In what is presumably their penultimate general election poll (their final call poll is normally in the Standard on election day itself) Ipsos MORI have topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%. It’s quite a shift from their previous poll, which had a two point Labour lead, so usual caveats apply. Full details and tables are here.

Panelbase meanwhile have new figures of CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%. I haven’t seen any tables yet, but I’ll update when available. UPDATE: Tabs are here

Still to come tonight we have the daily YouGov poll and a snap ICM/Guardian reaction poll following the Leaders Question Time special.

UPDATE2: The daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%. Meanwhile the ICM/Guardian instant reaction poll following the Question Time special found veiwers thought David Cameron came out narrowly on top – 44% thought Cameron did the best, 38% Miliband, 19% Nick Clegg.

1,350 Responses to “Latest Ipsos MORI and Panelbase polls”

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  1. @Bill Patrick


  2. Aha: SOTLAND

    That’s every question so far from a Tory voter

  3. Ed looks nervous……..a strange performance so far.

  4. Ed is having a really tough time here. Still claiming Labour didn’t spend too much last time has gone down like a lead balloon.

  5. Allan

    Given that the SNP are 30% ahead in the polls it might just be wishful thinking on my part.

  6. Ed prefers the Tories in power to working with the SNP.


  7. He’s having a mare. Someone help him.

  8. They’re a bit savage, this crowd. God know what they’re going to do with Clegg

  9. It’s not about how aggressive or not the audience is, it’s about how they deal with those questions.

    EM seems to be holding up remarkably well under a LOT of pressure….

    He’s not sweating like DC ;)

  10. Miliband has now gone much further in ruling out any compromise or understanding with SNP. Brave or foolish?

  11. Sounds like Ed has just said there won’t be a Labour Government..

  12. Jasper22,

    Given the audience, I think he’s handling it rather well.

  13. ‘What’s your name’
    ‘Thanks Becky, great question’

    How I hate this coached over familiar manner!

    Yes they all do it, it’s not a partisan point…

  14. Ed prefers the Tories in power to working with anybody!


  15. He’s still standing after all those baseball bats to the head: and getting more fluid. Interesting…

    20:47 – OK that’s 17 minutes. Now- following the ‘Bill Patrick dictum’- I can now formally be allowed to state….I think Ed quite likes this format.

  16. Not sure the self-deprecating humour works, though.

  17. Crowd are tougher but Dimblebee allowing few members having a monopoly on back and forth one on ones

  18. @David

    It’s neither brave or foolish…. the SNP will NEVER vote down a Labour Queen’s Speech. They would never be forgiven by the Scottish for letting in a Tory Gov.

    So really Labour don’t have an SNP problem…their problem is explaining that to the country.

  19. Rob Sheffield,

    Yes, it makes him come across as more spontaneous than the other debates, where he could sometimes seem a bit mechanical.

  20. Did not think I would ever say this but I actually feel sorry for EdM.

    This is a tough brutal audience for him, I think maybe the BBC have leaned a bit to far right with them, conscious of the complaints of UKIP in the last debate maybe?

    In one way this is the best thing that can happen for me as im a Tory voter, but I do like to see fairness also.

  21. MIKEY
    Given that the SNP are 30% ahead in the polls it might just be wishful thinking on my part

    I don’t want to dampen your wishes but the latest poll had the SNP 34% ahead of Labour.

  22. He’s confused the position regarding a minority government.

  23. He gets an easy question and Dimbleby nukes it. Ha!

  24. Getting stronger – bit brutal but handled himself very well

  25. Jasper22,

    What is the position? I must confess I didn’t get it from that section.

  26. Thats always been an achilles heel largely becos voters look at it like accountants not economists .

    Labour needed to educate the public but its well too late now.99percent of voters dont realise how close we came to meltdown.And that if cameron or cleggy had been in charge the same crisis would have blown up.

