Royal baby bounce?

There won’t be one. Stop being silly.

If you’d like a longer answer. The birth of Prince George had no discernible effect upon the polls, the Royal Wedding had no discernible effect. The Diamond Jubilee was followed by a couple of polls with a reduced Labour lead, but nothing that couldn’t have been normal sample variation. Events with direct relevance to the election normally have little or no effect on voting intention; the leaders debates had minimal effect, scandals and policy announcements normally have minimal effect. The idea that something with such a complete disconnect from the things that determine voting intention will have an impact is somewhat fanciful.

The only direct impact it makes is the news agenda. If any of the parties were planning on a big policy announcement over the weekend it will now have to struggle against the royal baby to get in the papers and the news bulletins.

Of course, should the polls move in the next few days I expect history will record that the royal baby won the election for David Cameron, in the same way that we pretend that the bug in Gordon Banks’ tummy lost the 1970 election for Harold Wilson. In reality I expect any change in the polls over coming days will be noting at all to do with royal procreation, and everything to do with the existing drivers of voting intention – people making their minds up or changing their minds based on perceptions of the leaders and parties, of competence in running the economy and public services, and hopes of fears of what sort of government will emerge from a hung Parliament.


722 Responses to “Royal baby bounce?”

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  1. PETE B

    The ROI was once part of the UK and sent MPs to Westminster: a special case. I heard that the large number of Irish in London and Liverpool was a factor in allowing them to vote in the UK, the Labour government enjoyed their support.

  2. I can’t believe we can go through the whole ge campaign without scandal or sleaze – amazing if many dustbins have been rummaged through and nothing of note has been unearthed

  3. Prof
    Can UK citizens vote in RoI general elections? If not, they shouldn’t vote in ours. They chose to leave the UK, so why should they retain voting rights?

  4. @mcclane
    You ask for a source for Yougov Con one point ahead of Lab. It is on Britain Elects twitter site.

  5. Pete B

    British citizens in ROI may vote at Dáil [Parliament] elections, European elections and local elections; similar to Irish citizens in UK.

    The only restriction on British citizens is in referenda in the ROI where only Irish citizens can vote.

  6. MAC IN LONDON

    The chap who wrote the article is in fact featured in a Conservative Home article discussing ‘sensible Labour’ people.

  7. Prof
    Ok, that’s fair enough then. Thanks, I didn’t realise that. Still seems a bit weird though.

  8. Prof Howard
    Well done all the way from Berlin for keeping them in check. We have a pre GE invasion of partisans on here but your voice is one of reason.
    Much appreciated.

  9. Prof Howard
    Well done all the way from Berlin for keeping them in check. We have a pre GE invasion of partisans on here but your voice is one of reason.
    Much appreciated.

  10. REGINALD MAUDLING

    The Daily Telegraph did find out that Ed Miliband had a number of very able and attractive girlfriends in the past such as Stephanie Flanders.

  11. The reason for large percentages of postal votes in some regions is here

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/105896/Plymouth-GE2010-report-web.pdf

    “The four regions which had had all postal ballots
    at the 2004 European Parliament elections continue to top the league table. In
    the North East, where there had also been an all-postal referendum in
    November 2004, more than a quarter now vote by post -an increase of greater
    than seven percentage points since 2005”

  12. Can UK citizens vote in RoI general elections? If not, they shouldn’t vote in ours. They chose to leave the UK, so why should they retain voting rights?

    Maybe it’s our way to make recompense Ireland for what Cromwell did.

    ;-)

  13. Thank you Bristolian Howard. Your kind words much appreciated.

  14. MILLIE
    ‘ An average of 19% is higher than I expected, but over 50% in individual constituencies? Amazing.
    Highly suspicious. As simple as that.’

    Yes if I wanted to rig a ballot, I’d definitely do it in some of Labour’s safest seats.

  15. @ Pete B

    Which commonwealth countries are not foreign countries?

  16. @OldNat

    Just looked now at the Slurry shot, not sure I’d have chosen that one to tweet! Disappointed I’m not in any of Jim’s pictures. I’m obviously less photogenic than a slurry tanker :-(

  17. Kellner appears to be ignoring his own polling data again, and listening too much to his paymasters.

  18. Any news on tonight’s Yougov?

  19. @rivers10

    Tonight’s YouGov:

    CON 34 (=)
    LAB 33 (-2)
    LIB 8 (=)
    UKIP 13 (+1)
    GRN 5 (=)

    Fieldwork 1st-2nd

    Also there’s a new thread

  20. profhoward

    REGINALD MAUDLING

    The Daily Telegraph did find out that Ed Miliband had a number of very able and attractive girlfriends in the past such as Stephanie Flanders.
    ———————————————————————

    she also dated the other Ed.

    I don’t think she counts, she may just have a fetish for anyone named Ed.

    She is defiantly a striker.

  21. New Fred[erica?]

  22. Discrepancy alert:

    Based on a 1pt CON lead the Telegraph/John Curtice are predicting LAB 292 CON 274

    Based on a 1.6% projected CON lead Election Forecast (used by the BBC and others) are predicting CON 278 LAB 271

    The difference in the Labour score seems too great to be the result of doing 0.6% better. Is Curtice still using UNS in E&W rather than the advanced EF model that includes Ashcroft data (adjusted to current national polls) and other factors?

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