In what is presumably their penultimate general election poll (their final call poll is normally in the Standard on election day itself) Ipsos MORI have topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%. It’s quite a shift from their previous poll, which had a two point Labour lead, so usual caveats apply. Full details and tables are here.

Panelbase meanwhile have new figures of CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%. I haven’t seen any tables yet, but I’ll update when available. UPDATE: Tabs are here

Still to come tonight we have the daily YouGov poll and a snap ICM/Guardian reaction poll following the Leaders Question Time special.

UPDATE2: The daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%. Meanwhile the ICM/Guardian instant reaction poll following the Question Time special found veiwers thought David Cameron came out narrowly on top – 44% thought Cameron did the best, 38% Miliband, 19% Nick Clegg.


1,350 Responses to “Latest Ipsos MORI and Panelbase polls”

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  1. Without wanting to give anything away, polling day in Hallam is going to be tons of fun :D

  2. Everyone will start debating the resulting wrangling omni. This site will transmogrify from a forum on polling to expounding on all the constitutional complexities known to man. Your abacus will be put back in the cupboard – for a short while.

  3. TonyB

    Has Ashcroft been a waste of time?

  4. @ rayfromthenorth

    Just my boosh logic

  5. Matthew

    The seats market is also drifting against Labour pretty substantially:

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats/bet-history/labour/today

    So it’s not a case of just PM – clearly punters think there is a real swing happening towards the Tories.

  6. RAF
    Pendle – Lab target no.58. 4% swing required.

    Last Ashcroft poll only showed a 2% swing though (December) Maybe local campaigning will extract the other 2%.

  7. @Tony B

    Bit of a stretch to call a constituency where Labour would need a swing of at least 7.5% a marginal.

  8. I have just got the link through to the Survation poll – some of the figures do not seem to make sense, can anybody help please.
    On page 10 there is a question:

    Q. Putting aside your own party preference and basing your answer on what you saw or heard during or
    after the programme, which one of the three leaders do you think…performed the “worst”?
    The results are that the Conservative supporters think David Cameron performed worse than Ed Miliband by 74:7
    Whilst the Labour supporters thought Ed Miliband performed worse than David Cameron by 57:3

    The next question on page 10 is:
    Q. Putting aside your own party preference and basing your answer on what you saw or heard during or
    after the programme, which one of the three leaders do you think…performed the “best”?
    Here the Conservative voters thought Ed Miliband performed better than David Cameron by 39:7
    Labour supporters thought David Cameron performed better than Ed Miliband by 59:11

    Surely these figures appear wrong, and if so what other figures could be wrong?

  9. RAF – Voting system

    Would love to see it, with possible EV4EL Lab/LD must see sense

  10. Vince

    Boosh – is that flake or ready rubbed

  11. Interesting that Miliband out talking about not voting for the SNP, presumably because he was in Glasgow, however the risk for Labour is that this triggers more conversation about Labour and the SNP

  12. @ rayfromthenorth

    “One of the big two has to see the light re. PR”

    That’s not going to happen until one of them starts to become seriously disadvantaged by FPTP on a regular basis, and doesn’t see the pendulum swinging back to favour them, and despite this manages to get into power needing support from smaller parties who see PR as a priority.

  13. Question on ComRes doing the exit poll.

    So far their polls have tended to show a more favourable position for the Tories than others, which have been explained by plenty of comments as “house effects”. Understood.

    My question is, do these house effects equally apply to an exit poll or will they be using a different methodology?

    (In other words, if the exit poll is wrong, is it more likely to be overstating Con than Lab?)

  14. @Geoff

    I don’t think the betting markets matter in politics. There’s too much emotion involved, and far more Tories bet on spreads anyway.

    Just my opinion.

  15. @Mikey

    “I do think Sturgeon has either been really stupid or disingenuous in all of this. By constantly baiting Miliband into agreeing some kind of deal with the SNP she has given the Tories all the ammunition they need. Was she doing this to shore up her vote in Scotland? Almost certainly. However she must have known this wold box Miliband into a corner with English voters. Had she been much more coy Miliband would have been under less pressure from the Tories.”

