7. Just because Clegg loses does not mean he cannot act as leader. The Lib Dem Deputy Leader is Malcolm Bruce, who was elected AFTER he announced he would stand down in 2015

    After all Nicola Sturgeon is not going to be at Westminster..

    A leadership contest in the Lib Dems within a few months is quite likely whether Clegg wins or loses in Hallam, and if the results go badly against the Lib Dems Clegg might resign anyway. In that case I assume Malcolm Bruce would take charge of any negotiations…

  8. Some advice: if you live in a densely-populated area or in an area with a lot of students, don’t wait until the final hour to go to vote. We all know what happened in Clegg’s constituency last time. They couldn’t cope with the last minute rush. The same thing happened in parts of central London and Birmingham. And in Liverpool Wavertree they ran out of ballot papers, despite the turnout being just 61%.

  9. well, there was a notice outside my local polling station saying “anyone here by 10pm will be able to vote”

    Which might cause a delay in the exit poll…

  10. Andrew111

    Asked Anthony about that the other day, apparently exit poll will not be delayed

  11. Finally home from a walk with my parents, first time voting in a GE, no queues forming but a steady stream of people, nice to see in my notoriously low turnout seat, split my vote different ways for Westminster and locals, my part is done role on the results!

  12. I can never get over the weirdness of elections

    You go to the little polling station

    There are regular people – pensioners, families, whoever, just trickling in quietly and leaving

    This is how power changes hands at the very highest level, with huge national and international ramifications

  13. “anyone here by 10pm will be able to vote”

    Same in Wales. Anyone in the queue by 10pm can vote – queue closes at 10, polls close when the last in the queue has voted.

  14. In the context of Hallam there is a playoff game at Bramall Lane this evening which may cause delays for anyone driving through Sheffield city centre trying to get to the polling station by 10 pm!

    For a few thousand Hallam residents it is probably a good deal more important than who rules Britain as well!

  15. @rivers10

    “first time voting in a GE”

    Feels good doesn’t it

  16. Cameron appears to be nervous if his begging You Tube video released this morning is anything to go by.

    Despite the shift towards Labour in the final polls, I still cannot see beyond a Tory win, as someone said on the previous page, the postal votes could well be the key and I too expect them to be heavily in favour of the Conservatives.

    Right, work done, now off to Cardiff North to get the voters out!

  17. Andrew111

    Just because Clegg loses does not mean he cannot act as leader. The Lib Dem Deputy Leader is Malcolm Bruce, who was elected AFTER he announced he would stand down in 2015

    Well anyone can act as leader I suppose, but I think that according to the Lib Dem Constitution he automatically loses the leadership if he loses his seat. The remaining Lib Dem MPs will have to elect a new deputy from among themselves (it’s their choice anyway) and a new election for Party Leader then take place.

    The election of Bruce was extremely odd, but I suspect no one thought that Clegg was likely to be under threat at the time as he had the biggest majority of any Lib Dem MP. Whether the Lib Dem survivors are going to take much notice of someone who managed to throw that away as well as lose them so many MPs and councillors is another matter.

  18. Omnishambles
    If I’m honest I feel kind of numb, as if I’d just committed a heinous murder, not that I know what that feels like….. (scuttles away sinisterly)

  19. Dont want to change my entry into the competition however been looking at the numbers again and my view is broadly similar to previously:

    Con 292
    Lab 258
    SNP 46
    LD 28

    This is based on a Con to Lab 2% swing (Tories winning by about 3% rather than the 7% last time) providing around 25 or so seats to Lab from Con. I take the polls as broadly even at the moment, and then the shy-Tory effect not being quite as large as a +2% for Con, -2% for Lab as suggested in that long piece of detailed analysis yesterday, but enough to change say 34%/34% to say 35.5%/32.5%.

    Think my figures are quite generous to Lab in Scotland leaving them with 10 MPs.

    I know people will scream that the 32.5% for Lab is low and the 35.5% for Con is high however the polls over the last few weeks, whilst averaging somewhere around level, have had a few Con outliers on the upside, a few Lab outliers on the downside.

    12 hours time we’ll start to know…

  20. Re: Ruth Davidson’s tweet about alleged intimidation at some Scottish polling stations. If this were to be proven would there be any implication for the results affected, or would the electorate in those constituencies still have to just accept the count?

  21. I’m going to stay away from this site until late tonight, to help reduce the strain.

    I’d like to echo thanks to Anthony for the site and also to most of the posters here most of the time who keep things civil and minimally partisan. Although I’m here quite a lot there are quite a few regulars whose allegiance I’m not sure of.

    Re taking a day of work on Friday. I always used to, but now I’m retired you will all be paying me while I have the day off tomorrow :-) Thanks. And thanks in advance for the winter fuel allowance unless some politician stops it!

    See you later.

  22. 89 ballot papers issued in Darlington polling station missing the UKIP candidate…………..

    They had one job

  23. All bookies now have DC as favourite to be next PM (17 in all).

  24. New thread btw

  25. LRR

    Re: Decimal places. Oh, for sure, but what else is there to do on election day other than speculate wildly.

