In what is presumably their penultimate general election poll (their final call poll is normally in the Standard on election day itself) Ipsos MORI have topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%. It’s quite a shift from their previous poll, which had a two point Labour lead, so usual caveats apply. Full details and tables are here.

Panelbase meanwhile have new figures of CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%. I haven’t seen any tables yet, but I’ll update when available. UPDATE: Tabs are here

Still to come tonight we have the daily YouGov poll and a snap ICM/Guardian reaction poll following the Leaders Question Time special.

UPDATE2: The daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%. Meanwhile the ICM/Guardian instant reaction poll following the Question Time special found veiwers thought David Cameron came out narrowly on top – 44% thought Cameron did the best, 38% Miliband, 19% Nick Clegg.


1,350 Responses to “Latest Ipsos MORI and Panelbase polls”

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  1. To use a boxing analogy, to win the title you have to rip it out of the Champions hands.

    This audience gave Milliband that chance.

  2. yep- Ed enjoyed himself

  3. David

    Sorry no, if DC falls EM gets a go – no ifs/buts.

  4. Ac, what choice will the SNP have?

  5. Ed Miliband faced a lot of hostillity and scepticism. Had quite a lot of conviction. But he didn’t perform as well as he usually does in the question and answer session.

  6. I wonedr what Clegg’s first question will be…

  7. Uh oh…Ed slipped when leaving the stage.

    Hmm…Out of DC and EM who won? Well judging by the audience clap at the end then DC won the audience.

    Okay here come Nick This will be fun

  8. Ed almost fell off the stage as he was leaving.

  9. …and it’s student loans. What a surprise…:-)

  10. OBERTA, sorry come again?

  11. Exactly BlueMoby. Nail on head.

  12. Sorry not Douglas but Danny – got my lib-dem scots mixed up with my old tory scots – you know the ones that own most of the land up there.

  13. I noticed the slip too Allan – could have been messy

  14. Miliband did OK. I don’t think the audience shows a bias to the Tories. The Tory supporters were simply much more aggressive than the Labour ones.
    Dimblebey could perhaps have been harder on DC.

  15. As I understand it, it is the incumbent PM who assesses (with the help of officials) whether a replacement is likely to win the support of parliament.

    So the only “deal” that would be required would be a phone call by or on behalf of Cameron, to Nicola Sturgeon (or whoever speaks for SNP’s Westminster intentions) to ask the question “would you support a vote of confidence in a new government led by “Mr Miliband”? If the answer is yes, the Queen is advised that Miliband should be asked to form a government.

  16. Ed Miliband was very clear on the SNP and ruled out confidence and supply with them unambiguously.

  17. Clegg going to get creamed.

  18. Nick Clegg has a nice sense of humour and can diffuse the tension very well. Though we’re only a few minutes in he is the best of the three performers in this setting, IMHO.

  19. Thought audience was far more agressive and Dimblebee seemed to step in more for Cameron. Miliband did very well in that environment

  20. Scottish political journalists seem pretty unanimous that Miliband just finished off hope of a late LiS resurgence.

    If he’s already written off Scotland, then that’s no loss here, but potential gain in England.

    However, the SNP can put him into government after the election unless he goes off in a huff.

    After the election, however, the word “deal” may be a little more nuancedly defined.

  21. In the old days QT got some of its audience by giving invites to the local political parties.

    Guessing not much has changed

  22. On Ed’s saying he prefers the Tories in government to working with the SNP: either he is just being less than candid with English voters (again), or, to give him the benefit of the doubt, he’s finally putting his party’s long-term political interests above his own personal ambition to be PM (as I have been claimiing here that a responsible Labour leader should do).

  23. Dimblebee and Cameron are bullington members mind

  24. “After the election, however, the word “deal” may be a little more nuancedly defined.”

    I agree. You can dance around formal and informal agreements/ C&S but- as both dave and Nick proved in 2010- there are pre election mantras and post election “big offers”

  25. I thought Cameron shone.

  26. Is it me, or is Clegg actually doing better. I thought they’d tear his guts out and leave them drying on the rock…

  27. I’m finding some of the partisan comments unbecoming of this forum.

    The audience seems very combative. I suspect who is the winner but this isn’t the forum to discuss in my opinion. All that matters is what happens to the polls and the outcome.

  28. Yep, fair point, Clegg way better than EM.

  29. Ed has tonight said if he doesn’t get a majority then there won’t be a Labour Government – didn’t he?

  30. @Smithy

    “…Dimblebee and Cameron are bullington members mind…”

    Really? I genuinely didn’t know that…

  31. Martyn- its a Tory audience: they exhausted themselves on the red meat of Ed and feel a grudging sense of comradelyship with their deputy prime minister!

  32. Old nat king canute ed aint .

    He is going to live to fight another day.

    Other leaders maybe four other leaders aint.

  33. NC will be ok, he is rather good at this sort of thing.

    Labour is getting hit by both government parties, bad night for them I think

  34. I thought Ed was amazing.

  35. Nick Clegg is very good as a TV debater and is great in this format.

  36. I’d say about a third of the audience is Tory, about a third is Labour, and about a third is something else.

  37. Pete: let’s see what the snap poll says. Individual perceptions can be heavily biased.

  38. Flipping heck, are Clegg and Cameron doing a deal on the stage? Cameron gets EU referendum, Clegg gets education budget. Darn, I think that would work….

  39. Ed Miliband was full of conviction and made very very clear there would be no C&S deal with the Scottish National Party.

  40. BlueBob.

    Let’s wait and see shall we.

  41. @rob Sheffield

    I think you’re right

  42. EM seems to have got the ruffest ride. Maybe the audience were hostile…maybe they were checking to see if he would crack and if he had the balls….

    Either way he held his own.

  43. Neil A
    Precisely so. There has to be some sort of agreement.

  44. Sunreada

    Sorry. I didn’t understand your post.

  45. I’m watching about 20 mins behind the live programme but Miliband is taking a pounding! I expected him to do well….

    Cameron I thought started ok, then dipped about a third of the way in then recovered to finish neutral

  46. Did Ed fall off the stage? Hell yeah.

  47. I will say it again: Clegg is great in this format.

  48. ProfHoward: now the only thing Ed has to do is explain to voters how he plans to be PM in a fixed-term 5-year parlament with 270 MPs only and no C&S agreement with the SNP. Or maybe he’s conceding that, if he doesn’t get a majority, there will be a Tory government ?

  49. Doesn’t Clegg have a radio show? He must be very used to all of this by now.

  50. I couldn’t watch the leader’s debate as I got to the stage of actually feeling nauseous at the thought!

    Anyway, thanks for all the feedback on here. Still I can’t quite get if that was bad for Ed or not, Cameron seems, according to everyone, to have done quite well and we’re still on Clegg…..

    I await the final verdict.

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