Two days to go. The huge rush in final polls won’t be until tomorrow, but there are still a fair number of polls out today. I don’t think any of them are proper final calls yet – most companies will produce their eve-of-election numbers tomorrow or on election day itself (it’s illegal to publish an exit poll before polls close, but it’s fine to publish a poll conducted on the eve of election on the morning of polling day). All of today’s look as if they are penultimate polls…

  • Populus today had topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
    (tabs). According to the FT we still have another Populus poll to come before the election.
  • Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 30%, LEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7%, coming into a much closer race than the rather incongruous six point Tory lead last week. Tabs are here). Ashcroft will have a final call poll on Thursday morning, so one more to come from him.
  • Survation for the Mirror have topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 4% (tabs). Survation have said they’ve got new figures everyday before the election, so we’ll be getting some new figures from them tomorrow too.

UPDATE: We now have three more polls out:

  • A ComRes telephone poll for the Mail and ITV has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 4%. Again, this is their penultimate poll, with one more to come (presumably tomorrow). Tabs are here.
  • There is also a second BMG poll for May 2015 (which in their case DOES appear to be their final call poll) topline figures are CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. Full details here.
  • Finally YouGov’s penultimate poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% – still neck and neck. Their final call will follow tomorrow night.

386 Responses to “Penultimate polls…”

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  1. I had no idea there were so many lurkers.

  2. @James

    So the “interesting” BMG poll turned out to be less than whelming.

    [If Shakespeare was permitted to make up words, why can’t I?]

  3. @OldNat

    Does that mean that you find that UNS is still a pragmatically useful device in England (or E&W)?

    No – the coarse grain of analysis makes most such calculations misleading. I place my confidence in ‘ElectionForecast swing’. As you know, this is a combination of national, regional and constituency-specific – all precorrected for poll size and House Effects. Other models may have equally effective algorithms.

  4. ComRes for @DailyMailUK / @itvnews: 3pt Tory lead

    CON 35(+2)
    LAB 32(-1)
    LD 9(+1)
    UKIP 14(+1)
    Grn 4(-3)

  5. Oh, an odd factoid. Early this evening I put you tube on for grandson – he likes watching reviews of toys put up by older boys. Every single you tube video was preceded by a conservative advert. Must be costing them a fortune – sadly he won’t be voting till 2030.

  6. I agree with @kam – went to Norwich North today good vibes from the blues.

  7. According to Sky News Clegg and Cameron spent the day deep in each others territory. Make up your own joke. :-)

  8. Oow. That’s why the bookies odds on Lab went out today?

  9. Great ComRes for the Tories after a set of disappointing polls earlier in the day.

    A YouGov +2 now for them should seal the deal.

  10. I still am of the firm opinion that there will be a very late swing to the Tories on the day itself but not enough to give Cameron overall victory.

    So my prediction is:

    CON 310
    LAB 240
    LD 27
    SNP 48
    UKIP 1
    Green 1
    PC 3
    NI 18
    Spkr 1
    Respect 1

  11. REALIST

    Have got your prediction :)

  12. Expect to see the ComRes poll across the Murdoch press tomorrow morning with headlines about the Conservatives “surging ahead”.

  13. GARY O

    They are both groping in the dark

  14. Geoff and Rich: two great posts. Enjoyable stuff!

  15. This is back to normal for ComRes, not that dramatic

  16. @Catoswyn
    My comments from some quiet observation over the past few months
    C. 271
    L. 281
    SNP. 55
    Lib. 18
    DUP. 9
    SF. 5
    PC. 4
    SDLP. 3
    UK. 1
    Green.1
    LH. 1
    Spkr. 1

  17. @ Toby

    Could be significant though, needs backing up elsewhere obviously.

  18. DAIBACH

    Love it! You should be a script writer on the Archers

  19. Could be half an hour of fame for comres

  20. @DaveyM

    Lab 280
    Tory 267
    SNP 50
    Lib/Dem 29
    DUP 9
    SF 5
    SDLP 3
    PC 3
    UKIP 2
    Independent 1
    Speaker 1

    ———————————————————————————-

    This is a more believable seat distribution that some of those predictions I’ve seen elsewhere….

  21. ROBERT NEWARK

    Have your prediction :)

  22. @Robert,

    Wow. If Lab only got 240, that would be a disaster. lol

  23. So, is TND bluffing (or is it double bluffing?) with no tweet?

  24. @ Robert Newark

    Yeah right.

