Two days to go. The huge rush in final polls won’t be until tomorrow, but there are still a fair number of polls out today. I don’t think any of them are proper final calls yet – most companies will produce their eve-of-election numbers tomorrow or on election day itself (it’s illegal to publish an exit poll before polls close, but it’s fine to publish a poll conducted on the eve of election on the morning of polling day). All of today’s look as if they are penultimate polls…

  • Populus today had topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
    (tabs). According to the FT we still have another Populus poll to come before the election.
  • Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 30%, LEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7%, coming into a much closer race than the rather incongruous six point Tory lead last week. Tabs are here). Ashcroft will have a final call poll on Thursday morning, so one more to come from him.
  • Survation for the Mirror have topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 4% (tabs). Survation have said they’ve got new figures everyday before the election, so we’ll be getting some new figures from them tomorrow too.

UPDATE: We now have three more polls out:

  • A ComRes telephone poll for the Mail and ITV has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 4%. Again, this is their penultimate poll, with one more to come (presumably tomorrow). Tabs are here.
  • There is also a second BMG poll for May 2015 (which in their case DOES appear to be their final call poll) topline figures are CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Full details here.
  • Finally YouGov’s penultimate poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% – still neck and neck. Their final call will follow tomorrow night.

386 Responses to “Penultimate polls…”

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  1. Suffolk Jason I think some media commentators believe anything that doesn’t involve a tory government is illegitimate,”not the british way” and unfair.

  2. Casclc
    Your UKIP numbers look odd – they’re the same as the Greens?

  3. Looks like that the server had an update/backup rather than high traffic.

  4. @GARY GATTER

    “Maybe it’s time for a social media pollster? Something like YouGov for social media.”

    ———-

    We could call it YouSelf, or YouSelfie…

  5. MICHAELSIVA

    No problem. I can see you might have missed the beginning of this as it was about 3000 posts ago!

    Anyway, I have your prediction entered :)

  6. Suffolk Jason

    Most of the discussion on legitimacy are missing the point. It’s the electoral system that is producing results that lack legitimacy not the way that parties do or don’t combine after the election.

    When we get results like Lab and Con at 34% getting 250 – 300 seats each, and UKIP at 10-15% getting 2 or 3, we have a system that isn’t fit for purpose. There are plenty of other examples like Con in Scotland (as regular losers under FPTP). Neither of the big two parties can really claim legitimacy, it’s just the system is biased in their favour.

  7. BRUMBLE

    “How likely do you think the DUP joining up with the Conservatives is, based on the debate?”

    Their official line is that they could go with either Labour or Conservatives, but I think they would fear losing local votes in NI if they were held responsible for propping up a Conservative government that was seen as having brought in a lot of public spending cuts. Remember that NI is a very highly public sector economy, dependent on government spending.

  8. SUFFOLK JASON
    “I don’t get the arguments about “legitamacy”. Why would a party that comes second but could gain the support of the HofC be illegitimate?”
    —-

    They wouldn’t be, it’s a way of poisoning the well so that if Cameron loses then Miliband will find it harder to govern, even though he has every constitutional right to. There’s a good editorial on it in tomorrow’s Guardian

  9. SWEBB

    Both UKIP and Greens will be hit by First Past the Post.

  10. ROGER BELL

    Have your prediction :)

  11. BRUMBLE

    Can I stop worshipping yet?

  12. Am going to stop collecting predictions tonight. Will resume again after 9am tomorrow. Last prediction taken was ROGERBELL.

    Predictions close at 10pm tomorrow night (6.05.2015)

  13. Richard,

    reverse your LAB/CON and you will be close to the result imv.

    Tories headed for 290 seats plus.

  14. Heather

    I’m astonished at that

  15. Can anyone recall a poll over the last five years that had a higher % of switchers to UKIP amongst 2010 Labour voters than 2010 Conservative voters?

    If you can’t (and I couldn’t until a few minutes ago) then you haven’t looked at the 2010 vote tables in tonight’s ComRes. 14% of 2010 Lab going to UKIP, compared to 12% of 2010 Con. In their previous poll it was 4% from Lab and 15% from Con. Massive churn amongst Kipper supporters in the course of a few days? Or just weird and wacky shifts in cross breaks that might cause a few question marks to be raised over the reliability of the headline findings?

