So far we’ve had two new GB polls today, both continuing to show the race pretty much neck-and-neck:

  • Populus’s twice-weekly poll has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4% (tabs). Note that Populus appear to have made a slight methodology change – their tables include a reallocation of don’t knows, which has the effect of slightly increasing Lib Dem support and decreasing Labour support.
  • Meanwhile a new Survation poll for the Mirror had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 3% (tabs are here)

Elsewhere Lord Ashcroft released his latest, and final, batch of constituency polls – ten constituency polls in a mix of different types of seat. The full details are here:

  • Four of the polls revisited Con-Lab marginals where Lord Ashcroft’s previous polling had found a tight race. In Norwich North (2 point Labour lead), Pudsey (1 point Tory lead) and Wirral West (3 point Labour lead) he found little difference from his previous polls, in Croydon Central he found better news for the Conservatives, with a four point Tory lead compared to a four point Labour lead in March.
  • Another poll revisted the LD-Con marginal of North Cornwall, finding the same two point Liberal Democrat lead as the previous poll in March.
  • Three of the polls were newly surveyed seats – Battersea had been speculated as a seat where the Tories were in trouble, but Ashcroft’s poll found no swing since the election and a twelve point Tory lead. In Stourbridge he found a 4.5% swing from Con-to-Lab, leaving the Conservatives only 2 points ahead. Best of all for Labour was Peterborough, a seat the Conservatives won in 2005, where Ashcroft found a 6 point swing to Labour, putting them 2 points ahead.
  • Finally Ashcroft repolled two Scottish seats. In Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (currently the only Conservative seat in Scotland) he found the SNP increasing their lead, up to eleven points from two points last month. In East Renfrewshire, Jim Murphy’s seat, he found the tide moving away from the SNP (possibly due to tactical voting by Tory voters) – in April his poll gave the SNP a nine point lead, the latest poll has them leading by only three points.

Weekly Round up

I’m not going through all this week’s polling like I normally do on Friday’s – frankly there has been too much – but just to complete the record set, the UKPR polling average for the final week of the campaign shows figures of CON 34%(+1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 14%(nc), GRN 5%(nc), pushing the Tories slightly ahead.

The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015, Elections Etc, the Guardian and YouGov are below, with the majority of them now suggesting the Conservatives will win slightly more seats than Labour, though only Steve Fisher’s model predicts a Parliament where any sort of Conservative-led government looks feasible.

Elections Etc – Hung Parliament, CON 290(+4), LAB 258(-5), LD 25(-1), SNP 53(+2), UKIP 3(-1)
Election Forecast – Hung Parliament, CON 280(-3), LAB 268(-2), LD 27(+3), SNP 49(+1), UKIP 2(+1)
May 2015 – Hung Parliament, CON 275(+5), LAB 267(-6), LD 27(+1), SNP 56(+1), UKIP 2(-1)
Guardian – Hung Parliament, CON 276(+3), LAB 267(-1), LD 27(-1), SNP 55(nc), UKIP 3(-1)
YouGov Nowcast – Hung Parliament, CON 272(+2), LAB 276(-1), LD 24(-3), SNP 52(+2), UKIP 3(nc)


429 Responses to “Friday polling round up”

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  1. First

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  3. Okay so where are we?

    “e UKPR polling average for the final week of the campaign shows figures of CON 34%(+1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 14%(nc), GRN 5%(nc), pushing the Tories slightly ahead”
    ____

    Team blue just edging it.

  4. First

  5. Thanks Anthony. There is a lot to take in. I didn’t realise Labour were 4 points ahead in Croydon in March and are now 4 points behind so a 4% swing from Lab to Con in one month. That is very very surprising.

  6. Ahem, as I said last Fri, Tories would open up a 1% lead this week. Now hoping my election forecast comes true (or, preferably, is beaten)! (It was Con 290-295, Lab 255-265,….)

  7. Mikey, can’t all be swing so one or both polls wrong or both within moe of a small lead or dead heat.

  8. Adam B

    We will see. You cannot discount a swing back to Labour. The Tories will do very well to get beyond 285 seats.

