Two days to go. The huge rush in final polls won’t be until tomorrow, but there are still a fair number of polls out today. I don’t think any of them are proper final calls yet – most companies will produce their eve-of-election numbers tomorrow or on election day itself (it’s illegal to publish an exit poll before polls close, but it’s fine to publish a poll conducted on the eve of election on the morning of polling day). All of today’s look as if they are penultimate polls…

  • Populus today had topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
    (tabs). According to the FT we still have another Populus poll to come before the election.
  • Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 30%, LEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7%, coming into a much closer race than the rather incongruous six point Tory lead last week. Tabs are here). Ashcroft will have a final call poll on Thursday morning, so one more to come from him.
  • Survation for the Mirror have topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 4% (tabs). Survation have said they’ve got new figures everyday before the election, so we’ll be getting some new figures from them tomorrow too.

UPDATE: We now have three more polls out:

  • A ComRes telephone poll for the Mail and ITV has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 4%. Again, this is their penultimate poll, with one more to come (presumably tomorrow). Tabs are here.
  • There is also a second BMG poll for May 2015 (which in their case DOES appear to be their final call poll) topline figures are CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Full details here.
  • Finally YouGov’s penultimate poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% – still neck and neck. Their final call will follow tomorrow night.

386 Responses to “Penultimate polls…”

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  1. ComRes are doing another poll before the election (Smithson)

  2. Michael siva
    Put a bet on.
    Paddy Power have Con at 286.5 and Lab at 263.5 mid points. They have rarely got it wrong. As I said earlier there are 5 seats in it, If Con get to 291 on a late shy Tory swing, DC has 25 LD plus UKIP (if any) plus DUP = > 323. He wins and Vince keeps his Ministerial car and chauffeur.

  3. Catoswtn

    Dead easy –

    Open your document and click Share on the top right. Under the section titled “Specific people can access,” click Change.

    In the Sharing Settings dialog, choose Anyone with the link. Then at the bottom of the dialog, under access, click Can view and, if necessary, change it to Can edit. Make sure you click the green Save button when you’re done.

    SORTED.

    Thanks for you all your work in making this such a vibrant community

  4. The NI Leaders Debate Highlights:

    Much interest in the SNP, austerity, and who they would vote with..

    *Unionists saying that the SNP illustrate a better way to do nationalist politics (compared to SF).

    *DUP saying they could agree with SNP on a lot of issues other than union and saying they have a legitimate voice.

    *SDLP saying that they’re the only party certain to turn up vote against the Conservatives.

    *SF struggling to defend abstentionist position in a balanced parliament.

    *People on all sides talking about the need to rethink the Union to make it work better for all its constituent parts.

    *All the parties are basically anti-austerity though SDLP and SF most so.

    *SDLP saying they’re neutral on the Union of England and Scotland.

  5. david in Oxford

    If those figures are right and Con end upwith 23 more seats than Lab then I cant see how Labour could credibly try to form a government

  6. Latest YouGov poll (04 – 05 May):
    CON – 34% (+1)
    LAB – 34% (+1)
    UKIP – 12% (-)
    LDEM – 9% (-1)
    GRN – 5% (-)

  7. It’s all down to those marginals. Can Labour win a few extra ones eg in London?

  8. INWB

    Aw. Thanks a lot. Very helpful

  9. I’m kinda getting the impression it’s Lab 34%/Con 34%.

  10. @ Cover Drive

    “It’s all down to those marginals. Can Labour win a few extra ones eg in London?”

    Indeed. Or either of the two main parties.

  11. Silly minor question but interesting for me, % of vote wise which party will come third, LD or UKIP?

  12. I get a strong sense that there is an increasing acceptance from the media that the outcome is going to land squarely in the zone where Cons aren’t quite large enough to survive a QS, but are still larger than labour.

    There is quite a bit of focus on vote efficiency like this appeal in the Telegraph for Con/UKIP waverers “The 26 seats where a vote for Ukip could make Ed Miliband prime minister”.

    The Guardian meanwhile has a piece on tactical voting which for Scotland hasn’t bought into JM’s line as they are pitching “vote SNP get Miliband” vs “vote LD to get Cameron”. Advice for elsewhere is also given but not quite so binary.

    In general my impression of the tone of the last couple of days is that the focus of both Con and Lab is increasingly about positioning for the morning after, rather than having any real hope of shifting opinion.

  13. Average of last 10 polls:

    Con 33.4%
    Lab 33.1%
    LibDem 9.2%
    UKIP 4.8%
    Green 4.8%
    Others 6.3%

    Average of last 20 polls (fieldwork ending 29th April or later):

    Con 33.6%
    Lab 33.4%
    LibDem 8.8%
    UKIP 4.8%
    Green 4.8%
    Others 6.3%

    Forgive the decimal place. Used it to avoid appearing as if Con had lost a percentage lead.

