We have good four or five polls in the final Sunday papers before the election, here is what’s appeared so far:

Opinium in the Observer continue to show a very tight race, in this case with the Conservatives just ahead. Topline figures are CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%. Full tables are results are here. Note that while the Observer describe the poll as the last Opinium/Observer poll before the election that doesn’t mean it’s Opinium’s final call, they’ll hopefully have another poll in the week.

ComRes have a new telephone poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror. Their topline voting intention figures also have the race right down to the wire – CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%. Interestingly this is a telephone poll rather than an online one, in the past ComRes have tended to do online polling for their Sunday newspaper contract and phone polling for their daily newspaper contract. It suggests we may not be getting an online ComRes poll we can compare to the election result. Tabs are here.

Survation for the Mail on Sunday have Labour ahead. Their topline figures are CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%. Their poll also included a version of the question prompted with candidate names in respondents’ own constituencies (something MORI used to do in their face-to-face polls at election time and Angus Reid did in their election polls in 2010) – that produced figures of CON 29%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%. Tabs are here.

The YouGov poll for the Sunday Times continues to float around neck-and-neck. Today’s figures are CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%. YouGov and the Sunday Times also have a new (separate!) Scottish poll, that has topline figures of CON 17%, LAB 25%, LDEM 5%, SNP 49%.

325 Responses to “This Sunday’s polls”

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  1. Cameron was out very early on the morning after the no vote for the Scottish Independence referendum, not trying to unify the Union.
    But it seemed a partisan move to wrong foot his opposition.
    He did not act like a statesman for the whole country.

    If he has the most seats but not a majority, I believe this time due to his previous experience, and his future legacy thoughts, this will out way any advice given for short term party advantage.

    I believe he will act for the good of the country win or lose.

  2. Magpie – thanks for your reply. This situation I was imagining was a Labour minority on, say, 280 seats supported by the SNP on 50, but that relationship breaking down with the SNP start blocking Labours legislation . Assuming the SNP maintain their Anti-Conservative stance, I was wondering if there was a simple path for Milliband to force a new election?

  3. “I believe he will act for the good of the country win or lose.”

    If he believes, as presumably he does, that the good of the country is best served by him continuing to be PM, he will do his best to retain the keys to no. 10.

    I think he will do what Baldwin and Lord Salisbury did and dare his opponents to chuck him out in parliament.

    There is less understanding of parliament now than was the case 100 years ago, and with the right wing press, any parliamentary move to remove the tories will be met with howls of opprobrium and squeals about “legitimacy”. all nonsense of course, but could create a powerful narrative.

    The rise of the SNP has been a godsend to the tories, and Cameron in particular.

  4. Thanks JP fascinating stuff.

    So in 2015 its Stanley Cameron,Ed Mcdonald and Herbert Clegg .

    But no Nigel ,Nicola and Natalie in 1924 -presumably irish nats were off getting over the civil war.

    TND on sunday politics confirms yougov will have a poll 1030pm wednesday and they are doing an exit poll going back to a group seeing whether what they said wednesday they did on thursday-to be published at 10pm thursday.

  5. TheGreeny

    Well, if Miliband and the leader of the Tories could agree a pact, then maybe so. But for that they would both have to believe they would gain from doing so, which is the tricky bit.

    That might also be the thing that would push the Westminster parties towards some form of grand coalition though not over any short timeframe. However realistically I don’t think the SNP will piss about with silly games – I think they will have a laser focus on the moment that can really benefit them and will be constructive otherwise in order to avoid simply being perceived as wreckers.

  6. All of the conjecture could be pointless on May 8th though if one of the following 2 things happens :

    1/ Lab largest party and vote share (as currently predicted on Yougov nowcast) and no route to a majority for Cameron so unable to use the legitimacy argument in the press either. DC quits before he gets chucked out – I’m not sure it would benefit him to hang on in those circumstances.

    2/ Con largest party by some distance and they are the only viable government, with C&S from LD and UUP.

    Given the current polls and projections Option 1 would seem more likely than Option 2 unless you are Professor Steven Fisher (Elections Etc) or are expecting swingback / shy tories etc.

    Reality is that a small swing either way from dead level in the polls could make one of these two situations happen and remove the uncertainty about what government we get.

  7. Post 2 – Charts Updated :))

    Suggest a peek at the UK trend charts. Quite static.

    The calendar monthly averages show that the SNP VI is firming up. It looks as if the Con VI in Scotland is dropping off a little (it’s just 3%, but of 18%, that’s a sixth of their previous VI).

  8. @Andrew

    Yes we should be encouraging people to vote, but in ways that doesn’t mess with the electoral system. As it is, politicians can use postal voting to their advantage. They shouldn’t be privy to any aspect of the postal votes prior to the big day.

  9. Andrew111

    I believe that people who are resident in the UK, but are working abroad, should be able to vote by post or by proxy. However, I do not see why people who are not resident in the UK, not paying UK tax, and may well have no intention of returning to the UK to live here, should have a right to vote. When I was much younger, I emigrated in order to get a job, but until I eventually returned to the UK it never even occurred to me that I should vote in a UK election.

  10. I’ve been doing a bit more reading about precedents set in previous elections which were as close as this one is expected to be.

