So far today we have had a new poll from TNS and a Scottish poll from Survation, with YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun still to come.

  • TNS’s latest poll has topline GB voting intentions of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% (tabs).
  • Survation join Panelbase, YouGov and TNS in showing the SNP lead over Labour widening in Scotland. Their latest Scottish figures with changes from March are CON 14%(-2), LAB 26%(nc), LDEM 5%(+1), SNP 51%(+4), UKIP 2%(-2) (tabs).
  • YouGov’s daily poll will, as usual, be out around half-past ten. Their figures in last night’s poll for the Sun were CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% (tabs).

964 Responses to “Tuesday polling update”

1 2 3 4 5 20
  1. Cripes. Beaten by three other posters when I was convinced I was first to the draw.

    I’m going to sulk now. Early to bed to read a couple of Villa programmes, a nice cup of cocoa, a hobnob and then, hopefully, a decent night’s kip.

  2. Panic over fellow Labour voters!!! Lol joke but seriously looks like polldrums. I’m actually more interested in Ballot Monkeys that was genuinely brilliant did anyone else watch it?

  3. Does anybody have tonight’s You Gov yet?

  4. Does anybody have tonight’s You Gov yet?

  5. Hmm that might deflate a few true blues on here.Smithy that’s four wrong uns on the bounce but Chairman RAF is willing to give you a vote of confidence.

  6. Oops, sorry for duplicate post.

  7. Roll a hard six: the important point that is Labour would not be automatically in government after a vote of no confidence. Under the law now, there would be a dissolution and a new unpredictable election. Again, I don’t see how it would be in any party’s interest to have two consecutive elections within a time interval of two or three months. That is why I believe a minority government can last for a while. Most Labour supporters are being quite frankly unrealistic if they think Ed could be PM without having a Labour plurality in the Commons.

  8. CROSSBAT11
    Cripes. Beaten by three other posters when I was convinced I was first to the draw.
    I’m going to sulk now. Early to bed to read a couple of Villa programmes, a nice cup of cocoa, a hobnob and then, hopefully, a decent night’s kip.
    ——————-
    Don’t you mean West Ham programmes?

  9. Obviously it’s another outlier not in keeping with the true position of a 6 point Tory lead leading to a majority by Election Day.

    Or not.

  10. Before tonight’s YouGov poll I thought I felt a gentle breeze on my cheek that made me think we were moving out of the polldrums. Alas, it now appears that it was just caused by a passing albatross.

  11. @RollAHardSix
    “After that Labour would be in government. ”

    Wouldn’t there have to be another election first?

  12. Slightly improved my mood following yesterday’s non-Populus polls with tonight’s You Gov but still think the general trend the last few days is in the direction of the Tories.

    Think that will continue over the next week and still have a feeling in my gut that they’ll get close to an OM.

    No statistical reason for it just a gut feeling

  13. “Early to bed to read a couple of Villa programmes”

    Surely, West Ham?

  14. “Also squabbling over why the seat was lost last time and spoiler candidates don’t help.”

    That sounds like Loughborough to me. Labour has lost this marginal. Nicky Morgan will be returned.

  15. I’m in Swanage which seems a very long way from london and the election….there are a legion of Conservative posters about in fields though no signs of any stampede of gadarene swine. There are a handful of UKIP posters and some LibDem and some Labour too in Swanage and also in Wareham – but no one talks politics…..

    It seems the principal considered effect of the conservative onslaught on the SNP as children of Beelzebub has been to make the Scots even more determined to vote for the party.

    When a self-describing party of government and of the Union pursues a course of political action which is likely if it emerges victorious to make the polity over which it wishes to govern cease to exist – we safely observe this is a crisis of its party system.

    Mr Cameron may win but by winning on these terms he will make it impossible for the Union to continue under the existing dispensation and having previously conceded a referendum when he had no need or constitutional obligation to furnish the Scottish government with one – as it was a Union matter – he will not be in a position to deny them another after 2016.

    Whoever emerges victorious from the election may now find the politics of government considerably more treacherous as a consequence. Indeed the whole tactic has only served to make unsettled the very thing the referendum last year was meant to settle.