    Really not a lot of meaningful movement. Possible uptick for LibDems?

  14. So – another tie.

    But more importantly, this evening’s UKPR server failures are a rather bad omen for Thirsday night.

    Perhaps I’ll just have my mead for company after all…

  15. @ Anthony Wells

    Not surprisingly, but it seems that UKPR is struggling with the traffic in the evenings of tHe last three days.

  16. @profhoward

    “Unionists saying that the SNP illustrate a better way to do nationalist politics (compared to SF).”

    I hope that their Scottish brethren were not watching, if only for the sake of their blood pressure.

    “DUP saying they could agree with SNP on a lot of issues other than union and saying they have a legitimate voice.”

    Again drawing a distinction between themselves and recent Tory rhetoric.

    “SF struggling to defend abstentionist position in a balanced parliament.”

    Think that might change if/when there is a generational change in SF. Won’t happen while Adams / McGuinness are in charge.

    “People on all sides talking about the need to rethink the Union to make it work better for all its constituent parts.”

    Howling in the wind there. Tories think they have a tactical advantage now with the present imbalances.

    “SDLP saying they’re neutral on the Union of England and Scotland.”

    They’re being a bit coy there. They would be delighted if Scotland left. Most of the geographical, historical and cultural links that the NI unionists have with Britain come via Scotland. There’s no logic for NI staying in a UK minus Scotland other than financial dependence.

  17. Com Res Moe/telephone take your pick but confirmed again that this isn’t a trend that’s being picked up elsewhere

  18. PROFHOWARD

    The NI Leaders Debate Highlights:

    Many thanks for the precis. Wishing I’d taken the trouble to watch it live. Will try to watch tomorrow.

    *Unionists saying that the SNP illustrate a better way to do nationalist politics (compared to SF).
    *DUP saying they could agree with SNP on a lot of issues other than union and saying they have a legitimate voice.

    Not music to Con ears?

    *SDLP saying they’re neutral on the Union of England and Scotland.

    The obverse of the above to Lab ones?

  19. Here are my predictions:

    Conservative 308
    Labour 245
    Liberal Democrat 22
    Democratic Unionist 8
    Scottish National 46
    Sinn Fein 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Social Democratic & Labour Party 3
    UKIP 4
    Alliance 1
    Green 1
    Respect 1
    Speaker 1
    Independent 1

  20. @ ProfHoward

    Thank you for the NI update.

  21. Ha! Correctly called YouGov’s figures for Labour and Conservative.

    Kneel before Brumble, mortals! Kneel!

  22. BT

    I have your prediction

    :)

  23. I wouldn’t actually recommend watching the NI leaders debate.

    I gave the high points (from a wider UK perspective) so you wouldn’t have to :)

  24. Is all this polling worth the money ?Dunno about you but it seems there is too much .

    Almost as if you just keep polling til you get the result you want -or is it to find the holygrail of late swingback thingymejig.Laugh is tory papers get labour leads and vice versa

    And whats this with publishing on election day -is nothing sacred ,getting as bonkers as the americans calling the result while people are still voting on the west coast..

    Anyone know what polls are out on friday -just in case I get withdrawals.

    Will post my prediction of the belgium/north korean election tomorrow

  25. Btsays
    A bit optimistic?
    On what grounds?

  26. I don’t get the arguments about “legitamacy”. Why would a party that comes second but could gain the support of the HofC be illegitimate?

    Imagine a return to 3 party politics- just Labour, Conservative and UKIP left.

    Labour 35% of seats and votes
    Conservative 33%
    UKIP 32%

    Would a Conservative/UKIP coalition be illegitimate?

    Alternatively- imagine just Labour, Conservative and Greens left

    Conservative 35% of seats and votes
    Labour 33%
    Greens 32%

    Would a Labour Green coalition be illegitimate?

  27. Had a flutter on Labour most seats at 4.7 to 1 this morning.

    I see that’s now down to 4.1 to 1.

    Seems a big shift in just 14 hours.

  28. BOBINNORFOLK
    “went to Norwich North today good vibes from the blues.”

    Now there’s a funny thing. I was talking to our Labour agent today. He said he went to Norwich North yesterday and said there was a growing confidence that Laboir had got the seat.

  29. @ ExileinYorks

    I think that message (tactical voting) will come tomorrow really.

    Today was firmly: get the OAP to the voting station, everyone should bring a friend to the voting station.

  30. @Anthony

    It could be because the threads are too long. Maybe you should do what you used to do and open new threads with a summary blog post and write it up later.

  31. The forecast models are looking increasingly wacky – how can they/someone assume this late swing to the Tories to give the seats the models seem to suggest when the polls a day out are showing no such thing?

