So far today we have had a new poll from TNS and a Scottish poll from Survation, with YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun still to come.

  • TNS’s latest poll has topline GB voting intentions of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% (tabs).
  • Survation join Panelbase, YouGov and TNS in showing the SNP lead over Labour widening in Scotland. Their latest Scottish figures with changes from March are CON 14%(-2), LAB 26%(nc), LDEM 5%(+1), SNP 51%(+4), UKIP 2%(-2) (tabs).
  • YouGov’s daily poll will, as usual, be out around half-past ten. Their figures in last night’s poll for the Sun were CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% (tabs).

964 Responses to “Tuesday polling update”

1 2 3 4 20
  1. YouGov predictions? Go on then. Seeing as I got last night right, here’s a stump on tonight.

    Con 35
    Lab 33

  2. Simon K
    You’re right. But two isn’t enough to see how many seats Labour might gain in England. Those two are quite a way down the Lab target list.

    If Lord A is listening. Two straight Lab- Con seats in each of in the NW, West Mids, East Mids and London please.

  3. For me Russell Brand is usually a thought provoking listen.

    I may not often share his views, but i admire his articulacy and often
    different take on subjects.

    Like most of us he can contradict himself, that’s human nature.

  4. @Peter Ould

    You need to get two in a row to be a @Smithy. More and you’re in a league of your own.

  5. Come.on smithy, it’s probably labour every post…there is a difference between.opinion,.fact and.hope.

  6. RAF

    Agreed. Smithy is hovering just above the relegation zone after three straight defeats. We will have to start chanting ‘sacked in the morning’ if Smithy fails tonight.

  7. @RAF,

    Have at you…

    :-)

  8. Thanks RIVERS 10…

    So a small Tory lead will have no major impact. Tories may still lose less badly than Labour like in 2010 but not win a majority. Given LD major losses the coalition will not re-occur.

    This leaves Labour happily able to govern with SNP unofficial support – SNP would be happy to support broadly socialist measures as would PC and Green. SNP looking to 2016 Holyrood elections; if Labour did not deliver increased devolution imagine the results in Holyrood – a massive SNP win and full on for next independence referendum . Even with increased devolved powers it could still occur…

  9. YouGov prediction:-

    CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%

    I’ve seen nothing to suggest that today’s should be different from yesterday’s.

  10. Go smithy go

  11. My prediction is definite Labour lead, nothing has changed so statistically its time for a Labour lead

    Lab 34
    Con 32

  12. @Suffolk Jason “I’ve seen nothing to suggest that today’s should be different from yesterday’s.”

    The 3% MoE is reason enough.

  13. Con 33 Lab 33

  14. Just a few comments from a Lab canvasser that will cheer a few Con’s up.
    In the East Midlands Marginal I was campaigning in today (no names) our canvassing returns show we are well short. In general if the canvassing returns are level pegging you expect to lose because some voters are just nice to your face.
    However, before the Cons jump up and down and say we are winning marginals, there will be seats in which this is reversed.

    Interestingly it makes me think that the incumbent bonus is not necessarily for the candidate but because their infrastructure of an office for 5 years gives them better data and more resources. Also squabbling over why the seat was lost last time and spoiler candidates don’t help.

  15. Tomorrow is Labour’s “Grey Vote” day.

    Ed lined up to have lunch with Terry and June, tea with Reg Varney and supper with Frankie Howerd. Finally a nice cup of Horlicks with Kenneth Williams.

    Infamy ……

  16. I’ll go for 34/34.

  17. @DAVID True. I change my prediction to last night plus or minus MOE.

  18. omnishambles

    “Jeremy Vine will use FOUR swingometers in this year’s BBC election coverage:”

    Does the BBC have enough cardboard?

  19. 10.30 is approaching and TND has not tweeted. I have revised my view of 20 minutes ago and now feel that a Tory lead of any kind would have been deemed noteworthy by the Sun as further evidence of Tory “momentum” and thus inevitable victory on May 8.

    I therefore call a one point Labour lead (let’s say 34-33) with a 34-34 dead heat as second favourite.

  20. Ballot Monkeys is really worth watching. Hugh Dennis playing that Tory bloke
    “Urgh Scotland why are we here? They hate us and we hate them, it’s bad enough visiting the North but at least there we get the odd vote in a retirement home, here you’ve got more chance of spotting a Pine Martin”
    LOL

  21. Rivers: Miliband said he wouldn’t make any formal confidence and supply deal with the SNP, so the combined Labour+SNP+SDLP+Green seat count is relevant. I suspect the largest party in the Commons will form the government, even if it is just a minority government. With the new constitutional arrangements under the Fixed Parliaments Act, a minority government may last several months (or more than one full session ?) until it is toppled by a vote of no confidence. For starters, I doubt it would be on the SNP’s interest to join Labour into voting down a Tory government a few weeks after the GE.

