In what is presumably their penultimate general election poll (their final call poll is normally in the Standard on election day itself) Ipsos MORI have topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%. It’s quite a shift from their previous poll, which had a two point Labour lead, so usual caveats apply. Full details and tables are here.

Panelbase meanwhile have new figures of CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%. I haven’t seen any tables yet, but I’ll update when available. UPDATE: Tabs are here

Still to come tonight we have the daily YouGov poll and a snap ICM/Guardian reaction poll following the Leaders Question Time special.

UPDATE2: The daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%. Meanwhile the ICM/Guardian instant reaction poll following the Question Time special found veiwers thought David Cameron came out narrowly on top – 44% thought Cameron did the best, 38% Miliband, 19% Nick Clegg.


1,350 Responses to “Latest Ipsos MORI and Panelbase polls”

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  1. @Pete B

    Thanks :)

  2. Ian

    Quick summary of the top 2 parties

    Populus: Con 33, Lab 33
    Survation: Con 33, Lab 34.

    Comres at 10pm. YG at 10.30pm.

  3. Re: Vague exit poll

    Can anyone remember what time the exit poll was announced last GE?

  4. @ RAF

    Don’t think that is up to me or Geoff :-)

    Think the small print will be about passing a queens speech

  5. @ Ian

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015

    This is a handy site but it’s not always clear on which day the poll has actually been released.

  6. Geoff

    Surely you and Vince Noir are one and the same?

    You sent identical posts only minutes apart, identical even to forgetting the apostrophe after ‘bookies’, and using the unusual six-dot ellipsis.

    I know that if an infinite number of monkeys sit in front of an infinite number of typewriters…

    Are you Grant Shapps?

  7. @RJK

    It’s meant to be at 10pm when the polls close. It’s usually a few minutes after that, though.

  8. Some posters do not seem to understand what Miliband said last night. If he thinks the SNP will vote in favour of a Labour Queens speech he can still form a Lab minority Govt. He does not need to offer the SNP concessions or deals. They either back him or they don’t.
    I would be astonished if a Con minority Govt was able to win a Queens speech if Lab/SNP have sufficient numbers to vote it down. Unless the polls start shifting more towards the Tories Cameron will not be PM for much longer.

  9. Who is writing this BBC live feed?!?

    “Speaking on Any Questions, Labour’s Yvette Cooper calls David Miliband a “coward” for not agreeing to a one-on-one debate with Ed Miliband.”

  10. Cheers RAF. I’ll be working on a polling station this year so I’ll have to ask friends / family to text me the details

  11. @MrNameless

    If the Lib Dems poll 8.5% nationally, get 30% in 50 seats, the average of the remaining 600 must be 6.7%

  12. @Alan
    “Statistically we can’t say anything about likelihoods of which house effects are right or wrong. If everyone copies pollster A’s methodology instead of B it doesn’t make A statistically more likely to be right”

    This is clearly true. However your other point is also true.
    .
    “There might be other reasoning you can apply”

    And in applying this other reasoning, it is useful to understand which parts of the polling methodologies are leading to the differences.
    .

  13. RAF

    I do believe that this is specified as Prime Minister on August 1st.

  14. Back to my earlier question….

    Not significant change in the polls today, but EM comment on no link to the SNP…

    So do the bookies think the same as me that EM will abstain a Tory or Tory/Libdem minority queens speech rather than face the unpopularity of him in government supported by the SNP

  15. @Raf @RJK

    It is usually 10pm. But I expect it might be a bit later this time. Electoral law has changed – previously polling stations slammed shut at 10pm, now you only have to be in a queue at 10pm to vote (so people could be voting up to, say, 10.15 or even 10.30 if there is late congestion like there was last time). Having said that I’m not sure if the change makes any provisions about exit poll publication.

  16. I guess those calculations assume an equal turnout in each seat.

  17. MIKEY

    I agree with the analysis but how long would the SNP be happy to be ‘frozen out’. I suspect they would try to make trouble / defeat Miliband at every turn but stop just short of bringing down the govt in order to get concessions for the stuff they want.

  18. They will publish the exit poll on the dong of 10pm exactly.

  19. The exit poll on Election night is always at 10 pm. We used to wait for Big Ben’s ‘bongs’ and then we got it.

  20. CMJ,

    Just ran it myself and got roughly the same – thanks!

    I actually think the Lib Dems are doing slightly better than 30% in their 50 best seats – if only because that figure includes seats like W&L, Eastbourne and Carshalton where they’re doing splendidly. Of course 30% evenly in 50 held seats would spell doom, but it doesn’t bode well for the less safe seats to have them unevenly distributed either.