  26. UP AGAINST THE BIG BOYS

    Okay, we’ve gone head to head with the big boys with our own UKPR wisdom forecast. Data was collected between 2nd and the 6th of May 2015. Rivers10 setting off with the earliest of them. Our team was broad based with members from across the country and indeed with international input. We had specific resident experts from NI, Wales and Scotland to provide guidance. One hundred and eight nine people made up the core data though they were ably assisted by many, many comments from other members.

    Members of the team applied various techniques: intensive analysis of polls, swingback, memories of 1992, shy voting, hope and guesswork. Some gave very thorough forecasts, others went for a more scattergun approach. We could call the whole a rather ‘organic process’. We now have a set of figures that approximate to something anyway. Eat your heart out Nate Silver.

    There was some talk of the ‘house effect’ being left wing.

    There was a bit of haziness among some around NI which led to some under and over projections of seats. The independant tally was a bit confusing but overall it seems as a group there may be a tendency to think George won’t make it, while Lady H is the one certain thing in the whole of the election campaign. (She may even BE Godot.) One person specifically named Clare, the independant in Devon, though others may or may not have been thinking of her.

    Catoswyn failed to enter her zero’s in the independant column but this was picked up in audit by Northumbrianscot who has adapted the forecast to make sense.

    Individuals do vary in their projections and we wait to see who, among them, may have come closest to the actual result.

    :)

    By Northumbrianscot:

    Mean UKPR Wisdom of Crowds prediction:
    LAB 272
    CON 279 (or 280 if including Speaker)
    SNP 48
    LIB DEM 25
    PLAID CYMRU 3
    UKIP 3
    GREEN 1
    SPEAKER 1
    DUP 9
    SINN FEIN 5
    SDLP 3
    INDEPENDENT (Lady Hermon) 1

    Median UKPR Wisdom of Crowds prediction:
    LAB 273
    CON 278 (or 279 if including Speaker)
    SNP 49
    LIB DEM 25
    PLAID CYMRU 3
    UKIP 2
    GREEN 1
    SPEAKER 1
    DUP 9
    SINN FEIN 5
    SDLP 3
    INDEPENDENT (Lady Hermon) 1

    With thanks to @JohnG for the Median
    May 7th, 2015 at 10:29 am

  27. The most seat markets are moving in for labour in the last couple of hours they have gone from 4/1 to 7/2 now down to 3/1 at most bookmakers

  28. As usual everything goes eerily calm for a few hours until the polling stations close. Then it’s back to full throttle spin.

    A bit late, but to everyone here who has been canvassing, standing or otherwise directly involved in the election, good luck in your local area. Hope your efforts move things a little in your favoured direction whatever that may be.

  29. Has anybody had a bet on Lab for most seats at 4-1? Looks generous with these polls

  30. CASCLC
    Many thanks for the seats and declaration times CSVs. I shall spend a happy few minutes building my own “seats to watch” spreadsheet from that.

    You’re most welcome, and as you probably guessed, I built the spreadsheet because I want to use it myself. Saving it as CSV and pasting it here was hardly a big deal.

    I did make one compromise though, and didn’t put the few declarations [2 or 3?] due before midnight as 23:00 because then I’d have had to put a day column in, which would be a waste of space in the CSV.

    Anyone interested in the CSV with all constituencies in PA announced declaration times + AW’s battlefield seats.

    See p15 of http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9377#comments

  31. No-one about?

    Just popped in for a sandwich after going with the family to vote. Exit poll for the family has changed from 2010. From 6 out of 6 voting LD 4 have switched to Con and 2 Inc myself have stuck. Tried to change their minds and all were last minute decisions.

    Back out chivvying those who are still watching the tele, not long to go now.

  32. A reporter on BBC has said throughout the day that the magic figure is 326 seats. Has no one told him it is 323 or have Sinn Fein changed their position re attending Westminster.

  33. Con hold Croydon Central & Milton Keynes South

  34. Con hold Great Yarmouth with 13.8% majority

  35. Zac Goldsmith (con) has just increased his majority from 4k to 23k.

  36. Tories HOLD Brighton Kemptown.
    Tories GAIN Devon North.

  37. Pleased with the result but worried about the absence of an effective opposition.

    I really do think the “EdStone” thing came at the wrong time for Labour.It smacked of presumption and No10 garden design. Middle English doesn’t like to be taken for granted.

    It gave them an excuse not to vote for Ed, whereas before there really wasn’t one

  38. I’ve been lurking for over three years but felt the need to finally say something. Though my own feelings this moring are largely coloured by relief, I must offer my sincere condolences to the many posters on the site who do not feel the same way. Your honesty and decency are often palapable, and it is wise to remember that much more connects us than separates us. I also wish to divorce myself from the triumphalist outpourings that some have indulged in. The likes of Jim Murphy and Ed Balls have shown commendable grace under trying circumstances: surely it should be easy for the victors and their supporters to display a similar sense of graciousness.

    My quasi-polling point is one that has been nagging at me for many months. The collapse of the LD vote has already been narrativized: the electorate has punished Clegg for his decision to enter the coalition. It may be true, at least on the surface.

    But I think that what they have really been punished for is the decision to, in the words of Theodore Roosevelt, enter “the arena.” Decades of third-party electoral irrelevance had allowed many (not all) of the their supporters to avoid the consequences of the messy, painful reality of governing. Too many LD voters would, I think, have preferred a life of chaste purity. Instead Clegg and his party got their hands dirty, and I applaud them for it, including fine public servants such as Cable and Laws.

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