    There is a long history of wishful thinking by political parties facing electoral nemesis – one of them is that like phoenix they will arise from the ashes of defeat. On occasionthey do; on others they don’t. The the phoenix is a mythical bird whereas the dodo was real enough but it died because circumstances enabled it to be hunted to extinction. The real and present danger for Mr Cameron and the Conservatives is they have failed to see the consequences of their actions.

    As for the election result – the facts still stand that unless the Conservatives do almost as well as they did in 2010 there is no clear or obvious path to them remaining in government.

    Perhaps in retrospect what we are witnessing was something hidden by the ‘unexpected’ 1992 result was that the 7.5% margin of Conservative victory brought such a paltry majority in seats in the HOC. In 1997 the election the scale both of labour’s victory and the LibDem tide was a flood that left a permanent mark on the UK as a political nation. That the Conservative resurgence in 2010 fell so far short was more than a commentary on the electoral system and boundaries of constituencies – it was a sign that the century of dominance the Conservative Party had enjoyed – largely built on the alliance between it and the Unionists of various hues – NI, Scots, Liberal – had come to its close.

    If Mr Cameron could not win a majority against Mr Brown it was held he could surely not lose an election against so flawed a figure as Mr Miliband. On that basis alone there’s already a case for the defence to answer and it will surely be put by Mrs May and Mr Johnson as soon as the ballots are counted.

    The Media commentariat has counted on Labour’s losing for so long and on its likely catastrophic losses in Scotland on 7th May – ditto for libDems in Scotland too – that is has altogether overlooked just how serious the political situation has become for the viability of the Conservative Party.

  16. Cameron pledge -no tax rises for five years

  17. “Most Labour supporters are being quite frankly unrealistic if they think Ed could be PM without having a Labour plurality in the Commons.”

    I am not a labour supporter, there is no such thing as “legitimacy” in our constitution. it’s all about numbers of MPs and being able to pass a budget and other motions…

  18. While it’s only one poll, it does mean the claim of Tory ‘momentum’ now relies heavily on the big Ashcroft lead. The other pro-Tory moves of recent days are MoE and Opinium/Populus show slight moves the other way.

  19. Small Labour majority?

  20. Slightly improved my mood following yesterday’s non-Populus polls with tonight’s You Gov but still think the general trend the last few days is in the direction of the Tories.
    Think that will continue over the next week and still have a feeling in my gut that they’ll get close to an OM.

    ———————————————————————————–

    If they couldn’t get an OM in 2010 with much more favourable polls I see no reason why they’d achieve one next week to be honest. Although I’d agree there seems to be a small drift to the Tories in the past week.

  21. @Albert’s Nemesis where have Labour in north west Wales gone then? I’m assured by colleagues that they’re pretty invisible in Arfon too, whereas PC are out in force (mind you the constituency party in Arfon is pretty large so they should be); unless they (Lab) fancy their chances in Conwy, Arfon and Ynys Mon were their only chances

  22. One point YG lead!! Come back home, old boy!!

    Actually, I do believe the reality may be a slight Tory lead now – most pollsters have shown movement to Cons recently and the only ones that have shown significant movement to Labour have been outliers reverting to mean.

  23. @RAF
    Marginal of <1000 vote majority at last election. I don't think it is typical and the word has gone out for support from safer seats.
    My impression is poor organisation on the ground and a bit of local infighting, and exasperation with the Green candidate.
    I don't think it is typical. The other seat I campaign in is Marginal but held by Lab. It is far more professional which is why I think incumbency might be having backroom staff for a long time.

  24. CLOUDSPOTTER

    “If Lord A is listening. Two straight Lab- Con seats in each of in the NW, West Mids, East Mids and London please.”

    Agreed. Looking at the ones he hasn’t revisited yet: Amber Valley, Warwick & Leamington, Elmet & Rothwell and Keighley.

  25. As others have commented, if it had been a Tory lead it would have been tweeted in advance. Not that I am suggesting the Sun biased at all! But has anyone seen tomorrows Sun front page? Extraordinary.

  26. @ James Peel; that’s my view too; and if one side were to lose a vote of confidence don’t the opposition have 14 days to secure one before parliament is dissolved? it’s not automatic dissolution is it? (and nor was it before FTPA)

  27. Polldrums!

    The con lead was normal variation as is tonight’s lab lead: variation around our longstanding desk heat.