    Which begs the question; what is Nicola Sturgeon really up to? She’s a very clever and able politician with more than half an eye on the long game. I suspect a weak Tory led Bluekip coalition would serve her interests best.

    And she may well get it too on May 8th.

  16. @Mikey I’m not sure I understood what EM said last night. I thought I did but in his Glasgow speech today he seemed to be suggesting that voting SNP could let the Tories in — as the largest party. So is he saying he would only attempt to “go it alone” if Labour is the largest party?

  17. RAF
    I think you have a point however on the other hand bookies need to make sure the odds they offer doesnt give them undue exposure is money flows in….so if they think someone’s a favourite they need to slash their odds

  18. Was just posting the graun’s analysis, fyi. i don’t understand it, tbh, and i guess it’s not poss. to just post a link on this site

  19. Agreed Crossbar. I have felt for a while she has had ulterior motives. This is her honeymoon period. Far more testing times await Ms Sturgeon.

  20. The DKs and “may change vote” numbers on Scottish polls are still quite high.

  21. @ Geoff

    I don’t think Miliband’s position has changed, even if he keeps using different phrases to make it sound like it has.

    Essentially he won’t be doing a coalition or a C&S. But he hasn’t ruled out vote-by-vote – just said he won’t do a deal even if it meant he’d lose. This latter bit sounds grand but means very little – there isn’t a likely scenario where he could do a deal with the SNP and get in but wouldn’t be able to get the confidence of the House without one.

    It will be a very odd situation if he’s 20 short of the Tories and has got smashed in Scotland but is PM. However, that’s just the maths. He couldn’t possibly decide to let the Tories go because they got most seats – he’d get slaughtered for it by his supporters.

  22. Betting

    The seats market was way out in 2010 (bullish on blues)

  23. @ rayfromthenorth

    Boosh version of EM and the SNP….

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8wrJZa4ICg

  24. Vince

    very good genuine lol

  25. @CrossBat11 and Mikey

    I think she has played Miliband into a corner on purpose, now with Miliband saying he will never do a deal with the SNP (or words to that effect depending on wanton translation) it means that the SNP does not have to support a Labour minority government in a confidence vote, thereby forcing another GE, but in the new GE the SNP will demand a second referendum citing that both Labour and Conservatives have broken their words to the Scottish people and Westminster should be no part of Scotland’s government.

    Give AS and NS credit for playing a great tactical and strategic masterpiece. Miliband walked straight into their trap and fell for it hook, line, and sinker.

  26. Mikey, crossbat11

    “By constantly baiting Miliband into agreeing some kind of deal with the SNP she has given the Tories all the ammunition they need.”

    Of course with a minor rearrangement we have: by constantly baiting Miliband into not agreeing to any kind of deal with the SNP, the Tories have given her all the ammunition she needs.

    Who is manipulating the situation and who is taking advantage?

  27. Jack
    I agree with a lot of your post and one extension of it – the 20 seat margin which you mention is roughly around the dividing line of where I think Miliband can and cant become PM. ANy more seats short of the TOries than that and I dont think he can

  28. That should read as Crossbat.

    Geoffers007

    No he is not saying that. If the Tories are the largest party but cannot find enough allies to ensure the passing of a Queens speech then you can bet your bottom dollar Miliband will then try and form a labour minority Govt. What he won’t do is agree any concessions to the SNP to back him. So in other words he is saying to the SNP you can back me but there is nothing in it for you or you can go against us. The SNP really don’t want another election as they may take a hit for not supporting Labour and lose a fair proportion of their MPs in a second election.

  29. What about this scenario.
    NS votes for EM’s Queens Speech programme. Goes along with it. Gets “frustrated” and in say March 2016 gives in to overwhelming pressure and the “will of the people” and includes a referendum pledge in the Scottish Parliament elections manifesto. Wins a clear majority. Pushes for a vote in 2017.
    There would be no better together campaign this time.

  30. @Mikey

    If a Labour minority government how will Miliband get his 3 year tenancies, rent cap and stamp duty changes through ?

    If a Labour minority government won’t SNP and Tories make common cause on amendments to the Scotland Bill for more powers & EVEL

    Two examples of where Ed will have to deal

  31. @AdamB

    Yes, if it got to 30 it would look very weird indeed. What would happen then I know not – though actually if it got that far it would probably edge the CON/LD over the line if they got the support of right-wing others.

