In what is presumably their penultimate general election poll (their final call poll is normally in the Standard on election day itself) Ipsos MORI have topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%. It’s quite a shift from their previous poll, which had a two point Labour lead, so usual caveats apply. Full details and tables are here.

Panelbase meanwhile have new figures of CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%. I haven’t seen any tables yet, but I’ll update when available. UPDATE: Tabs are here

Still to come tonight we have the daily YouGov poll and a snap ICM/Guardian reaction poll following the Leaders Question Time special.

UPDATE2: The daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%. Meanwhile the ICM/Guardian instant reaction poll following the Question Time special found veiwers thought David Cameron came out narrowly on top – 44% thought Cameron did the best, 38% Miliband, 19% Nick Clegg.


1,350 Responses to “Latest Ipsos MORI and Panelbase polls”

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  1. Alec is just wanting to get in to the this time 5 year ago piece in 2020 that someone will be posting.

  2. LASZLO
    Weird from BBC

    Second such mistake in last few days….

  3. The bookies odds on DC remaining as PM have significantly shortened today……

  4. I’m surprised no-one has commented on the bookies odds on DC remaining as PM shortening today.

  5. @Etienne

    LOL
    And using the same text.
    CAUGHT!

  6. Probably the latest tweet from HQ

  7. I think this election might just come down to turnout especially in those key marginals. All the current polls weight to 2010 voter turnout which often takes between 1 to 3 points off Labour .

    The issue I have with this weighting is you’re comparing apples with oranges, in 2010 it was always likely you’d get lower Lab turn out because of the financial situation and a feeling of staleness after 13 years.

    I’d expect Labour voters to be much more inclined to vote this time.

  8. From the comments EM made last night will he automatically vote down a minority Tory (or Tory/libdem minority) queens speech or not?

  9. Nico
    Fair point, you would sort of expect so.

    Late to the party, had a quick skim through; haven’t seen anyone mention that according to Smithson, the internals for the IPSOS yesterday were so screwy there was a serious debate inside the company whether or nor to publish.

  10. Survation lab 34 cons 33 labs 9 ukip 16

  11. @Vince

    Of course he would. Things would get extremely interesting after that…

  12. @Bantams

    “If Pudsey goes to Labour I’ll be totally gobsmacked!”

    What the hell has the Children in Need mascot got to do with the election? Is the bloody thing standing somewhere or has it endorsed Labour?

    :-)

  13. @ Catoswyn/RAF
    Con currently has 303 seats, so they need 23 more for an overall majority – provided that they don’t lose any!

    Blimey. As he said it last week either Conservative private polling shows them holding every seat or he was being just a tad disingenuos!!!

    ———————————————————————

    This “we only need 233 more seats and yours is one of them”
    is printed all over the latest Tory leaflet to be delivered in marginal North Cornwall. So as you say, the Tories are definitely trying hard to dislodge the LDs down here in the South West with frequent big name visits here too, but some of these LDs seem to be limpet-like!

  14. For anyone who thought they could get the exit poll and then retire to bed:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/u-k-election-exit-pollster-says-his-poll-may-be-vague-or-wrong

  15. @Etienne

    Nice one.

    It MUST be Shapps.

    By the way, the odds have not shortened today.

  16. @Ray

    If so, I think they did the right thing to publish and let the reader decide.

  17. @ Rayfromthenorth

    Yes I did a detailed post of the problems. To summarize the IPSOS/MORI had Cons winning the DE demographic by 15 points! Cons winning London, and part-time workers and unemployed, also winning in the 18 to 24 category. I suggested yesterday that this poll needed to go into the cat litter tray and seeing the polls since this one I think that’s valid. Generally you often find the odd weird crossbreak but this poll had far too many and any poll that shows Cons winning DE simply can’t be believed. that would be like Labour winning AB’s by 15 points!

  18. Hi all

    Been reading the comments with interest and decided to join you.

    Not seen any mention yet of the possible effect that many votes will already have been cast postally. Usually comes up as psephological point.

    Thoughts?

  19. @Nico

    But what if Ipsos/Mori and Ashcroft are true and all the other polls are wrong?

    I’m not a statistician, but what’s the likelihood that 95% of the polls are wrong and 5% are true?

  20. CROSSBAT
    Pudsey is obviously Labour. The way all the leftie luvvies gang up to support him every couple of months. (At least it seems that frequently.) It is clear Pudsey is the socialist icon, for those who find Russell Brand too stupid.

  21. RAF/NICO

    Totally agree, it’s rare though for o/p’s to be qualified almost by the publisher. We had the same with the ICM +6

  22. @ CROSSBAT11

    :)

  23. @Hireton

    It does not surprise me that Professor Curtice is nervous about his polls. It does surprise me that the main UK broadcasters have decided to go with ComRes for their exit poll. ICM would have been a better choice.

  24. RAF – E

  25. WOODSMAN

    Yes, I did wonder if the hit back at the Conservatives from Lib Dem’s yesterday (on the benefit stuff) means their main focus now is going to be anti-Conservative rather than ‘middle of the road’ precisely because of West Country seats.

  26. RAF – Exit poll

    Perhaps they’ll go back to the low/central/high forecast seat numbers like they did in ’92 (but not a lately)

  27. @Ray

    That would make sense.