  22. oldnat omnishambles

    “Jeremy Vine will use FOUR swingometers in this year’s BBC election coverage:

    Does the BBC have enough cardboard?”

    Will they be able to complete the health and safety assessment in time?

  23. @Heather

    How marginal? Without naming the seat, is the swing required by Lab more or less than 4.5%?

  24. “Nothing has changed”

    1. YouGov was probably still collecting stats for yesterday’s poll when what turned out to be a dubious letter from 500 businessmen was being taken seriously.

    2. Data has emerged today showing that economic growth – supposedly the Tories’ trump card – has halved.

  25. As no TND tweet and other polls have been ahead I put it as a tie or Labour lead, otherwise there would be claims of momentum

  26. RAF – his leaflet was good wasn’t it?! Was joking about majority of course. Polldrums

  27. RAF/HEATHER

    Good few clues there, I’ve worked it out

  28. @Ivan M. White – 10.10

    The ‘estimate’ is half the predicted growth, though based on only 45% of the results – the actual growth will rise when the final figures come in.

  29. A decline from 0.6 to 0.3 is no big deal.

  30. I am still interested in a methodological question and feel that someone (Roger Mexico? Unicorn? maybe even the Olympian AW himself) may be able to tell me the answer.

    It seems to be agreed that there are house effects and that some polls (e.g. ICM) tend to give Tory leads whereas others are more likely to favour Labour. As I see it, these differences could arise from the way the data are collected (the recruitment of the sample, the questions asked, whether it is phone or internet etc) and/or some the design of the sample and the way the data are treated after collection (the definition of quotas, weighting, the treatment of don’t knows and the likelihood to vote).

    As we are given the unadjusted data it should in theory be possible to compare the nature of the raw samples and also to apply one company’s methods to another company’s data and see what the results are. And in this way it might start to become clearer just what it is that seems to lead to these differences in the headline figures.

    At the moment I am aware of discussion of particular issues (e.g. of the effect of telephone v internet polls) and also of LTV, and Unicorn pointed out that election forecast have an analysis of which polls tend to favour which parties. However, I am not aware of anything very comprehensive. I am not asking for evidence on who is right, just on what methods tend to favour which party.

  31. prediction Con 36 Lab 34

  32. I’m guessing a Labour lead in YouGov poll tonight on the basis that if it was a Tory lead the Sun would have tweeted about it being interesting! I’d say 36% Lab 32% Tory.

  33. A little early – thought I’d nip in before all the excitement:

    On This Day in 2010 on UKPR

    Today, Wednesday 28th April, 2010, polling from ComRes showed Cons up 3% with 36/29/26, and an interesting ICM poll of Lib Dem targets. This showed Lab-LD swings of 4.5% and Con – LD of 2.5% since 2010. Worryingly for Labour, the details showed the anti Lab swing to be concentrated in Lab held seats, and implied 28 losses to Lib Dems, none from Cons.

    If the reds were looking for some solace in the real world, things just got worse. Enter Mrs Duffy, stage left……..

    @Owain commenced proceedings in the time honoured fashion –

    “I’m not convinced by such a rapid 3-point swing from LD to Con. 1 or 2, maybe, but 3 seems to be too big too fast.”

    Repeat after me; There are polls, and then there are impressions of polls.

    @Neil_ broke Rule Five of UKPR, which states ‘Never let the real world interfere with your view of the polls’, when he wrote –

    “Refreshing to hear members of public on tv saying ‘bigot-gate’ will not make any difference to their vote and it just shows Brown is human, everyone has done it.”

    Indeed. I was just calling Mrs Duffy a bigot myself, only the other day.

    @Dave P returned to an old theme, with –

    “Totally unreliable polling company in my opinion. Have these guys ever been close to what everyone else publishes?”

    Whether ComRes would be a good pollster had they shown Lab up 3%, we don’t yet know, but I have my suspicions.

    Looking back, I was slightly stunned to read this, from @William –

    “Book retailer Waterstone’s says [party manifesto] sales are up 160% on 2005, and there are still eight days to go before election day.”

    Astonishing! People actually go out and buy party manifestos! Can anyone out there suggest why they are doing this? Do they make particularly good place mats, or door stops? What’s going on here? What kind of nation do we really live in?

    @Interesting finally was interesting, with this –

    “YouGov/The Sun is polling on Bigotgate now – how much of a disaster is it for Labour’s campaign? Answers tonight.”

    The anticipation was palpable. A collective wetting of UKPR knickers. [Not sure what the collective noun for this would be. Any suggestions?]