    At least the Express is doing it’s bit to make sure that KIpper supporters revert to type in the final ComRes poll tomorrow:

    https://twitter.com/hashtag/tomorrowspaperstoday?src=hash

  16. Mark
    I’m not talking about seat projections I’m referring to Casclc’s averages of the last 10 and 20 polls

  17. Small factoid I’ll throw out since there has been discussion regarding “vibes” in seats. My uncle (who lives in Lancaster and is good friends with several local labour activists) is visiting us for a couple of days and he said that his friends said they are incredibly confident they’ll win Lancaster and Fleetwood. Not much of a surprise there but the interesting fact was that apparently support for the Greens in Lancaster itself has been very impressive. Anyone want to predict a Green third place?

  18. @ Michael,

    I’d be shocked if Ukip didn’t come third in vote share.

    @ Mark,

    1) No.
    2) IIRC support for the SNP is pretty even across class lines, but I could be wrong about that.
    3) No.

    The short answer on the SNP’s popularity is that the party now appeals to three constituencies:

    – Scots who want independence.
    – Anyone But Labour voters who know the Tories and now the Lib Dems can’t win FPTP seats in Scotland.
    – Leftwing voters who feel Labour is too rightwing.

    Add these three groups together and you easily have a winning percentage under FPTP, and possibly a majority of Scottish voters altogether.

  19. @cats
    My fourpenneth

    Lab. 280
    Cons 278
    Liibs. 23
    SNP. 40
    Others. 29

  20. @Catoswyn

    “Can I stop worshipping yet?”

    Give it five more minutes.

  21. @ExileInYorks – I totally agree. Legitimate government and a FPTP system are mutually exclusive.

  22. Rivers10,

    Two friends of mine live in Lancaster and Fleetwood (one just cast her postal vote for Labour there, the other is voting Labour in Sheffield Hallam).

    Cat Smith is going to win. Her support in Lancaster seems very heavy, but you’re right that there is some visible Green support. Their literature seems to be going much harder on the council elections than the general election – the council is currently a Lab-Green coalition.

    It would not surprise me if they came third.

  23. Mark

    1. My guess is not quite; recent polls suggest tiny majority for No.

    2. Not equally supportive, but I think the gap between ‘classes’ is narrowing.

    3. No, genuinely not in any way like BNP. SNP is about nationalism in terms of residence, not place of birth or ethnicity. It’s a mainstream centre-left social democratic party, not an extreme right fringe. And it’s been the party of government for 8 years.

  24. @rivers10

    Presumably that’s from the University of Lancaster. I’m not too surprised given the demographics of the seat.

  25. @SWEBB, thanks for pointing out, apologies all.

    Average of last 10 polls:

    Con 33.4%
    Lab 33.1%
    LibDem 9.2%
    UKIP 13.3%
    Green 4.8%
    Others 6.3%

    Average of last 20 polls (fieldwork ending 29th April or later):

    Con 33.6%
    Lab 33.4%
    LibDem 8.8%
    UKIP 13.4%
    Green 4.9%
    Others 6.3%

  26. More weird and wacky revelations from tonight’s ComRes cross breaks:

    The parties most likely to benefit from tactical voting to keep another party out are………

    wait for it………

    In 2nd place UKIP with 28% of their support being a tactical vote to stop another party from winning (rather than one for the party they want to win)…….

    And in 1st place the Greens on 35%.

  27. More on the DUP (at the risk of repetition f.p. threads)

    I think they will go with whatever looks like the will of the GB people; and to help whatever government emerges to make it work, if that is needed (no doubt in return for some favours).

    I don’t think they want to be seen as pivotal and determinative. Far too much responsibility to bear, in terms of subsequent local elections in NI.

  28. Latest prediction (previously forgot about Bradford West)
    Respect to George

    Con 283
    Lab 263
    SNP 53
    LibD 26
    DUP 9
    SF 5
    SDLP 3
    Ind/UUP 1
    PC 3
    UKIP 2
    Grns 1
    Respect 1

  29. Wild guesses:
    Con: 272
    Lab: 281
    LD: 18
    UKIP: 3
    SNP: 54
    PC: 3
    Green: 1

  30. @Valerie

    Catoswyn has stopped collecting entries for the evening, so you may need to repost your entry. Don’t want you to miss your chance of glory!

  31. Prof H

    Fully agree about the DUP. They won’t rock the boat. I’m still not sure what the Lib Dems will do.