  21. Vince

    “So do the bookies think the same as me that EM will abstain a Tory or Tory/Libdem minority queens speech”

    Get Victor to give you odds

    ps what are you smoking, ennerdale man myself

  22. @JACK SHELDON

    You could be right there. Otherwise there could be people waiting to vote knowing full well what the exit poll is saying (assuming they have their phones)

  23. Ridiculous door-sized posters of Andrew Stephenson all over the countryside surrounding my own constituency of Pendleton. I’m surprised the poor struggling farmers of East Lancashire can afford the nails. Frantic polling by Labour and Tory. I’ve been canvassed 3 times by each so far as well as taking part in canvassing myself.

    UKIP seem to be doing pretty well but right across the board rather than in anyspecific demographic. Both parties say iit’s too close to call.

  24. Pendle not Pendleton.

  25. Jack – Voting

    Blimey no exit poll till half eleven then when Hallam’s finished voting…….

  26. @SHS

    Pendle – Lab target no.58. 4% swing required.

  27. GARY O

    “Speaking on Any Questions, Labour’s Yvette Cooper calls David Miliband a “coward” for not agreeing to a one-on-one debate with Ed Miliband.”

    —-

    Perhaps she was talking about the Labour leadership elections?

  28. @Geoff
    “RAF
    I do believe that this is specified as Prime Minister on August 1st.”

    Thanks. Seems a long way away. Isn’t that during the summer recess?

  29. @GEOFF
    @VINCE NOIR
    @AdamB

    It’s true to say there’s been a slight movement ‘in’ of Cameron and slight movement ‘out’ of Miliband, but it really has been fractional and not shifting the first/second favourite status of Miliband/Cameron anything like significantly.

    For example, Cameron on William Hill has gone from 6/5 to 11/10; Miliband has gone from 4/6 to 8/11.

    Tiniest of movements. Miliband is bookies front runner still, and the toing and froing in the the market will just be around how confident punters remain about him after consulting polls/forecasts….which really aren’t moving against him

  30. In two hours we will have Comres and YouTube.

    Taken together these polls will help us to see if the Survation poll — which suggested the parties are neck and neck — are supported.

  31. We are getting close to election day

  32. ProfH

    lol – is Brand on again?

  33. @Omni

    What will we talk about afterwards?

  34. Gary O

    Good question. I don’t think a formal Lab/SNP coalition was ever on the cards. I do think a confidence and supply arrangement was. However Tory
    pressure has forced Miliband to close off this option and it does create a real problem keeping the SNP on board. How he does that without doing any deals over five years is not something I can answer.

    I do think Sturgeon has either been really stupid or disingenuous in all of this. By constantly baiting Miliband into agreeing some kind of deal with the SNP she has given the Tories all the ammunition they need. Was she doing this to shore up her vote in Scotland? Almost certainly. However she must have known this wold box Miliband into a corner with English voters. Had she been much more coy Miliband would have been under less pressure from the Tories.

  35. RAF

    How to change this ruddy voting system would be a start

  36. I reckon @ProfHoward is @AW.

  37. @raf

    The 2020 general election

  38. It seems fairly obvious that odds for Cameron as PM are substantially shorter because of Miliband’s stance last night on the SNP. The seats market remains much as it was.

  39. @Ray

    Ah yes. The problem is a vote to change to a new system has to be carried out under the current system.

  40. Etienne, RAF and Amber Star

    You are Gentlemen of the first order except for Amber who is of course a star.

    Many thanks all.

  41. RayFromTheNorth

    Lol. (Typo.)

  42. @Omni

    :) Will be interesting to see if YouGov dailies continue. One on May 8th?

  43. Prof Howard just checking to see if we’re all awake there ^^^^ ;-)

  44. RAF – Voting

    One of the big two has to see the light re. PR. All the minors would love it

  45. “I do think Sturgeon has either been really stupid or disingenuous in all of this.”

    @ Mikey

    Well, she’s not stupid…. ;)

  46. Graun analysis of ICM polls:

    In the English and Welsh battleground seats – defined here as seats the Conservatives won by no more than 15 percentage points last time, or Labour won by no more than 10 points – the swing is somewhat smaller. Where the Tories bested Labour by 38% to 36% in 2010, the pooled poll data suggests that the two parties are now tied on 38% apiece, which implies a swing of only 1%.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/datablog/2015/may/01/main-parties-unlikely-to-make-big-gains-outside-heartland-pooled-polls-suggest

  47. Bit of a Welsh pasting for the Tories…. like How Edwards controlling things

  48. Matthew

    Well we have our answer then.

  49. Graun analysis of ICM polls:

    In the English and Welsh battleground seats – defined here as seats the Conservatives won by no more than 15 percentage points last time, or Labour won by no more than 10 points – the swing is somewhat smaller. Where the Tories bested Labour by 38% to 36% in 2010, the pooled poll data suggests that the two parties are now tied on 38% apiece, which implies a swing of only 1%.

  50. @Ray

    Lab have promised a constitutional convention for the UK. I’d be amazed if the voting system isn’t part of it.

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