    The scant precedent which exists is: A government which has failed to pass its own QS (Queen’s speech) abstains, rather than voting against the opposition leader’s QS. This precedent could explain why Ed M can say that he won’t need the SNP to get him into government. Remaining there is, of course, an altogether different ball game.

  11. Amber

    Interesting. I wonder if the Tories would stick to that precedent.

  12. @ Gary O

    I’ve been wondering about that too.

  13. And we have a new thread.

  14. Watching Sunday Politics TND and the other panalists seem to think in a hungParliament Cameron would stay in charge, Tories having most MPs meaning Ed wouldnt be legitimate or something? They didn’t however explain how the Tories can stay if they don’t have the votes?

  15. NEILJ

    Regarding the most recent announcement from Clegg on his last red ‘green’ line.


    Assuming the SNP maintain their Anti-Conservative stance, I was wondering if there was a simple path for Milliband to force a new election?

    You really ought to read the FTPA 2011, which you can read here. Better still, you can download it in PDF from that link for reference – it’s only 10 well spaced-out pages. The key section is on P3 of the PDF re Early parliamentary general elections.

    It’s possible but highly unlikely that Con + Lab would agree simultaneously on an early election, but if they did they could vote for it at any time, provided they have 434 seats between them, which is a near certainty. Such a Con/Lab pact could also abolish the act, but I suspect Con would not do that because it would give Lab complete power to set the date of the election, and Lab might also be nervous of handing that power to the next Con PM.

    The resignation of a PM is not mentioned in the Act. My guess would be that the cabinet office would take soundings among the cabinet and senior Lab MPs to see if anyone is prepared to offer themselves as caretaker PM. If they were all united with the [now ex-]PM then Brenda would be advised to let whoever is then Con leader to have a go. That would then trigger the SNP tabling the motion: “That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government”, which by then would be the Cons, of course.

    Lab would then have to decide whether they really can afford to abstain on the SNP motion. If they do, we have an even weaker Con minority government. If they don’t, then they have a fortnight to provide a Lab PM heading another Lab minority.

    It would be difficult in the subsequent GE for Lab to be believed that it was the nasty SNP who drove them to it, and the tory press line that Lab’s brief minority had been illegitimate because the Cons had more seats wouldn’t help them.

    The above said, I can’t see Milliband trying it. If, as seems likely, he manages to climb the greasy pole I suspect he’ll want to prove his abilities rather than behave like a spoilt child.

  17. There is a lot of discussion about UKIP votes ‘returning to Tories’. In a recent radio 4 interview, Farage claimed that 2/3rds of his supporters are ex Labour voters.
    Firstly, is this true and if so, are there any places where UKIP are likely to take seats from Labour?

  18. Well Farage has to say that because his will almost certainly stop the referendum he so desperately wants because DC will not get a majority significantly because of UKIP – he always claimed EM would back a referendum but has miscalculated and has discovered EM does not trust the voters.

    I may have believed him more if he had stood in a Labour seat.

    If there is no DC majority then if he goes in with the LD then in my opinion as a Tory he can ditch the damn thing – in my case it is one of the least reasons I will vote Tory – having said that it would be a good thing to get it out of the way – I think the likelihood of an out vote is very low.

  19. UKIP must be fuming. I bet they though they would be the talking point of the election – but it is not, the real surprise package is the SNP. This, perhaps, is part of why theUKIP vote seems to be dropping; lack of extra publicity…

  20. ‘ EM would back a referendum but has miscalculated and has discovered EM does not trust the voters’

    Or it’s irrelevant as you point out in your third paragraph…

  21. This place has become almost as bad as the Guardian comments section, almost completely partisan and completely missing the point. Nigel Farage has stated, on multiple occasions, that in marginal seats which UKIP cannot win his supporters should lend their votes to the Tories as that is the only viable path to an EU referendum, not all of them will listen, even if only 1/4 of UKIP’s 12%ish supporter listens it will lead to a lot of Conservative holds, and with Tactical Tories sparing LibDem blushes in Lib/Lab marginals with sitting Libdem MPs, This election wasn’t going Labour’s way even before the EdStone/Milstone debacle and one of the most effective attack ads I’ve seen in a UK election.

    The Conservatives will take 300+ seats and Cameron will stay PM, bet on it, I have.

  22. Quintus

    Are you complaining that this forum has forgotten it is a forum about opinion polls and many comments are becoming increasingly partisan, or are you upset that the majority of partisan comments don’t agree with your partisan comments?

  23. ICM/Guardian (Sheffield Hallam – named candidates, chg vs 2010):

    CON 12 (-12)
    LAB 35 (+19)
    LIB 42 (-11)
    UKIP 7 (+5)
    GRN 3 (+1)

  24. NumbrCrunchrPolitics @NCPoliticsUK

    ICM/Guardian (Sheffield Hallam – no names, chg vs 2010):

    CON 21 (-3)
    LAB 34 (+18)
    LIB 32 (-21)
    UKIP 8 (+6)
    GRN 4 (+2)

  25. Quintas,

    my view is similar to yours, however relax and let it unfold.

    Individuals have different views and within a couple of days of
    the GE bias will be more pronounced, it’s human nature.

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