In what is presumably their penultimate general election poll (their final call poll is normally in the Standard on election day itself) Ipsos MORI have topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%. It’s quite a shift from their previous poll, which had a two point Labour lead, so usual caveats apply. Full details and tables are here.

Panelbase meanwhile have new figures of CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%. I haven’t seen any tables yet, but I’ll update when available. UPDATE: Tabs are here

Still to come tonight we have the daily YouGov poll and a snap ICM/Guardian reaction poll following the Leaders Question Time special.

UPDATE2: The daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%. Meanwhile the ICM/Guardian instant reaction poll following the Question Time special found veiwers thought David Cameron came out narrowly on top – 44% thought Cameron did the best, 38% Miliband, 19% Nick Clegg.


1,350 Responses to “Latest Ipsos MORI and Panelbase polls”

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  1. Only a week to go.

  2. Second,third or maybe even fourth by the time I finish typing this

  3. Still all to play for, but the tries do seem to be pulling larger leads out of the hat occasionally

  4. tries = tories*

  5. Anthony, what is your take on the Mori poll lead for the Conservatives? Is there anything that stands out as odd about the poll other than the possibility of usual margin of error?

  6. Bill you are defo correct -he is indeed a con ,a con under a lot of pressure -a lot of it self induced .

    He needs to stay cool -why do I think he might go ott.

  7. QT special starts in 8 minutes

  8. The Sun have declared that Cameron won tonights QT and that Miliband had a nightmare.

  9. Ipsos-Mori….CROSSOVER !!

    Panelbase….Oh darn it !

  10. No signs of Tory bias in the audience…

  11. Rob

    Indeed. YouGov will be interesting tonight.

  12. Cameron under pressure from real voters for the first time.

  13. Cameron is doing OK to be fair.

  14. Game on. Cameron seems a bit rattled.

  15. Cameron is doing fairly well but nonetheless struggling, a good chunk of the audience are clearly out for blood

  16. I think Cameron quite likes this format. A lot of pressure, but he’s good on his feet, and a master of the Newt Gingrich approach to difficult questions i.e. answer a related question that you do want to answer.

  17. …although to be fair, he does seem to be recovering

  18. Its a bit unfocused this discussion with Cameron.

  19. I hope for his sake the audience is full of hard working families.

  20. Anthony,

    Wikipedia are showing a new Guardian poll showing a ten point Tory lead. The site was edited by an anonymous user about 28 minutes ago. Is there a GE poll due tonight or could it be the result of the debate or is it someone playing silly buggers?

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

  21. Oooh, that was clever: telling a voter he’s wrong. Quite a smart move…

  22. It’s a bit like an old-fashioned politician facing a street audience. I’m reminded of Heath and Major in 1970/1992, although they were much more aggressive figures with the audience.

  23. Bill Patrick

    The trouble for DC is that both EM and NC “like this kind of format” too !

    The fabled ‘crossover’ requires a series of knockout blows from DC. He’s not really landed any as yet.

    Who knows maybe every LD and Con supporter in the audience will have been primed to ask EM about Scotland…

  24. Rob Sheffield,

    I think I’ll wait before they’ve been on before I judge how well they do with this format.

  25. No 10 point lead showing on that wiki page now…

  26. @RobSheffield

    Dude! Welcome back!

    @SgtHowie

    The link given (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zt47omz8x6/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-290415.pdf ) did not support the figure

  27. Bill Patrick

    You did not wait very long before you asserted that DC ‘likes it’ !

    Maybe you should wait till the snap poll then??

    Or are you ‘waiting till’ “they’ve been on” in order to give your pre-existing opinion that they don’t like it?

    I suppose that gives you a fig leaf of studied analytical observational neutrality…not

  28. I do like Dave, he does come across quite well…

  29. Good evening all from a sunny East Renfreshire. Cold but sunny.

    Now…Polls are acting naughty and teasing a lot of us so probably still neck and neck….In England of course!!

    On tonight’s QT special. It’s boring because it ain’t a debate.

  30. Cameron ok, no errors, but at times to rattle through his points, and seems to lack conviction.

  31. Rob Sheffield,

    Actually, I was giving my impression.

    I’m not particularly enjoying this discussion, so it’s over.

  32. I agree Allan – snapshot of the soundbites from the past 3 weeks

  33. Allan

    Its neck and neck in Scotland too Allan. The Labour surge is on. You know this makes sense

  34. Oooh, bitchy audience member…

  35. Here comes ED………….

  36. And now it’s Ed…

  37. Well Dave did his best .

    Lets see how Ed does

  38. Why do they still call people by their name? It’s so 2010….

  39. Ed and Dave have go the same tie on. Am I the only one who notices this?

  40. I’m glad you ask that question, Martyn. Let me focus in on one part of that question. Martyn, they do call people by their name. I think it’s important that I answer that question, and thank you for asking it, Martyn.

  41. MIKEY
    Allan
    Its neck and neck in Scotland too Allan. The Labour surge is on. You know this makes sense
    ______

    Come on Mikey are you taking the Mickey?.

  42. Were those signs of Conservative bias in the audience just then…?!

  43. The SNAP poll is a bit more meaningless with this format as the questions are not likely to be identical and some politicians could get more r less challenging questions.

  44. I think they picked the audience from the local Tory party club :)

    Very surprised by the BBC

  45. Wow, surprised at this. The audience is giving EM a pasting.

  46. Ed having a harder time than Cameron. This is not going well

  47. Dimbleby appears to have gone AWOL

    Ed standing his ground respectfully and gamefully.

  48. Finding this a bit uncomfortable now. The questions are really aggressive and have a nasty hectoring tone.

  49. Allowing lots of comebacks on EM, less so with DC

  50. This is brutal.

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