In what is presumably their penultimate general election poll (their final call poll is normally in the Standard on election day itself) Ipsos MORI have topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%. It’s quite a shift from their previous poll, which had a two point Labour lead, so usual caveats apply. Full details and tables are here.

Panelbase meanwhile have new figures of CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%. I haven’t seen any tables yet, but I’ll update when available. UPDATE: Tabs are here

Still to come tonight we have the daily YouGov poll and a snap ICM/Guardian reaction poll following the Leaders Question Time special.

UPDATE2: The daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%. Meanwhile the ICM/Guardian instant reaction poll following the Question Time special found veiwers thought David Cameron came out narrowly on top – 44% thought Cameron did the best, 38% Miliband, 19% Nick Clegg.


1,350 Responses to “Latest Ipsos MORI and Panelbase polls”

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  1. The Conservatives are campaigning very heavily in the West country. I have never seen so many ‘top bods’ in any election before. There seems to be one a day in Taunton…. Osborne ( more than once), Cameron, Hammond….. They really want those Lib Dem seats.

  2. @Catoswyn

    That’s the sweet spot for the Tories. They’re hoping for 15+ gains there.

  3. TONY DEAN

    “What would be a good deal more reliable would be to have a series of snap-shot polls throughout a campaign of the same cohort of people who were found to be genuine swing voters living in the various categories of marginal seat at the opening of a campaign.”

    I’ve seen focus-group polling and panelling of “genuine swing voters” in the US, and without trying to be too harsh, they’re an oddly unrepresentative cohort. In some circumstances, being a “committed undecided” voter is even more staunch a political identity than being committed to a particular party.

  4. ROGER MEXICO.
    Hi.

    No.
    March 19th Stands.

    May 1st was introduced by Pope Leo X111; the Pope who wrote ‘Rerum Novarum’ about social justice in Christian Ethics.

  5. RAF
    That’s the sweet spot for the Tories. They’re hoping for 15+ gains there.

    In his talk in Taunton Cameron told the punters that they were one of the essential 23 seats that would give him a majority.

    I’ve always been a bit puzzled by this…. any ideas?

  6. The bookies odds are shortening a lot on DC to remain as PM

  7. A BlueBob

    “I still am of the belief that the Lib Dems will do much much better than what the polls are currently saying.”

    I suspect they will hang on in unexpected places too.
    Although I think this will happen to my old party, and I respect your view of their role in the coalition with your party, as a former Radical-Left Liberal now campaiging for Labour I feel they do not deserve to perform as well as I suspect they will. 32 to 37 seats would not surprise me, whilst the polls would indicate much fewer?!

  8. @Catoswyn

    Con currently has 303 seats, so they need 23 more for an overall majority – provided that they don’t lose any!

  9. Geoff

    Thank you for pointing out my stupidity!

    My prediction based on Ashcroft polls in April and March, and Uniform Swing else where:
    Con to Lab 35
    Con to UKIP 3
    Con to SNP 1
    LD to Lab 11
    LD to Con 12
    LD to SNP 9
    Lab to SNP 37

    Giving:
    Con 279 -27
    Lab 267 +9
    SNP 53 +47
    LD 25 -32

  10. @John TT – “Is “career-defining” a game-changer?”

    No. See last night’s ‘On This Day’ feature.

  11. @ Holgate

    “I’ve seen focus-group polling and panelling of “genuine swing voters” in the US, and without trying to be too harsh, they’re an oddly unrepresentative cohort. In some circumstances, being a “committed undecided” voter is even more staunch a political identity than being committed to a particular party.”

    That is really interesting – I was unaware that had been tried the other side of The Pond – thank you.

  12. I have a feeling this election in slipping away from Cameron. Too many little gaffes, and the fabled swing back doesn’t seem to be coming.

    All to play for in some ways, but those marginals look threatening.

  13. Bookies odds on DC remaining as PM have significantly shortened today

  14. @ ChrisLane1945

    I was in error, but it wan’t Leo,

    It was originally Pius IX (Wednesday two weeks after Easter) Then the day to coincide with May 1 by Pius XII as John Murphy stated.

    I didn’t mean any offence.

  15. @CATOSWYN

    RAF has sorted out the maths. It’s curious that press coverage of the campaign has largely not said much about the Conservatives coming short of a working majority even though the seat projections point that way. It seems to price in the current Con+LD coalition, even though 305C+20LD (well above current projected estimates) is a markedly different government from 307C+57LD.