    Sad becos it could easily happen again

  27. David. Miliband is fine in what he is saying about the SNP. He does not have to do any kind of deal with the SNP formal or otherwise. They can chose whether to back Labour legislation or not. If they don’t back a minority Labour Govt then the SNP have to justify bringing a Labour Govt down letting the Tories in when they face their supporters in Scotland.

  28. Bluemoby

    True- they wont vote against Ed in a confidence motion for the reason you state.

    They can make life very difficult for Ed but they need him just like he might need them. There’s a lot they agree upon.

    Just like LibDems gave Tories the cover to go much farther towards neoliberalism/ anti statism than they could have on their own, the Nats can do that for Labour but from a social democratic perspective. They both know this.

  29. @bluebob,.
    I agree.

    I have for ages seen newsnight audiences, whooping and cheering, full of students with Owen Jones talking utter nonsense, and nobody agreed with me. But yes, tonight this is pro Tory, no dout, and EM is getting hammered which is unfair. Some of the people on here need to learn from this when we Tories occasionally moan about the opposite!


    Miliband has to guarantee to the Palace officials that as a possible second choice he has the numbers to govern – and that means some sort of arrangement with the the SNP.

  31. @ David

    There’s deal and there’s deals. ;)

  32. MIKEY
    David. Miliband is fine in what he is saying about the SNP.

    What program are you watching? His brother is on BBC1 ;-)

  33. David

    “Miliband has to guarantee to the Palace officials”

    Constituitional experts do not agree

  34. This was the best thing that could have happened for labour.

    Not only will nobody (Ok maybe certain newspapers) be able to say he got an easy ride; but hes actually baseball batting quite a few of the curveballs totally out of the park.

    Even with the blue clothed ‘umpire’ !!

  35. I really don’t understand why people can’t understand EM’s position on a possible future minority Government. It’s simple. If, for whatever reason, EM is appointed Prime Minister, the Labour Party does no deals with anyone but puts forward its own programme. It’s then up to the SNP and others to decide whether they support that programme or not and whether they want to be responsible for the return of a Conservative Government or trigger another election.

  36. can’t spell. sorry

  37. Rich

    Miliband is not getting hammered at all. He had a tough start but he is very resilient and has come through well.

  38. Ed expects the SNP to vote for him at the queens speech and give nothing in return. Do you really think the SNP and the majority of voters in Scotland would put up with that?

    The nasty Tory party and nice Labour party saga in Scotland was yesterdays politics. It’s not as simple as that anymore.

  39. RobS

    Agree, the public love a fighter.

    There was an occasion during the Indy Ref where EM had to be ‘rescued’ from a hosile crowd in Scotland. He should have dived in and taken his (metaphorical) licks

  40. I am mightily impressed with the way EM is batting away the aggression. He has definitely won himself some votes tonight. The British love an underdog. Not sure if I will change my vote though to be honest.

  41. @Mikey,

    We can agree to disagree. This has gone very badly compared to DC.


  42. Labour is winning seats where it counts so the heat is on Cameron and with certain Lib Dem Scot mps about to be out of politics all the s..t will hit the fan in the remaining few days. Tell us all Douglas!

  43. It’s extremely difficult for the Beeb to have an audience that someone won’t think of as biased. Even a perfectly fair audience can appear biased as they collectively become more or less animated or active at various points.

  44. It was a shaky beginning but EM’s taken all the flack and has come back very strongly.

  45. @ Rich

    You hit the nail on the head, I rarely watch QT anymore as its just 60 minutes of Tory bashing.

  46. Rayfromthenorth
    Miliband wouldn’t get through the Palace doors, as Second choice without a guarantee of numbers. The civil servants have been role-playing this for weeks.

  47. @rich

    I agree. They are tearing him a new one. Even I think it’s cruel…

  48. hostile!

  49. Allan Christie,

    As I understand the position, the idea is that the SNP have nowhere else to go.

  50. @David

    Yes he would. As soon as DC couldnt get through a Queens Speech he has to tell the Queen to let EM have a go.. he doesnt have to give her number…

    The its up to SNP to vote him down…. they wont!

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