  25. Could the Ed Stone be a Kinnock moment?

  26. Rich

    No, the pictures of him unveiling it in the Rose G will go down in history

  27. There’s been a YouGov marginal poll that has gone completely unremarked upon.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/f4s48f0t5h/Final_LACS_Marginals_and_Animal_Welfare_Results_Website.pdf

    It’s commissioned by League Against Cruel Sports but also asks for VI. By my calculations it shows about a 5.75% swing to Labour, which if replicated on the day could see Labour take as many as 70 seats off the Tories.

    There is a caveat. It was carried out from the 21st-28th of April, however there has been at most a 1% shift to the Tories since then. The sample size is nearly 3000.

    Am I missing anything?

  28. @Peter Ould

    True. But my point is that you don’t need EWMA analysis a 3-point swing hitting us over six days.

    If the change is subtle enough to call for your sophisticated methods, then it’s not going to affect the outcome of the election in any material way.

    Let me repeat. I am not questioning that there is a place for your methods. I have applied them myself on several occasions since you introduced them. It is just that I think the time has passed for looking for tiny trends.

  29. This website is buckling under the pressure

    Anthony – you need more gigawatts or it will be dead by election night. Too much traffic.

  30. @Rich

    So far all pollsters converging bar ComRes and Ipsos-Mori

  31. As you say, we will what happens, but DC will be PM on Friday morning with between 285 and a majority, if the Grand Alliance then choose to to kick him out, that will have repercussions at the next election, maybe as soon as September, and Labour will rue that choice, SNP cannot lose either way, and good on them!

  32. Looks as though it’s polldrums all the way. I get the impression that anybody that pretends they know who will win the most seats is guessing – probably heavily influenced by their own politcal hopes.

  33. Com res telephone?

  34. In the spirit of this site: the prediction competition is meant for fun… no negative comments please on anyone’s prediction even if you disagree with it.

  35. Hopefully the UKIP gaff tonight will help the Cons.

  36. Good ComRes for blue. Lab need a good YouGov to settle nerves.

  37. Predictions, (thought i’d give it a go)

    CON – 277
    Labour – 268
    SNP – 52
    Lib Dems – 25
    Ukip – 3
    Green – 1

    Democratic Unionist – 9
    Sinn Fein – 5
    SDLP – 3
    Plaid Cymru – 4
    Independant – 1
    Respect – 1
    Speaker – 1

  38. Seen quite a few posters defaced belonging to both Labour and Conservatives, but regret to say without much wit. Inclined to think culprits unlikely to have much in way of party commitment otherwise they’d have better things to do at moment.
    Re. Comers – MOE?

  39. @unicorn – I don’t use the EWMA for my forecasting. It’s just a tool to identify statistically significant movements in retrospect.

  40. Rich
    The lump of brick was his Kinnock moment!

  41. Does anyone actually think a second election would yield a different result?

    I could perhaps see UKIP or Green voters move to the main parties, perhaps even LD voters…..which is why I found it odd that Clegg raised this today

  42. Rich

    Depends where you are on the political spectrum as whether it is a disaster or a triumph!
    I have said for a long time that the swing will come at the time pencil is in hand.

  43. @Statto

    Here are my predictions:
    Conservative 273
    Labour 278
    Liberal Democrat 25
    Democratic Unionist 8
    Scottish National 49
    Sinn Fein 5
    Plaid Cymru 3
    Social Democratic & Labour Party 3
    UK Independence Party 2
    Alliance 1
    Green 1
    Respect 1
    Speaker 1

    —————————————————————————————–

    This is also a seat distribution prediction I can buy into….

  44. Via NC:

    ComRes/Mail/ITV (EU referendum):

    IN 56
    OUT 34

  45. EVERYONE

    I’m thinking of turning the prediction data into a google doc (spreadsheet) and then posting a link. I’m not experienced with this and I think it might mean people would have to access via a google account. Any thoughts?

  46. @Peter Ould

    Apologies. I was jumping to conclusions based on your earlier teaser.

    Still looking forward to the point when you unveil your new evidence…

  47. @BubHubbleBub

    “Interesting to see the uptick for the Liberals, might just be noise but I have a pet theory the endorsement and partial endorsements from the lion’s share of broadsheet press might have helped them a bit.”

    or maybe it will work the other way….

    There are a lot of voters out there who have nothing but contempt for the broadsheet press, and rightly consider them to be biased right-wingers.

  48. UKIP gaffe? What have I missed?

  49. EVERYONE

    I will also be posting the raw data spreadsheet without names (I have these) to avoid a rush of posts along the lines of ‘that’s great/awful’ being directed at individuals.

    Okay

  50. @santafemad

    I’m polishing up my cv already! Trouble is sometimes reality is more far fetched than fiction.

    @catoswyn

    Thank you for your intervention. My suggestion as to what may happen post Thursday is based on one scenario which is no more or less valid than anyone else’s.

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