  16. I mean:
    Con 282 -24

    Oh I give up…

  17. RAF
    Con currently has 303 seats, so they need 23 more for an overall majority – provided that they don’t lose any!

    Blimey. As he said it last week either Conservative private polling shows them holding every seat or he was being just a tad disingenuos!!!

  18. On Ashcroft (I said some of this earlier but got kind of lost in the thread)…

    The Con/LD seats will be a real test of his two-step method. The gaps are pretty massive. Personally this close to the election I can’t see people suddenly changing from their initial VI because they start thinking about their constituency in the numbers he’s suggesting…

    CON have been putting a lot of effort into Croydon Central (Cameron/Osborne both visited) – for that to happen they must have had a pre-Ashcroft indication that it wasn’t unwinnable. The swing may be generally big in London but I’m not sure you can extrapolate that across the city – its a big place and what’s happening on the ground in north London where many of the other seats we’ve seen polled are may not be happening so much further south (Battersea isn’t all that far from Croydon Central and kind of backs up that theory).

    Norwich North had a by-election in 2009 so isn’t quite a standard marginal (by-election probably boosted the winner, Chloe Smith, in 2010). Would be a good hold and that’s still not impossible.

    Stourbridge is a tad closer than I might have imagined given Margot James has a very strong reputation (UKIP 15% prob explains that).

    I’m not surprised McVey’s losing in Wirral West. Always a hard seat anyway and she’s a bit of a divisive figure, at least by the standards of first-time incumbents who normally spend the five years making sure they earn their incumbency boost.

    Pudsey’s just a classic marginal – too close to call.

    UKIP clearly making Peterborough close. Though it also has an odd history. Stewart Jackson went backwards in 2010 in terms of vote share even though LDs went backwards too (I notice UKIP got 6.7% even then). In fact Jackson only got 2.4% more in 2010 than we he lost in 2001. Maybe there is something demographic going on.

    As for Scotland we may be seeing that CON voters are more prepared to vote tactically for unionists than LAB voters. In fact, LAB voters possibly voting tactically for nationalists. Doesn’t look at all great for David Mundell’s hopes of getting back but reasonably encouraging for Jim Murphy.

  19. I’m sure someone has done this but based on Ashcroft polling of Lib Dem seats (some seats will have been some time ago and some seats within margin of error) and giving safe seats that he hasn’t polled to the Lib Dems I came up with the following:

    LD 27
    SNP 11
    Lab 10
    Con 9

    I’m not promising 100% accuracy on those figures but going to be pretty close to that.

    Probably not much advantage to be had for Labour or Tory in dividing up the spoils except to the extent that it knocks 21 seats off a Con-LD coalition and 21 seats onto some sort of left alliance.

  20. Alec

    Swing back to the blues is happening, over the last week they’re about 1% ahead. My fear is that it will won’t move further between now and Thurs and therefore con getting a large enough gap to Labour on Thurs will be reliant on what all the experts typically say happens on the day – swings to Con and also to incumbent.

    Adam

  21. Ashcrofts poll in Battersea was an odd choice.There was a passing reference to Ellison being a gonna in the speccie -obviously just some very nervous locals who might have intrigued the good Lord .Anyone familiar with that part of London knows it is south chelsea as her 50 percent of VI tells you.

    But maybe someone higher up the food chain was sufficiently nervous about London and wanted him to test the water.Who knows

  22. If Jim Murphy ends up as the parliamentary LiS party, who will be chief whip?

  23. The Conservatives real challenge in this election is trying to remain the largest party. However, to achieve this they need to decimate the LibDems in their South East and Middle England constituencies.

    Either we see Conservative 270-275 and LibDem 25-30 OR Conservative 280-285 and LibDem 15-20.

    Neither scenario is sufficient to stay in Number 10 even with support from UKIP and DUP.

    Even if they gain the largest number of seats, it can only be done by eliminating their potential allies.

  24. Btw, I know LiS isn’t a separate party from UK Labour….

  25. @Bluebob

    If you were a staunch Tory living in Sheffield Hallam, Leeds NW, or Edinburgh West where a Lib Dem vote might conceivably keep out Labour or the SDP, would you vote for them?

    Andrew

  26. Paul M

    That was exactly my point.

    So far in this campaign we’ve had left-leaning papers giving Tory leads and right-leaning papers showing Labour performing better. Today we’ve seen a left-wing newspaper giving a Labour lead. Hence my mock surprise.