    @Eoin Clarke kept his head, and his continence, with this –
    “the institute of fiscal studies showed the LD’s to have the most transparent mainfesto pledges on cuts.”

    Which again is yet another recurring theme.

    @Phillip JW came up with the remarkable –

    “My favourite way of estimating the situation is using the ICM polls by subtracting 3 points from Labour’s score, and adding one point to the Cons and Lib Dems score unless other polls suggest a lower score for the Cons or Lib Dems.”

    Eh? I think we should set up a competition for everyone on UKPR, entitled ‘My favourite way of estimating the situation is….’.
    Maximum 200 words, marks awarded for illogicality and inconsistency.

    Yet another repeating theme came from @Ian Kemp, with –
    “The slippery slope already has ‘greece’ on it (thats why it’s slippery !) and the dominoes are about to start falling”

    Cracking gag, but didn’t I just hear Osborne today mention Greece? It’s uncanny. I know I’m being a bit repetitive here, but everything seems just so, well, repetitive.

    Finally, @Amber Star covered what some believed was the explanation for bigot-gate, with some people thinking Brown had mistaken Mrs Duffy’s comments on immigrants ‘flocking’ to this country as being an entirely different ‘F’ word –

    “The “F” word changes the tone entirely; & I can now see why GB would have been aghast at being filmed having a pleasant chat with a woman who went on to use the “F” word about fellow EU citizens.”

    This raises the fascinating prospect of developing a list of justifications for politicians turning bad. I’ll ponder that one myself and see if Mrs A and I can draft ‘Insulting Voters – The Definitive Best Practice Guide for Candidates’.

    Meanwhile, tomorrow I head off for a lengthy journey on the ‘Road of Death’, known locally as the A87. There’s a chance my medium sized car will tumble into one of the SNP inspired potholes and never be seen again, so should ‘On This Day in 2010’ abruptly cease, you can all blame those pesky nats and their ridiculously popular policies.

    More later (or not, depending on my suspension)

  34. Ivan: although the GDP numbers were (unexpectedly) disappointing, people generally don’t care about GDP figures. What really matters to voters are more tangible things like inflation (cost of living), employment and real income.

  35. @Albert’s Nemesis – how is Albert?

  36. Newsnight will ask- Who is the man of steel? Cameron or Miliband? Not sure “man of steel” is how I’d describe either of them.

  37. People seem very pumped up tonight. Hell Yeah!
    [email protected] lively.

  38. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour have a one-point lead: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%

  39. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour have a one-point lead: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%

  40. @ Suffolk Jason

    “Man of steel” – that happens to mean Stalin …

  41. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour have a one-point lead: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%

  42. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour have a one-point lead: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%

  43. @Mbruno

    ”For starters, I doubt it would be on the SNP’s interest to join Labour into voting down a Tory government a few weeks after the GE.”

    If Labour + SNP is enough numbers wise but Labour is in second place to the Tories in seats then it is arguably in Labour’s interests to table a no-confidence motion at the earliest opportunity and call the SNP bluff. Hard to see how the SNP could do other than join Labour in bringing down the Tories, they would look ridiculous otherwise and open to accusations of a) breaking election promises and b) allowing Cameron to stay in office.

    After that Labour would be in government. They would lose some England only votes that the SNP arn’t interested in but will be kept in Government by the SNP through budgets and no-confidence motions as the SNP have for various reasons committed themeselves to keeping Labour in office.

    Labour don’t really have to do anything in return beyond what they are already planning.

    Labour would need to make a big show of their more left wing policies (which again the SNP may politically feel obligated to support) putting them in a stronger position in 2016 than currently expected, campaigning in Holyrood on a ‘look what we have done in one year at Westminster, only Labour can deliver the same in Holyrood’ line.

    Then again, who am I to advise the Labour party really…

  44. Sun Politics [email protected] 20s20 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour have a one-point lead: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%

  45. @Alec – Sources very close to him describe him as ‘deeply worried’. UKIP are taking his support on his ‘home turf’ of Amlwch and Holyhead and the colossal Plaid vote in the council elections and assembly by-election of 2 years ago seems to be firm.

    To worsen matters, he is getting virtually no external support in his (rather lack-lustre) campaign, and even the local union reps (the ones that haven’t gone to Plaid) are having trouble getting numbers out for leafleting/canvassing. The local party also seems rather thin on the ground and zombified,

  46. The Conservatives roaring ahead ;-)

  47. We all seem rather keen on that one!

  48. Oh flipping heck, I was like, 6th, wasn’t I, with that?

    It’ll be the same on election night.

  49. So much for that shift. Nothing has changed it seems.

  50. Lol – does repeating it four times make it a 4 point lead ;-)

1 2 3 4 20