  9. Rather a shame he chose Battersea, which was never likely to be really marginal this time. Enfield Southgate would have been an interesting one, with all its resonance and with it rumored to be a close contest on the ground despite being well down Labour’s target list.

  10. Jim Jam

    Yep.

  11. A week in a holiday cottage with no Internet and I come back to more Polldrums.
    Looks like we’re heading for the Constitutional Crisis after all.
    My favourite bit of politics this week being the Lord Ashcroft focus group member in Paisley who explained his support for the SNP by referring to the choice of other (establishment) parties as being “Different shades of sh1te”.
    That’s the most insightful analysis of the mood in Scottish Politics I’ve seen since the referendum!

    (With naughty word hidden for automod – Was Lord A who quoted it not me)

  12. they probably were in a 1% lead. However, the last 4 polls have been Lab + 2, Lab + 1, level & Lab + 1. Suggests at least an even race. (The MORI poll was sampled rather earlier – fieldwork finished on the 28th.) The Tory supporters can say they’re ahead if they want, but they probably aren’t.

  13. ” In East Renfrewshire, Jim Murphy’s seat, he found the tide moving away from the SNP (possibly due to tactical voting by Tory voters) – in April his poll gave the SNP a nine point lead, the latest poll has them leading by only three points”
    ________

    It’s quite ironic JM is relying on Tory votes to hold onto his seat!!

    “A vote for the SNP will let the Tories in”………….Jim says.

    Hmmmmm!!

  14. Some on Twitter (Smithson) are expecting ComRes tonight. They’ve already polled this week though so maybe he’s confuse?

  15. Northumbrian Scot

    If you liked that, then you will probably also like this from Lord A

    “as one of my confused Twitter correspondents put it, having absorbed Scottish Labour’s election message: “Is Jim Murphy now relying on Tories to vote Labour to keep the Tories out?””

  16. Thanks for doing all the hard work so everyone doesn’t have to Anthony; you are the Flash of the polling world.

    Are you going to do a final UKPR average on Wednesday night?

  17. I suspect Lord Ashcroft heard the rumours about Battersea and decided to poll it rather than focusing on either Enfield Southgate or Ilford North which are true toss up’s

  18. @EvergreenAdam

    As a local can’t see Enfield Southgate going over this time… though I said that about Finchley & GG and the poll suggested otherwise. Certainly does seem to be quite a high CON>LAB swing in North London. Partly because there were a lot of LDs last time, possibly partly other reasons too though I’m not sure what they are.

  19. @ Jack Sheldon – Smithson not often wrong. Perhaps they’re doing some extra in the run up to the big day. If so it will probably be 10pm. The Mail’s political editor hasn’t pre-hyped it so MOTWYW.

  20. FPT

    @HEATHER PETO

    Thank you. You answered my question.

  21. NORTHUMBRIANSCOT

    Hope you had a good holiday.
    ……….

    “My favourite bit of politics this week being the Lord Ashcroft focus group member in Paisley who explained his support for the SNP by referring to the choice of other (establishment) parties as being “Different shades of sh1te”
    ___

    LOL

  22. The Sun is tweeting:

    “THE TORIES’ top team has smashed Labour’s in a poll that hands the Conservatives a five-point lead just a week before the Election.”

    Let’s wait and see!

  23. Here’s a minor potential constitutional crisis for you all…

    If NC doesn’t manage to hold on to his seat, who will represent the LibDems at the VE ceremony next Friday?

  24. let’s not forget what happened in1992. Historically, Tories always do better than the polls predict……don’t rule out Tories having 305+ seats. UKIP likely to do worse than expected with much of their support going to the Conservatives.

  25. First time the sun has directly realised a You Gov Poll early
    Would have to be a outlier as it would be a large large swing from Yesterday.

  26. Bantams

    Presumably that’s tonights Yougov so another example of balanced reporting from the Sun there, given all the recent labour leads and ties that Yougov has given us.

  27. @DCON

    “OLDNAT: Please educate me then”

    ————-

    Yes, Scotties are frequently complaining we don’t understand them or their situation, and filling us in with their superior understanding of economics etc.