  28. @ Hireton

    I wish Anthony would do a write up- that article says 20k people which is exactly the same number as last time but I’m sure someone vaguely in authority was saying it would be a much higher sample.

    I’m equally sure Curtis was previously quoted as saying the exit poll would be right within a few seats for each party.

  29. Oh come on everyone… Pudsey is bright yellow! Obviously a Lib Dem.

  30. Six forecasts have changed today but the average Conservative lead remains at 11 seats. I have added links to all the forecasters, just click on the forecasters name at the top of the table.

    Tables and graph are here:

    https://onedrive.live.com/redir?resid=698F47EA25B48A7A!522187&authkey=!AFZDnEdcnYypIGI&ithint=file%2cpdf

  31. @Crossbat.

    Its best to use the Nate Silver rule, generally stick with what the majority are saying. One outlier might be the start of a change but if that’s not backed then discard it. Currently I’d say the Tories just have the edge by a narrow margin but within the MOE.

  32. @ Millie

    Pretty much all the bookies odds have shortened on DC. Check out:
    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/prime-minister-after-general-election

    For example Betfair have gone from 17/12 to 1/1 for DC remaining PM. Looks like they are liked his performance last night.

  33. ROLANGGATINOISE

    What was the point of that comment?

  34. Another absolute GEM from the BBC feed just now:

    “Speaking on Any Questions, Labour’s Yvette Cooper calls David Miliband a “coward” for not agreeing to a one-on-one debate with Ed Miliband.”

  35. Crossbar

    Statistically we can’t say anything about likelihoods of which house effects are right or wrong. If everyone copies pollster A’s methodology instead of B it doesn’t make A statistically more likely to be right.

    There might be other reasoning you can apply, but pollsters methodology isn’t a random variable.

  36. Millie/Vince Noir

    This is a better page as you can see how they change by the minute. They have been shortening all day – lots of money obviously going on DC

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/prime-minister-after-general-election/bet-history/david-cameron/today

  37. VInce Noir

    Yes, the bookies odd are starting to tie in more.

    They have the Tories more or less nailed on to win the most seats, and now have DC and EM much much closer in terms of next PM. The ‘next government’ odds are hard to interpret given that they split the Tories in to 2 or 3 (minority, LD coalition and, perhaps, majority) whereas a Lab-led colation appears highly unlikely

  38. Gary Gatter
    You’re doing a great job!

  39. On this latest Ashcroft poll, a little bit of a worry for the Lib Dems, who appear to be polling an average of about 5% in unwinnable seats. For them to hold a significant number of seats, their vote share of 8-9% nationally needs to be balanced with a share of near zero in seats they aren’t contesting.

    I don’t have the brains to run the maths but getting 5% in 500-odd useless seats will seriously sap their national vote away from held and competitive seats.

  40. @ Geoff

    Yea good tracker. Quite a shift today.

    I got in at 6/4 :-) ….that was a while ago

  41. Forgive me if this has been discussed, but I haven’t had time to read 1200 posts!

    Do we think that a minority government of some colour is almost inevitable now that so many parties have opted out of having formal agreements with each other?

    Would Con+LibDem+DUP be the most likely formal arrangement now? I’m assuming that Ed means what he says and that Tories would get a few more seats than Labour.

  42. VINCE – I also got the 6/4, think it was about a week ago. Think we both got the best price possible!!!

  43. Mr N
    “I don’t have the brains to run the maths but getting 5% in 500-odd useless seats will seriously sap their national vote away from held and competitive seats.”

    That’s exactly why I’ve been saying that they’ll be lucky to get 12 seats this time.

  44. I’m not sure about that, Mr Nameless. I’d like one of our many mathematical experts to work it out, but I’d think 50 x 30% and 580 x 5% would end up at pretty close to 8-9%.

  45. Pete B,

    They’re either about to do significantly worse than we’ve thought for seats, or significantly better than polls indicate for vote share.

  46. Just a quick thought.

    We know Bank Holiday polling can be a bit erratic, but with a Bank Holiday weekend so close to polling day, how will pollsters adjust their methods to deal with this unwelcome variable

  47. @MrNameless

    I’ve just got a little hunch it’s going to be really bad for the Lib Dems. As in worse than the worst forecasts. The gap between the two questions Lord A asks is worryingly big. Six days out (ok, probably 7-8 when the North Cornwall poll was in the field) from the election are people’s first instinctive responses when asked their VI going to be that far out? I doubt it. I expect his headine figures therefore over-do the Lib Dems. And so do the Lib Dems’ own polls that name candidates. I now wouldn’t be surprised to see the LDs in the 10-20 range.

  48. All

    Would someone do me a great favour?

    I have been out all day collecting food at a supermarket and I do not have the heart or strength to scroll through over a thousand comments to find out what polls have been published so far today.

    Could someone recap today’s published polls for me – I would be very grateful.

  49. @Geoff/Vince

    What is the qualification for next PM? Unless DC resigns overnight he will definitely be the next PM, for a few days at least.

  50. Ian, I would suggest looking at Britain Elects on Twitter for a quick summary, but basically there’s been a Populus tie, a mixed bag of Ashcroft marginals, and a Survation Lab +1

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