    FWIW I think what he said last night will have worked quite well on voters who generally don’t understand the difference between a coalition, a C&S and voting with them on confidence votes. People will take it as he won’t be propped up by the SNP. Of course doing it this way might not make him very popular if it becomes apparent he will be kept in by the SNP after all.

  32. DCON

    All very plausible, but isn’t the only instance of NS not getting full-on love from a Scottish audience when she didn’t rule out a 2016 referendum committment? Do they want neverendum?

  33. It would probably be useful if some of the folk posting about the SNP strategy had even the faintest clue about Scottish politics.

  34. She talked about changed circumstances. A manufactured crisis with the Westminster lot could do it.

  35. Ian from Lichfield – in about 2 minutes there will be a new post doing that!

    RAF – As far as I am aware the exit poll is being carried out by NOP & MORI as usual.

  36. Anthony

    Thankyou – you too are a gentleman!

  37. Couper

    This is the problem Miliband will have. I honestly don’t think he wanted to rule out a confidence and supply arrangement with the SNP but has been forced into a corner by the Tories. It will make it very hard for him to survive in office for a full term.

    The maths might still work in his favour. A Lab/Lib coalition backed by the SDLP,Hermon and Green could be greater in number than Con,UKIP and DUP. If so then it would allow the SNP and Plaid to abstain on bills that they know the Tories will vote against.

  38. @DCON

    Here’s what I don’t understand.

    The SNP and Labour manifestos are pretty similar – in fact almost identical in places. If Labour is proposes bills in respect of policies which the Scottish people largely endorsed in a general election, how does NS go about demurring from them?

    Policians always like to think people are attached to them personally or their labels when if fact people are more interested in policies. If NS stops Labour passing policies in the SNP manifesto, I think she’s in trouble.

  39. OLDNAT
    Please educate me then

  40. I don’t think the bookies were particularly accurate in 2010 – 1992 – Feb 1974 or indeed 1970!

  41. @DAIBACH

    the exit poll is a very different beast. It is done after voting (not sure if it is phone, web based or face to face. it is done in the key marginals. There may well be a house effect but it is unlikely to be the same as the regular house effect.

    The Sun on twitter says a 5% Tory lead but it is not clear if that is a poll to come or one from yesterday. No TND comment yet. hx

  42. RAF
    If she was minded I think she could find an austerity issue

  43. @Couper

    Why does EM have to deal? Why would the SNP vote against policies they support? It makes no sense.

    People have serious misinterpreted EM’s comments. No coalition and no C&S does not mean no conscious parallelism.

  44. Interesting tweet from TND
    “Only 5 days to go until #GE2015, and no politics on p1s of Times, Daily Mail or The Sun tomorrow. Shows just how bored we think voters are.”

    I suspect no YG Tory lead, or a tiny one at best.

  45. @RAF

    Because housing and stamp duty are devolved absolutely no reason or pressure for SNP to vote on them.

    Of course on matters effecting Scotland SNP definitely will vote and on matters that effect Scotland’s budget but they won’t vote for austerity or trident renewal.

  46. RAF

    “If Jim Murphy ends up as the parliamentary LiS party, who will be chief whip?”

    If he ends up as the only Scottish Labour MP, having said a while back that Labour would retain all its Scottish seats, it might be appropriate for him to indulge in some self-flagellation.

  47. @Couper

    I don’t think NS intends to be that parochial. Not until the Scottish Parliament elections anyway.

    Clearly, the SNP will vote against austerity and trident. But Labour will not need SNP votes for that.

  48. @ old hat
    Tempted to agree with Dcon
    Educate us, rather than simply posting that we don’t understand Scottish Politics. I do understand that the Tories will probably get 750,000 votes and maybe a couple of seats up your way, but they are “nasty” and “hated” according to your glorious leaders, NS and AS. Explain please?

  49. Perhaps old “hat” was right! Sorry!

  50. Tories may well scrape home in more marginals than forecast through tactical voting by UKIP supporters who will vote Con to keep out Labour when their candidate has no chance of winning the seat……..especially as much more UKIP support has been drawn from the right of the spectrum.

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