    For example, how oil prices wouldn’t go below $99 dollars a barrel (and to contemplate anything else was scaremongering…)

  28. The Sun story is old one on the Ipsos poll which also had questions about the cabinet – Osborne beating Balls, May beating Cooper and (interestingly) Clegg beating Harman

  29. One additional forecast to add to the list (for those who didn’t see it mentioned earlier in the day) – my latest UK-Elect forecast is:

    May 1st UK-Elect Forecast

  30. BM11 – wouldnt necessarily be an outlier given a MoE of 3%

  31. Sun

    read that tweet carefully – are they talking about the daily YG?

  32. The Sun tweet links to an article published “a day ago”. It’s behind the paywall, but maybe yesterday’s MORI?

  33. Ah, Jack best me to it….

  34. Muddy Waters

    That ties in nicely with the “week to go” wording.

  35. Carfrew

    Clearly the oil price is an outlier.

  36. AC “Team blue just edging it.”

    Er, no (however much you like saying that sort of thing).

    Rather, the figures mean a minimum 3% swing Con>Lab since 2010 (excluding ground war which some reports say Lab is doing well in).

  37. Might the Sun story be about the Mori poll which showed the Tories 5 ahead? As discussed on the prior thread, Mike Smithson is saying that Mori were going to pull this poll themselves because the cross-breaks were crazy.

  38. May2015’s 5 day rolling average showing a slight Lab lead at present in contrast to the UKPR average.

  39. If the SUN are tweeting that Poll rather than mentioning their own poll does that mean You Gov is inconvenient for them and therefore shows a Labour Lead or at the most a tie.

  40. Sorry – the Mori thing is now in triplicate.

  41. BM11

    I was wondering exactly the same. Why tweet a day old story?

    Look, a squirrel….

  42. BM11

    We can infer it’s not a 5 point lead at least.

  43. WHERE’S MY COMRES POLL?

  44. Geoff – did you pay for it?

    Ask for a refund unless it says what you want it to.

  45. @ Amber can Mori pull a poll they’ve published. It will probably live on in folklore like that crazy +3 yes poll a day before the Indy Ref poll.

  46. Allan Christie / Exile in Yorks

    I think the SNP attack line is already written, if one of the few Labour MPs has to be a “Tartan Tory” to survive.

    However, I always have my doubts about Ashcroft’s constituency polling in Scotland.

    Weighting back to 2010 recalled vote is always full of potential problems – even when there has been no political upheaval in the meantime – which is why polling in Scotland now tends to be weighted to some combination of 2011, Euro and Referendum recalled vote and, with better pollsters, country of birth. For good demographic reasons, the latter is more important in affluent areas.

    Because Ashcroft’s additional adjustment is a manual one to weight back a proportion of DK/Refusers to their recalled 2010 vote, seems even more dodgy, I prefer to look at the data from before that final adjustment.

    Comparing SVI and CVI for East Ren (SVI first) in Ashcroft’s last two polls we get

    16 April
    SNP 41% : 42%
    Lab 26% : 30%
    Con 27% : 24%

    30 April
    SNP 41% : 41%
    Lab 32% : 35%
    Con 23% : 19%

    The others at 1%/2% on both are not going to affect things much.

    If the much vaunted CVI is actually describing tactical voting, as is often claimed, then the SVI should have remained roughly similar for all 3 parties, while the CVI should have soared towards Labour and away from the Tories.

    Whatever is happening in East Ren is not illuminated by using CVI.

  47. POINTER
    AC “Team blue just edging it.”
    Er, no (however much you like saying that sort of thing)
    ……..

    AW…Weekly Round up
    I’m not going through all this week’s polling like I normally do on Friday’s – frankly there has been too much – but just to complete the record set, the UKPR polling average for the final week of the campaign shows figures of CON 34%(+1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 14%(nc), GRN 5%(nc), pushing the Tories slightly ahead”
    __

    See the wee bit at the end? “pushing the Tories slightly ahead”

    Take it up with AW ;-)

  48. Comres tied at 35 each.

  49. Smithson tweeting he may have been mistaken on ComRes poll.

  50. 29m29 minutes ago
    ComRes [email protected]
    New poll for @DailyMailUK / @itvnews has Conservatives and Labour tied on 35% each, UKIP 11%, LibDems 7%, Greens 6%

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