    Only clearly dodgy poll recently was Lord a A’s six pointer. Newsnights “late swing spotted by Tories” (they would say that wouldn’t they?) if extant but surely be too little too late…

    So we are looking still to be on course for a no-route-to-majority for Dave; so a will-Ed-or-won’t-Ed sit down with Nicola, er, Alec scenario beckons. If they put high minded centre left/ social democratic values above independence the SNP could assist providing the UK with a government further to the left than anything we have seen since 1964.

    Will they go for it? Or will they torpedo it?

  28. I would think it would take something pretty seismic to show much change in yougov. I think they are more or less locked in to roughly even until May 7th

  29. “Most Labour supporters are being quite frankly unrealistic if they think Ed could be PM without having a Labour plurality in the Commons.”

    Not unrealistic whatsoever. It’s just how the maths works.

    It looks like Greens will get 1 seat, Plaid 3, and Respect 1 (Galloway’s seat). They’ll all vote through Ed, so 317 more votes are needed. May 2015, Electoral Forecast, Poll Observatory, The Grauniad, and Ladbrokes all give SNP+Lab above that amount. So even without the LDs (which would probably vote through Ed if Cameron can’t get a majority) they’ve still got enough votes according to most forecasts.

  30. RIVERS10

    Watched BM last week too. Its fantastic. Wish it was on nightly.

  31. CHRIS IN CARDIFF

    The Western Mail is reporting opinion polls showing PC welll in lead in Arfon and Merionydd Dwyfor, ahead of libdems in Ceredigion – ie gaining seat from libdems – but Labour pulling ahead in Ynys Mon.

  32. The possibility of 5 Tory leads in 6 polls becomes 4 in 6 – and if Ashcroft’s outlier is dismissed then 3 in 5.

    Looks like a very, very small Tory advantage going into the final week’s full polling.

  33. Graeme

    Yep the Sun front page is desperate. We can expect more of the same over the next week. Hopefully it will turn people off. I thought in these days of mental health issues affecting so many people The Sun would not be allowed to use words like ‘Loony leftie’ when referring to Brand. Its not journalism at any level.

  34. OMNISHAMBLES
    Small Labour majority?

    Is that a joke?

  35. John M

    “That the Conservative resurgence in 2010 fell so far short was more than a commentary on the electoral system and boundaries of constituencies – it was a sign that the century of dominance the Conservative Party had enjoyed – largely built on the alliance between it and the Unionists of various hues – NI, Scots, Liberal – had come to its close.”

    I do wonder if that is what historians will conclude when they look back from the far end of this century. I’ve remarked times many on the quite astonishing fact that the Natural Party of Government has only four times in the past 26 years managed to bob its head above the 40% mark in the polls, and then only briefly, and only in the most propitious of circumstances (Thatcher’s defenestration in 1990, brief post-Election victory honeymoons in 1992 and 2010 and the very depths of the worst recession in 80 years in 2008-09). I’m amazed that this fact doesn’t receive more attention because it surely signals a change of era.

    But then, what do I know about historical turning points? Two years ago, I was confidently shouting that the Coalition had ended the Great Centre-Left Schism and that I couldn’t see anything re-cleaving the centre-left. That precition turned out well didn’t it?

  36. James Peel: that is however exactly my point, In the absence of a formal coalition or confidence-and-supply agreement between Labour and the SNP, we must assume the leader of the party with the most seats in the Commons is still the person who is more likely to be able to pass laws or a budget in the Commons. DC, being the incumbent PM, has to be the Queen’s first choice if he has a plurality of MPs. The question then is how long his government can survive. Again, under the Fixed Parliaments Act, even failure to pass the budget wouldn’t topple the government. Only a motion of no confidence or mutual agreement of 2/3 of the MPs can do it. In either case, the outcome is a new election. Why would the SNP risk for example a summer election after winning a majority of the Scottish seats in May ? Labour for sure would urge Scots to reconsider their vote in a June or July election if DC is still PM by then. As I see it, the SNP has nothing to gain and a lot to lose. It’s better for them to try to blackmail a weak Tory government into giving Scotland more generous devolution.

  37. My editor pretty pumped up on paper review -pm to promise law that there will be no tax rises for five years.

    Gotcha

  38. John M and others

    Of course the Conservatives have been greatly hampered by the insurgency of the LibDems into ‘shire’ seats, which let’s face it ‘should’ be Tory. Give them many if not most of those LibDem seats and the picture is very different in both seat and vote terms.