  32. Catoswyn 9.14

    My comment wasn’t aimed at you! So, no apology required.

    I was merely remarking that my prediction was so long ago, I couldn’t find it.

    Glad you’re recording it, as I would probably lose it again.

    I expect to win, not only because I will be right, but because I will be right twice.

  33. Here’s my prediction…

    Con – 288
    lab – 265
    Lib Dem – 22
    SNP – 29

  34. Rich
    “Some of the Facebook anti Tory campaign are really nasty and offensive.”

    Some of the newspaper anti Labour headlines are really nasty and offensive and as evidence, I offer tomorrow’s.

    There is no such thing as a political argument that remains fair and balanced. I’m surprised you seem to think it’s only the Tories that are attacked by their opponents.

  35. To understand legitimacy, you need to appreciate the dual role of HMG as both the government of the United Kingdom and the government of England (thanks to the botched 1997 devolution). A Labour/SNP government would be the first time that HMG didn’t have legitimacy as the government *of England*.

  36. Suffolk Jason

    “@ExileInYorks – I totally agree. Legitimate government and a FPTP system are mutually exclusive.”

    I wouldn’t go quite that far as it sort of works for a two party system, but we haven’t really had a two party system for a long time. However, even in a two party system, there is still a big flaw in FPTP in that the entry barrier for any new party is very high.

  37. Ok hello everybody. Lemme make a guess too.

    CON 289
    LAB 260
    LD 25
    SNP 50
    UKIP 2
    Green 1
    PC 3
    NI 18
    Spkr 1
    Respect 1

    In NI

    SF: 6
    SDLP: 2
    DUP: 9
    Other: 1

  38. Thank you Spearmint for answering

    What do you mean though by ” IIRC” – sorry for naïveté

  39. Time for the penultimate:

    On This Day in 2010 on UKPR

    Today, Wednesday 5th May, 2010, saw the excitement ramping up as we entered the final day before the vote.
    We had the anticipated flurry of final polls, which I’ve cut and pasted below. [Ipsos Mori released theirs on election day, with 36/29/27].

    CON LAB LDEM Con Lead
    Populus 37 28 27 +9
    ComRes 37 28 28 +9
    Opinium 35 27 26 +8
    ICM 36 28 26 +8
    YouGov 35 28 28 +7
    Angus R 36 24 29 +7
    Harris 35 29 27 +6
    TNS BMRB 33 27 29 +4

    We now know that all the polls overestimated Lib Dems, and underestimated Labour (except Ipsos M) while apart from TNS, the Con scores were clustered around their final tally. If the same pattern was to happen this time – oh no – that’s a 2015 issue, and quite out of place here.

    @Toby kicked off the thread, predicting –

    “Con 285
    Lab 225
    LD 110”

    These kinds of numbers were fairly typical, understandably given the Lib Dem polling.

    @Paul Marks deserves a mention for this effort –

    “Tories: 307 (36%)
    Labour 223 (29%)
    Lib Dems 89 (27%)”

    Getting the big two vote share bang on, as well as the Con seat count precisely, but again under selling Lab in favour of the Lib Dems.

    @Glen Otto was more bullish –

    “I am more optimistic, I can see a substantial Tory majority.”

    As did many in the Tory party, it seemed.

    In general, while I haven’t had the time to whizz through the entire set of predictions made On This Day in 2010, the gist of most of them largely mirrored the opinion polls in terms of vote share – as I suppose we should expect, but with more variance over the seat numbers.

    A surprising number of posters got Con seats in the right area, but although Lib Dem and Labour totals showed a relatively wide range, everyone got the Lib Dems too high and Labour too low.

    Sometimes, posters really do get things right, as @Steve showed when he posted this –

    “He said their [Cons] canvassing was very strong all over the constituency, they’re very confident they are going to have a 3000 to 4000 majority here [Pudsey].”

    This was quite high up Cons target list, and although they only achieved a majority of 1,800, it just shows that we shouldn’t always dismiss posters statements and opinions quite so readily as sometimes happens.

    Not everyone gets it right though, as @Graham A D informed us, (very loudly) –

    “LABOUR TO HAVE THE LARGEEST SEAT WITH THE SECOND SHARE OF VOTE.GB TO REMAIN PM BUT WILL RESIGNED NEXT YEAR DUE TO EYE PROBLEM. DC TO STEP DOWN AS LEADER

    I BETTED £500 YESTERDAY.”