  27. TONY DEAN

    To be more specific, self-described undecided voters often break down into groups whose choice is driven by non-political reasons (“he’s got a nice haircut”, “she has lovely children”) and groups whose political posture is defined by being hard to get.

    (There will be a cohort of GB voters whose decision is influenced by the arrival of the royal baby. It probably won’t be a big one, or a politically significant one, but that’s electoral democracy for you.)

    So you can poll them and focus-group them and track movement, but there are diminishing returns in treating them as a distinct cohort.

  28. AdamB

    I am still very relaxed about Con’s getting over 300 seats, the last week has been a good week for them and its how you finish that’s important In any race.

    I have a few quid on various outcomes and whilst my biggest bet of a Tory majority may well be lost I should still be ok as long as they get over 300, not long now to find out.

  29. Bit of irony from Krishnan Guru-Murthy

    “So it seems Labour could be wiped out in Scotland, lose in England, not stand in N Ireland but win in Wales and Ed Miliband becomes PM!”

    Back in St Ives, been out this aft but it’s blinking cold! Missed last nights QT in Leeds, see the Survation poll has turned on it’s head again though DC was 37 to 28 up on EM with Cleggie on 10.

    Comres poll to come tonight, might all be back in the balance again.

  30. @ Andrew111

    Yes in a heartbeat, if Nick Clegg loses his seat I think the UK will have lost a gifted politician.

  31. ALEC

    @”I am feeling a sense that the election is slipping away from Labour”

    0543 hrs.

    @”I have a feeling this election in slipping away from Cameron.”

    0652 hrs.

    Mr. Consistency lol.

  32. @alec

    Just for the record nowhere in NE Scotland is at the @rsend of anywhere. Except Peterhead. Possibly.

  33. @Andrew111

    I would myself… depending on who the MP was

  34. ANDREW111

    You mean SNP rather than SDP?

    BLUEBOB

    “Very relaxed” sounds like your boss (Cameron)! Not sure he/they are at all relaxed at this moment….”very nervous” more like.

  35. @Colin

    I spotted that too.

    I think Alec is having a little fun with us..,

  36. Hireton,

    I wouldn’t say that Peterhead is the ARSE end of nowhere. It’s more plausible the head end of nowhere.

  37. @Bantams

    You’re complaining about being in St Ives????

  38. Alec
    How can something slip away that never belonged in the fist place?
    Surely Alec, no Tory ever looked like they would win anything in your little world.

  39. @Toby

    I’m saying this more in hope than expectation but we may be seeing convergence. I guess ComRes will answer that.

  40. BRIAN NICHOLSON

    “However, to achieve this they need to decimate the LibDems in their South East and Middle England constituencies.”

    There aren’t that many seats in those regions where C is the challenger. If Vince Cable or Ed Davey are looking nervous in the early hours of Friday morning, then perhaps the dam has been broken, but we’ll get a sense of that elsewhere first.

    I think the main battleground is actually the two-way English marginals in the “northern south” and “southern north”, where the LD squeeze is going to make the difference: if a constituency name ends in “Valley”, then it’s significant.

  41. @holgate

    The Economist calls them the “post-industrial south”, “midlands suburbia” and “prosperous north”

    http://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/original-size/images/print-edition/20150425_BRM926.png

  42. What time is the Comres poll due ?

  43. @ RAF

    No but I was hoping to canvass and deliver in warmer weather. It actually snowed in Pudsey earlier in the week!

  44. Weird from BBC

    Poll shows Tory lead
    Posted at 19:18
    A poll for the Daily Mirror by Survation put Labour one point ahead of the Conservatives (34% and 33%). UKIP were on 16%, Liberal Democrats had 9% and the Greens, 3%.

    We’ll end of the week, I suppose, and also difficult to keep up with the typing. Or a Cameron moment, or whatever. Hopefully it will be corrected.

  45. @HOLGATE
    Indeed, the most significant valley for the LD leadership will be Napa Valley, they will all be downing 6 bottles of California sunshine each.

  46. @ Jack Sheldon

    If Pudsey goes to Labour I’ll be totally gobsmacked!

  47. @Bramley

    Usually 10pm.

  48. It has been corrected …

  49. @Bantams

    It looks like one of truly exceptional seats where the Tories might just hang on notwithstanding Lab only needs a tiny swing.

  50. The bookies odds on DC remaining as PM have significantly shortened today……

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