    I feel there’s a sense of ‘double counting’ going on where opinion polls are adjusted and weighted by turnout and past recall to account for don’t knows etc but yet the models take this and overlay further swing to Tories

  32. Polls still to come? after YouGov/BMG tonight

    UPDATED LIST

    Wednesday

    ICM as per Smithson list yesterday
    Panelbase ditto
    Opinium ditto
    TNS ditto

    plus

    Survation per AW above
    YouGov final call ditto
    Populus ditto
    ComRes per Smithson tonight

    Thursday final calls

    Ashcroft per AW above
    Ipsos ditto

    Some of the stragglers could be on Thursday not Wednesday I guess

    Any more??

  33. @Prof Howard

    We all admire your devotion to duty.

    How likely do you think the DUP joining up with the Conservatives is, based on the debate?

  34. will this be the first general election where the winning party get less votes than the number of electors not voting? That for me is the big question of legitimacy

  35. So BT Tories gain though down around 3% on the last election?

  36. Well, either all the opinion polls are wrong except for Comedy Results, or the forecasters are going to look collectively rather silly in two days time…

  37. March 24th 11:49 on my post I predicted:

    Labour 290-301
    Tories 265-270
    Lib Dem 25

    I think Labour would need to be another point higher than tonights YouGov to achieve it but I think the Tories will be 265-270.

    Anyone remember Gordon Brown being referred to as a squatter after the last election?! I wonder what they will be calling Cameron on Friday?! Not a winner for sure!

  38. PROFHOWARD
    I wouldn’t actually recommend watching the NI leaders debate.
    I gave the high points (from a wider UK perspective) so you wouldn’t have to :)

    LOL and thanks for the warning.

  39. Bella Caledonia has highlighted a list of the Scottish seats with the Yes/No percentages from September. Must have been a considerable bit of work, as not all LAs published the results by constituency.

    For those interested, it can be found here.

    http://democraticdashboard.com/data/scottish-independence-referendum/

  40. Daily star survation poll on friday

    Albanian scottish poll rumoured.

  41. @ Norbold

    As they say: “phone a friend”. I did. He hopes for red, but he was really uncommitted.

    If it happens, it would be a big one for Labour.

    I haven’t talked to this friend for two years … What do elections do … But he is a friend alright even if he was a bit puzzled when I told him the reason of my question.

  42. JohnG

    That does look like you got generous odds, good luck with that.

  43. Even Con 34, Lab 33 is a 10 seat Lab lead – and that is factoring in a smaller than average swing in key marginals and Ashcroft data.

    How people come to the conclusion that Cons being most seats ahead is a foregone conclusion is beyond me. Lab most seats at 4/1 looks like a steal.

  44. “If those figures are right and Con end upwith 23 more seats than Lab then I cant see how Labour could credibly try to form a government”

    1892: Tories 313, Liberals 272, Irish Nationalists 81
    1923: Tories 258, Labour 191, Liberals 158

    Take a guess who formed the Government after those elections. Hint – it wasn’t the Tories.

  45. Sorry, Catoswyn, I thought folks were putting up poll predictions in order to generate serious discussion…I didn’t realise it was just a game! If that’s the case, let me put my money where my mouth is:

    Lab 292
    Con 260
    LDs 19
    UKIP 7
    SNP 48
    PC 3
    Green 3
    Resp 1
    DUP 7
    SF 5
    SDLP 3
    Ind 1
    Speaker 1

  46. Telegraph reporting NS boasting of having talks with EM, assume it’s being denied.

  47. Here are my predictions:

    Conservative 279
    Labour 290
    Liberal Democrat 23
    Democratic Unionist 8
    Scottish National 35
    Sinn Fein 5
    Plaid Cymru 3
    Social Democratic & Labour Party 3
    UKIP 1
    Alliance 1
    Green 0
    Respect 0
    Speaker 1
    Independent 1

  48. SNP appeal

    As a non Scot, can anyone explain. Do majority of Scots now want independence? Is the Scottish middle class equally supportive as the Scottish working class? Are SNP at all nationalists like BNP?

  49. Anyone wanting to warm up for Thursday (or find a distraction!) may find this interesting – coverage of the Alberta provincial elections in Canada (results tonight / early morning Wednesday UK)

    One link:
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-results-follow-cbc-s-coverage-today-1.3060309

    In short: very likely that a 44-year Conservative government will finally be thrown out, and replaced in Canada’s most right-wing province by the NDP (read: Labour). Huge implications both provincially and Canada-wide.

  50. @Anthony Wells

    Reminder – you were going to post at the weekend at how the Swing to Labour is actually higher in E&W than the base line poll because of the drop in support in Scotland but this is balanced out by ????

    Also most of the prediction still have a swing back and incumbancy margin already in them don’t they? So if (a big if) the polls get it right as neck and neck at 33:33 in E&W on polling day what seat ratio might we expect?

    Just for the record from local campaigns. I expect Lab not to gain Broxtowe but gain Amber Valley from boots on the ground responses.

    h

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