    Apart from not being able to locate caps lock, Graham was £500 poorer, and possibly demonstrates why bookies odds should be taken cautiously.

    Overall though, the tetchiness of the last few days seemed to have evaporated from UKPR. Perhaps posters felt there was no point arguing anymore, and with a matter of hours to wait for the result, there seemed to be little sense in waging battles and point scoring.

    Instead, the overwhelming tone seemed to be one of gratitude, with @Thomas Widmann providing a good example –

    “I’d also like to thank Anthony warmly for running this site.”

    Many others posted similar sentiments, which just goes to show that without Anthony’s sterling work, the therapy sessions and addiction clinics within the NHS would be that bit more strained by the demands of one time UKPR readers and posters, desperately attempting to navigate their way back to real life.

    Tomorrow, the results come in, and On This Day in 2010 on UKPR has its final outing.

    More later

  40. @ Rivers10

    Lancaster and Fleetwood is a very varied onstituency. If UKIP voters stay at home (it is a Labour seat), or vote for Conservatives, the Green could be third.

    I have fond memories of Fleetwood: marvellous fish (it was) with a slice of Chorleywood white slice bread, margarine spread on it and Liebfraumilch. Sometimes in the 1990s.

  41. If anyone wants all these polls a little more visually:

    C L U LD G

    Phone:
    35 32 14 9 4 (3-5 May) ComRes
    32 30 12 11 7 (1-3 May) Ashcroft
    Online:
    34 34 12 9 5 (4-5 May) YouGov
    33 34 16 9 4 (4-5 May) Survation
    34 34 12 10 4 (3-5 May) BMG
    34 34 13 10 5 (1-3 May) Populus

    Averages:
    34 33 13 10 5 Total
    34 31 13 10 6 Phone
    34 34 13 10 5 Online

  42. @Prof H

    Under the scenarios that most of us seem to be expecting, there will be a vote of no confidence tabled before too long, so the DUP are going to find it difficult to keep sitting on the fence. And if the first one fails, there may be several more to put them on the spot again.

    Also, if the parliament really is on a knife edge, I just wonder whether Sinn Fein might be tempted out of abstention in order to bring down a sitting UK government by the ballot box. Especially if the DUP are seen to be propping them up.

  43. @Alec

    Well now you’ve gone and made me look silly :)

    But yes, how wrong we all were – at least re Labour & the LibDems. I wonder where our biggest blind spot will turn out to be this time round…UKIP vote share? LibDem holds v losses? SNP?

  44. Sorry, when I said that Lancester and Fleetwood is a Labour seat … It had a conservative MP in 2010. It won’t happen in 2015.

  45. Here is the updated CUSUM including tonight’s poll (YG data 7th Apr – 5th May):

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDMFEyNURHaU1oR1U/view?usp=sharing

  46. The weather forecast for Thursday is ‘intervals of clouds & sun’.

    Pollsters & politicos used to say that the weather made a difference to the election figures, I’m not sure it’s as true as it was, but I thought I’d mention it

  47. Good evening all.

    So most polls are still showing neck and neck!!

    My prediction is that the Tories combined with the Lib/Dems will have more seats than Labour and the SNP combined.

    DC will remain in government leading a coalition just short of a majority but will have special support from the DUP who will not vote against the government on anything for 5 years.

    The polls all show a complex parliament but in reality it will be sorted out within days.

    I’ve seen a snap shot of tomorrows front page of the Sun..Who needs photo shop? ;-)

  48. @Toby

    What happened to decimal places? It’s a 2.5% av Con lead by phone and a 0.25% av Lab lead online.

  49. @ExileInYorks – Yup I did exaggerate.

    I’m definitely left of centre (voting Lab in GE and Greens in local elections). If we did have proportional representation- it’s quite likely that we’d end up with a Tory/UKIP/DUP colaition- as they could gain approx 34%/15% and 1% respectively of the total vote. So PR would almost certianly not give me (in the short-term) the government I’d like to see. However because it’s fair and means that every vote counts, I think in the medium to long-term, PR is good for democracy and progressive politics.

  50. Apologies I just realised I git a bit mixed up with my prediction…

    It should have read:
    Con – 288
    lab – 265
    Lib Dem – 22
    SNP – 46
    others – 29

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