  39. MBruno

    Labour and the SNP don’t need a confidence and supply deal in order for Miliband to be PM. Firstly, the SNP have said they would vote with Labour on a no confidence vote and would support a Queens Speech. Beyond that it would just be about Labour building support for different bills – with support from the SNP on some stuff, maybe the Lib Dems on stuff the Snp abstain on, and the Tories on Trident, defence etc. C&S gives a situation like this a bit more formal stability but it’s not really necessary as the SNP would find it hard to use the nuclear option of voting Labour down and letting the Tories back in.

    (And a no confidence vote under the FTPA wouldn’t automatically lead to an election – it would lead to the person most likely to command the confidence of the house being given 14 days to form a government.)

  40. The only real cause for concern for Labour would be the Ashcroft poll yesterday which appeared to be way out of sync with his Constituency ones, the ICM one showed a slightly smaller lead than the previous Con one and the Opinium one showed a narrowing from 4 points to one.

    Perhaps my gut is in need of some antacid and things aren’t as bad as I may have first feared!

  41. @catoswyn

    Yes

  42. @Sunreada

    No income tax rises maybe. Just means large indirect tax rises.

  43. @mbruno

    In a no confidence motion if Cameron cannot command a majority ie loses then the next potential PM will be invited to form a government. Cameron might choose to go before being voted down but I would not count on it. The next option would be Miliband. Until he loses a vote of confidence it does not matter how many other votes he’s lost/ or who he’s relied upon to win the ones he does (ie Tories and Trident). The government stands until a specific vote of confidence is lost or the government resigns of its own volition.

    Although the permutations are complex the conventions (even after the 2010 act – which can be repealed of course) are actually pretty straightforward. Sorry I know you’ll be disappointed!

  44. Mikey
    Graeme

    Sun headlines.

    They’re preaching to the converted though.

  45. Oh and not passing a budget might not be equivalent to a confidence motion but it would sure as hell be followed by one.

    And I tend to think we can trust that the SNP will keep their promise not to prop up a Tory government no matter what they might say about needing a deal. It would be a massive risk for them to break that promise.

  46. Chris in Cardiff
    For what it’s worth one of my friends goes to Bangor university (Arfon) and he tells me the Lab candidate has basically camped outside his halls of residence for the past three months. That’s obviously where they’ve been :)

  47. Shelts

    I think Con have a slight lead. Not by much and it can swing back to level pegging or to a slight Labour lead over the next week. Its still all to play for but I do think the Tories will have 20 seats more than Labour in the end. Where that leaves us who knows?

  48. I really do not think too many Tories got excited on the basis
    of one Ashcroft poll, I discounted it as mentioned yesterday.

    Now if Yougov tonight had shown say a 3% Tory lead,
    then I may have begun to reconsider.

    Yougov is the gold standard for me, their reputation is hard won,
    so unless this time it’s different we look about tied, unfortunately )

  49. @mbruno

    “In the absence of a formal coalition or confidence-and-supply agreement between Labour and the SNP, we must assume the leader of the party with the most seats in the Commons is still the person who is more likely to be able to pass laws or a budget in the Commons.”

    We don’t have to assume anything. By looking at the projected seats, we can see that the most likely budget to pass is a Labour budget propped up by smaller parties. The right won’t get a majority but it looks like the left could. In this circumstance where Cameron can’t pass a budget or a Queen’s Speech and Miliband can, Cameron will be essentially forced to resign.

  50. @MBruno – This is a fundamental misunderstanding – under the FTPA a lost vote of confidence does not trigger an election if a second confidence vote is held (and passed) within 14 days. I.e. if Labour and allied parties have the numbers then they can defeat Cameron in a confidence motion and establish themselves as the new government with a new confidence motion.

    Forget the pre-election bluster, politicians are not stupid and will not ridicule themselves. If Cameron can’t muster the numbers to pass a confidence motion he’ll know it and will most likely resign without forcing his government to be voted down.

    These ‘legitimacy’ arguments may be made for a month or two but parliaments are set for 5 years now and parties will soon enough get down to the job of governing and opposing.

1 2 3 4 5 20